Thursday, November 30, 2017

Off The Net Until Saturday -- November 30, 2017

I cannot handle high-anxiety events.

Tomorrow, too many high-anxiety events:
  • the vote on the tax bill
  • the profit taking on the market
So, I will not be blogging Friday.

I won't be watching the news, and I won't be checking my e-mail. I will be turning off the computer in a few minutes and won't be turning it on until Saturday.

My next posting will be Saturday.

Good luck to everyone.

Where I would rather be tonight. 

Shadows In A Mirror, Chris Issak
A Little Help For My Friends
But before I go, please consider donating to the following (note: this is filmed in Portland, OR):

The Apple Page -- November 30, 2017

My wife is not a computer geek, nor is she all that impressed with Apple in the big scheme of things. Some years ago, I was pleasantly surprised when she actually wanted an Apple Watch. She has had a Series 1 Apple Watch almost since the day they were released. And she loves it.

Tonight, she came in smiling/laughing that the watch had just told her she had met / surpassed her exercise goals for the past three days. She really, really enjoys that Apple Watch.

Much more I could write but most folks may not care, so I will move on.

At Target tonight, I saw the Series 3 Apple Watch. Only $399.

She doesn't know it, but I will get her the Series 3 one of these days, unless I wait too long and then she will get the Series 4.

MRO With A Well That Produced 75K In One Month -- November 30, 2017

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and factual errors. In addition, I probably see things that aren't really there. Whatever. If this is important to you, go to the source. For heaven's sake, don't take my word for it.


July 15, 2018: IPs and production data updated. Also, the graphic of this area has been updated --

Original Post
I track the Clarks Creek wells here

The graphic:

The wells:
  • 19790, 1,318, EOG, Clarks Creek 3-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, API 33-053-03320 (has not been re-fracked), t6/11; cum 438K 9/18;
  • 20602, 670, EOG, Clarks Creek 15-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, API 33-053-03535 (has not been re-fracked), t7/12; cum 520K 9/18;
  • 33281, 3,026, MRO, Iron Woman USA 14-9H, Antelope, Sanish pool, 30 stages; 15.3 million lbs, t7/17; cum344K 9/18;
First, let's look at the production profile of the MRO well, #33281 -- again, 154K in less than 2.5 months, and note the amount of proppant, 15.3 million lbs but only 30 stages:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Pretty impressive, huh? 74,457 bbls in one month. A record, it might be. I'll see if I can find a well with more than 75K in one one month.

So, pretty good.

Regular readers know that I am always curious how neighboring wells do when they come back on-line after a neighboring well was fracked.

So, let's look.

#19790 might have had some bump in production but not much to write home about.

But look at #20602:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Not a huge jump in production if one includes the amount of lost production while the well was off-line, but still ....
Ready For Some Huge Wells?

Now we'll look at four EOG wells in the same area, DUCs that have recently been completed, but still on the confidential list (they've since been updated):

33050, 1,703, EOG, Clarks Creek 75-0719HX, t6/17; cum 393K 9/18;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32796, 2,518, EOG, in July, 2016, target formation was changed from middle Bakken, to Three Forks, first bench; Clarks Creek 73-0719H, t6/17; cum 298K 9/18;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32795, 2,204, EOG, Clarks Creek 110-0719H, t6/17; cum 299K 9/18:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32794, 2,382, EOG, Clarks Creek 74-0719H, t6/17; cum 327K 9/18;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Are those not incredible wells!

But there's more.

What about the neighboring wells to the four DUCs above that have been completed but still on the confidential list (#32794, #32795, #32796, and #33050?

20886, 317, EOG, Clarks Creek 101-1819H, 4 sections, 4/12; cum 396K 9/18:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

20887, 3,415, EOG, Clarks Creek 14-1819H, 4 sections, t4/12; cum 316K 9/18;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

 The Bakken is pretty impressive.

Five New Permits -- November 30, 2017

Some Clarks Creek wells that will blow your socks off: link here.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs543965185191

Five new permits:
  • Operators: EOG (4); Newfield
  • Fields: Parshall (Mountrail); Antelope (McKenzie); Sand Creek (McKenzie)
  • Comments: see graphic below
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
  • 33146, 273, BR, Mathistad 22B UTFH, Croff, 4 sections, t10/17; cum -- 
Ten permits renewed:
  • CLR (8): eight permits for the 8-well Hartford/Dover pad in Williams County
  • NP Resources: a Mosser Federal permit in Billings County
  • MRO: a Smith USA permit in Dunn County
EOG has a permit for another well in Antelope, SESE 8-151-94, see this post/graphic to see where this well will be located --
  • 34342, loc, EOG, Clarks Creek 130-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool
It will be located in the same area of the "red circle" below."

EOG Clarks Creek wells are tracked here.


Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #487 -- November 30, 2017

Before I started blogging (back before 2007) I knew very little about the Bakken and nothing about natural gas and even less (if that's possible) about bond yields. Now I know a lot more about the Bakken, a bit more about natural gas, and even a bit more about bond yields.

From Bloomberg:

I now understand this graph.

"A" in the graph below: similar patter to "C".

"B" in the graph below: close but no cigar.

It look like it would be a rational move to build a cash position if we see "B" next year. Jay Powell says he would prefer not to "rock the boat." 

On another note, there has been a lot of chatter about rising interest rates -- let's see the historical data for the "Fed fund rate":

Not particularly concerning. 

The Political Page

One of the biggest days -- maybe the biggest day -- on Wall Street, considering the entire year and what today's market news reflects -- and on the home page of The Los Angeles Times, it's not even mentioned. 

The good news: looking at the home page of The Los Angeles Times, it appears Trump has hit the State Department with a classic one-two punch. First, Rex Tillerson has cleaned house, and now, if reports are true, his successor, Mike Pompeo would be even more effective in carrying out Trump's negotiations with our friends and adversaries.

No links. Not worth the time.

Holy Bitcoin, Batman, The Dow Is Up 303 Points -- The Market And Energy Page, T+312 -- November 30, 2017

On the first leg of my bicycle ride this morning I wondered to myself whether the Dow would go up 300 points today. Wow. I may have to bike home early to listen to the naysayers on CNBC.

My favorite because, I assume, he was hired based to some extend on his understanding of the market and politics:

The Political Page 

Just Too Much Going On But I Have To Take Advantage Of This Wonderful Weather -- Going Biking

But before going, we haven't looked in on Art Berman lately. What's he saying now? This is from his most recent article over at his site: the US over-supply of oil is ending.
He and I live in a different universe. It appears he forgets that the majors were still drilling "attractive off-shore plays" when small independents broke the code for fracking tight oil plays.

Having said that, in the column linked above, Berman suggests this:
If "comparative inventory" continues to fall at the 9-month average of 4 mmb/week, oil prices may be approximately $67 per barrel by the end of December. If C.I. falls at the 8 mmb/week average since late September, WTI could approach levels not seen since before the price collapse in late 2014.
It's hard to see WTI falling below $50, but if WTI trends toward $70 by the end of next month (December, 2017), we will be "off to the races." Seventy-dollar oil in 2018 is as good as $100-oil in 2014. It's all about margins and volumes sold. At $100-oil, the price of gasoline could discourage consumption in the US.

The causes of the U.S. inventory drawdown are clear: increased exports of crude oil and greater domestic consumption. (What about decreased imports from OPEC?)
Crude oil exports for the first half of 2017 averaged 766 mmb/d but rose to 1.8 mmb/d in September and October. Increased exports now average more than 12 mmb/week and contribute substantially to reduced inventory levels.
Higher export levels correlate with the increased spread between Brent and WTI prices that began in late July. Traders can sell U.S. crude oil overseas at less than international prices but at levels higher than domestic pricing allows. Record exports of 2.13 mmb/d occurred during the week ending October 27.
Tight oil production levels, crude oil quality and U.S. refinery blending needs are behind the WTI discount to Brent price. Most U.S. refineries are designed for international grades of oil like Brent which is heavier and contains more sulfur than WTI (think Madison and Red River from North Dakota).
The U.S. has had a surplus of light sweet oil since the tight oil boom began, and the Brent-WTI spread reached almost $30/barrel in September 2011 as a result
Berman is concerned that declining US crude oil inventories will drive up the price of oil (above $70); increase the price of gasoline by a dollar/gallon; and lead to an economic downturn. In fact, US shale can respond quickly to changes in the price of WTI. If we trend toward $70 (which forecasts that we could go above $70) there is no doubt in my mind that operators in the Permian and the Bakken could respond with an increase of more than 3 million bbls/day.

So, How's Justin Trudeau Doing?

From Economic Times:
India is now home to the world’s eighth-biggest stock market, overtaking Canada for the first time in almost a decade. The score: India $2.29 trillion, Canada $2.28 trillion. 
Mumbai’s total stock market capitalization hasn’t exceeded Toronto’s since Jan. 21, 2008, when the S&P BSE Sensex plunged as concern grew that a global financial crisis was taking hold. 
Since then, India’s market swelled by $800 billion as investors flocked to a nation where the government boosted consumption through a job-guarantee plan, streamlined through a job-guarantee plan, streamlined the indirect-tax system and opened more industries to foreigners.

Wow, I Was So Wrong -- Whoo-Hoo -- November 30, 2017

John McCain on record to support the tax bill. Only two GOP senators now on record to vote against the bill. If passed, the real action will be in conference.

Heidi Heitkamp will vote against the tax bill because it favors corporations and small businesses ... like North Dakota farms. Also, elimination of the estate tax might save a few family farms. What a doofus.

The Apple Page

Apple launches new heart study through its watch. This is a whole lot bigger than the market realizes based on share price action. Apple Watch app will detect atrial fibrillation. Not trivial. This opens a whole new demographic of Apple watch wearers. I don't own an an iPhone or an Apple Watch. My wife, not a geek by any stretch of the imagination, has both, and she absolutely loves her Apple Watch.

While on the treadmill this morning, her Apple Watch sent her this motivational message: "Hi, May, yesterday you rocked your exercise ring. Congratulations. Keep moving." 

Newfield Reports One Big Well; Whiting Reports Two Big Wells -- November 30, 2017

Data for these wells will not be updated at this page. Posting this data as a stand-alone post for other reasons. These wells came off the confidential list today:
Thursday, November 30, 2017: 69 for the month; 110 for the quarter
  • 33320, SI/NC WPX, Mandaree South 25-36HC, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 33063, SI/NC, XTO, Deep Creek Federal 44X-5A, Lost Bridge, no production data,
  • 32058, 1,898, Newfield, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-14HLW, Bear Den, 4 sections; Three Forks, 62 stages, 6 million lbs, t8/17; cum 68K 9/17; from the geologist's narrative, "... drilled in the Lost Bridge field also referred to locally as the Bear's Den field, located about 10 miles south and 4 miles east of Keene in Dunn County..."; six drill bits; a total of 169 hours (7 days) to complete; penetration rate of 128 feet per hour; the well bore was within the 20-feet Three Forks target window for 93.57% of the lateral, the Three Forks Upper "A" Facies for 5.24", and the Three Forks Middle "C" Facies for 1.19% of the lateral. TVD: start of target, 10,993.5 feet; end of lateral, 11,011 feet (17.5 feet).
  • 31834, 1,267, Whiting, Evitt 34-12-2H, Truax, 4 sections, 41 stages; 10.3 million lbs, t6/17; cum 85K 9/17;
  • 31370, 1,107, Whiting, Evitt 14-12TFH, Truax, 4 sections, Three Forks, 34 stages, 8.7 million lbs, t6/17; cum 90K 9/17;

The Market And Energy Page, T+312 -- November 30, 2017

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

Market: futures suggest the Dow could hit 24,000 today. Watch for great buying opportunities when McCain +3 scuttle the tax bill.

Record: the market has hit five "1,000-level milestones" since Trump was elected president: 20,000; 21,000; 22,000; 23,000; 24,000 -- is that correct? That's what was said on CNBC -- I will have to check. Yup, that's accurate.

ENB, EEP: surge. Whoo-hoo. Enbridge will streamline asset, hike dividend, lower debt.

Shell: selling pipeline assets for about a billion dollars --
Moving ahead with its divestment goals, European oil giant Royal Dutch Shell is set to vend stakes in pipelines and terminals to its subsidiary Shell Midstream Partners LP in an $825-million deal.  
According to Shell Midstream, the purchase price is approximately 8.4 times the pipelines’ projected adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization for the next one year. The partnership is likely to finance the deal with borrowing under the new and current credit facilities. Subject to satisfactory closing conditions, the transaction is set for closure on Dec 1, 2017. 
Per the deal Shell Midstream will acquire 22.9% and 22% stakes in Mars Oil Pipeline Co LLC and Odyssey Pipeline LLC, respectively. This will increase Shell Midstream’s ownership interests to 71.5% and 71% interests in Mars and Odyssey Pipeline, respectively. Further, the subsidiary will purchase Shell’s entire stake in Triton West LLC, which owns the Anacortes, Colex, Des Plaines, Portland and Seattle products terminals. The partnership will also scoop up 41.48% interest in 55-mile long LOCAP pipeline along with 10% interest in the 1,830 mile long Explorer Pipeline.
The move will help Shell to proceed with its $30-billion divestment program, which is aimed at lowering debt arising from the $47-billion acquisition of BG Group. The latest divestment is expected to enhance Shell’s cash flows and return value to shareholders. With Shell already closing more than $23-billion divestment deals, it remains on track to meet its target by 2018. Further, it announced asset disposals worth around $3 billion and additional $4-billion divestment deals are in advanced talks over and above the $23 billion completed. The move is also in line with the company's aim to upgrade and streamline its portfolio. Shell seeks to simplify the operational structure by offloading assets.
No satellite evidence of global warming for 23 years. Link here. From the article:
"Global warming has not accelerated temperature rise in the bulk atmosphere in more than two decades, according to a new study funded by the Department of Energy.
University of Alabama-Huntsville climate scientists John Christy and Richard McNider found that by removing the climate effects of volcanic eruptions early on in the satellite temperature record it showed virtually no change in the rate of warming since the early 1990s.
We indicated 23 years ago — in our 1994 Nature article — that climate models had the atmosphere’s sensitivity to CO2 much too high,” Christy said in a statement. “This recent paper bolsters that conclusion.”"
  • 2018 - milking this for another decade, Algore
  • 2017 - today's headline
  • 2007 - Nobel Prize, Al Gore
  • 2006 -  An Inconvenient Truth, Al Gore
  • 1994 - 23 years ago
  • 1992 - Earth in the Balance, Al Gore
Snowpack in western US setting November records. Link here
Snowpack in parts of the West is at record mid-November levels, and other locations with record low snowpack for this time of year are beginning to get in on the fun.
More than 20 sites in Washington, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming currently have their highest mid-November snowpack, reflected by estimated water content in the snow, on record as of November 15, while many other northern tier sites rank in the top five snowiest, according to the USDA's Natural Resources Conservation Service.
Even nature is making America great ... for skiers.

Bakken Gas Flaring Rebounds, And More Challenges Loom -- RBN Energy -- November 30, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs553965185191

RBN Energy: Bakken gas flaring rebounds, and more challenges loom. Archived. Regular readers are aware of this. This is a huge story and from my perspective, it's a story that the NDIC regulators let this one get out of the barn. Maybe more on this later. Simply too much happening this morning for any lengthy comments. Archived here.

November 30, 2017-- Morning Meanderings -- Nothing About The Bakken

Top top story today: Tillerson to be ousted from State -- NY Times.

Top story today: an explanation for the remarkable turn in Saudi Arabia's foreign reserves. One reader has already sent me the explanation. Now, I'm waiting for Financial Times for their story. My hunch is that Bloomberg will get to the story eventually.

Shell: didn't get the memo from BP. BP learned an expensive lesson "going green." BP is back to petroleum. Shell apparently didn't get the memo. From CNBC, Shell, one of the biggest oil companies plans to halve its carbon emissions: the company will achieve that goal by improving efficiency (sure) and doing what BP did some years ago: added more biofuels and renewable power to its business mix.

Top states for business: Texas has moved back up; sitting at #2 now, behind North Carolina. This is a huge story, if true, considering that Texas had dropped to #4 earlier this summer, and then hit by Hurricane Harvey.
North Carolina has built one of the country’s strongest business climates over the past two decades, fueled by low business costs, incentives and a young, educated workforce, many of whom have been trained at the strong universities in the state and Research Triangle Park.
Migration rates into the state are among the highest in the U.S. annually. The Tar Heel State is the only one to rank among the top five on FORBES’ Best States for Business for 12 straight years, but it never reached the top rung until now.
Top states for business, continuing, same link as above.
Texas moved up two spots to second this year, the state’s best showing since 2006 (also second).
The $1.6 trillion Texas economy is the second biggest in the U.S., behind only California. Texas ranks first for current economic climate thanks to strong employment and gross state product growth over the past five years.
The outlook is equally bright. In addition, 100 of the 1,000 largest public and private companies in the U.S. based in Texas, including giants like AT&T, ExxonMobil and Dell.
One of the only things holding Texas back from the top overall ranking is education. Only 83% of adults have a high school degree, which is second lowest among the states.
Top states for business, see this site. Others disagree. At that site, Georgia ranks #1 for the fourth year in a row; Texas #3. However, when considering "overall cost to do business," Texas ranks #1 in that list.

Pending home sales: forgot to post this story yesterday. Pending home sales index jumped a much sharper-than-expected 3.5 percent in October. Pending sales in the South jumped 7.4 percent after falling 3.0 percent during the hurricane-swept month of September. Link here

Weekly jobs report: link here --
  • consensus: 240K
  • prior: 239
  • actual: 238
EIA gasoline demand graph: link here --

Google Finance: if you have this site bookmarked, you will find that Alphabet has released a huge re-design. I don't care for the re-design yet, but I will probably get used to it. Regardless, it's a gazillion times better than Yahoo!Finance. [On a side note, do you remember when Steve Jobs went to court to defend his decision to get rid of Adobe Flash some years ago?]

Stunning omission: in my cerebral filing system, tucked away back in the corner is a virtual folder labeled "Mainstream Media." Inside there is a folder labeled "Liberal." Inside that fold, "Government Supported" and inside that, "Soros - Steyer Funded." Finally, we get to the "NPR-PBS" folder. I assume these are two completely different entities but in my filing system, they are two sides of one coin: one a radio outlet, and one a television outlet.
NPR announced yet another senior executive was fired for sexual harassment.  Here are key paragraphs of that very well-scripted NPR announcement:
NPR Chief News Editor David Sweeney has left the company following allegations of sexual harassment filed against him by at least three female journalists.
This follows a formal internal review into his conduct, after three current and former NPR journalists made formal complaints against him.
And it also followed greater scrutiny of the issue after revelations about Bill O'Reilly and the late Roger Ailes, both of Fox News, and prominent Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein.
The most prominent name in the "NPR-PBS" folder was missing.

Very well-scripted, NPR.
NFL. Will $90 million in "donations" get the Kaipernicks to start standing again? LOL. Can the players be bought for a measly $90 million. I doubt it.

Cruising. This is an incredible story and should give Tesla investors a pause. It's behind the New York Times paywall, but if you google "For more than a year, General Motors has tantalized investors with plans to build its future around self-driving cars." you will get to it. Yesterday, I noted "Cruise" on the side of the driverless Chevy Bolt cruising San Francisco. Now I know why. The story begins: no, not here. It's too long. I will do this later in another stand-alone post.

Market: speaking of Tesla, yesterday the "tech sector" was the hardest hit sector in the market. And, in the tech sector, it was "the chips" -- computer chips, not potato chips -- that took the biggest hit. Tesla also took a huge hit, dropping $10/share. I've always said Tesla is a battery company disguised as an automobile company. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the "big boys" are looking at Tesla as a "chip" company.

Rare sighting: headline from teslarati -- Tesla showcases Model S in rare LA Auto Show appearance as exhibitor. Tesla had skipped some earlier car shows this past year for various reasons. 

Robots: look at this story from Bloomberg -- robots are coming for jobs of as many as 800 million worldwide. See if you can spot what I found most interesting. Hint: one word, near the bottom of the story. I will come back to this later if I remember.

Kroger. Huge surge in share price this morning, up 9%. Good for Freddy Kroger.

Baby, it's cold outside. Wow, look at this. Siberia, minus 60 degrees in November. Temperatures this extreme are par for the course in this area during the heart of winter, but it's significantly colder than the average November low of close to minus 40.