Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Has The Bleeding Stopped? Saudi's Foreign Exchange Reserves Increase Dramatically In October, 2017

Link here, Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves:

October, 2017:
Foreign Exchange Reserves in Saudi Arabia increased to 1850247 SAR Million in October from 1819581 SAR Million in September of 2017. Foreign Exchange Reserves in Saudi Arabia averaged 2221323.34 SAR Million from 2010 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 2796941 SAR Million in August of 2014 and a record low of 1569145 SAR Million in April of 2010.
I believe the exchange rate is about 25 cents for a Saudi Rial.
  • 1,850,247,000,000 rials in October, 2017
  • 1,819,581,000,000 rials in September, 2017
  • Delta: 30,666,000,000 
  • $0.27 for 1 SAR
  • $8,279,820,000
This is interesting. Over the past year or so I have noted that Saudi Arabia's drop in foreign exchange reserves has been about $3 billion to $8 billion month-over-month. So the jump in reserves of about $8 billion puts things into perspective.

Some links to come back to:
  • Saudi foreign reserves continue slide; lowest since April, 2011 -- Reuters
  • the mysterious (and continuing) falling Saudi foreign reserves -- CNBC 
  • an oil giant is still burning through its cash pile -- Bloomberg 
I have googled at length for an analysis to explain the increase in reserves in October, 2017.

One reader, Don, again, has it correct, and has provided an answer. I won't post that answer for awhile pending more data from readers or the media. 

One more check: I spoke too soon -- here's an update, just two days ago: Reuters has an October update. I'm going biking, but there are several story lines here. The biggest story line: selling just before the market took off! Liquidating reserves just before the US market took off, although they have had a good run since Trump was elected. But they left a lot -- and a real lot -- of money on the table.

But there's much more to the story. Don got it just right.

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