Saturday, May 8, 2021

Yes, It's Gonna Take A Lot More Natural Gas -- China -- May 8, 2021

Do you remember this essay from April 30, 2021: Yeah -- It's Gonna Take A Lot More Natural Gas

Well, here we go: China's natural gas imports surge as its economy recovers. Link to Irina Slav.  

Natural gas imports into China rose 22.4 percent on the year in the first four months of this year to 39.45 million metric tons.

April natural gas imports alone were 31 percent higher on the year and 16.2 percent higher on March (2021).

According to PetroChina, the country’s demand for natural gas will hit 350-356 billion cubic meters this year.

Sinopec has almost identical numbers, expecting gas demand at 350-360 billion cubic meters. According to the major, the demand would come from power utilities and the industrial sector.

In 2020, China consumed 326.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas, of which 192.5 billion cubic meters came from domestic production. This was almost 10 percent higher than the domestic production figure for 2019. Imports also rose in 2020, by 5.3 percent to 140.3 billion cubic meters.

Tawny Kitaen: RIP -- May 7, 2021

... featuring Tawny Kitaen in the video. 

May 8, 2021, 6:17 p.m. CT: 96,434,980 views.

Soccer Update

Our granddaughter's high school soccer team took third place in the state of Texas in 5A division. The largest schools are 6A. Olivia, a freshman, made the varsity team, and at the award ceremony late last week, she was named to the second team for the district. There's a first team, a second team, and honorable mention. A freshman being named to the first or second team is a huge accomplishment. 

I haven't seen her play this year due to Covid restrictions. I will see her playing next autumn no doubt.

Now, that the school tournaments are over for the season, the "club" soccer leagues move to center stage.

Last night, in a regularly scheduled game, the opposing team brought in five "elite" guest players -- people who follow club soccer will know what this means. Olivia's team brought in no guest players. 

The game ended in a tie, 1 - 1. Olivia made the sole goal for our team. 

A tie is so much better than a loss in "club" soccer. Saving the team from a loss was a big deal.

They play again tonight. Regular season games will determine the seeding for the championship tournament which begins next week.

Later, we asked Olivia what she thought of the game. This is the analysis, coming from a freshman in high school:

They were actually pretty good. But the outside back I played against liked to mark me tight. That was interesting to play against because I could pretty much walk anywhere and she would follow me. This meant I was able to check one way and sprint the other and pick up lots of balls. Or I had lots of 1 v 1s with here. Pretty fun. Just tiring because of the heat and all the individual playing.

Pretty good analysis for a freshman high school player one would think. Ready to be a color analyst on television?

Later, see first comment regarding "guest" players. From social media:

It appears there could be many, many "guest" players. But the "guest" player can no longer play with her own team after stepping away from own team.

"Vaccine Hesitancy" -- Saturday, May 8, 2021

CDC data here.

Vaccine hesitancy:

  • today's (Saturday) data: 2,567,872 vaccinations given
  • last Saturday: 3,303,794 vaccinations give
  • Saturday prior to that (April 24, 2021): 3,318,230

On Saturday, April 10, 2021, a record 4,620,928 vaccinations were recorded for Saturday

The following Saturday, April 17, 2021, the number of vaccinations dropped to 3,589,620.

The previous Tuesday, April 13, 2021, Dr Fauci, et al, took the JNJ vaccine off the market, concerned about its safety. Four days later it was considered safe to return to the market. But by then, the damage had been done. Vaccinations dropped from a record (for a Saturday) 4.6 million to less than 3.6 million the following Saturday. 

Reminder: it is now recommended that everyone over the age of 16 years of age be vaccinated; only high risk groups and older folks were getting the vaccine on April 10, 2021.  

See column six.

Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Change from day before

Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered


May 8, 2021







May 1, 2021







April 24, 2021







April 17, 2021







April 10, 2021







April 3, 2021






Notes From All Over -- Saturday's Mid-Morning Edition -- May 8, 2021


Later, 5:59 p.m. CT: if the folks on the Atlantic Coast don't want to see a(n) historic gasoline shortage develop over Sunday/Monday, authorities would be well advised to nip this in the bud. And, yes, there are ways to do this.

Original Post  

Pipeline temporarily shut down: the Colonial Pipeline!

Truck driver shortage! Is there a nationwide truck driver shortage or is it regional? Is there a nationwide truck driver shortage driven by the re-opening of the economy? Is there a nationwide truck drive shortage being driven by the oil and gas industry? See below. I don't know. But there's a lot of talk about a national truck shortage but I've not seen the actual numbers.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

One-two punch (conspiracy thinking):

  • first punch: China releases Covid-19
  • second punch:China disrupts semiconductor shipping from Taiwan with regional shipping blockades;

CLR: YOLO. Harold Hamm doesn't hedge, it's been reported.

  • Apparently a number of E&P companies came up significantly short by hedging ... best example: EOG reports a $360 million derivatives loss -- didn't anticipate the surge in oil prices. -- Fast Money, CNBC.

Oil: based on comment from reader who gets "mailbox money" it is quite amazing how fast things can turn in energy (in either direction). CNBC Fast Money folks are noting the same thing. Between $50 and $65 it's all free cash flow. Producing 100,000 bopd works out to $15 x 100,000 = $1.5 million / day free cash flow = $500 million free cash flow over a year.

Oil: "super bullish buy signal"

  • CNBC Fast Money: not just bullish, but "super bullish"
  • watch staggering debt pay down
  • Paul Sankey noted: the difference between $55 Brent / $50 WTI and the price one sees on the television crawler, $70 Brent, for example, is all free cash flow
  • Paul Sankey provides "pair trades; recommendation from yesterday:
    • sell ARKK, will short;
    • buy XOP (S&P oil and gas E&P); will buy
    • three-month time frame

Texas news:

  • north Texas: reported largest gain in population in entire US "during pandemic"; social media link here;
  • associated: California population drops first time in state's history

Texas Covid news:

  • Texas Rangers: first (and only) MLB team to open stadium to full capacity; Biden, "Neanderthal" comment one month ago when decision made to open stadium; Tarrant County, home of Texas Rangers, shows decline in Covid cases; link here; social media link here;

Texas trucking: company offers highest-paid drivers $14,000 per week amid recruiting effort; link:

  • the average frack sand hauler typically earns between $10,000 and $13,000 per week
  • national shortage of truck drivers? Yup, they're all moving to Texas; probably many from California
    • cost of living much lower
    • gasoline much less expensive in Texas vs California
    • and, best of all, no state income tax

Texas Freeze: ERCOT unwittingly shut down natural gas during Texas freeze; link to Tsvetana Paraskova;

Hulu: awesome. Can't do this on Spectrum --

  • I can watch (and re-watch) all the CNBC episodes from this past week
  • I missed Fast Money last night; watching it now;

Jobs: how could the analysts get it so wrong? This from the day before the report came out. Analysts forecast a million new jobs -- the headline: Wall Street forecasts blowout payrolls; actual, about 270,000 new jobs; prior month revision was down.

Jobs during the pandemic: yesterday I posted a graphic at this post, and asked folks if they saw something else in this graphic?

  • with a few exceptions, all the blue states were at the bottom (bad)
    • Nevada, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York and California were at the very bottom
  • with a few exceptions, all the red states were at the top
    • Alaska, Utah, Kansas, Idaho, and Tennessee were at the top (very, very good)
  • but this is what I noted:
    • the only red state among the blue states at the bottom of the graphic: Iowa
    • Iowa may have a GOP governor, US senator, but I don't think anyone thinks of Iowa as a "red state"
  • the next "red" state near the bottom was Florida, and like Hawaii, and Nevada, Florida is all about tourism and services
  • in other words, remove a couple of "outliers" and it's all blue in the bottom half (bad) and all red at the top (good)
  • Nebraska and South Dakota were #6 and #7, respectively (good)
    • South Dakota had the most liberal attitude regarding social distancing, masking
    • two words: Sturgis Rally

Vaccine hesitancy:

  • if the president was really serious about folks getting their vaccinations, he would announce:
    • he would end the requirement for appointments; walk-ins would be widely available;
    • he would announce that mask mandates would end in one month;
    • he would announce that a ban on masks by the federal government;
  • right now, as long as 30% of the country is vaccinated, social distancing remains in place, and masking mandates exist, the urgency to get vaccinated is way down

Ten days to "flatten the curve." Are we in day 500?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here