WTI Can't Hold -- Goldilocks Economy -- May 11, 2023

Locator: 44621B.

On my radar scope today:

• streaming wars; DIS+; PARA;
• EVs: last week, Endurance, now Polestar
• Goldilocks economy: the numbers keep improving; airlines; gasoline below $3 / gallon
• misery index update
• May 11, 2023: the grand re-opening;
• Ukraine: with Putiin on the ropes, Trump says he would end the war in 24 hours;
• Frisco, TX: ACM Awards -- tonight -- Dolly Parton, Garth Brooks

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 39.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: #$71.61.

Natural gas: $2.208.

Friday, May 12, 2023: 14 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 321 for the year
39271, conf, Kraken, Sumner 1-36-225 1H,
37177, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-6,

Thursday, May 11, 2023: 12 for the month; 64 for the quarter, 319 for the year
38877, conf, Whiting, Smith 12-7TFX, 

RBN Energy: Canadian heavy oil prices increasingly linked to global oil market developments, part 2. 

Since the start of this year, Canadian heavy crude oil prices have been steadily improving relative to the light crude oil benchmark of West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Improved access to and through the U.S. as far south as the Gulf Coast has contributed to these better conditions. At the same time, the traditional driver of increasing refinery demand after the end of the most recent maintenance season is being aided by the restart of two Midwest refineries that have typically been consumers of Canadian heavy oil. With international competitive pressures also easing and export buyers remaining active in the Gulf Coast, heavy oil prices could remain in a sweet spot for a good portion of this year. In today’s RBN blog, we look at why international competition for Canadian heavy crude will only intensify next year as vastly increased export access from Canada’s West Coast becomes available.

Western Canada’s heavy crude oil — and its pricing — seem to be in a good place these days. Unfettered by infrastructure constraints such as insufficient pipeline export capacity, Canadian heavy crude oil has been flowing without a hitch to where it is needed most. The price discount applied to Western Canadian Select (WCS), the heavy oil price benchmark in Western Canada, has been narrowing against important trading hubs in the North American oil trading complex such as Cushing, OK, and the Gulf Coast, increasingly reflecting a price difference that is based only on quality and pipeline transportation costs. To top things off, it appears that exports of Canadian heavy crude from the Gulf Coast have rebounded in recent months and may be contributing to the narrowing of the price discount applied to WCS. What once seemed impossible — a Canadian crude whose price may be more closely linked to international oil market developments — may finally be with us to stay.