Sunday, April 22, 2018

DUCs -- National Data -- April 22, 2018

The big question is whether this along with a marked expansion in the volume of U.S. drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) and rig count, which in early April 2018 reached its highest point in three years, is enough to suppress prices.
The answer could surprise investors because fundamentals indicate that higher oil is here to stay, for as long as Saudi Arabia and Russia don’t aggressively unwind the production caps established in November 2016.
EIA data: DUCs

For newbies: note -- this data is DUC data only. It does not include producing wells that are temporarily inactive. In the Bakken the number of inactive wells may approximate the number of DUCs.


Quick! What is the etymology of the name of Albuquerque, NM?

It comes from Alburquerque, Extremadura, Spain. The Spanish "Alburquerque" is spelled with an extra "r." The Albuquerque in New Mexico is spelled with one less "r." Some say the "r" was dropped/removed to make the name easier to pronounce. Actually, I think I'm wrong on that. I think, Alburquerque comes from the explorer, Alfonso de Albuquerque (which wiki spells without the first "r," which, of course, means that comment about the city name removing the "r" to make it easier to pronounce cannot be correct. Whatever .So where was Alfonso, 1453 - 1515, born? Near Lisbon, Portugal. Multiple expeditions to India. Conquered Malacca. Reached China.

So, Albuquerque (NM) comes from Alburquerque (Spain/Portugal)? What, or better said, who else comes from Alburquerque, Spain (or at least the landlocked province of Extremadura)?

The conquistadors. The very same ones that "conquered" South, Central, and North America.

The conquistadors from landlocked Extremadura. (Christopher Columbus also has a connection to Extremadura.)

The conquistadors: Pizarro; Orellana; Balboa; and, de Soto.

Francisco Pizarro, born in Trujillo, conquered the Inca Empire, 1471 - 1541.

Francisco de Orellana, born in Trujillo, 1546 - completed the first known navigation of the entire length of the Amazon River; died, 1546, during second expedition of the Amazon.

Vasco Nunez de Balboa, 1475 - 1519; crossed the Isthmus of Panama, becoming the first European to lead an expedition to have seen or reached the Pacific from the New World. His father was a  hidalgo (nobleman); an exception to most of the conquistadors. Also born in landlocked Extremadura but in Jerez de los Cabelleros about 120 miles southwest of Trujillo. Albuquerque is about 80 miles west of Trujillo.

Hernando de Soto, 1495 - 1542, another conquistador; led the Spanish and European expedition deep into the territory of modern-day southeast America (Florida to Arkansas). Also born in Jerez de los Caballeros, Extremadura.

Hernan Cores, 1485 - 1547; caused the fall of the Aztec Empire and brought large portions of what is now mainland Mexico under the rule of the King of Castile (Spain). Born in Medellin, forty miles south of Trujillo. 

I guess it was "just one of those things" that the early European explorers for North, Central, and South America all came from a small region of landlocked Spain near the eastern border of Portugal.

This area is considered so backward that it has become a subject of farce. In the Spanish version of the British comedy series Fawlty Towers (one of our favorite British comedies), Manuel, the idiotic waiter, hails from Extremadura.

The geography lesson and history lesson for today.

Random Update Of Four CLR Wells With Significant Jump In Production -- April 22, 2018

Four CLR wells with jump in production. FracFocus has no data for evidence of a re-frack and there are no sundry forms (yet) suggesting these wells have been re-fracked.

I've posted the data and the updates at this post. See also this post.

Jump In Production
For those who don't want to go through all that clicking to older posts, here is the data (this page won't be updated):

#22235, API - 33-053-03940; FracFocus: no re-frack data;

#22375, API - 33-053-03972; FracFocus: no re-frack data;

#19740, API - 33-053-03310; FracFocus: no re-frack data;

#19590, API - 33-053-03272; FracFocus: no re-frack data; 

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The graphic:

Random Update Of Statoil Roscoe And Richard Wells In Banks Oil Field -- April 22, 2018

The well:
  • 17755, 543, Statoil, Roscoe 2H-8, Banks, t5/09; cum 316K 2/18;
No evidence this well was re-fracked (FracFocus - 33-053-02960; no sundry form)

Neighboring wells that would impact this well:
  • 22807, 3,793, Statoil, Richard 8-5 2H, Banks; API - 33-053-04096; , t4/13; cum 370K 2/18; also with huge jump 6/17;
  • 30942, 506, Statoil, Richard 8-5 4TFH, Banks, t9/16; cum 241K 2/18;
Recent production data for #17755:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Recent production for #22807, no evidence this well was re-fracked (FracFocus or sundry form):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The graphic:

Commentary On DAPL: Social Media And The Human Race -- Say Anything Blog -- For The Archives -- April 22, 2018

I've not read this yet but a reader sent me the link and I want to get it posted before I forget. It's not normally the "stuff" I might post, but a quick glance suggests it is worth posting for the archives. By the way, DAPL is still "in the courts."

The link is over at Say Anything Blog, "Ladd Erickson: Social Media and the Human Race: A DAPL Protest Postscript."

The Art Page
For The Granddaughters

I stumbled across this book at Barnes and Noble. It's a keeper. I will get it for my wife. She will share it with Sophia -- another budding artist.

The Art of Beatrix Potter: Sketches, Paintings, and Illustrations, text by Emily Zach, c. 2016. 

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- April 22, 2018

Friday, April 27, 2018:33794, drl, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Berner 4-19-18-157N-99W,  Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
33589, SI/NC, BR, Anderson Ranch 2A TFH, Camel Butte, no production data,
32973, SI/NC, MRO, Joshua USA 13-23TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, no production data,

Thursday, April 26, 2018:
32974, SI/NC, MRO, Jorgenson USA 12-23H, Reunion Bay, no production data,
32804, 1,723, CLR, Ryden 5-24H1, Jim Creek, 4 sections, Three Forks B1, 60 stages; 15.8 million lbs a nice well; t12/17; cum 51K 2/18;
29845, 2,155, CLR, Stangeland 5-7H, Crazy Man Creek, 4 sections, 59 stages; 9.8 million lbs; a huge well; t12/17; cum 120K 2/18;
29275, 474, Oasis, Drummond 55-1 42-21 5B, Missouri Ridge, 50 stages; 20 million lbs; mesh/large/large ceramic, t11/17; cum 52K 2/18;

Wednesday, April 25, 2018:
33950, 1,938, Slawson, Wizard Federal 1 SLH,  Big Bend, 4 sections, 44 stages; 8.6 million lbs, large/small, t1/18; cum 32K 2/18;
33793, drl, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Nelson 4-30-31-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
32975, SI/NC, MRO, Jerome USA 12-23TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,

Tuesday, April 24, 2018:
33949, 74 (no typo), Slawson, Jugard Federal 4-35-26TFH, Big Bend, Three Forks, 44 stages; 8.6 million lbs; large/small/plug&perf, t1/18; cum 23K after 29 days;
29661, 503, Oasis, Twobins 5501 41-21 9TX, Missouri Ridge, Three Forks, 50 stages; 4 million lbs; mesh/large/medium/ceramic, t9/17; cum 36K 2/18;
29273, 478, Oasis, Drummond 5501 42-21 3B, Missouri Ridge, 50 stages; 10 million lbs; mesh/large/ceramic, t11/17; bcum 64K 2/18;

Monday, April 23, 2018:
34015, SI/NC, XTO, Serrahn 11X-5EXH, Siverston, no production data,
34014, SI/NC, XTO, Serrahn 11X-5A, Siverston, no production data,
33814, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23D-14 1H, Charlson, no production data,
33792, drl, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Berner 9-19-18-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,

Sunday, April 22, 2018:
34013, SI/NC, XTO, Serrahn 11X-5E, Siverston, no production data,
34012, SI/NC, XTO, Serrahn 11X-5B, Siverston, no production data,
33791, drl, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Nelson 9-30-31-157N-99W, Lone Tree, Lake, no production data,

Saturday, April 21. 2018:
32346, SI/NC, BR, CCU Mainstreeeter 8-2-30MBH, Corral Creek, no production data,
28898, 455, Oasis, Drummond 5501 41-21 8T, Missouri Ridge, Three Forks, 50 stages; 4 million lbs; mesh/resin coated/large white/medium white; t11/17; cum 50K 2/18;
28897, 492, Oasis, Drummond 5501 41-21 7B, Missouri Ridge, 50 stages; 19 million lbs; mesh/large white/large ceramic, t11/17; cum 48K 2/18;

Idle Rambling On A Sunday Morning -- Free Speech; Privacy Data; Click Bait; Tankers: And, Soaring Profits

I'm not sure what is worse: trolling on the internet (to which I plead guilty) or click bait (misleading headlines).

By the way, with regard to the recent Facebook / Zuckerberg testimony in Congress there were at least two issues: a) misuse of personal data (anyone who thought their personal data was not going to be sold at some point was simply naive); and, b) freedom of speech. With regard to (a) I have no comment. With regard to (b) it is very, very concerning to me that the US Congress appears to want a private / public company to start censoring/managing "free speech."

But I digress. Where was I? Oh, yes, misleading headlines. The most recent example, again (not surprising) is from The headline: Shell's profits soar from strong Asian demand.

I thought we were going to see Shell's quarterly earnings. In fact, in the big scheme of things, a fairly minor footnote -- and, thus, the misleading headline and clickbait.

Having said that, when one gets past the headline, it's a pretty good story with several story lines.

When I remarked to my son-in-law that analysts forecast 5 to 6 million bopd (up from the current 2 million bopd) in the Permian and that the Bakken could set new records, he thought it a bit incredulous, considering that the daily supply/demand imbalance might be in the neighborhood of a million bbls per day, and that an increase in US production to that extent could be quite concerning -- and somewhat unlikely.

So, back to the oilprice story. One story line: "strong Asian demand."

Here's the lede, data coming from Reuters:
Oil major Shell has snapped up over 8 million barrels of June-loading crude oil grades from the Middle East and Russia and has resold some of the cargoes in Asia, taking advantage of the strong Asian demand.
Wider Brent premium over the Middle Eastern benchmark Dubai this month has made Atlantic crude oil supplies more expensive than the Middle Eastern and Russian supplies, which are priced off the Dubai benchmark.
Shell has bought six cargoes of Qatar Marine, four cargoes of Upper Zakum, three cargoes of Russian Sokol, and at least one Banoco Arab Medium and one al-Shaheen cargo from various sellers.
The Anglo-Dutch oil major has resold one of the Qatar Marine cargoes to a customer in Thailand at a premium of more than US$0.20 per barrel to the official selling price (OSP) of the grade, compared to premiums of between US$0.10 and US$0.20 a barrel in previous deals. 
The article also gave me an opportunity to review the capacity of sea-going tankers. From the EIA:
Long Range class ships are the most common in the global tanker fleet, as they are used to carry both refined products and crude oil.
These ships can access most large ports that ship crude oil and petroleum products. An LR1 tanker can carry between 345,000 barrels and 615,000 barrels of gasoline (14.5-25.8 million gallons) or between 310,000 barrels and 550,000 barrels of light sweet crude oil.
The writer says Shell "snapped up" 8 million bbls; there were "at least" 15 tankers involved -- that averages out to  500,000 bbls/tanker.

So, it all fits.

But even 8 million bbls at a premium of 20 cents/bbl seems like a pittance to a company like Shell. Eight million x 20 cents = $1.6 million. If so, that hardly seems like Shell's profits are "soaring" basing on this story. Maybe I'm missing something. Market cap for Shell: $315 billion; cash flow, $35 billion.

By the way, I find nothing wrong with trolling. It tends to bring out "opinions" we might not otherwise see. Actually, it's quite funny. I just read the NYTimes article on Trump/Stallone/boxer pardon and if the writer of the NYTimes article is not trolling, I obviously don't know the definition of trolling. Same with the Huffington Post piece on President Trump going down to his "White House" in Florida.

But now, we've gone too far afield. Time to move on. 

North Korea

If nothing else, the North Korea story reinforces that the "mainstream media" drives the news. Two months ago, reading the mainstream media, we were led to believe that Trump was leading us into a nuclear war with North Korea. That seemed to be the leading story every day.

It is amazing how fast that story disappeared. Literally overnight.

One begins to wonder if the North Korean story was not "fake news" all along. How many past administrations were "snookered" by this fake news? Maybe the South Koreans were right all along. To them it never seemed to be all that big a deal. At least not recently.

The Nobel peace prize can only be shared by three people. It will go to: Kim, Xi, and Moon. One might be smart to get a copyright / trademark on an ice cream snack bar that will be the rage next summer: the Kim-chi Moon pies. With the legalization of marijuana going viral, the desire for munchies will go hyperbolic (as Mike Filloon would say).

You heard it hear first.


This will be "Part 4" over at the this post.

This is from the latest issue of London Review of Books, "Survivors of the Syrian Wars," Patrick Cockburn.

Later, I may go through the recent history of how we got where are now, but for now, let's just skip to the bottom line, at least according to Cockburn:
With the fall of Afrin to the Turks and the likely fall of Eastern Ghouta to the Syrian government mark a new phase in the war in Syria.

Syria is now divided into three zones, each under a now different authority and supported by a different foreign sponsor. [Assad's Syrians; the Syrian Kurds; and, the Turks.]

Isolated and vulnerable enclaves hostile to the predominant local power, like Afrin and Eastern Ghouta, are being eliminated. The zones vary greatly in size and population; Assad controls territory where about 12 million Syrians live; the Kurdish-held region has a population of a little more than two million, under the direct or indirect rule of Turkey.

These three are the survivors of seven years of war.

Other groups -- notably IS, which once ruled a third of Syria -- have been all but eliminated.

But the frontiers between these zones are still fluid and all sides believe they have something to fight for. Assad wants to retake the whole of Syria. Turkey wants to destroy the de facto Kurdish state the Kurds want to maintain it.

Before peace returns to Syria these issues will have to be decided on the battlefield or through diplomatic agreement. There will have to be a new balance of powers not just between local actors but between their foreign sponsors: the US, which has provided air support for the Kurds since 2014; Russia, which has done the same for Assad since 2015; and, Turkey, which now has a powerful military force in northern Syria.

[On the ground]: ... the war will go on for at least another four years until a stable balance of forces is established.
One needs to look at the current situation in Syria and this new analysis (the war will go on for at least another four years until a stable balance of forces is established) and then think about Trump's "plan" to pull out of Syria sooner than later.

  • when ISIS controlled a third of the country, "everyone" wanted to destroy ISIS (the US, Russia, Assad, the Kurds, Turkey)
  • now that ISIS has been all but eliminated, "everyone" wants the US to leave (except the Kurds): Trump, Russia, Assad, and Turkey
  • when the US leaves, "everyone" will want the Kurds to leave (Russia, Assad, and Turkey)
Too Much To Go Through Now ... Scott Adams ... "
... how Kanye showed the way to the Golden Age ..."

Wow. again Scott Adams is right on top of current events ... pretty much on the money ....