Reddit Gains Respectability -- Biden's White House Now Posting On Reddit -- October 10, 2024

Locator: 48554ARCHIVES.

Meanwhile, Musk's "10-10" event will stream live on twitter tonight; event formally starts at 9:00 p.m. CDT. Will conflict with TNF: Seahawks vs 49ers. No MLB games scheduled tonight (needs to be fact-checked).

Chicken-Big Mac: apparently McDonald's introduces a chicken Big Mac (also needs to be confirmed).

Bull market: the other day I suggested the "two-year" bull market is a lot longer in duration than two years. Now I understand why "they're" so intent on calling it a "two-year" bull market. From google:

Groceries, link here:

Inflation, 2020 - 2021: people still don't get it.

Chobani yogurt:

• Target next door: $1.39 per serving, 20 servings = $27.80.
• Costco, ten minutes away: a case of 20 for $15.98.
• no kidding.

iOS 18: best feature right now? When cell service is down, connect via satellite. Link here.

AMD Investors' Day; Apple-Ticketmaster Partnership -- October 10, 2024

Locator: 48553AMD.

AMD: plummets. Not a bit surprising.  Competing with Intel. But that is not what investors wanted to hear. CPUs are so yesterday. 

Let's see what's being said about AMD today. Over at twitter:

• AMD's newest chip: "Turin"
• fifth generation EPYC
  
• AMD expects to grow at 60% CAGR over the next four years:
• from $45 billion today to $500 billion in 2028
• AMD says better performance than Nvidia but analyst says this comparison does not use the 3X-perforance-enhancing software from Nvidia
• if true, this is the one that catches my eye: META says that it has installed 1.5 million EPYC processors;
• says all live traffic for Llama 405b runs exclusively on MI300X -- needs to be fact-checked
• analyst: if Nvidia / AMD share remains the same, based on AMD's analysis, AI GPU demand would nearly double "Street" consensus.
• analyst: another +$14million unusual call buying for AMD today
• that's nearly $30 million from just one buyer within the past 48 hours
• "someone knows something"
• and AMD drops 4%
• someone knows something
  

Apple: Ticketmaster will start using Apple Wallet this month. Link at The Verge. 

Ticketmaster announced today that it will be the first ticketing company to use Apple’s upgraded Apple Wallet tickets for iOS 18.

With the improved tickets, you’ll be able to see event information “such as a map of the venue and parking details, recommended playlists from Apple Music, local forecasts from Weather, and easy access to location sharing to help fans find their friends when they arrive,” Ticketmaster says.

Venues and teams will also be able to add links to their app or website. The first Ticketmaster event to use the upgraded tickets will be the October 19th Los Angeles Football Club game at BMO Stadium.

Ticketmaster says the Miami Heat will be “next to debut” the new ticket experience, though the company didn’t say exactly when that might happen. The improved ticket experience will be “more widely available” next year.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• And, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Amazon but hold no position in AMZN. Never have. 

WTI Jumps 4%; Up $2.60; Trading Again At $76 -- October 10, 2024

Locator: 48552MIDEAST.

Gasoline demand, link here. Sharp reversal; strong demand.

WTI: $75.85. Jumped 4% today; gained $2.60. Trading near $76 at the close. What happened? 

Netanyahu talking to a lame duck president. Link here.

President Biden "demanding......" Netanyahu likely doesn't like to be lectured ... Yom Kppur holiday begins Friday, tomorrow, October 11, 2024. Fireworks tonight? Next week? Netanyahu itchy to pull trigger. Biden doing everything to buy time hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough.

Israeli Defense Minister was supposed to be in DC this weekend for another meeting with US SecDef -- Netanyahu stopped that plane from departing even as it was on the tarmac? Link here.

For the archives, link here.

 Is it now or never or same ol', same ol'?

WTI Jumps 4%; Up $2.60; Trading Again At $76 -- October 10, 2024

Locator: 48551CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC. 

AMD: plummets. Not a bit surprising.  Competing with Intel. But that is not what investors wanted to hear. CPUs are so yesterday. 

From App Economy, link here:

Compare with Nvidia, link here:

Tickers compared:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• And, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Amazon but hold no position in AMZN. Never have. 
  

Tilray (TLRY): a favorite on "Fast Money." Wow, how often was this talked about on "Fast Money" over the past five years, maybe even longer. 

With Obama, investors were hoping marijuana would take off. Now, just another beer company. I don't know; I don't follow it but it came up again on "Fast Money" today. It gets tedious. The "Portland (Oregon)" model has soured a lot of folks on this whole subject.

By the way, there's a big story regarding Portland today. If I find it again, I'll post it. Headlines say one thing; reading the story says something else. Bottom line: downtown Portland, Oregon, is in a death spiral. Won't recover any time soon -- if ever.

Portland, Oregon: google portland oregon change of city leadership. One big mess. Which portends ...

***************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $75.85. Jumped 4% today; gained $2.60. Trading near $76 at the close. What happened? Netanyahu talking to a lame duck president. Link here. President Biden "demanding......" Probably not something Netanyahu accepts ...

Active rigs: 39.

Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Seven new permits, #41220 - $41226, inclusive:

• Operator: Phoenix Operating
• Field: Bailey (Dunn)
• Comments;
• Phoenix has permits for seven Marshall wells, NWNW 13-144-94, 
• to be sited 381 FNL and between 394 FWL and 724 FWL.

One permit renewed:

• 40279, conf, Minnkota Power Coop, NrDt 1, NESE 34-142-83; East Center Carbon Dioxide, Oliver County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 40578, 375, Oasis, Iceman Federal 5601 34-05 5B,

Thursday, October 10, 2024

Five new permits, #41228 - $41232, inclusive:

• Operator: Oasis
• Field: Elk (McKenzie)
• Comments: 
• Oasis has permits for two new Roen wells and three new Hoehn wells, SWSW 24-152-102; 
• to be sited between 622 FSL and 695 FSL and between 876 FWL and 1024 FWL.

Seven permits renewed:

• CLR (6): three Elveida wells and three Bliss wells, all in Divide County;
• Hunt Oil: a Palermo NCNIC well, Mountrail County

EV Charging -- The Big Story Today -- October 10, 2024

Locator: 48550EVS.

EVs charging: oh-oh. Link here. By Charles Kennedy so you know it's gonna be good.

While electric vehicle registrations in the United States have surged by 142% since the beginning of 2023, the pace at which public charging point installations are growing has been just 22%, risking undermining the current momentum of EV sales in America.

As of September 2024, registrations of electric vehicles in the United States hit 3.5 million units, per data from the Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC) cited by Reuters’s columnist Gavin Maguire.

That’s a surge of 142% since the beginning of 2023.

But the number of public EV charging points is rising at a much slower pace of just 22% since the start of 2023, the data from AFDC showed.

While all U.S. states have seen rising EV registrations over the past 20 months, the numbers of public charging points are growing unevenly across the country.

If the U.S. is to sustain the strong growth in EV sales, it needs a faster rollout of public charging points, Reuters’s Maguire notes.

The lack of a standardized plug for charging and the still underdeveloped network of EV charging points have been some of the key obstacles to the wider adoption of electric vehicles.

Many, many other issues not even addressed in this article.

The question not being asked: why? Why is the EV-charging network not being built out, despite all the government's push on EV charging units?

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 1, October 10, 2024

Locator: 48549CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Amazon: raising delivery technology to a new level, link here. If this works, it will be ground-breaking.

TSM: Shay Boloor. Folks are overthinking this.

More TSMC, folks are overthinking this.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• And, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Amazon but hold no position in AMZN. Never have.
  

SSA: 2025 COLA -- 2.5% -- Announced October 10, 2024

 

Locator: 48543SOCIALSECURITY.

Updates

October 19, 2024: SSA announced today, as predicted -- a 2.5% COLA. 

Original Post

Link here.

The 2025 COLA is estimated to be 2.5% compared to 3.2% last year.

Amazing how fast this is "correcting."

There are many, many story lines in this graphic, most of which CNBC won't be discussing.

Second anniversary of the "bull market." Many mentions on CNBC today of this being the second anniversary of the current bull market. Yes, I know ... but I'm having trouble not seeing a bull market since 2009 with very, very minor interruptions of no consequence (in hindsight). People that can’t see a bull market since 2009 (and possibly even as far back as 1996) will never be satisfied. 

And having said that:

• my dad was an avid investor between: 1977 and 2015
• the Dow Jones Industrial:
• 1977: 2,000
• 2015: 17,000
• over a time span of 38 years
• an average of 400 points / year
• I began investing in 1984 but didn't reach my investing stride until 2007
• the Dow Jones Industrial:
• 2007: 14,000
• 2024: 42,000
• over a time span of 17 years.
• an average of 1650 points / year
• For whatever that's worth. Except that I had it easier than my dad. And he left his kids quite a bit including each with a college education and no college debt. And great memories.

Stanford's Rolling Out A Revolutionary Way To Think About Personal Finance -- Made Possibly By Generous Gift From Schwab -- October 10, 2024

Locator: 48548PERSONALFINANCE.

Link here to the paywall. But even that much gets you everything you need to know. 

But here's the real deal -- from stanford.edu. 

This is a huge deal. Remember, this is where SoFi started, where Robinhood started.

The headline:

Stanford Business "IS" Schwab. Link here.

From the linked Stanford site:

Even today, the most basic concepts of money management elude millions of people: They pay more than they should to borrow money, have little provision to protect themselves against financial shocks, and plan poorly – if at all – for their financial futures.

A new multidisciplinary initiative aims to change that: first, by providing the resources and tools that are essential for making sound financial decisions and building a safe financial future; then, by expanding the learnings and best practices from Stanford to colleges and universities throughout the United States; and ultimately, by using technology to extend the program’s reach across the globe.

The Initiative for Financial Decision-Making – a collaboration among Stanford Graduate School of Business (GSB), the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), and the Stanford Department of Economics in the School of Humanities and Sciences – is made possible by a generous gift from Helen and Charles R. “Chuck” Schwab, ’59, MBA ’61, and the Charles R. Schwab Foundation for Financial Freedom.

“Through research and teaching, this cross-Stanford collaboration will guide individuals and communities on a path toward sound financial decision-making,” said Stanford President Jonathan Levin, who was dean of Stanford GSB when the gift was made. “We’re incredibly grateful for the vision and generosity of Chuck Schwab, who is making this powerful new initiative possible.”

This gift continues the Schwabs’ decades-long tradition of philanthropy to Stanford that has touched myriad areas of campus, from the GSB to Athletics, the Cantor Arts Center, the Hoover Institution, SIEPR, and Stanford Medicine, as well as significant support for undergraduate financial aid, including student-athletes.

Economist Professor Annamaria Lusardi, link here:

Everything, Everywhere Happening All At Once -- A Lot Going On At The Moment -- Skate To Where The Puck ... October 10, 2024

Locator: 48547B.

Headlines only. Links, graphics later.

Apple Pay: coming to Home Depot, H-E-B. Whoo-hoo.

Apple TV+: launching on Amazon Prime Video. Whoo-hoo.

Tesla: China. Best quarter ever.

NVDA: Cramer. Folks are overthinking this.

Magnificent 7: Evan. Folks are overthinking this.

TSM: Shay Boloor. Folks are overthinking this.

More TSMC, folks are overthinking this.

EVs charging: oh-oh. Link here.

***************************
The Book Page

The Quakers in America (Columbia Contemporary American Religion Series), Thomas Hamm, c. 2006.

Link here. Notes will be followed here.

*******************************
Disclaimer 
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

End Of The Hydrogen Hype Cycle -- Dan Tsubouchi -- October 10, 2024

Locator: 48546HYDROGEN.

Link here. Graphics pending. Below the fold. But to remind folks of the "hype curve":

Meanwhile, earlier  --

RBN Energy: how and where will US low-carbon-intensity hydrogen expand?

Given the frothy targets to reduce U.S. carbon emissions set by the 2016 Paris Agreement and an anticipated expanding role in that process for low-carbon-intensity (LCI) hydrogen that is barely being produced in 2024, it’s hard to believe there’s a path forward. Yet one recent study from industry participants in the National Petroleum Council (NPC), commissioned by the Department of Energy (DOE), provides detailed projections of how and where LCI hydrogen will develop, including regional variations. In today’s RBN blog we review that analysis. 

This is the third installment of a series covering the practical and economic viability of increased utilization of LCI hydrogen to reduce carbon emissions — ultimately to help meet the U.S. meet its net-zero-by-2050 goals. In Part 1, we introduced an NPC study commissioned by the DOE to help define potential pathways leading to LCI hydrogen deployment at scale.

*********************************
From Dan Tsubouchi

Maybe a little easier to see:

 

Tesla's 10-10 Today -- Thursday, October 10, 2024

Locator: 48545B.

Nobel Prize in Literature: Han Kang, South Korean, The Vegetarian, c. 2007, link here. Okay.

Delta: misses on top and bottom lines. But CEO says the airline is back. 3Q24 rocked by CrowdStrike. CEO not happy with tech support / protection. 

WTI: prepare for bearish contango. Link here. A sign of oversupply.

Milton: Fortunately wind not as bad as expected; already across the entire panhandle and now over the Atlantic. Tornadoes the bigger problem. But Tampa did not get the direct strike.

Economic news: breaking -- CPI and first time claims -- mixed; CPI in line or slightly "warmer" than expected. Blah, blah, blah.

Pre-market pretty much unchanged when numbers announced, but by noon these numbers will be forgotten. First-time unemployment claims at a recent high of 258,000 but not that far off from estimate of 230,000. Steve Liesman: a disappointing report but not an incredibly disappointing number. CPI ex food and energy y/y, 3.3% vs 3.2%.

*******************************
Back To The Bakken

WTI: $74.21.

Friday, October 11, 2024: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter, 538 for the year
40259, conf, Enerplus, MC-Kudrna 144-95-15-22-4H
40258, conf, Enerplus, MC-Kudrna 144-95-15-22-5H,

Thursday, October 10, 2024: 22 for the month; 21 for the quarter, 536 for the year
40273, conf, Empire North Dakota LLC, Nuthatch 29-12 1H, Starbuck oil field;

RBN Energy: how and where will US low-carbon-intensity hydrogen expand?

Given the frothy targets to reduce U.S. carbon emissions set by the 2016 Paris Agreement and an anticipated expanding role in that process for low-carbon-intensity (LCI) hydrogen that is barely being produced in 2024, it’s hard to believe there’s a path forward. Yet one recent study from industry participants in the National Petroleum Council (NPC), commissioned by the Department of Energy (DOE), provides detailed projections of how and where LCI hydrogen will develop, including regional variations. In today’s RBN blog we review that analysis. 

This is the third installment of a series covering the practical and economic viability of increased utilization of LCI hydrogen to reduce carbon emissions — ultimately to help meet the U.S. meet its net-zero-by-2050 goals. In Part 1, we introduced an NPC study commissioned by the DOE to help define potential pathways leading to LCI hydrogen deployment at scale.