Tuesday, December 29, 2020

No New Permits; Six Permits Renewed -- December 29, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1356664839

No new permits.

Six permits renewed:

  • Enerplus (4): an Ole permit in McKenzie County; three "ducks" -- a Widgeon, a Scaup, a Pintail permit, renewed, all in Dunn County;
  • Whiting: a State Federal permit in McKenzie County;
  • Southwestern Production Corp: TMW 34-22, #25480, in Billings County. Link here. Southwestern Production has about 30 permits/file numbers, all of them in Tracy Mountain oil field; most of them are IA, TA, PNC, or otherwise non-producing. The company has only one well currently listed as "active."

Distribution Of The Few Active Rigs In North Dakota

Notes From All Over -- Late Afternoon Edition -- December 29, 2020


December 31, 2020: two days ago we noted that, seemingly out of nowhere, the cases were surging in New York again. See original post. Now this today:

Original Post

Apple: I don't know if folks recall but on Christmas Day, Apple's iCloud crashed -- crash might not be the correct word -- better said, it appeared the iCloud was not able to keep up with the number of new mobile device (iPhones and Apple Watches, for the most part) activation, authentication, syncing, etc. Today we learn that "nine of ten US smartphone activations on Christmas Day 2020 were iPhones."  

Think about that. Nine of ten smartphone activations on Christmas Day were iPhones

Link here. Apple is now followed here

Minnehaha County: link here.  

Chinese flu watch: newly reported Covid-19 cases plummeting in the US. Link here. This is really quite fascinating. I predicted about a week ago that California would surge to the top of states reporting newly diagnosed cases. It took a few days longer than I expected, but here it is, the top five, California jumps to #1, Tennessee, previously #1, drops to #3. 

Meanwhile, Arizona moved into the #2 position, followed by Rhode Island, #4.

But look at this. Number 5 (#5) would have been Oklahoma but New York surged and is now #5. So, we either have the "top 6" or we still have the "top 5" with New York and Oklahoma tied for that fifth position. Not good news for New York when you re-join the "top 5" list. Florida is not far behind. 

Having said that, the "brown" map is getting very, very, very light. The only area that is really dark brown remains San Bernardino, California. 

Chinese flu penetration in the US: link here

  • North Dakota continues to lead the US with 12% penetration.
  • South Dakota remains in 2nd place with 11% penetration.
  • No one else is close. Iowa is 3rd with 8.7% penetration.
  • The US average is 5.9% with California, ranked #34, shows only 5.6% penetration. California has a long way to go. My recommendation: send all the vaccine to California.

Cases across the country are plummeting:

California: with regard to Covid-19, this state is the one of most concern right now (although the recent numbers coming out of NY are also of concern) and is currently the poster child in the US for "Covid out of control." Yesterday, the governor extended the draconian lock down measures "indefinitely." The graphics suggest California may have turned the corner, but it's early and very subtle:


Quick! Pop quiz: when you are watching YouTube how often do you get advertisements for shipping your car cross country? You know, on one of those tractor-trailer automobile transporters. I will bet your answer is: never

So, today, while looking for a particular clip on YouTube I was rudely interrupted by one of those tractor-trailer automobile transporters ads to ship a privately-owned vehicle (POV) cross country. LOL. About one week ago, I went on-line, found a broker, and reserved a tractor-trailer automobile transporter to ship one of our cars cross country. LOL. The technology is amazing; the ability of "everyone" to track "everything" you do on the internet is simply amazing. I have no problem with that. I prefer targeted ads. 

Test: I'm going to see how good these companies are at tracking. I'm looking to buy two breeding ostriches for an exotic zoo-farm here is north Texas. Let's see if I get any targeted ads. And we move on. 


Hess On A Roll In The Bakken -- Reports Another Huge Well -- December 28, 2020

The well:

  • 36681, drl/A, Hess, BL-Iverson C-155-96-2314H-10, 33-061-04445, Beaver Lodge, first production, 6/20; t--; cum 105K 10/20; huge well; FracFocus does not have frack data; recent production; note: absolutely no venting from the get-go -- very remarkable --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Human Development Index -- North Dakota Leads The Nation -- December 29, 2020

First, the definition:

The Human Development Index is a summary measure of average achievement in key dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, being knowledgeable, and have a decent standard of living. The HDI is the geometric mean of normalized indices for each of the three dimensions.

The health dimension is assessed by life expectancy at birth, the education dimension is measured by mean of years of schooling for adults aged 25 years and more and expected years of schooling for children of school entering age.

The standard of living dimension is measured by gross national income per capita. The HDI uses the logarithm of income, to reflect the diminishing importance of income with increasing GNI. The scores for the three HDI dimension indices are then aggregated into a composite index using geometric mean.

The HDI simplifies and captures only part of what human development entails. It does not reflect on inequalities, poverty, human security, empowerment, etc. The HDRO offers the other composite indices as broader proxy on some of the key issues of human development, inequality, gender disparity and poverty.

Now the map: link here.

The top:

  • North Dakota -- one of only two states in the Great Plains
  • Minnesota
  • Washington state
  • Colorado
  • New York
  • New Hampshire
  • Connecticut
  • New Jersey
  • Massachusetts


  • when you see the map of New England, what stands out for me is the absence of Rhode Island and Vermont; maybe the absence of Pennsylvania is noteworthy, home of the first capital of the United States; what happened?
  • California did not make the cut, but it is second tier
  • Texas third tier but it has some of the best highways in the US

Sophia In St Thomas

Taken with a simple, older model iPhone camera. Amazing. 

Everyone flying into St Thomas was required to have a negative nasal swab Covid-19 test within five days of traveling. 

As far as sailing goes, it sounds like this is much less exciting than their sailing trip last summer among the Greek islands.

Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- December 29, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1356664839

Two wells coming off confidential list --

Tuesday, December 29, 2020:

  • 36681, drl/A, Hess, BL-Iverson C-155-96-2314H-10, Beaver Lodge, first production, 6/20; t--; cum 105K 10/20; huge well;
  • 36252, loc/NC, Slawson, Osprey Federal 2-26-29H, Big Bend, no production data,

RBN Energy: above-average winter withdrawals expected fro Canadian natural gas storage

Canadian natural gas storage levels finished the most recent injection season at a record high. With what has been a fairly mild start to the heating season so far in North America, you might be tempted to think that Canadian storage levels would have been slow to draw down. On the contrary: so far, gas is being withdrawn from storage more quickly than might be expected from the winter weather alone, partly because of structural developments that have been emerging in the Canadian market. And these changes will help to draw storage levels down closer to historical averages by the end of the current heating season in March 2021. Today, we consider these structural changes and what the current heating season might have in store for the Canadian gas market.

Though Canada has only about one-fifth as much natural gas storage capacity as the U.S., that storage plays a vital role in balancing the gas markets in both countries. Also, while trends in Canadian gas storage have largely reflected those in U.S. gas storage, the current heating season may well provide more variation than is usual for Canadian gas storage.

Santa Claus Rally -- Day 4 -- December 29, 2020

Firster things firster: seasonal flu disappeared this year.

CDC: MMWR. seasonal flu map -- all green: minimal activity. Headline, 30-second elevator speech and not being reported by the mainstream media: the number of influenza positives reported by public health labs remains much lower than normal despite a higher than normal number of tests performed.

First things first: "CLR upgrade helping energy rebound: at the open"-- SeekingAlpha

Oil and gas E&P stocks are getting a lift as KeyBanc Capital upgraded Continental Resources to Overweight from Sector Weight this morning, noting higher future Bakken activity and refocus to oil in Oklahoma.

Analyst Leo Mariani said the company will see “improved leverage next year, significant FCF generation in 2021, and nice exposure to higher oil prices,” Bloomberg reports. The price target of $20 would be a 23% rise from current prices. 

The Santa Claus Rally, 2002, is tracked here

Three links:


Chart of the year and that's saying a lot. I normally don't like these guys but this morning, worth a look. I might come back to this; looks like a stand-alone post warranted. Link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site, but I'm curious. Can readers suggest to me their favorite blog for daily chatter about the market? I'm looking for a Louis-Rukeyser-like daily synopsis. Good writing, a sense of humor, a fair amount of sarcasm.

Earnings explosion in 2021: the "buzz" on CNBC this morning.

Chinese flu watch: link here.

  • CDC: MMWR. seasonal flu map -- all green: minimal activity. Headline, 30-second elevator speech and not being reported by the mainstream media: the number of influenza positives reported by public health labs remains much lower than normal despite a higher than normal number of tests performed.

Questionable Whether This Well Was Ever Fracked -- December 29, 2020

By this time, if the well had been fracked, FracFocus should have the data. CLR sundry forms are scanned in at the NDIC site but no report that this well has been fracked. This is a great field and if fracked successfully it should have been a much better well. It's a mediocre well suggesting that it was not fracked or not effectively fracked. Adding to the mystery is that it is a Three Forks second bench well. I've put it on my list of things to check up on later but for now I'm considering this an unfracked well. There is a lot of activity in this area.

The well:

  • 33929, SI/NC-->conf-->SI/A, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 13-25H2, Three Forks second bench; API: 33-053-08139, Elm Tree, producing as of 2/20; t--; cum 55K 10/20; FracFocus does not yet have any frack data (33-053-08139); this well is old enough that if it has been fracked, FracFocus should have the data; sundry forms suggest this well has not been fracked; a Bohmbach Federal well to the west was stimulated November, 2019, #33801, which might explain production for this well (#33929); full production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare