Saturday, May 8, 2021

Notes From All Over -- Saturday's Mid-Morning Edition -- May 8, 2021


Later, 5:59 p.m. CT: if the folks on the Atlantic Coast don't want to see a(n) historic gasoline shortage develop over Sunday/Monday, authorities would be well advised to nip this in the bud. And, yes, there are ways to do this.

Original Post  

Pipeline temporarily shut down: the Colonial Pipeline!

Truck driver shortage! Is there a nationwide truck driver shortage or is it regional? Is there a nationwide truck driver shortage driven by the re-opening of the economy? Is there a nationwide truck drive shortage being driven by the oil and gas industry? See below. I don't know. But there's a lot of talk about a national truck shortage but I've not seen the actual numbers.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

One-two punch (conspiracy thinking):

  • first punch: China releases Covid-19
  • second punch:China disrupts semiconductor shipping from Taiwan with regional shipping blockades;

CLR: YOLO. Harold Hamm doesn't hedge, it's been reported.

  • Apparently a number of E&P companies came up significantly short by hedging ... best example: EOG reports a $360 million derivatives loss -- didn't anticipate the surge in oil prices. -- Fast Money, CNBC.

Oil: based on comment from reader who gets "mailbox money" it is quite amazing how fast things can turn in energy (in either direction). CNBC Fast Money folks are noting the same thing. Between $50 and $65 it's all free cash flow. Producing 100,000 bopd works out to $15 x 100,000 = $1.5 million / day free cash flow = $500 million free cash flow over a year.

Oil: "super bullish buy signal"

  • CNBC Fast Money: not just bullish, but "super bullish"
  • watch staggering debt pay down
  • Paul Sankey noted: the difference between $55 Brent / $50 WTI and the price one sees on the television crawler, $70 Brent, for example, is all free cash flow
  • Paul Sankey provides "pair trades; recommendation from yesterday:
    • sell ARKK, will short;
    • buy XOP (S&P oil and gas E&P); will buy
    • three-month time frame

Texas news:

  • north Texas: reported largest gain in population in entire US "during pandemic"; social media link here;
  • associated: California population drops first time in state's history

Texas Covid news:

  • Texas Rangers: first (and only) MLB team to open stadium to full capacity; Biden, "Neanderthal" comment one month ago when decision made to open stadium; Tarrant County, home of Texas Rangers, shows decline in Covid cases; link here; social media link here;

Texas trucking: company offers highest-paid drivers $14,000 per week amid recruiting effort; link:

  • the average frack sand hauler typically earns between $10,000 and $13,000 per week
  • national shortage of truck drivers? Yup, they're all moving to Texas; probably many from California
    • cost of living much lower
    • gasoline much less expensive in Texas vs California
    • and, best of all, no state income tax

Texas Freeze: ERCOT unwittingly shut down natural gas during Texas freeze; link to Tsvetana Paraskova;

Hulu: awesome. Can't do this on Spectrum --

  • I can watch (and re-watch) all the CNBC episodes from this past week
  • I missed Fast Money last night; watching it now;

Jobs: how could the analysts get it so wrong? This from the day before the report came out. Analysts forecast a million new jobs -- the headline: Wall Street forecasts blowout payrolls; actual, about 270,000 new jobs; prior month revision was down.

Jobs during the pandemic: yesterday I posted a graphic at this post, and asked folks if they saw something else in this graphic?

  • with a few exceptions, all the blue states were at the bottom (bad)
    • Nevada, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York and California were at the very bottom
  • with a few exceptions, all the red states were at the top
    • Alaska, Utah, Kansas, Idaho, and Tennessee were at the top (very, very good)
  • but this is what I noted:
    • the only red state among the blue states at the bottom of the graphic: Iowa
    • Iowa may have a GOP governor, US senator, but I don't think anyone thinks of Iowa as a "red state"
  • the next "red" state near the bottom was Florida, and like Hawaii, and Nevada, Florida is all about tourism and services
  • in other words, remove a couple of "outliers" and it's all blue in the bottom half (bad) and all red at the top (good)
  • Nebraska and South Dakota were #6 and #7, respectively (good)
    • South Dakota had the most liberal attitude regarding social distancing, masking
    • two words: Sturgis Rally

Vaccine hesitancy:

  • if the president was really serious about folks getting their vaccinations, he would announce:
    • he would end the requirement for appointments; walk-ins would be widely available;
    • he would announce that mask mandates would end in one month;
    • he would announce that a ban on masks by the federal government;
  • right now, as long as 30% of the country is vaccinated, social distancing remains in place, and masking mandates exist, the urgency to get vaccinated is way down

Ten days to "flatten the curve." Are we in day 500?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

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