Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Nothing Of Interest On Today's Daily Activity Report -- December 28, 2016

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3861173187186

Three wells coming off confidential list Thursday:
  • 29559, drl, Statoil, Heinz 18-19 6H, Patent Gate, no production data,
  • 31893, 1,523, Hess, BB-Siverston-151-95-2019H-7, Blue Buttes, 53 stages, 3.7 million lbs, t12/16; cum --
  • 32221, SI/NC, XTO, Little Pete Federal 31X-3HXE2, Bear Creek, no production data,
Absolutely nothing of interest on today's daily activity report.

Quick: Name The World's Fourth-Largest Consumer Of Gasoline -- December 28, 2016

Disclaimer: in a long note like this with a lot of numbers and a lot of arithmetic involved, there are likely to be typographical and factual errors. In addition, many of the numbers were rounded. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 


December 31, 2016: from Platts. Data points:
  • Mexico's record-low refiner production and growing consumer demand: pushed US gasoline exports there to a new high in October
  • gasoline exports to Mexico climbed 1.86 million bbls to 12.08 million bbls in October
  • the previous peak was 11.42 million bbls in December, 2010
  • Mexico is by far the largest importer of US gasoline; take 46% of the 177 million bbls of finished gasoline exported by the US in October, 2016
  • exports push the price of gasoline higher
  • outright price of Gulf Coast pipeline-delivered conventional gasoline, $1.71, highest price since August 18, 2015
  • prime reason for increased exports to Mexico: chronic underinvestment in downstream investments over the years
  • Mexico's refined product production is at its lowest point since Pemex started tracking data in 1995
  • this, despite domestic sales climbing to a record high
  • Mexico is expanding its main import terminal, the port of Tuxpan on Mexico's east coast
Original Post

Gasoline consumption by country:
This was the ranking of gasoline consumption provided by the US EIA for 2012 (population as of 2014; consumption per capita):
    • USA: 8.7 million bbls/day (325 million; 0.027 bbls/day/person)
    • China: 1.9 million bbls/day (1.4 billion; 0.0016 bbls/day/person)
    • Japan: 1 million bbls/day (127 million; 0.008 bbls/day/person)
    • Russia: 800,000 bbls/day (147 million; 0.005 bbls/day/person
    • Canada: 791,000 bbls/day (36 million; 0.02 bbls/day/person -- very similar to the US)
    • Mexico: 777,000 bbls/day (122 million; 0.006 bbls/day/person -- about the same as Russia)
    • Brazil: 530,000 bbls/day (207 million; 0.0026 -- in the same ballpark as China)
    • Indonesia: 530,000 bbls/day (260 million; 0.002 -- slightly more than China)
    • Saudi Arabia: 482,000 bbls/day (33 million; 0.015 -- half that of the US)
    • Germany: 427,000 bbls/day (82 million; 0.005 -- same as Russia?)
    • India: 368,000 bbls/day (1.3 billion; 0.0003 -- half as much as Mexico)
That was 2012.

Now, in 2016, what country was #4? Hint: it borders the US.

Hint it isn't Canada.

Mexico, in 2016, has leap-frogged / lept-frog (?) to the fourth position.

Mexico imports as much as 960,000 bbls/day from the US, almost equal to Japan's consumption back in 2012 which suggests to me that by this time next year, Mexico could be in 3rd place, just a hop, skip, and a jump from US refineries in Texas and Louisiana.

If President Trump doesn't get help from Mexico to build "that wall," he could easily increase the tariff of gasoline -- a value-added tax -- going south, but keeping the tariff less than the cost of transporting gasoline from Europe. Oh, there are so many things to think about. President Trump will probably put Rick Perry in charge of this.

Just Out Of Curiosity

Consumption of gasoline per capita: Texas vs California? 2014:

Texas: 316,378,000 bbls for the year year; population: 26.96 million -- 0.032 bbls/day/person
California: 348,451,000 bbls for the year; population: 38.8 million -- 0.025 bbls/day/person

A Torch Kept Lit: Great Lives of the Twentieth Century
William F. Buckley, Jr
c. 2016

An anthology of 50+ eulogies of great Americans by William F. Buckley

The first eulogy: Dwight Eisenhower

It begins:
During his lifetime he had his detractors. There are those who oppose Dwight Eisenhower because he was the man who defeated Adlai Stevenson.
In their judgment it was profanation for anyone to stand in the way of Adlai Stevenson. And so, when Eisenhower was inaugurated, they took up, and forever maintained, a jeremiad on America the theme of which was: America is a horrible country because a banal and boring general with not an idea in his head gets to beat a scintillating intellectual who is in tune with his the future.
The Geo-Political Page

For the archives, the foreign policy bookends of the Obama administration:
In the Obama administration's waning days, global challenges to American interests abound. In Syria, which will be a bloody stain on the reputations of Barack Obama and John Kerry, the killing continues. The effort to free Mosul from ISIS is slowing. The rise of Iranian influence in the Gulf and the Levant, of China in Asia and the western Pacific, and of Putin's Russia in both Europe and the Middle East, all continue. One might have thought any of these could be the subject of a final address by the president or the secretary of state.
But one would have been wrong. John Kerry delivered what is probably the last major speech of the Obama administration Wednesday, and its subject was the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and especially the growth of Israeli settlements. So the Obama administration ends where it began: obsessed with Israelis and Palestinians as if their struggle were the key to peace in the entire region, and with construction of homes in settlements and in Jerusalem as if it were the major roadblock to a peace agreement.
Secretary of State John Kerry's final Mideast speech in which he summarized the problems in the Mideast and the biggest obstacle precluding peace in the region: Israel building settlements on a former kibbutz. 

The speech was given on the twenty-eighth day of the twelfth month of the eighth year of the Obama presidency. There are 22.5 days left in the Obama presidency.

Yesterday It Was Bats; Today It's Mule Deer; Tomorrow Grasshoppers -- December 28, 2016

From PennEnergy: Study underway to examine effects of oil exploration on deer.
  • seven-year study; $500,000
  • New Mexico
  • funding: funded by WPX Energy, and in addition to the Farmington (NM) BLM office, it’s being conducted in partnership with the New Mexico Department of Game and Fish
  • why this area of northern NM: 1,700 wells and a gazillion mule deer 
The Political Page

Trumpers have trouble selecting Secretary of Agriculture? Add to the list: Abel Maldonado. From my post where I track this stuff:
December 22, 2016: Department of Agriculture. Only two more cabinet members need to be appointed: Veterans Affairs and Agriculture. Unless she messes up her interview, Elsa Murano is likely to be his top choice for Agriculture. [December 28, 2016, LA Times is reporting that Trump is now adding former California lieutenant governor to the list]. Trump cannot afford to be first president since Reagan -- 28 years -- to have no Latino in his cabinet. In addition, she was born in Cuba. She preceded Bob Gates at A&M. Bob Gates is emerging as Trump's #1 advisor. So, with Elsa, Trump does better than a two-fer; the nominee would be a three-fer: female; Latino (or more accurately, Latina); and, Cuban immigrant. How would that play in Florida looking toward 2020? 
Four on the list:

President-elect Donald Trump is considering nominating former California Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado to lead the Department of Agriculture.
Trump and Maldonado will meet Wednesday at Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, where Trump is spending the holidays, according to transition spokesman Sean Spicer.
He also is considering a trio of Texans for agriculture secretary: the state’s agriculture commissioner Sid Miller, former Texas agriculture commissioner Susan Combs and former Texas A&M president Elsa Murano. Murano also will meet with Trump Wednesday.
Maldonado, a Santa Maria native who is the son of Mexican-American farm workers, was lieutenant governor from 2010 to 2011. He was a state legislator representing a swing district and is considered a moderate.
Wow, that raises the ante: from a female, Latina, from Cuba, in a red state to a male, Latino, son of a Mexican-American farm worker, in a blue state. Puts California in play in 2020. 😀

Read more here:

John Kemp Sees Mild Weather In US; Oilprice Sees Unexpected Cold Weather Across The US -- December 28, 2016

John Kemp's tweet 28 minutes ago (about 11:00 a.m. Central Time):
U.S. mild weather persisted through Christmas and afterwards with heating demand well below average for the time of year.
Meanwhile, over at
Natural gas prices are surging as cold weather eats into U.S. inventories, tightening the market much more quickly than many analysts had expected.
The blast of Arctic weather in December put a strain on natural gas markets, with millions of people cranking up the heat to keep warm.
The EIA reported a surprise drop in storage levels in the week ending on December 16, 2016, falling by 209 billion cubic feet. That decline puts total storage levels at 3,597 Bcf, or just a small 78 Bcf above the five-year average.
But at least we all know that due to manmade global warming, the earth will be 0.231 degrees warmer 97 years from now. 

Global Warming Stories Linked at Drudge Today

Claim: 100% of USA "warming" due to NOAA data tampering
First week of 2017: record cold, 48 states below freezing
Blizzard: blizzard to bury New England under feet of snow

Flotek Responds -- Rigzone -- December 28, 2016

This is a hard story to follow -- at least I had difficulty following it -- due to all the players involved, the acronyms, abbreviations, and concepts. But it appears to be a fairly important story with a number of interesting data points. For my use only; don't quote me on this. I'm sure I've made many mistakes interpreting this article. If this is important to you, go to the source. I "write" this out to make sure I actually stay focused on the article, which seemed complicated but then made more sense as I kept slogging through.

From Rigzone yesterday: Flotek refutes study finding; Flotek says the oilfield is its biggest lab. Data points:

  • Flotek apparently recently released a new study, testing its Complex nanofield Technology (CnF)
  • FourWorld Capital Management LLC apparently questioned some of the results of that study, suggesting that Flotek conducts its testing in the lab and not in the field
  • Flotek responded: it takes "learnings" from the lab and applies them to real-world situations around the world, from West Texas to Alberta to the Middle East
  • MHA Petroleum Consultants' conducted the study in question on behalf of Flotek
  • So, when reading this, MHA = the study; commissioned by Flotek
  • FWC is shorthand for FourWorld Capital Management which questioned the MHA study
The MHA/Flotek study:
  • CnF's effectiveness in DJ Basin wells was surveyed
  • FWC says the study was flawed; FWC says two products containing CnF were omitted in the study
  • OilPerm FMM-1 and FDP-S1007-11 contain CnF; omitted from the study according to FWC
  • FWC says their own study included well-known factors that MHA/Flotek failed to consider: well length, operator, and location
  • OilPerm FMM-1 and FDP-S1007-11 are both Halliburton products
  • FWC says these two Halliburton products account for 22% of the 604 wells in FWC's data set
  • Flotek apparently provided this trade name (FDP-S1007-11) to MHA for the studies in Texas conducted six months later
  • FWC: "when adjusted for operator, location, and well length, we conclude the estimated impact of CnF on production cannot be distinguished from zero relative to non-CnF wells"
  • interesting study results presented
  • FWC says CnF usage dropped from 61% in 2014 to 19 percent in 2016
  • FWC used FracFocus water volume data to determine market penetration of CnF usage in 2016 compared to 2016
  • FracFocus is linked at "Data Links" at the blog
That's the first page of the story; now the second page. Data points:
  • a new player: Stephens Inc (StInc) is an independent financial services firm
  • StInc notes that FWC has a short position in Flotek
  • StInc suggests/says/alleges:
  • FWC incorrectly considered FMM-1 and FMM-2 similar enough to be treated as the same for the study; StInc says that is not accurate
  • StInc noted that one of the consulting firms used by FWC is of questionable repute
  • StInc notes that a well-known consulting firm endorses CnF
  • StInc suggests too many variables not considered by FWC led to faulty conclusions
Now it gets real interesting:
  • origin of CnF technology comes from using d-limonene (d-limonene) -- a solvent extracted from oranges -- for cleaning oil off a concrete garage floor
  • the inventors then incorporated the technology with other additives to create a nano-droplet that could work downhole
  • Flotek acquired the patent in 2000
  • Flotek says the product "is used everywhere almost without exception that you may have a hydraulic fracturing technology" (sic)
  • near the end of the article, it sounds as if Flotek migrated to CnF for its efficacy as well as the opportunity that it could provide a way to differentiate itself from other downhole technologies
Bottom line:
  • obviously this is about money, investments, etc
  • that does not interest me at all; I have never invested in any of the companies mentioned in this story and have no plans to do so
  • what interested me: CnF, FracFocus, completion techniques -- but nothing about investment strategies
  • a similar story some years ago when I posted a note about SlickWater -- obscure at the time, and I had no idea why I posted it except I thought it might be of interest over time

Excellent Update On Steam Cracker Projects -- And The Impact -- RBN Energy -- December 28, 2016

Disclaimer: there will be typographical and factual errors on this page. Facts and opinions are interspersed; it is difficult to tell facts from opinions on the blog. There are no fake stories. At least that I am aware. 

First things first: the other day (yesterday?), I was guilty of a huge miss. An eagle-eyed reader caught it. I posted: " They come in threes: George Michael, Carrie Fisher, and ..." The reader noted I completely missed John Glenn. Thank you. Subconsciously, maybe I put John Glenn in a category all by himself. [Update, December 28, 2016: Carrie Fisher's mother, Debbie Reynolds, age 84, dies one day after her daughter dies. Perhaps those were the three: George Michael, Carrie Fisher, and Debbie Reynolds, with John Glenn in a world of his own.]

Tammy, Billy Vaughn

First things first: a huge call-out to RBN Energy. The blog has taught me so much. If you aren't reading RBN Energy every day you're missing a lot. RBN has a great blog again today.

First things first: top of my list -- read one of Carrie Fisher novels. It's too bad that it takes their dying to realize/understand how great someone is.

Now back to the other stuff.

My wife loved The Kennedy Center Honors last night. I missed it. Hopefully I can catch it later. Thank goodness for YouTube. My wife mentioned that Juanes played a double neck guitar. She had not seen a multi-neck guitar before and was curious if I had. I practically "grew up" watching a great guitarist play a double neck guitar:

My Wife Thinks You're Dead, Junior Brown
That is not my favorite song by Junior Brown but because it features his wife, it's one of my favorite videos of Junior Brown. This particular double neck guitar is not the typical double neck guitar and not the type Juanes played at The Kennedy Center Honors.

From wiki:
In 1985, Brown invented a double-neck guitar, with some assistance from Michael Stevens.
Brown called the instrument his "guit-steel."
The top neck on the guit-steel is a traditional six-string guitar, while the lower neck is a full-size lap steel guitar for slide playing.
Brown has two guit-steels for recording and live work. The original instrument, dubbed "Old Yeller," has as its standard six-string guitar portion the neck and pickups from Brown's previous stage guitar, a Fender Bullet. The second guit-steel, named "Big Red," has a neck laser-copied from the Bullet neck; but in addition to electric guitar pickups, both the standard and lap-steel necks use identical Sho-Bud lap-steel pickups. There is a pocket in the upper bout of the guitar to hold the slide bar when it is not in use.
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: I mentioned yesterday, with the blizzard, I was surprised to see "any" rigs still active in the Bakken. And it looks like we might be seeing something along that line, dropping from 41 to 38 pretty quickly:

Active Rigs3861173187186

RBN Energy: steam cracker feedstock selection in changing times. This is another incredible post by RBN Energy. Bottom line: with all the steam crackers coming on line, the demand for feedstock will continue to increase. It begins:
The Shale Revolution has had a profound impact on U.S. NGL markets by vastly increasing production and by lowering NGL prices relative to the prices of crude oil and natural gas. That has been good news for the nation’s steam crackers, the petrochemical plants that have enjoyed low NGL feedstock prices since 2012. But NGL markets are in for some big changes as new U.S. steam crackers coming online over the next two years will be competing for supply with export markets, raising the specter of higher NGL prices—a good thing for NGL producers, but not so for petrochemical companies. How this plays out will be determined by the feedstock supply decisions petrochemical producers make as NGL prices respond to rapidly increasing demand. Today we begin a series on how steam cracker operators determine day-by-day which feedstocks are the most economic, and on the factors driving the value of ethylene feedstock prices.
It ends:
Taking a fresh look at feedstock selection makes sense as 2017 begins because more than a dozen U.S. steam cracker projects that together would add more than 20 billion lb/year of new ethylene production capacity are either under construction or will be soon. As a group, these projects (most of them along the Gulf Coast in either Texas or Louisiana) could increase ethane demand by about 600 Mb/d by the early 2020s. Factor in the possibility of only modest growth in ethane production, continuing ethane takeaway constraints and rising ethane exports (overseas and to Canada) and, well, this could get very interesting.
In between, an incredible discussion of the subject.