Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Whiting Has Two Rigs On The 15-Well Wold Mega-Pad In Banks Oil Field -- November 28, 2017

Whiting has two rigs on the 15-well Wold mega-pad in Banks oil field, section 7-153-97. Two producing Wold wells have been shut in as of 9/17. I track the Whiting Wold wells here.

Petro-Hunt State/USA Wells In Charlson 154-94-13

These are going to be some huge wells. One has been completed and is producing; Petro-Hunt has a rig on the 9-well pad now. I don't expect to see results for several months.
  • 24046, 1,661, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-2H, Charlson, t1/16; cum 336K 10/19; almost no production since10/19;
  • 24048, SI/NC-->SI/IAW, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-5H, Charlson, API - 33-053-04471; 12K over 21 days in 4/20; remains off line7/20;
  • 24049, SI/NC-->SI/IAW, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-4H, Charlson, 9K over 20 days in 4/20; none since;
  • 24050, SI/NC-->SI/IAW, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-6H, Charlson, 9K over 21 days; none since;
  • 24047, SI/NC-->SI/IA, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-3H, Charlson, 19K over 36 days as of 4/20; none since;
  • 24045, SI/NC-->SI/IA, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-1H, Charlson, 16K over 40 days as of 4/20; none since;
  • 34295, SI/NC-->SI/IAW, Petro-Hunt, USA 154-94-36D-35-3H, Charlson, 22 K over 49 days as of 4/20; none since;
  • 34294, SI/NC-->SI/IA, Petro-Hunt, USA 154-94-36D-35-2H, Charlson, 13K over 36 days as of 4/20; none since;
  • 27436, SI/NC-->SI/A, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-1HS, Charlson,  61K over 2.5 months as of 4/20; none since;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

CLR Getting Ready To Frack More Burr Federal Wells -- November 28, 2017

This is exciting. Several CLR Burr Federal wells in the Sanish are coming off-line suggesting CLR is getting ready to frack a bunch of DUCs.

See this post for the Burr Federal wells.

Grapevine, Texas, Trivia -- College Football Rankings -- November 28, 2017

Where does the College Football Playoff Selection Committee meet? Drum roll.....Grapevine, TX. Top four (4) teams will be revealed live in "minutes" on ESPN. Here they are, apparently right now, but will be affected by this weekend's game:
1. Clemson
2. Auburn
3. Oklahoma
4. Wisconsin
5. Alabama
6. Georgia
2 v 3
1 v 4

I don't follow this stuff, so I'm not sure exactly how this all works but this is what I took away from ESPN while talking to our younger daughter on the phone on a different subject. Here's another link, one hour old, 8:00 p.m. Central Time, November 28, 2017.

Wow, How Do I Miss These?

This video has been posted for quite some time, but tonight was the first time I found it. How do I miss these?

Oasis Has Three Rigs Working One Drilling Unit -- The Sanish -- November 28, 2017

The oldest well in the graphic:
  • 17582, 1,019, Oasis, Mimir Uran 11-11H, Sanish, cased hole, 1.6 million lbs, t11/09; cum 193K 9/17;
This one will be fun to watch when the six new wells are fracked.

By the way, are you curious about the production profile of #17582 (drilled in 2009) when #24166 was fracked in May, 2013?

Here's the production profile of #17582 when #24166 was fracked (increased production lasted until the end of 2016):


The Political Page, T+311 -- November 28, 2017 -- Conniptions Over At The Office Of Pocahontas

Trump wins another one. The "court" rules that Trump's pick can run the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Pocahontas is having conniptions.

Got lost on the way to the forum?

Trump rally. I happened to see a bit more financial news today than I usually do. I heard only one person (moderator on Fast Money, CNBC) mention the phrase "Trump Rally" at the top of the show.

For those keeping track of the Dow records set this year, here's the update.The Dow has set 77 new record closing highs since the 2016 presidential election.

So Very Politically Incorrect

WTI Down Slightly -- November 28, 2017

US crude oil reserves: with regard to re-balancing, I use the EIA weekly data that comes out on Wednesdays instead of API data. It seems EIA data and API data are "worlds apart." Having said that, it's always interesting to look at the API weekly data. Again, for newbies, for re-balancing, we are looking for a drawdown of US crude oil reserves on a weekly basis. [Update: EIA data has been posted.]

So, what did API data show today? API forecast a draw of 2.5 million bbls. In fact, US crude oil reserves ROSE by 1.821 million bbls. Not good for those hoping to see a drawdown in US crude oil reserves.
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs553764184191

Five new permits:
  • Operator: Newfield (5)
  • Field: Sand Creek (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Newfield has permits for a 5-well permit in SESE 32-154-96.
Producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: None.
Two permits renewed: both were salt water disposal wells.

On Another Note

I had not planned on posting this note -- too much data -- but the last sentence in the fourth paragraph is a huge data point. The article was sent to me by a reader. From oilprice.com, US to continue increasing crude oil exports to Asia.
US crude oil exports to Asia last week hit the highest in two months, and the second-highest on record, at 877,000 bpd.
The biggest buyer of U.S. crude in Asia was South Korea, which took 357,000 bpd of last week’s exports. China came in second, importing 222,000 bpd of U.S. crude, and India completed the top three, buying 151,000 bpd of U.S. oil last week. Indonesia imported 99,000 bpd from the United States, and Japan imported 47,500 bpd. The average daily export rate for U.S. crude to Asia stood at 470,330 barrels over the first three weeks of November.
This trend must have given OPEC a serious headache, although its members are still sending substantial amounts of crude to Asian clients. Saudi Arabia exported an average 1.2 million bpd to Japan, 856,000 bpd to South Korea, and 687,000 bpd to China.
Iraq sent over 730,000 bpd to India, almost 500,000 bpd to China, and over 400,000 bpd to South Korea. Other OPEC members are also sending much of their oil to Asia, but a worry is starting to creep up that U.S. exporters are undermining other players’ market share, benefiting from the discount at which WTI trades to Brent.
And with the DAPL, Bakken light, sweet oil is very, very competitive with Mideast oil going to Asia.

WTI - Brent Spread

First, a "lesson" -- from Forbes, October 20, 2017.
Daily spread here -- ycharts.

Recession: A Near Certainty By 2020 -- Morgan Stanley -- November 28, 2017 -- The Energy And Market Page, Part 2, T+311

From Reuters via Twitter: 
JUST IN: OPEC and non-OPEC committee back extension of crude oil supply cut until the end of 2018 with an option to renew in June
Interpretation: a six-month option since it will be reviewed in June. Previous extension went to March, 2018, so this is simply a three-month extension to June, with another review then.

Raining on Trump's parade: the short-term, long-term Treasury curves are flattening. This is what it means to some people:
A flattening yield curve spells trouble for banks, which generate money from the gap between long-term loans and short term deposits. So it’s no surprise that financial stocks have trailed the S&P 500 this year.
Finally, an inverted yield curve has predicted the past 7 recessions. Flattening isn’t the same thing as inverting, but it is one step closer. Morgan Stanley notes that “we are not on recession watch now, and peg the 12-month probability of recession at 25% … [but] by 2020, that probability grows to near certainty.”
Something for Jay Powell to manage.

Dollar become scarce overseas. If firms don't have access to the US dollar, their growth is challenged. From The Wall Street Journal.
It is one of the ironies of the global financial crisis: A decade later, a panic whose origins were in the U.S. has left the dollar more important to the rest of the world than ever before.

Putative contenders for its throne—the euro, the Chinese yuan—have failed to gain global acceptance. It remains the dominant force in world trade. A slow, yearslong decline in the proportion of dollars among the holdings of the world’s central banks, which were trying to diversify, has stopped. And the commercial banks of Japan, Germany, France and the U.K. now have more dollar-denominated liabilities than those in their own currencies.

The dollar dominance is testing the world again: Rules designed to make finance safer have already made dollars harder to come by. To add to the pain, the Federal Reserve is now sucking dollars out of the world’s financial system as it tries to tighten its monetary policy.
Those commenting suggest there is nothing to worry about.

GDP now: Latest forecast: 3.4 percent — November 22, 2017.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.4 percent on November 22, unchanged from November 17.
After this morning's advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast of real nonresidential equipment investment growth inched up from 14.1 percent to 14.2 percent and the forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter GDP growth inched down from 0.06 percentage points to 0.02 percentage points.

Update On Well Design By Pioneer Natural Resources -- Filloon -- November 28, 2017

The summary over at SeekingAlpha:
  • Pioneer continues to improve well design, and this is being seen across the Permian and Eagle Ford
  • Pioneer's Midland acreage continues as its true core, but recent Eagle Ford locations in Karnes and DeWitt have also done well
  • when looking at Permian results, it is important to watch improvements across intervals as each produce differently
  • Pioneer continues to be one of the operators we really like based on geology and improving well results
Oil type curves are provided but almost no information about well design.


The Market And Energy Page, T+311 -- November 28, 2017

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Wow, wow, wow: ENB stated that it has struck an accord with the State of Michigan to replace the aging Line 5 pipelines. The pipeline traverses along the bottom of a channel between Lakes Huron and Michigan. Track pipelines of interest here (though infrequently updated). 

The decision process at the Fed, putting the cart before the horse: a) flip a coin -- heads, raise; tails, raise; edge, lower; falls off table, hold steady; b) "make a case" for the decision. Don't you just love this headline? The decision has been made for a rate hike in December; all that's left to do is write the press release and memo for Congress:

Mr Market must be happy: the Dow is up over 150 points.

The markets: at open, all three major indices hit new highs.

RDS-A/B: up 3% today. Whoo-hoo. From Yahoo!Finance --
Looking at Royal Dutch Shell plc’s earnings update in September 2017, analysts seem extremely confident, with profits predicted to ramp up by an impressive 53.09% next year, relative to the previous 5-year average growth rate of -26.41%. Currently with earnings of $4,575M, we can expect this to reach $7,004M by 2018. 
Also this:
Shell boosted its outlook for free cashflow by $5 billion and axed a plan to pay dividends in new shares are the company's balance sheet continues to improve with global crude markets.
Pioneer Natural Resources: surging earnings estimates. Whoo-hoo.

TransCanada: regardless of the Keystone XL - will raise dividend. Whoo-hoo.
TransCanada Corp. reaffirmed forecasts for profit and dividend growth a week after a Nebraska regulatory decision left the fate of the company’s $8 billion Keystone XL pipeline megaproject clouded. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization will grow at an average annual rate of about 10 percent between 2015 and 2020.
TransCanada also held firm to plans to lift its dividend at the upper end of its projected 8 percent to 10 percent range, and extended that outlook by an additional year through 2021.
Who wudda thought? Wendy's owns 18.5% of Arby's and Buffalo Wild Wings will now become part of Arby's. Wendy's will make nearly $450  million on the transaction. Whoo-hoo.

North Dakota -- Bobcat: from The Dickinson Press --
Even a year ago, while Bobcat was making small implements in its Bismarck manufacturing facility, there was a lot of open space, said plant manager Dean Kuhn.
But since firing up a new production line for compact excavators earlier this year, a larger portion of the manufacturing floor is back in business, with the capacity to grow even further should demand warrant it.
Earlier this year, the excavators were brought back as a result of increased demand for the company's "next generation" line and a subsequent need for more production space to meet that demand.
The Procter and Gamble Page

From a biography of Alan Turing,
Perhaps of all the elite American universities, Princeton was the most self-contained, insulated from the squalor of the depression. One could look out and never know that America had a problem. In fact, it hardly looked like America at all, for with its mock Gothic architecture, its restriction to male students, its rowing on the artificial Carnegie Lake, Princeton tried to outdo the detachment of Oxford and Cambridge. It was the Emerald City in the Land of Oz.

And as if the isolation from ordinary America were not enough, the Graduate College was separated off from the undergraduate life, to stand upon its gentle prominence, overlooking a clean sweep of fields and woods.

The tower of the Graduate College was an exact replica of that of Magdalen College Oxford, and it was popularly called the Ivory Tower, because of the benefactor of Princeton, the Procter who manufactured Ivory Soap.

Princeton was insulated from the rest of the world, and at Princeton, the Graduate College was separated off from the undergraduate life. But that was not even enough for the Princeton elite: they had built a tower that was separated even from the Graduate College, and thus the Ivory Tower WAS the ivory tower.
The Literature Page

I will check out the biography of Siegfried Sassoon now that I've completed the basic oultine.

Will start to read these next:
  • The Making of Middle Earth: A New Look Inside the World of J.R.R. Tolkien, Christopher Snyder, c. 2013
  • Sissinghurst: Vita Sackville-West and the Creation of a Garden, Vita Sackville-West & Sarah Raven, c. 2014

Wells For The Past Week Have Been Reported; Whiting With A Huge Well -- November 28, 2017

Finally, the wells coming off the confidential list starting one week ago, today, have been updated. Observations:
  • over seven days, seventeen (17) wells came off confidential list
  • all but four (4) were DUCs (SI/NC)
  • the completed wells used "moderate" amounts of sand
  • Whiting had a huge well in Truax oil field, over 121K in less than four months
Tuesday, November 28, 2017: 61 for the month; 102 for the quarter
  • 33061, SI/NC, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5C, Lost Bridge, no production data,
Monday, November 27, 2017: 60 for the month; 101 for the quarter
  • 33060, SI/NC, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5D, Lost Bridge, no production data,
  • 31718, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Leo E-154-94-2423H-10, Alkali Creek, no production data,
Sunday, November 26, 2017: 58 for the month; 99 for the quarter
  • 31717, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Leo E-154-94-2423H-10, Alkali Creek, no production data,
  • 31368, 1,818, Whiting, Evitt 14-12H, Truax, 4 sections, 37 stages; 9.3 million lbs, t6/17; cum 121K 9/17;
  • 33059, SI/NC, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5D, Lost Bridge, no production data,
  • 33058, SI/NC, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5H, Lost Bridge, no production data,
  • 27079, 422, Oasis, Hanover Federal 5300 44-11 5T, Willow Creek, Three Forks B1, 50 stages; 10.1 million lbs; t5/17; cum 68K 9/17;
Saturday, November 25, 2017: 54 for the month; 95 for the quarter
  • 33273, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Leo E-154-94-2423H-12, Alkali Creek, no production data,
  • 33118, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Sabrosky 145-97-27B-34-4H, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 31907, 616, Whiting, Obrigewitch 24-9PH, Bell, Three Forks, 45 stages; 6.4 million lbs, t5/17; cum 39K 9/17;
Friday, November 24, 2017: 51 for the month; 92 for the quarter
  • 25844, SI/NC Slawson, Periscope Federal 7-10-11-12TF, Big Bend, no production data,
Thursday, November 23, 2017: 50 for the month; 91 for the quarter
  • 33181, SI/NC, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H04, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
  • 31463, SI/NC, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-36C-25-9H, McGregory Buttes, producing, albeit very little;
  • 31439, SI/NC Slawson, Periscope Federal 6-10-11-12TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 27078, 467, Oasis, Hanover Federal 5300 44-11 4B, Willow Creek, 50 stages; 10.1 million lbs; t5/17; cum 101K 9/17;
Wednesday, November 22, 2017: 50 for the month; 87 for the quarter
  • 33180, SI/NC, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-5, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
Tuesday, November 21, 2017: 49 for the month; 86 for the quarter
  • 33179, SI/NC, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-6, Beaver Lodge, no production data,

The Political Page, T+311 -- November 28, 2017

She is so correct and I love it:
“By 2040, about 70% of Americans are expected to live in the 15 largest states. They will have only 30 senators representing them, while the remaining 30% of Americans will have 70 senators representing them,” MSNBC producer Kyle Griffin tweeted over the weekend.
Actually, it's even better than that. Most of those living in the "largest" states will be living in the urban centers in those states. But it's a nice soundbite that can be easily remembered: "70 - 30."

She sees this as a threat to democracy; I see quite the opposite.

This is exactly what the Founding Fathers were concerned about when writing the constitution -- that the less populated rural areas were not marginalized. That's why the US is a republic, not a pure democracy.

California Mandates 10% Of Parking Spaces To Have Charging Units

Link here.

That pretty much completes the picture for parking as mandated in California:
10% charging spots for EVs
10% handicapped parking
10% for government vehicles
10% for take-out orders from restaurants
10% for Raiders fans
10% for Governor Jerry Brown's supporters
10% for illegal immigrants without drivers licenses
10% for car pool drivers
10% for designated drivers
10% for Native Americans
I guess I'll have to buy a Raiders' jersey.

Yes, We Have No Bananas -- November 28, 2017

Two days ago our daughter took Sophia to Walmart to buy bananas. For the first time ever, as far as she could recall, Walmart was out of bananas. The racks were empty, and the boxes below the racks were empty. Absolutely no bananas to be had.

The three stages of grief:

 Shock ("Are you kidding?")

Sadness ("Really, are you kidding?") 

Despair ("Nope, they're not kidding?")

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Map of approved route for Keystone XL: at this link Nebraska regulators vote "no" with a 3-2 "yes" vote to approve the Keystone XL. Flashback: in 2012, TransCanada submitted a supplemental environmental report for an alternate route -- this may or may not be one of the two routes on the map at the link.

Markets: all three major markets are "green" in pre-market trading. 

Mayor of London rejects fracking. Link here.
In his new draft London Plan, which will be published later this week, Khan makes clear that any application for the exploration, appraisal or production of shale gas via hydraulic fracturing in London should be refused by boroughs. 
Khan previously made his opposition to fracking clear in his mayoral election manifesto. The news follows Scotland’s decision to block fracking indefinitely.
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs543764184191

RBN Energy: US LNG export demand growth to slow in 2018.
With Lower-48 natural gas production at record highs and averaging more than 5.0 Bcf/d higher than this time last year, LNG export demand will be all the more critical this winter and the rest of 2018 in order to balance the U.S. gas market. Deliveries to Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG facility (SPL) are above 3.0 Bcf/d. Dominion Energy’s Cove Point LNG is due to add nearly 0.8 Bcf/d of export capacity and begin exporting commissioning cargoes any day now. Two other projects — Elba Island LNG and Freeport LNG — are due online before the end of 2018, while another high-capacity project, Cameron LNG, faces delays. These facilities will increase baseload demand for gas in the new year, but will it be enough, and how will it impact gas pipeline flows upstream? Today, we provide an update on the timing and potential impacts of new export LNG capacity over the next year.