Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Thursday Links; OXY Getting Its Groove Back; Fidelity With a Nice Well;

Six (6) New Permits, The Williston Basin, North Dakota
  • Operators: Oasis (3), CLR (2), Fidelity
  • Fields: Gros Ventre (Burke), Sanish (Mountrail), North Tobacco Garden (McKenzie), Stanley (Mountrail), Camp (McKenzie)
Wow: CVX is on a tear! (This is a dynamic link; comment pertains only to data at 7:52 a.m. Pacific time, on a beautiful Thursday morning in southern California).

Has OXY USA figured out the Bakken? Looking good. [Update, August 10, 2012: a reader wrote in to say that OXY switched to a new fracking company in the past few months: Baker Hughes.]

EIA raises forecast for 2012 price of oil. That's this year. 

Wow, RBN Energy keeps coming up with great informative articles. Today it's all about the crude oil to natural gas price ratio. Another great article. 

Independent Stock Analysis links here.  This website combines a ton of links AND just enough "headline" material that makes it easy to scan. Two interesting bits of trivia from ISA today:
  • "In China, “Prices can only start to rebound when the hydro power season ends in around September. Since Chinese power plants usually start their winter restocking in around October, that could be a crucial turning point for coal.”
  • Despite the US shale boom, why is world wide oil supply not going to go any higher?
  • “(Petrobras) said major increases in output were unlikely before 2015 despite $237 billion in planned spending. The 2012-2016 plan is the world’s largest corporate investment program.”  Reuters
    “Crude production from sanctions-hit Iran will fall by about 1 million b/d in 2012 to 2.6 million b/d by the end of the year” at Platts.

NOG, DBLE, and AXAS will be reporting 2Q12 earnings, Thursday.
Coming off confidential list:
  • 19685, 875, Fidelity, Kostelecky 5-8H, Heart River, t5/12; cum 36K 6/12; 
  • 19759, 425, OXY USA/Anschutz, Joe V Semerad 1-12-1H-142-97, Willmen, t2/12; cum 25K 6/12;
  • 20777, drl, BR, Renegade 34-10TFH, Sand Creek,
  • 22055, drl, Hess, GO-Tong Trsut A-157-96-2932H-1, Ray,


Note For the Granddaughters

We had a great day boogie boarding at Bolsa Chica, just west of Huntington Beach, California.

Boogie boarding is to surfing what snorkeling is to scuba diving.

The older granddaughter was taught by a professional, "Flavio" last summer.  The older granddaughter taught the younger granddaughter today. They boogie boarded for three straight hours. The surf condition was "poor-to-fair," making it perfect for boogie boarding neophytes. The water was 65 degrees F. Hopefully we get better pictures of them actually on the waves.

I might write more later, but they want me to play Uno with them. The younger one, who just turned 6 years old in early July, consistently beats me at Uno.  

Uploaded later: our second visit to Bolsa Chica this week:

For Unconventional Plays in the US, the Bakken Remains the Gold Standard

I posted this link/story at the Mississippi Lime page, but thought it interesting enough to note here:

The Mississippi Lime sprawls northward into Nebraska
Horizontal wells in the US Midcontinent Mississippi lime oil play aren’t as productive as those in the Williston basin Bakken, but shallower depths and cheaper drilling costs are driving increased interest in the Mississippi lime, ...

The land play has expanded to more than 17 million acres in northern Oklahoma, western Kansas, and southern Nebraska, ...

“This is a shallow carbonate play, with depths ranging from 3,000 ft to 6,000 ft, and since it’s shallower than other US unconventional plays, operators can employ less expensive, lower horsepower rigs to drill it.”
Three things:
  • the story was about the Mississippi Lime, but in the very first paragraph, it is compared to the Bakken
  • not as productive, not as expensive, but cost will still be a barrier (see the linked story)
  • lots of water to dispose (in other stories about the Mississippi Lime) -- significantly more than the Bakken on a per well average

More Good News For The Bakken: A Second Cuban Off-Shore Well Comes Up Dry

Link to PennEnergy here.
Officials from Cuban national oil company Cubapetroleo announced Monday that the country's second exploratory offshore oil well proved to be unproductive, according to The Associated Press.
Because of a U.S. embargo of Cuba, oil companies exploring around the country have been forced to rely upon a single rig constructed of less than 10 percent American-made parts, which has made exploration difficult.

Spanish oil company Repsol attempted one well that came up dry in May, but soon after opted out of a second proposed well. This second dry well was drilled in concert by Petronas subsidiary PC Gulf and Gazpromneft, from Malaysia and Russia, respectively.

For Investors Only: Natural Gas

Two separate data points: Don sent me the story about Black Hills Power shuttering several coal-powered plants. Don noted that these coal-powered plants will need to be replaced with something else: algae -- nuclear -- biofuels -- oil -- hydroelectric -- wind -- solar -- natural gas.

[Actually, the hydroelectric power and wind power from the Pacific Northwest might make up much/some of the difference.]

Earlier in the week, "anon 1" pointed out in a comment that "they" are taking down a lot of natural gas rigs.

These two data points suggest a very, very bullish natural gas market going forward. The largest natural gas producers, I believe, are XOM and COP. I could be wrong.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. This is for information only.

Obrigewitch -- Bell Oil Field, Whiting's Pronghorn Prospect -- This Will Be Fun To Watch


August 28, 2015: I now follow the Whiting Obrigewitch wells in Bell oil field at this post. Data for these wells may not be updated in the original post below.

Original Post
Of the new wells reporting, this one caught my eye:
  • 20079, 2,760, Whiting, Obrigewitch 21-16TFH, Bell, t2/12; cum 117K 6/12 it was completed in February of this year and by June had produced almost 120K bbls of light, sweet crude
Back to May 8, 2012: even for seasoned Bakken observers, this is exciting.

Also, from May 8, 2012: huge Whiting wells.

Newbies may want to start here: Whiting's Pronghorn prospect.

From May 22, 2012: The Prospect Sand could be the best payzone in the Bakken -- Mike Filloon.

I believe these are all the Obrigewitch wells in Bell oil field;
  • 19623, 1,075, Whiting, Obrigewitch 21-17TFH, Bell, t4/11; cum 212K 4/13;
  • 20079, 2,760, Whiting, Obrigewitch 21-16TFH, Bell, t2/12; cum 222K 4/13 it was completed in February of this year and by June had produced almost 120K bbls of light, sweet crude
  • 21018, 1,517, Whiting, Obrigewitch 11-17TFH, Bell, t2/11; cum 186K 4/13;
  • 22864, 1,890, Whiting, Obrigewitch 41-17PH, Bell, t11/12; cum 79K 4/13;
  • 22287, 1,738, Whiting, Obrigewitch 41-16PH, Bell, t11/12; cum 80K 4/13;
  • 23468, conf, Whiting, Obrigewitch 11-16PH, Bell, producing
  • 25454, loc, Whiting, Obrigewitch 11-29PH, Bell,
  • 25453, loc, Whiting, Obrigewitch 21-29PH, Bell, 
  • 25452, loc, Whiting, Obrigewitch 41-29PH, Bell,
Obrigewitch wells in Little Knife oil field:
  • 18227, 116, Hess, Obrigewitch 34-1H, Little Knife, t10/09; cum 117K 4/13;
  • 18276, 962, Hess, Obrigewitch 4-1H, Little Knife ,t2/10; cum 123K 4/13;
  • 22798, drl, Hess, LK-Obrigewitch 146-97-3427H-2, Little Knife,
  • 22800, drl, Hess, LK-Obrigewitch 146-97-3427H-3, Little Knife,
  • 22803, drl, Hess, LK-Obrigewitch 146-97-3427H-4, Little Knife,
See the entire string of wells running east-west in this section at this post.

A long, long time ago, when one of the first Obrigewitch wells "came in," a roughneck who had worked on the well, was kind enough to send me a note regarding his experience on a very successful well. As noted many times, it must be a huge sense of satisfaction for everyone working on the well when it's a good one.

From May 27, 2012: These are the oil fields inside Whiting's Pronghorn Prospect (my best guess; will be updated as new information flows), but consider the area between Dickinson and Belfield, especially north of the interstate as the area of the Pronghorn Prospect:

Pronghorn Prospect, north of I-94, between Dickinson and Belfield
  • Whiskey Joe -- nw of Park, Park west of Bell
  • Bell -- north of Belfield
  • Park -- east of Bell
  • North Creek -- between Bell and New Hradec
  • New Hradec -- east of Bell, ne of Zenith
  • Dutch Henry Butte -- east of New Hradec
  • Green River -- east of Belfield, north of Zenith, north of I-94; west of Dickinson
Pronghorn Prospect, south of I-94, west of Dickinson
  • South Heart -- south of Dutch Henry Butte -- south of I-94; west of Dickinson
  • Zenith -- south of Bell, east of Belfield; west of South Heart; south of I-94; west of Dickinson
  • Gaylord -- south of Belfield; south of the interstate; west of Zenith
  • Fryburg -- sw of  Belfield; west of Gaylord
  • Davis Creek -- sw of Belfield; south of Fryburg; southwest of Gaylord oil field

Another Inconvenient Truth: Wind Farms and Bats -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken -- Well, Maybe It Does

A reader sent me this link.

If there was any hint that the oil industry was killing birds and bats to this degree, it would be shut down, or highly penalized, but for wind: more studies. And more wind farms -- and they are prioritized for fast-tracking (1,000 new slicers and dicers proposed for Wyoming).

You all might remember this:
440,000 birds killed annually by wind turbines; 90 environmental groups fed up with the madness; seven ducks killed by oil and gas industry in the Bakken in 2011 spring flood from Top Stories, March, 2012.