Sunday, January 26, 2025

This Is Nice: ATT, Chord Energy, And Diamondback For Dividends -- January 26, 2025

Locator: 48398DIV.

CNBC: link here.

I occasionally use T (ATT) as a place to "park" cash. More often, I use SCHD.

I've never held FANG.

Chord Energy is the most exciting operator in the Bakken right now: Whiting, Oasis, and now Enerplus. 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Longer version here.  

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Updating Some Very Old Helis Wells -- January 26, 2025

Locator: 10010HELIS.

My database suggests that Helis was issued its first permit in the current boom in 2007.

Here is the status of wells for permits issued to Helis in 2011. I think the narratives for several of the wells will give one an idea of the well design used by Helis, the formation target, etc.:

  • 20591, 2,656, Oasis/QEP/Helis, Jones 4-15/22H, Three Forks, Blue Buttes oil field, t4/12; cum 586K 11/17; 28 stages; 3.4 million pounds; 100% ceramics; vertical hole, 137 hours; horizontal, 286 hours; 28 days total; middle Bakken 38' thick here; "recently the NDGS has reclassified the lower approximate 10' of the Lower Bakken Shale as a stratigraphically and litholgically distinct unit. The unit now referred to as the Pronghorn Member is present in Blue Buttes Field. The unit thickness is variable and in some wells the interval has not been observed.... gas show in the Three Forks was encouraging .. 1,000 to 1,500 units .. increased to 4,000 units... then to 6,500 units...10-20' trip flare...." cum 681K 1/22; cum 738K 11/24;
  • 20780, 2,190, Oasis/QEP/Helis, Henderson 1-28/33H, Grail, t6/12; cum 495K 11/17; cum 608K 1/22; cum 651K 11/24;
  • 21052, PA/1,684, Oasis/QEP/Helis, Moberg 15-22/15H, Three Forks, Grail, t12/11; cum 298K 11/17; 28 stages; 3.1 million pounds; 100% ceramics; vertical, 132 hours; horizontal, 199 hours; spud August 26; reached total depth on November 6 (the surface was spud August 26; the big rig did not re-enter until October 4), so about 32 days total drilling; Pronghorn about 6' feet thick in this well, but averages 10' in this area; 1,500 units of gas; 3 - 5' flares. Off line 3/18; cum 304K 3/18; cum 443K 11/24;
  • 21054, 1,601, Oasis/QEP/Helis, Veeder 1-27/34H, Grail, t2/12; cum 345K 11/17; cum 410K 1/22;
  • 21331, A/AB/2,164, Oasis/QEP/Helis, Foreman 5-2/1H, Three Forks, Spotted Horn, t1/12; cum 368K 11/17; 28 stages; 3.4 million pounds proppants; 100% ceramics; vertical 144 hours; horizontal, 308 hours; 33 days total; "recently the NDGS has reclassified the lower approximate 10' of the Lower Bakken Shale as a stratigraphically and litholgically distinct unit. The unit now referred to as the Pronghorn Member is present in Spotted Horn and surrounding fields; the Pronghorn is approx 8 feet thick in the Forman well; in the Three Forks, gas units as high as 3,413 units; flares were 2 - 5' in height; a sustained 10 - 15' flare was burned for about 30 minutes near the end." Off line 11/20; cum 408K 11/20; cum 440K 11/24;
  • 21437, 2,256, Oasis/QEP/Helis, Lawlar 16-8/5H, Grail, t4/12; cum 386K 11/17; cum 457K 1/22; cum 483K 11/24;
  • 21456, 2,014, Oasis/QEP/Helis, TAT 13-35/26H, Grail; t7/12; cum416K 11/17; cum 513K 1/22; cum 556K 11/24;
  • 21521, IA/1,521, Oasis/QEP/Helis, Dailey 4-12/13H, Spotted horn, t3/12; cum 419K 11/17; cum 440K 1/22; recently off line; back on line; cum 441K 2/22; off line;
  • 21564, 2,288, Oasis/QEP/Helis, Levang Federal 14-21/16H, Blue Buttes;  t8/12; cum 649K 11/17; cum 699K 1/22; cum 710K 11/24;
For newbies: these are huge wells. It looks like many will hit 100,000 bbls in the first three months of production; all should hit 100,000 bbls in the first six months of production, or certainly come close. This is as good a string of wells that I have seen anywhere in the Bakken since I began following it in 2006.

QEP did their homework.

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41 Years Old -- An Old Madison Well Finally Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- Drilled Back in 1984 -- January 26, 2025

Locator: 48396MADISON.

This well was originally tracked here. 

The well:

  • 10661, IA/1,204, Madison, 316 (19 days); 0, 622 (30 days); 632 (31 days); Glass Bluff, t5/84; cum 487K 10/16; cum 504K 11/24; but very sporadic production;
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Updating The Enerplus Hot Pepper Pads In McGregory Buttes -- January 26, 2025

Locator: 10010HOTPEPPER

Update

January 26, 2025, wells of interest:

  • 34776, 6357, Enerplus, Thai 148-94-11C-2H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t6/19; cum 212K 11/24;
  • 34778, 674, Enerplus, Serrano 148-94-11D-2H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t6/19; cum 431K 11/24;
  • 34779, PNC/DRL, Enerplus, Hatch 148-94-11D-2H, McGregory Buttes, t--; cum --;
  • 34780, PNC/DRL, Enerplus, Paprika 148-94-11D-2H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t--; cum --;

January 26, 2025: all those wells on conf status are now PNC. The maps:


May 18, 2017: production data for 20850 and 20851 have been updated; the other wells remain on  conf status.

June 17, 2011: "Anonymous" is correct and I was wrong: the eight wells are one two separate pads; the pads are close together, but they are, in fact, separate pads, at least based on the GIS server.  See comments below.

Original Post

This appears to be another record in the Bakken: eight wells will be placed on one pad. [See comments below: folks much smarter than I feel that these are simply two pads placed in adjoining quadrants, and don't constitute a single pad. I won't argue. But I'm waiting for the satellite photos. My gut feeling is the land "between" the two sets of wells will be tied up with oil activity.]
  • 20846, PNC, Enerplus, Axe 148-94 11A-1H, NWNE 11-148-94W
  • 20847, PNC, Enerplus, Poblano 148-94 02D-1H, NWNE 11-148-94W
  • 20848, PNC, Enerplus, Vise 148-94 11A-2H TF, NWNE 11-148-94W
  • 20849, PNC, Enerplus, Cayenne 148-94 02D-2H TF, NWNE 11-148-94W
  • 20850, 710, Enerplus, Jalapeno 148-94 02C-3H, NENW 11-148-94W, t1/12; cum 182K 11/17; cum 265K 11/24;
  • 20851, 782, Enerplus, Forge 148-94 11B-3H, NENW 11-148-94W, t1/12; cum 234K 11/17; cum 343K 11/24;
  • 20852, PNC, Enerplus, Anvil 148-94 11B-4H TF, NENW 11-148-94W
  • 20853, PNC, Enerplus, Habanero 148-94 02C-4H TF, NENW 11-148-94W
It looks like four will be middle Bakken (MB) and four will be Three Forks (TF).
The wells are being spud from east to west. Most likely two of the MB wells and two of the TF wells will run north, and two of each will run south.

Most likely the Axe-Vise-Forge-Anvil will run the same direction; the peppers will run the opposite direction. 

Zenergy already has a permit (confidential) in section 14, just south of section 11. Permit #18129.

Enerplus already has two wells on two separate pads (four all together) in an adjacent section, section 12-148-94. Enerplus also has two wells on one pad in section 13-148-94.

McGregory Buttes is in the southwest corner of the reservation, a very active and very productive area.

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Three Wells On The Hess 15-Well Pad In Alger Oil Field Have Recently Come Off Line -- January 26, 2025

Locator: 48394RIERSGAARD.

Updating Hess' 15-well oil pad west of Ross with EN-Riersgaard wells and EN-State wells, in section 16-156-93, Alger oil field.

These wells are tracked here. In June, 2024, about six months ago, several wells on that large pad came off line. These were the three I saw; I could have missed one or two, but I doubt it:

  • *****25574, 333, Hess, EN-Riersgard 156-93-1718H-4, 4 sections, t12/13; cum 93K 12/19, but intermittent production, 12/19; cum 119K 1/22; cum 1331K 6/24;
  • *****25576, IA/447, Hess, EN-Riersgard 156-93-1718H-6, 4 sections, t12/13; cum 155K 6/19; cum 176K 1/22; cum 191K 6/24;
  • *****21131, AI/705, Hess, EN-Riersgard-156-93-1718H-2, 4 sections, t4/12; cum 282K 12/19; cum 304K 1/22; cum 329K 6/24; off line; 

I don't see any activity suggesting a reason why these wells are off line.

The maps:

 
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Angelica Uses A MacBook -- Bless Her Heart -- January 26, 2025

Locator: 48392TECH.

Updates

Later, 4:44 p.m. CT: link here.


Original Post

It took me less than 30 minutes to research this issue and post these thoughts on this subject overnight: link here. 

Because I did that, I now understand the note from Angelica (see below). Twenty-four hours ago, this would have been gibberish. But now I get it.

So, what do I get?

  • LLM
  • 7b

"7b" means "seven billion" and seven billion means "7 billion parameters."

Go back to the link above and "parameters" are briefly explained.

The more parameters that are used, the more computing power that is required: computing power (calculations) = calculations / time * time.

Just to tell you how "spooky" this is, or to put this in context:

  • the chatbot that Angelica is using, uses 7 billion parameters to come up with an answer.
  • to put that in perspective, in December 2024 DeepSeek-V3 was launched. It came with 671 billion parameters ....
  • and then this: GPT-4: estimated to have 1.8 trillion parameters. 

If this doesn't convince you we are in the Sixth Industrial Revolution, nothing will.

By the way, who "owns" ChatGPT-4?


Can you invest in OpenAI?


Three outcomes regarding this initiative:

  • it will wither and die on the vine (Musk's opinion)
  • it won't die right away, maybe never, but it will take a long time to become a "thing"
  • Monday, tomorrow, we see fireworks

By the way, those folks telling us that AI is still "not making any money for those who use it," are entirely wrong. This is like the horse-and-buggy driver seeing his first ICE and reaching this conclusion -- "the latter  (the ICE) is too noisy and too hard to start, and where does one get gasoline? The ICE will never be a thing."

From Angelica this morning:

And note: Angelica uses a MacBook. Bless her heart.

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Legacy Fund Deposits -- December, 2024, And January, 2025 Data

Locator: 48391LEGACYFUND.

Monthly deposits.

Legacy Fund data here. 

North Dakota budget: probably easiest to read is at Ballotpedia.

North Dakota state office of management and budget.

Deposits:

  • October, 2024: 65,328,912
  • November, 2024: $58.502,330
  • December, 2024: $57,830,316.61
  • January, 2025: $60,167,006.11

Graphics:

December, 2024, deposits:


January, 2025, deposits:

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Trump Freezes DOE Spending -- The Only Reason This Not Headline News Is Because He's Doing This Across The Board -- January 26, 2025

Locator: 44781TRUMP.

Link here.

From wiki:

Wow, I bet it drives Michael Bloomberg nuts that Trump is president, and, he, Michael Bloomberg, is not. 

******************************
Debt Ceiling

On another note -- the debt ceiling.

This needs to be fact checked but apparently Elizabeth Warren agrees with Trump on this -- the debt limit needs to be eliminated. 

Link here.

In the big scheme of things, both Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump have a lot in common.

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A Grayson Mill Wisness Federal Well In Westberg Finally Went Over 500K Bbls Cumulative Crude Oil -- Drilled In July, 2011 -- January 26, 2025

Locator: 44780B.

The well:

  • 18691, 3,731, Grayson Mill/Newfield, Wisness Federal 152-96-4-2H, t7/11; cum 339K 10/15; cum 501K 11/24;  recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202430685716154300128810
BAKKEN10-202431800773157317730530
BAKKEN9-20242747149773211920110
BAKKEN8-202431866746182365635320
BAKKEN7-202431693779120263325090
BAKKEN6-20242945954653182917210
BAKKEN5-202431703652193294128170
BAKKEN4-2024309911039247399438760
BAKKEN3-202430784631270301929080
BAKKEN2-20242910021121345405639440
BAKKEN1-202431945853260457144470
BAKKEN12-20233110421192237420240780
BAKKEN11-202330807776199439242720
BAKKEN10-2023311154958263445144510
BAKKEN9-20233010701117273413441340
BAKKEN8-202331573572154284128410

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Jump In Production Multiple Times -- Grayson Mill -- Rolla State -- January 26, 2025

Locator: 44779HALO.

The well:

  • 24454, 1,382, Grayson Mill/Newfield, Rolla State 152--97-1-12-2H, t4/13; cum 130K 4/15; cum 338K 11/24; jump in production, 1/16; huge jump in production 12/21; jump in production, 9/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20243035763720484413852137248
BAKKEN10-202431396338647903133881325113
BAKKEN9-202430394640329249116261145155
BAKKEN8-202431379835741525710697105730
BAKKEN7-2024631626532047697450
BAKKEN6-20248139302732147814480
BAKKEN5-202431707852182310352102280
BAKKEN4-202430823531397836582450
BAKKEN3-2024319721324383139212680
BAKKEN2-2024291070857848786877520
BAKKEN1-202423501230439308629940
BAKKEN12-2023318071115143874586220
BAKKEN11-20233011531111132699368850
BAKKEN10-20233112361184107363136310
BAKKEN9-202330114810651992625162510
BAKKEN8-2023311145131069510690106900
BAKKEN7-2023311319115531411155108760
BAKKEN6-20233015731447127313334130640
BAKKEN5-202331501809706353560
BAKKEN4-2023301401133581312420
BAKKEN3-20233117741798341368890
BAKKEN2-20232811931419312221219600
BAKKEN1-2023171271937309438942770
BAKKEN12-2022229561142574131811690
BAKKEN11-20223020481970481296126910
BAKKEN10-202231230622421276820779280
BAKKEN9-2022278461055533510148964
BAKKEN8-20223117801614322721869390
BAKKEN7-202231166816363392644164410
BAKKEN6-202230158115982854387338730
BAKKEN5-202228201318054115492649260
BAKKEN4-2022116727352413291229120
BAKKEN3-20226308421210
BAKKEN2-202225388939426661146891466029
BAKKEN1-20223110802106771147326690266900
BAKKEN12-20213115847160391689828095278160
BAKKEN11-202119769477421538313053128852
BAKKEN10-20211445155839231221990
BAKKEN9-20213011411124438611058400
BAKKEN8-20213110021145568806577860
BAKKEN7-20213116201554643770574260
BAKKEN6-2021301192973295690366330
BAKKEN5-202131119512422026403610420
BAKKEN4-20213012501160417660263320
BAKKEN3-20213112391231602769574160
BAKKEN2-202128122613423188306797093
BAKKEN1-2021312518258246513985137110
BAKKEN12-20202817911481462295327070
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20209000119450
BAKKEN9-20201769305504362890
BAKKEN8-202031804596297148212030
BAKKEN7-202031746906318159413150
BAKKEN6-2020301027895460216318970
BAKKEN5-2020200151651650
BAKKEN4-20201951158428310468880
BAKKEN3-202031983937338155112720
BAKKEN2-20202910181194235162413630
BAKKEN1-202031117095538589059318
BAKKEN12-201931111111503889466661
BAKKEN11-2019301059120552012609855
BAKKEN10-201931669568653135110720
BAKKEN9-201930633744537252422540
BAKKEN8-201931703572762299427150
BAKKEN7-20193181010081982700235962
BAKKEN6-201930852680188244421851
BAKKEN5-201931111113683082673229698
BAKKEN4-201930132197927524761950256
BAKKEN3-201931144516321932810251912
BAKKEN2-201928102510821722131186415
BAKKEN1-201931755597193137510960
BAKKEN12-201831742632225218319040
BAKKEN11-2018307281036213182815580
BAKKEN10-201831742663293254722680
BAKKEN9-201830783841277331930490
BAKKEN8-201831975827432354432870
BAKKEN7-201831937871123333430550
BAKKEN6-201830947956170295627050
BAKKEN5-201830868959159287326150
BAKKEN4-201830104210331763028275312
BAKKEN3-2018311160985201333130520
BAKKEN2-20182810051319148258623340
BAKKEN1-20183112841292197319129120
BAKKEN12-20173112949883223590325160
BAKKEN11-20173011741210289308628160
BAKKEN10-20173112801551295308928100
BAKKEN9-2017301084913313297626988
BAKKEN8-20173110481125280317528960
BAKKEN7-20173110891096363361633373
BAKKEN6-201730121710273353646335442
BAKKEN5-20173114321521472383635680
BAKKEN4-2017303182602398296835
BAKKEN3-2017317598604171887159224
BAKKEN2-20172813291495417341531630
BAKKEN1-20173115791502618415938800
BAKKEN12-20163113881370340318229100
BAKKEN11-201630140913224823764351010
BAKKEN10-201631236926095396506618856
BAKKEN9-20163023322140573590356340
BAKKEN8-20163124672525602603757740
BAKKEN7-201631269728457306789650721
BAKKEN6-201630367136079151272212331121
BAKKEN5-20163144294424994128191251822
BAKKEN4-20163039083832798932690542
BAKKEN3-2016274199404494399599579149
BAKKEN2-201629637665191152173191704414
BAKKEN1-201631101531069915772263621794563
BAKKEN12-2015197354673814781356812582816
BAKKEN11-20152333123029748128757
BAKKEN10-20153112001145129728011930592
BAKKEN9-201515000300
BAKKEN8-2015311903203841230322437379
BAKKEN7-20153127792693605505328451947
BAKKEN6-20153020902308475360011322238
BAKKEN5-20153127302728522463112463115
BAKKEN4-2015302949313759849134468175
BAKKEN3-2015312597215469734102523608
BAKKEN2-201528246528524743167287540
BAKKEN1-20152924412139462265226520
BAKKEN12-2014311963211486629872834153
BAKKEN11-2014301929230410124292427022
BAKKEN10-20143136723548153189838672311
BAKKEN9-2014303905354815169344928263
BAKKEN8-2014302044219610844557452335
BAKKEN7-20143137313692204717165140933073
BAKKEN6-20143050395227268620460145495910
BAKKEN5-201429390036471741929278571435
BAKKEN4-201427153921635581412893518
BAKKEN3-20143141493571137679737785189
BAKKEN2-2014283861377715119878986314
BAKKEN1-201431525054432099146981461088
BAKKEN12-2013315144523113621364413444200
BAKKEN11-20133055625379142920849188062043
BAKKEN10-2013316822666716861399313074919
BAKKEN9-2013306441657716971352513208317
BAKKEN8-20133174047395228218563166271936
BAKKEN7-2013311073611361295111560011560
BAKKEN6-201330137831372844401921920
BAKKEN5-201331209242043911084000
BAKKEN4-201329209016353445000
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