Tuesday, July 20, 2021

The Stonewall Formation In The Williston Basin

Who caught this in today's daily activity report?

One well reported as re-completed:

  • 13318, 725, Cobra Oil & Gas, Stoneview-Stonewall Unit 17, Stoneview, pool: Stonewall, t4/1992; cum 284K 9/14; taken off line 10/14, and has remained off line through 5/21; according to recent sundry forms, this is one of a large group of wells deemed to be abandoned by the operator and the state is considering confiscating equipment located on the well pads.

The file report is not particularly helpful and, in fact, is rather depressing, as noted above, if I'm "reading" the correspondence correctly. I often misread things. If this is important to you, to go the source.

So, like the Madison, the Red River, the middle Bakken, the Three Forks, the Stonewall is also an oil-producing formation in the Williston Basin. I've only come across a few Stonewall wells, and most of the ones I have come across are "monster wells." But most of them are no longer producing.  

Fortunately, we have this in the January 2015 DMR Newsletter (Geo News) by Timothy O. Nesheim.

Tuesday Night Ramblings -- Nothing About The Bakken -- July 20, 2021

Many, many stories in the queue but I'm too tired tonight to post them. They will get posted tomorrow, a day late but that's fine. 

I was able to get into the pool three times today. The third time was this evening, from 8:00 p.m. to 8:45 p.m. I didn't check the temperature when I got into the pool but when I got out it was 84° according to my wife, though my phone said 82°. Whatever. Absolutely clear sky. If one looked really hard one might spot some wispy clouds crossing in front of the three-quarter moon. As the night got darker, the moon got brighter, and it seemed not so far away. It almost seemed that if Jeff Bezos and crew had wanted to fly to the moon, they could have done it.

Put your headphones one. When she starts singing, ignore the video; see if you "see" a 27-year-old sultry [fill in the blank] singing it.

I stumbled across a wonderful documentary -- Sinatra In Palm Springs: The Place He Called Home (2019). I'm not sure how much I enjoy it -- I watched the first twenty minutes but the clarity of the video is absolutely incredible, and I now have a better feeling for Palm Springs and its relationship to Las Angelinos. 

I'll go back to the documentary some time but it might be awhile. Just so much else to watch. 

I've been through Palm Springs a few times. Sort of like Santa Barbara but different, and just amazing that ordinary folks can actually live in either locale.

This is such a great country; so many places to visit; so many different places to live. 

MLB Basketball

Sixth game in Milwaukee.

Milwaukee leads the series 3 - 2 and could win the championship tonight. Leading by five points in the middle of the fourth quarter, Milwaukee has the momentum and the home court. 

One gets the feeling the crowd and the Milwaukee players can feel the win. 

With an offensive foul late in the fourth period, that might have been the tipping point.

Covid-19 Vaccinations Hit All-Time Low -- And It's A Huge Drop -- July 20, 2021

Just when I thought it couldn't get any lower, the number of vaccinations given in most recent twenty-four hours: less than 250,000.  Wow. This is an all-time low. One might assume many (most) of these vaccinations were second-dose Pfizer vaccinations. If so, that means unvaccinated folks are not showing up at all. Despite all the media coverage about the "delta" virus.

Total Doses Administered

Number of People Receiving At Least One Dose

Fully Vaccinated

Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day

Percent (B+C)/A

Percent Of Americans (>18) Considered Fully Vaccinated

Delta from day before


July 20, 2021









July 19, 2021









July 18, 2021









July 17, 2021









July 16, 2021









July 15, 2021









July 14, 2021








It would be nice if we were provided the vaccination status of those diagnosed with new infections, and "new deaths."

On another note, it appears the two best vaccines are:

  • Pfizer; and,
  • Moderna.

J&J's vaccine is getting very, very bad press.

Shortest Recession On Record -- Source -- July 20, 2021

The shortest recession on record:

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has declared that the economy exited the pandemic recession over a year ago. The semi-official arbiters of when recessions begin and end said on Monday that the recession that began in February of 2020 came to an end in April of 2020. That means the recession was already over before it was officially declared in June of last year.

By longstanding tradition, the beginning and end of recessions is decided by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER, which is itself a private organization based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Also by longstanding tradition, the committee's announcement of an end of a recession typically comes with a long and indeterminate lag. The last time around, it took until September of 2010 for the committee to recognize that the recession had ended in June of 2009.

The pandemic recession is now the shortest on record. It was so short that there is a good argument that it should not count as a recession at all. The traditional definition of a recession is “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months," which this one did not. The economy peaked in February, crashed in March, and began growing again in April. The NBER hasn't deigned to explain itself except to say the downturn was severe enough and widespread enough that it sure seemed like a recession.

One thing the NBER announcement does make clear is the fallaciousness of the widespread claims last year that Trump's alleged mismanagement of the pandemic response had hurt the U.S. economy. This was a constant refrain from the Biden campaign and the establishment media. Part of the explanation for the speedy recovery, entirely ignored by the establishment media's narrative, was that we created the recession by design by ordering businesses to shut their doors and people to stay home. And the other part was that the economy was doing so well going into the pandemic that it was able to snap back with incredible speed once the shackles of the initial lockdown were lifted.

– Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network

No Flash In The Pan -- July 20, 2021

For folks who think Jeff Bezos' flight today was a rich man's folly:
Bezos displayed scientific interests and technological proficiency, and once rigged an electric alarm to keep his younger siblings out of his room. 
The family moved to Miami, Florida, where Bezos attended Miami Palmetto High School. 
While Bezos was in high school, he worked at McDonald's as a short-order line cook during the breakfast shift. 
Jeff attended the Student Science Training Program at the University of Florida. He was high school valedictorian, a National Merit Scholar, and a Silver Knight Award winner in 1982. 
In his graduation speech, Bezos told the audience he dreamed of the day when mankind would colonize space. A local newspaper quoted his intention "to get all people off the earth and see it turned into a huge national park". 
In 1986, he graduated summa cum laude from Princeton University with a 4.2 GPA and a Bachelor of Science in Engineering degree in electrical engineering and computer science; he was also a member of Phi Beta Kappa.While at Princeton, Bezos was a member of the Quadrangle Club, one of Princeton's 11 eating clubs. 
In addition, he was elected to Tau Beta Pi and was the president of the Princeton chapter of the Students for the Exploration and Development of Space (SEDS).

He started Blue Origin in 2000 if I recall correctly. Fact check please.

I've not looked up Sir Richard Branson's background regarding his interest in space. 

Medical Knowledge

NASA has never sent an 82-year-woman into space. It would be interesting to know her degree of osteoporosis, typical in an 82-year-old woman.

Speed of the capsule just before it came to a complete stop on terra firma: 15 mph.

Automobile air bags deploy at 10-12 mph / sudden stop. Link here

Also interesting that no one complained of air sickness, nausea, or vomiting. 

No New Permits; Twelve Permits Renewed; One DUC Reported As Completed -- July 20, 2021

Costco's rotisserie chicken: update, link here


  • doses delivered by pharmaceutical companies to state agencies: 390,735,975
  • doses administered in the past 24 hours: 338,491,374
  • number of Americans with at least one dose: 186,474,836
  • number of Americans considered fully vaccinated: 161,631,676

Natural gas:

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs2311556859

No new permits.

Twelve permits renewed:

  • Rimrock Oil & Gas (8): eight Skunk Creek permits in Dunn County;
  • Petro-Hunt (4): two Mongoose and two Arsenal permits, all in McKenzie County;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 35808, loc/NC, Petro-Hunt, Hagen 144-98-12D-1-3H, 33-007-01915, Little Knife, no production data, according to FracFocus, was fracked 4/23/21 - 5/11/21; a huge frack: 18.47 million gallons of water; 93.2% water by mass;

One well reported as re-completed:

  • 13318, 725, Cobra Oil & Gas, Stoneview-Stonewall Unit 17, Stoneview, pool: Stonewall, t4/1992; cum 284K 9/14; taken off line 10/14, and has remained off line through 5/21; according to recent sundry forms, this is one of a large group of wells deemed to be abandoned by the operator and the state is considering confiscating equipment located on the well pads

ND Oil Production Up Month/Month And Year/Year; Lags New Mexico; Director's Cut Released/Posted -- July 20, 2021

The increase month/month and year/year is particularly impressive given the fact the the active rig count remains very, very low and, in the big scheme of things, very few "completed" DUCs are being reported. 

Anecdotally, what explains the strong production numbers: Many operators are bringing wells back on line that had been shut in for the past year. These were otherwise good producing wells, actively producing wells, some of them producing for several years before being taken off line during 2020. These were not DUCs, but otherwise "inactive" wells. And unlike stripper wells in the past, these were, comparatively speaking, very, very good wells. 

Folks talk about active rigs, and more recently, DUCs, but very little attention is given to "inactive" wells and why they are inactive.

Director's Cut scheduled to be released today. Link here. Tag here.

Re-posting: link here.

  • March, 2021: New Mexico jumps to second place; North Dakota falls to 3rd place
  • New Mexico: March, 2021 -- 1.154838 million bopd
  • North Dakota:
    • May, 2021: 1,127,517
    • March, 2021: 1,108,441

But from twitter:

Director's Cut -- May, 2021 -- Data

Director's Cut: posted, link here. The Director's Cuts are tracked here.

The usual disclaimer applies: in a long note like this, done quickly, there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.  

May, 2021, data. This is all preliminary data for May, 2021. When the final number is tallied (next month), it will reveal a slight increase in production numbers):

Crude price (ND light sweet):

  • today: $58.50
  • June, 2021: $63.62
  • May, 2021: $58.28
  • April, 2021: $55.35
  • March, 2021: $54.38
  • February, 2021: $49.13
  • January, 2021: $41.77
  • December, 2020: $37.70
  • November, 2020: 33.22
Crude oil production:
  • May, 2021: 1,127,517
  • April, 2021: 1,123,166
  • March, 2021: 1,108,441 (preliminary)
  • February, 2021: 1,083,554 bopd (final)
  • January, 2021: 1,147,374 (preliminary); 1,147,377 (final)
  • December: 1,192,145 (preliminary); 1,191,429 bopd (final)
  • November: 1,224,540 (preliminary); 1,227,138 bopd (final)
  • October: 1,222,871 bopd (preliminary); 1,231,048 bopd (final)
  • delta: + 4,351 bopd
  • delta: + 0.387%
Natural gas production:
  • May, 2021: 2,981,017 MCF / day
  • April, 2021: 2,949,005 MCF / day
  • March, 2021: 2,878,598, (preliminary)
  • February, 2021: 2,703,948 MCF (preliminary); 2,704,840 MCF / day (final)
  • January, 2021: 2,847,719 MCF (preliminary); 2,849,283 MCF / day (final)
  • December: 2,892,908 (preliminary); 2,888,626 MCF / day (final)
  • November: 2,887,402 (preliminary); 2,890,376 MCF/day (final)
  • October: 2,873,654 MCF/day (preliminary); 2,881,717 (final)
  • delta: +32,012 MCF / day 
  • delta: +1.1%
Natural gas capture:
  • May, 2021: 92%
  • April, 2021: 94%
  • March, 2021:  94%
  • February, 2021: 92%
  • January, 2021: 94%
  • December, 94%
  • November, 93%
  • October, 93%

Rig count:

  • today: 23 (may include non-O&G rigs)
  • June, 2021: 20
  • May, 2021: 19
  • April, 2021: 15
  • March, 2021: 15
  • February, 2021: 15 (but may include CS and SWD)
  • January: 12 (but may include CS and SWD)
  • December: 14 (but may include CS and SWD)
  • October: 14 (ditto)


  • Permitted:
    • June: 75
    • May: 46
    • April: 51
  • Completed:
    • June: 47 (preliminary)
    • May: 41 (revised)
    • April: 31 (final)
  • Inactive:
    • June:
    • May: 2,348
    • April: 2,088
  • Producing:
    • June:
    • May: 16,612 (preliminary -- NEW all-time high; 16,612 in April, 2021 [sic])
    • April: 16,395

Breaking: Biofuel Blending Back On Back Burner -- July 20, 2021

Link here.

Exclusive -- Walter Bloomber @Deltaone -- "White House delays annual US biofuel blending mandate proposal due to political concerns -- sources."

Tells me all I need to about global warming.

And with that, I'm going swimming again.

Babe Ruth Tournament Kicks Off Tomorrow, Wednesday, July 21, 2021

Link here

The Market -- July 20, 2021

The Next Best Thing -- QR Codes For Individuals -- July 20, 2021

I don't know if "network" television has it but on Hulu streaming / TV Land, something very, very interesting. Many of the ads (or "commercials") are interactive. Some ads have an icon that when accessed via the remote control will take you to a new web site. Others, and I find this much more interesting: some ads have a "QR code" embedded. So, if interested, use your smartphone to access the website of the company airing the ad. St Jude does it, making donations so incredibly very simple.

Over at the sidebar at the right I have something called "the next big thing." I haven't added much to it in the past year or so, but today, something new is added. 

I once thought it would be cool if everyone was given a subcutaneous chip immediately after birth, but it is obvious now that won't work. 

But wouldn't this be interesting: everyone is given a "QR code" along with one's social security card / number. The QR code would take one to a public / personal site for each and every individual born in the US. Whenever I posted something, my avatar would include an embedded QR code (whether one could actually see it or not). The embedded QR codes would have the "security / integrity" of NFTs. Only the "owner" could access the "public" website but the "owner" would have access to his/her entire web experience.

And, yes, the assigned QR code would eliminate the need for a physical 2" x 3" paper social security card. 

Official documents like birth certificates, marriage certificates, death certificates, automobile "pink slips," could all be maintained as NFT-documents.


Sophia and I are learning Spanish on Duolingo. Ten minutes each day. 

Paying off nicely.

More and more comments at social media sites are in Spanish. More and more of those comments I can read without using google. And in the process I'm learning more Spanish. Sort of a software "do loop."

Idle Rambling -- Can't Get Enough -- The Christmas Tree Edition -- July 20, 2021

I don't care for ...

... let me start over ...

I have a love/hate relationship with CNBC. When I'm most cynical, I refuse to watch CNBC and I've mentioned often that I've quit watching CNBC forever. And then I find myself going back to CNBC

The best two hours on CNBC if you have to watch it: 8:00 to 9:00 CT, Squawk something or other, and then Fast Money, 4:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. CT. I'm on the fence whether Jim Cramer's Mad Money is the third best business hour on TV. But I digress.

Think of every talking head on CNBC as a Christmas tree. Some of the Christmas trees are really, really quite interesting: Joe Kernen, Jim Cramer (when he's on his meds), David Faber, Steve Liesman, Bob Pisani, Carl Quintanilla, Rick Santelli (I just noticed that these are all men; I've gone through the talking head list again and still can't find a woman I would add to this list; the women are pretty much "readers/presenters"; the men listed are pretty much analysts in their own right). 

Each of those Christmas trees add new baubles to their branches every day, and remove some of the baubles from earlier episodes. But everyday, these talking heads / Christmas trees have a moveable feast of ornaments. 

On that list, my least favorite tree is Steve Liesman, but even though I may not like the tree, I watch the ornaments closely, the ornaments Steve takes down each day and the new ones he puts up each day. Even if I don't care for the tree itself, I can learn something from the baubles. and today he was brilliant regarding the ten-year treasury yielding 1.15% or whatever it was (previously posted). 

Rick Santelli, Bob Pisani, and David Farber never let me down. Always attractive firs among the Christmas trees.

Can't Get Enough

One hour long loop: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uq-cxNaa8hs. Unfortunately no video.

The video that is impossible to not watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s37x2VSZrLw

My wife disagrees: she cannot stand Arianna Grande. My wife is a Pelosi Democrat. I am not.

The Spam Craze -- What's Going On? July 20, 2021

Earlier todayon Shepard Smith tonight -- the craze in Spam! What's going on? Quick: who owns Spam. By the way, I reported some months ago there was a Spam shortage -- even Costco had a sign at the door telling customers they were sold out. 

In anticipation for Shepard Smith's report, let's see what's already out there.

From that last article:

A lot of people make fun of SPAM, but it is actually a popular food.

SPAM is a fully cooked meat, so it can be eaten directly from the can without any heating.

This canned pork product debuted in 1937 but really gained notoriety a few years later due to the demand posed by World War II.  

SPAM is particularly popular in certain tropical areas such as Hawaii, Guam, and Puerto Rico. Honolulu even has a SPAM day with a parade. When the pandemic hit and many governments reacted with a stay at home order, people began to experience food shortages. SPAM experienced a 70% jump in sales in the winter and spring of 2020. This kind of increased demand is nearly impossible to keep up with, at least not in the short term. Hormel, the company that makes SPAM, put out a news release in September saying customers could possibly experience shortages.

The company explained that some of the meat processing plants where Hormel gets its pork had to shut down for various amounts of time because of health concerns related to the virus. The company has promised its customers to look into ways to increase the production of SPAM and prevent any future shortages.

Let’s hope that the lockdowns don’t last very far into 2021 and further shortages don’t materialize so that people can eat SPAM whenever they want.

Can't wait to see Shepard Smith's report tonight, although I'll probably miss it. [Later: saw the Shepard Smith report: a disappointment. Nothing new and a re-hash (no pun intended) of the above.]

If you go through the top ten list at babbletop.com, it's easy to see why Spam is in a class by itself and sitting at #1. 

Quick, pop quiz: of the top ten list above, why is Spam #1? There is one simple reason and it's taught in every "Econ 101" class in college.

Talking Their Book -- I Don't Believe Either One Of Them -- July 20, 2021

Talking their book; I don't believe either of them: Riyadh and Moscow claim biggest wins from OPEC+ deal. Yeah. After the deal, oil plummets 7% -- one of the biggest one-day drops in the price of oil. Ever.  The link is to a Rigzone article. 

  • the real winner: UAE. China. Possibly US consumers. 
  • yet to be seen: how Iraq, China, and Iran see this deal.

You know, as bad as the news seems to be in some arenas: we can all be thankful --

  • Germany did not prevail in WWII;
  • the Vietnam war finally ended: US casualties -- 58,220 (link here)
  • number of Americans directly affected by each single death: 582,200;
  • we did not wake up to "another 9-11" today
  • the Bezos launch and recovery went absolutely perfectly
  • a meteorite did not wipe out humanity overnight 

Europe: many of us can also be thankful we don't live in Europe today where the cost / price of European power has "jumped." With gas, coal and CO2 prices rising and a heat wave boosting demand, electricity in Spain will today cost €101.8 per MWH, second highest ever. Germany, France, and UK to face unusually high prices, also. -- Javier Blas -- Twitter.  Link here.

CO2: a reader sent me this tweet -- has anyone calculated how much CO2 that the Jeff Bezos rocket just emitted for a two-minute billionaire joyride? How many Ford F-150s would have to drive how far to equal the same CO2 output? My reply:

Some CO2 is different than other CO2. CO2 from Texas is perfectly acceptable.

California, not so much.


Hypocritical: already I'm seeing re-tweet replies "suggesting" that "Blue Origin's New Shepard rocket is fairly clean compared to other launch vehicles." LOL From livescience. Livescience is missing the point. It's not that the New Shepard rocket is "...fairly clean compared to...." it's the fact that this was seen by many as a joyride for elite billionaires. They've test flying this rocket since 2012, I was told. Fact-check, please. 

Fairly cleaned compared to ...: from the same folks who tell us that the Portland, OR, protests are "for the most part, peaceful" and to the Ford Theater manager said that except for one short interruption, the play, for the most part, was successful and uneventful (April 14, 1865). 

Toyota bails: pulls all ads previously planned for the Tokyo 202One Olympics. NBC is going to take a bath. Link here. My hunch: CNBC won't be reporting the business side of the de-Olympics. Defund the Olympics? 

And with that I need to go swimming.

Re-Posting The Recent MDU Natural Gas Pipeline Story -- July 20, 2021

First, from June 3, 2021:


  • MDU pipeline: FERC certificate for ND natural gas pipeline project; press release;
  • WBI Energy, the pipeline subsidiary of MDU;
  • North Bakken Expansion project
    • expansion project to transport 250 million cubif feet of natural gas per day from the Bakken
    • 62 miles of 24-inch natural gas pipeline
    • 20 miles of 12-inch natural gas pipeline
    • a new compressor station
  • $260 million
  • 260/82 = $3.2 million / mile of pipeline
  • entry: new Elkhorn Creek compression station, southeast of Watford City
  • runs pretty much NNE to Portal, ND, on Canadian border
  • map at this link; previously posted;
  • by the way, this was huge; see SeekingAlpha note;

Now, this update, from July 19, 2021:

MDU press release, link here. I believe this project may have been "fast-tracked" with the assistance of North Dakota's senators and congressman.

BISMARCK, N.D., July 19, 2021 -- WBI Energy, Inc., a subsidiary of MDU Resources Group, Inc., began construction this week on the North Bakken Expansion project in northwestern North Dakota.

This natural gas pipeline expansion will have capacity to transport 250 million cubic feet of natural gas per day from the Bakken Formation. WBI Energy received a notice to proceed on July 8 from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, allowing construction to commence.

"WBI Energy transports more than 50% of the natural gas produced from the Bakken. This project will bring WBI's total pipeline system capacity to more than 2.4 billion cubic feet per day while reducing natural gas flaring in the region by allowing producers to move more gas to market. Producers have reinforced their need for this additional capacity by committing to long-term transportation contracts with WBI," said David L. Goodin, president and CEO of MDU Resources. "We appreciate the support from state and federal officials who helped elevate the significance of this project for both its environmental and economic benefits."

The North Bakken Expansion project includes construction of approximately 63 miles of 24-inch natural gas pipeline and 30 miles of 12-inch natural gas pipeline, as well as a new compressor station and additional associated infrastructure. It is estimated to cost $260 million and, during peak construction, is expected to employ up to 450 people. WBI Energy expects to have the pipeline in service by the end of the year.

Covid-19: Louisiana -- July 20, 2021

Director's Cut scheduled to be released today. Link here. Tag here.

Covid-19: the state to watch - Arkansas. But today, we'll look at Louisiana.

Covid-19: among the 57 states, the most interesting set of graphs today -- Louisiana.


Space: The Next Frontier -- Bezos Vs Branson -- July 20, 2021

SPCE dropped another 7% in early trading today: dropped $2.09; dropped 6.2%; trading at $30.38. The chart below, SPCE was trading at $33.

For the archives: July 20, 2021.

From July 14, 2021:

From ZeroHedge:

But, on the other hand, billionaire Richard Branson says he and Virgin Galactic are opening space for *everyone*: 
“Imagine a world where people of all ages, all backgrounds, from anywhere, of any gender, or any ethnicity have equal access to space. And they will in turn, I think inspire us back here on Earth." 
All ages, all backgrounds, from anywhere, of any gender, or any ethnicity who happen to have $250,000 to waste on a day-trip that is.

Anyone who caught the video of Virgin Galactic know that the five-minute ride near the "edge of space" is a complete waste of money. And a complete waste of time. 

A limosine takes you out to the "plane." You walk on in street clothes. You take off, fly to altitude, launch from altitude, mach 2 to near 50,000 feet, experience weightlessness and then return to the airport.

All Things Considered -- The Spam Edition --- WTI Continues Its Free-Fall -- No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- Director's Cut Scheduled To Be Released Today -- July 20, 2021

First things first: on Shepard Smith tonight -- the craze in Spam! What's going on? Quick: who owns Spam. By the way, I reported some months ago there was a Spam shortage -- even Costco had a sign at the door telling customers they were sold out. 

December 26, 2020.

September 2, 2020:

Of the 1,000's of line items at Costco, our local store reported six items out-of-stock today:

  • deep / chest freezers
  • four items related to cleaning / cleansing
  • Spam


  • More than enough. Order it today, and get it by tomorrow morning, just in time for breakfast
The Canned Meat Page

I love Spam. Long story.

I thought my favorite was jalapeno spam. That changed today. New favorite: hickory smoke Spam.

Going Up The Country, Canned Heat

Back to Serious

This is absolutely incredible. We don't get these opportunities often. I hope long-term investors are paying attention. 

Oil prices inch even lower following devastating seven percent single-day loss. -- Oilprice.

Ten-year treasury: 1.136%. Absolutely fascinating. There are a lot of indications that Jay Powell is threading the needle, as they say. Sometime down the road there will be more discussions regarding the recent surge in prices: all "increase in prices" is considered inflation, but all inflationary events are not "created equal." Steve Liesman couldn't explain it, but then said he could make a case for 2.25%. Suggested reasons for the 1.136%:

  • fear: some feel the delta variant will significantly slow down the economic recovery;
  • bullish: some feel that Jay Powell is correct -- this "inflation" is transitory;
  • money manager: many institutions have sold their stocks to lock in their gains for the year, and park their money in bonds;
  • others: thin summer trading exacerbates the move;

For investors only: hopefully everyone is paying attention.

Talking their book; I don't believe either of them: Riyadh and Moscow claim biggest wins from OPEC+ deal. Yeah. After the deal, oil plummets 7% -- one of the biggest one-day drops in the price of oil. Ever.  The link is to a Rigzone article.

Oil: from the blog on Sunday --

Reuters: sees deal as bullish. At least from Iraq's perspective. Link here.  My thoughts:

  • It seems analysts are pretty much evenly divided on whether we will see peak supply (higher prices) or peak demand (falling prices). 
  • OPEC talking its book. Of course, OPEC says supply won't meet demand in 2022 -- sees higher prices. 
  • Market on Monday will tell us what analysts think. Bears will focus on 400K/daily increase. Bulls will counter that this doesn't begin until May, 2022. My hunch: the bears win. Watch for oil to trend down this week
  • Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will not do well with $60 oil. Even $70 oil is not all that good for Saudi Arabia. Someone should run the Saudi Aramco numbers to see price of oil required to cover that $75 billion dividend. By the end of 2024, Iraq should pretty much be owned by China. Western oil companies pulling out.

Oil: that was right on target. LOL. Although I think I was wrong regarding the "start" date. I believe the start date is next month, August, for increased production, at 400K bopd. Oil prices inch even lower following devastating seven percent single-day loss. -- Oilprice.

What's worse: dying of thirst or long-term exposure to manganese. Asking for a friend. From The LA Times:

Rick Daniels lies awake at night worrying about a rusty contraption in a forlorn field littered with discarded pipes and fire hydrants. Across California and the West, the current drought is causing many wells to dry up, but few other communities are looking at their single water lifeline going to zero.

According to Daniels, the city manager, it is the only water pump in Needles that meets state water quality standards, running 23 hours a day to keep up with demand. That’s a thin margin in one of America’s hottest cities, an urban speck in the desert near California’s border with Arizona.

If this lone pump fails, 5,000 residents face the ultimate risk of taps running dry, as temperatures soar past 120 degrees and people need to drink as much as two gallons daily — or else face dire consequences.

Historically, the city has depended on four wells that draw from the river’s nearby aquifer. That worked fine for decades until late last year when California’s water authorities notified the city that three of its wells failed to meet state standards because of a naturally occurring mineral — manganese — that affects health. A May citation found the city had violated state water law and ordered a corrective plan by the end of this year.

But the city says it can’t afford a fix, which would include a new well for $1.5 million.

Back to the Bakken

Still to report: the NDIC has not yet updated the two wells that came off the confidential list yesterday, #35560 and #37479. It's possible I have something wrong, but according to the "confidential well list," #35560 was scheduled to come off the list on July 17, 2017; and, #37479 was scheduled to come off the list July 18, 2021. 

Active rigs:

Active Rigs2311556859

No wells coming off the confidential list.

RBN Energy: Plains/Oryx midstream joint venture creates Permian crude juggernaut.

The massive energy-industry dislocations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic forced every upstream, midstream, and downstream player to consider what it all meant for them and what they could and should do to weather the storm. A common theme emerged: management needed to delay or even jettison their plans for growth and instead focus on efficiency by cutting costs, working to maximize the revenue from every molecule, and seeking out opportunities to streamline and optimize their operations. A prime example of this push for efficiency came last week with the announcement by Plains All American and Oryx Midstream that each will contribute assets to a new, Plains-operated crude oil pipeline joint venture in the heart of the Permian’s Delaware Basin. Today, we review the plan and its rationale.

Bezos Launch — July 20, 2021

Watch live launch now.

West Texas

Moon landing anniversary.

Perfect launch; safe landing. Absolutely amazing. 

I wonder if Amazon Prime will offer flights on Blue Origin. LOL.