Thursday, May 11, 2023

Environmentalists Win A Big One -- SCOTUS Rules Against US Pork Industry -- May 11, 2023

Locator: 44625PORK.

Huge, huge implications for transportation industry. 

Link here.

The ruling authored by Justice Neil Gorsuch protects the ability of states to enact laws aimed at protecting the health and welfare of the public even if the measures have an impact out of state.
Groups that back California had warned that a broad ruling against it could limit the ability of states to enact laws on a whole range of issues, including measures aimed at addressing climate change, such as by efforts to reduce reliance on fossil fuels by promoting renewable energy.

States' rights.

This sort of ends the car industry's worries about which way to go -- ICE vs EVs --  with regard to various CAFE and emissions standards among the states and the Federal government. This issue is now in the hands of the California voters.

The California law is not yet in effect. 

The price of pork is tracked here.

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Putting Things In Perspective

The grandsons went shopping today.

With their dad.

Their mother got a t-shirt.


Goldilocks Economy -- May 11, 2023

Locator: 44624ECON.

Inflation: wholesale prices rise less than estimate

Misery index, according to Liz: the misery index has fallen to its lowest since February, 2021.

Consumer stress, according to Liz: easing; change in all components has come back to near 0%.
reminder: it was >30% at worst point last year.


Airlines
: Emirates logs record profits; passenger numbers surge by 123%. Profit $3 billion.

 TSM: raises dividend.

Banks: regional crisis not yet over. PacWest tumbles 20% a day after "everyone" thought this issue was "contained." Not.

PARA, DIS+, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video -- May 11, 2023

Locator: 44623SW.

DIS is making BUD look great. LOL. 

IIRC: DIS+ lost 600,000 subscribers in the US this last quarter. DIS+ lost four million subscribers in one quarter --  tries to hide the bleeding by saying almost all of that was in India. But 600K in the US is not trivial.


Most interesting: analysts and "Wall Street" are doing what they can to sugar coat this story. Isn't working.

PARA? It's only getting worse. This is a Warren Buffett BRK pick:

For me: Amazon Prime Video ("free"); Pluto TV (free). Very, very rarely any more, Hulu, for sports. 

Tonight: exclusive, king and queen of country -- Amazon Prime Video -- ACM Awards. Are you kidding me! Award ceremony just down the street from where we live: Frisco, TX. Link here.

Op-ed over at CNBC: streaming wars are over. Link here. No, they're not. I guess it depends on the definition of "streaming wars." CNBC's thesis: the industry has to quit concentrating on churning; they need a new revenue stream. Best candidate: gaming. Will Amazon Prime or Meta beat them at this, too?

Endurance Not Likely To Endure; Polestar On The Ropes; Nikola Pivots -- May 11, 2023

Locator: 44622EVs.

Nikola: pivots; exits EV partnership in Europe; to focus on hydrogen on US.


Polestar
: to cut workforce; delays push SUV to 2024. Swedish.


Endurance, might not endure:



WTI Can't Hold -- Goldilocks Economy -- May 11, 2023

Locator: 44621B.

On my radar scope today:

  • streaming wars; DIS+; PARA;
  • EVs: last week, Endurance, now Polestar
  • Goldilocks economy: the numbers keep improving; airlines; gasoline below $3 / gallon
  • misery index update
  • May 11, 2023: the grand re-opening;
  • Ukraine: with Putiin on the ropes, Trump says he would end the war in 24 hours;
  • Frisco, TX: ACM Awards -- tonight -- Dolly Parton, Garth Brooks

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 39.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: #$71.61.

Natural gas: $2.208.

Friday, May 12, 2023: 14 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 321 for the year
39271, conf, Kraken, Sumner 1-36-225 1H,
37177, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-6,

Thursday, May 11, 2023: 12 for the month; 64 for the quarter, 319 for the year
38877, conf, Whiting, Smith 12-7TFX

RBN Energy: Canadian heavy oil prices increasingly linked to global oil market developments, part 2

Since the start of this year, Canadian heavy crude oil prices have been steadily improving relative to the light crude oil benchmark of West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Improved access to and through the U.S. as far south as the Gulf Coast has contributed to these better conditions. At the same time, the traditional driver of increasing refinery demand after the end of the most recent maintenance season is being aided by the restart of two Midwest refineries that have typically been consumers of Canadian heavy oil. With international competitive pressures also easing and export buyers remaining active in the Gulf Coast, heavy oil prices could remain in a sweet spot for a good portion of this year. In today’s RBN blog, we look at why international competition for Canadian heavy crude will only intensify next year as vastly increased export access from Canada’s West Coast becomes available.

Western Canada’s heavy crude oil — and its pricing — seem to be in a good place these days. Unfettered by infrastructure constraints such as insufficient pipeline export capacity, Canadian heavy crude oil has been flowing without a hitch to where it is needed most. The price discount applied to Western Canadian Select (WCS), the heavy oil price benchmark in Western Canada, has been narrowing against important trading hubs in the North American oil trading complex such as Cushing, OK, and the Gulf Coast, increasingly reflecting a price difference that is based only on quality and pipeline transportation costs. To top things off, it appears that exports of Canadian heavy crude from the Gulf Coast have rebounded in recent months and may be contributing to the narrowing of the price discount applied to WCS. What once seemed impossible — a Canadian crude whose price may be more closely linked to international oil market developments — may finally be with us to stay.

BUD In Deep Doo-Doo — May 11, 2023

Locator: 44623BUD.

Mulvaney trending … in a good way.

Southern Border Celebrates Grand Re-Opening Today — May 11, 2023

Locator: 44624BORDER.

For the archives.

Sort of reminds me of “Bob’s Burgers.”

TSM Raises Dividend — May 11, 2023

Locator: 44620CHIPS.

Headline of the day (caution: this headline could easily be misread):