Wednesday, June 30, 2021

What Goes Around Comes Around -- June 30, 2021

Amazon: Jeff Bezos is/was a huge anti-Trumper. He succeeded in getting Joe Biden elected. LOL.

Now, Bezos has a bigger problem. Amazon seeks recusal of the FTC head Lina Kahn as the antitrust probe ramps up. Pretty funny.

Paris: on another note, JP Morgan makes Paris its post-Brexit European trading headquarters. Link here.

Dividends 101: ordinary dividends vs qualified dividends. Key data point:

Regular dividends paid on shares of domestic corporations are generally qualified as long as the investor has held the shares for a minimum period. 
The Internal Revenue Service rule says the shares have to be owned for more than 60 days during the 121-day period that begins 60 days before the ex-dividend date. 
For preferred shares, the stock must be owned more than 90 days during the 181 days starting 90 days before the ex-dividend date.

Sort of reminds me of how Easter Sunday is calculated: first Sunday after first full moon after  spring equinox, or something like that. 

Jobless benefits:

The fruits of the decisions by a score of Republican governors to cut short the federal enhancements to unemployment benefits appeared in the ADP private payroll report on Wednesday, June 30, 2021. 
Private-sector employers added 692,000 workers to their payrolls, easily beating the consensus estimate for 550,000. Notably, 332,000 of those new workers were in the leisure and hospitality sector, which employs many workers at pay levels making them most likely to be disincentivized to work by very high unemployment benefits. It's worth pausing for a moment to get specific about just how much the jobless were receiving on enhanced unemployment. 
The precise amounts received by workers varies from state to state and depends on how much a worker earned before being laid off. But on average, jobless benefits pay around $320 per week, the equivalent of around $13.33 per hour. That's not very much to get by on, and it isn't meant to be. It's meant to bring in some income for a short time until a new job can be found. 
The federal enhancement brought the weekly average up to $600 per week, the equivalent of nearly $18 an hour. That's more than a lot of entry-level jobs pay, including many jobs in restaurants and hotels around the country. And in states like Washingon and Massachusetts that are especially generous with unemployment benefits, average enhanced benefits amount to almost $800 per week or more than $23 per hour. The effect was to put millions of workers out of reach of employers. 
Keep in mind that it's not enough for employers to simply beat the prevailing jobless wage. An employer paying $25 an hour in Washington—which is an annual wage of $45,500—is really only paying $2 an hour more than not working. You don't have to be especially lazy to decide that working 35 hours a week for an extra $70 is not as attractive of an offer as not working at all but being paid well. 
If benefits pay enough, there may be no wage that would lure a substantial portion of the population into a job.
Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network

And will avoid marriage: link here

Gasoline Demand -- June 30, 2021

Gasoline demand: link here

Oasis: maintains dividend.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$73.56
6/30/202106/30/202006/30/201906/30/201806/30/2017
Active Rigs2310616758

One new permit, #38407:

  • Operator: Petro-Hunt
  • Field: Elm Tree (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Petro-Hunt has a permit for a USA well in Elm Tree, in NWNE 24-153-95; to be sited 270' FNL and 1945' FEL

Four permits renewed:

  • Rimrock: a Unicorn permit, a Dragon permit, a Mermaid permit, and a Sasquatch permit, all in Dunn County.

Pretty Amazing Draws -- June 30, 2021

Link here



Supply Deficit To Worsen -- Goldman Sachs -- June 30, 2021

A couple of days ago, this was posted:

Supply deficit: I think the most fascinating story to watch play out the next two years -- whether there will be a supply deficit, a supply deficit to push the price of WTI to $100. 

Now today, Goldman Sachs is reporting that oil markets will see a deficit of five million bopd by the end of 2021. That's only six months from now. Currently the market is "short"about 2.8 million bopd; that deficit projected to grow another 2.2 million bopd in the second half of the year. Link to Irina Slav here

Entrepreneurial spirit. The other day I noted an Optimus Prime Transport truck near our home in Grapevine, TX. I posted a photograph of same. One of our sons-in-law works for Daimler Benz in Portland, OR, building the Optimus Prime. He and I were curious...and that led to this ...

  • Optimus Prime Transportation Inc, Batavia, IL; link here. Seven employees; annual revenue, $81,000.
  • Optimus Prime Transportation, Inc.Wheeling, IL; link here. One truck, one driver.
  • Batavia and Wheeling are one hour apart. 


Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- June 30, 2021

Weekly EIA petroleum report. Link here.

  • US crude oil in storage decreased by a whopping 6.7 million bbls;
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 452.3 million bbls; 6% below the five-year average;
  • refiners are operating at 93% of their operable capacity;
  • US crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million bopd; decreased by 0.5 million bopd; average is 6.7 million bopd; 3% more than the same four-week period last year;
  • total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.5 million bbls last week; right in line with average;
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.9 million bbls and are 5% below the five-year average;
  • jet fuel supplied was up 83.5% compared with same four-week period last year;

Active Rigs Up To Twenty-Three; CLR With Seven Rigs -- June 30, 2021

Twenty-three and me? LOL. 

Texas: y'all might remember this story. Now it's being reported that Goldman Sachs will open a "Dallas campus, second largest after New York. Link here: https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/goldman-to-open-dallas-campus-second-largest-after-ny-report. I think the Schwab campus just north of Ft Worth might be the biggest Schwab campus. Not sure. Back in 2019, JPMorgan announced it was moving some "assets" to the Dallas area. For list of companies relocating to Texas, see this post.

Ten-year treasury: after all that hand-wringing, the narrative seems to be changing. Apparently inflation fears are taking a back seat to long-term growth hurdles. It appears the Biden administration will unnecessarily extend the pandemic consequences by at least a year; the labor force may be the biggest hurdle for US economic growth. Maybe instead of a huge jump in GDP in 2Q21 and 3Q21, the economic recovery will remain robust and last two full years. Link here. Today's range: 1.450 - 1.484. Wow. Link here.

China: facing its worse power shortage in a decade. Holy mackerel. Can't get to EVs fast enough. That will solve everything.

United Airlines: company's largest jet order, ever. Previously reported, but I was unaware it was the company's largest aircraft purchase, ever. Truly amazing.

PennEast pipeline: massive victory -- Oilprice

Covid-19: it appears the Biden administration extended the pandemic consequences by a full year. It's very likely under a "Biden administration" we would still be developing vaccines.

COP: cuts capex; cuts operating cost guidance; ups stock buybacks by a billion dollars. Link here And here.

Noise: you can go to the link but it appears to simply be background noise. I assume "this stuff" goes on all the time.

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$73.75
6/30/202106/30/202006/30/201906/30/201806/30/2017
Active Rigs2310616758

Operators with active rigs:

  • CLR (7): Gordon Federal, Mittlestadt, Dvirnak, Pasadena Federal, Harrisburg, LCU Truman, LCU Ralph,
  • MRO (2): Osking USA,
  • Hess (2): BB-State A, BL-Myrtrice,
  • Oasis: Fraser Federal
  • Enerplus: Marten
  • Whiting: Lapica
  • Petro-Hunt: Jorgenson,
  • Slawson: Muskrat Federal,
  • Kraken: Bigfoot LE,
  • Ovintiv: Rolfsrud
  • Rampart Energy: Coteau 1,
  • Rimrock Oil: FBIR Johnson,
  • Armstrong Operating: Fugere,
  • Resonance Exploration:Resonance Ballantyne,
  • KODA Resources: Porter,

No wells coming off confidential list.

RBN Energy: building more natural gas pipeline takeaway capacity out of the Montney. part 4

Western Canada’s Montney-sourced natural gas production has been on a remarkable upward trajectory in the past decade. Most of this growth has been focused in one province: British Columbia. However, that progress has not come without difficulty. 
A key challenge during BC’s gas boom has been providing sufficient pipeline takeaway capacity — the hurdles include the BC Montney’s remoteness, various regulatory impediments, and the unique geologic nature of the play. For this amazing gas supply growth story to continue well into the future, more pipeline capacity needs to be constructed. In our concluding blog on the Montney, we discuss recent pipeline developments and the challenges still ahead.

Tuesday, June 29, 2021

For The Archives -- The California Heat Wave -- June 29, 2021

 Link here.

  • Spot gas prices in Southern California surged 8% today to $7.08/MMBtu as the region turned to gas-fired generation to cope with the ongoing heatwave while power imports dropped.
  • Relevant tickers include SRE, EIX, PCG
  • California ISO's thermal power demand has spiked in the days since the start of the West Coast heat wave, with generation ramping up 58% to 331 GWh on June 28 from 210 GWh on June 26, 2021.
  • Yet even as total power demand rose, power imports into the state fell 36% to 85 GWh on June 28 from 133 GWh on June 26.
  • The National Weather Service forecasts the upper-level high-pressure system responsible for the heat wave could weaken by July 1.

What would the "power imports" be? Wind energy? Coal?

From the EIA:

In 2019, California was the nation's largest net importer of electricity from out of state and received about 28% of its electricity supply from generating facilities outside the state. 
More than seven-tenths of the power delivered to California from states in the Pacific Northwest was from renewable energy sources, including large federal hydroelectric facilities. 
The Southwest, including energy imports from Arizona, Baja California, Colorado, Mexico, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, and Utah, delivered power generated from renewables, natural gas, nuclear energy, coal, or other, unspecified, resources. 
Slightly more than one-fourth of the southwestern power came from renewable sources. 
About 10% of California's total electricity imports are from coal-fired power plants, but coal's total contribution to the state's electricity supply from imports and in-state generation in 2019 was less than 3%. 
Electricity supplied from out-of-state coal-fired power plants decreased following the enactment of a state law in 2006 that requires California utilities to limit new long-term financial investments in baseload generation to power plants that meet California emissions performance standards. Essentially all of California's imports of coal-fired generation are projected to end by 2026.

Some Huge Gas Wells Being Reported In The Marcellus -- June 29, 2021

Updates

June 30, 2021: from a reader regarding the original post --

That 47 MMcfd IP from Chief may certainly be impressive, but - by Marcellus standards - it is not especially noteworthy in comparison to other Northeast Pennsylvania wells. 
Chesapeake must have at least 2 dozen wells that have flowed more than that the first 30 days online. 
Chesapeake's best well - quickly rocketing to #1 all time producing status, the Deremer 2HC - produced over 50 MMcfd its first 3 months online. (50 million cubic feet/day is 8,600 boed.)
Now online 19 months, it has produced almost 19 and 1/2 Billion cubic feet ... 3,360,000 barrels of oil. 
These crazy high numbers are what prompted me to re-focus my attention to the 'gas world' of hydrocarbons with emphasis on the Appalachian Basin. 
(Although Shaleprofile has changed its format, it used to provide running, cumulative production numbers for Pennsylvania wells. Last I checked, about 20% [~2,000] had surpassed the 5.8 bcf mark ... the equivalent of a million barrel oil well).

 Original Post

Link here.


Let's see: 47 million cubic feet / day = 7,800 boepd?

*************************************
Flathead Lake

For The Archives -- OPEC Hopes To Drive Price Of Oil Down -- Opinion -- June 29, 2021

Saudi Arabia did this once before. It was a trillion-dollar mistake. Back in 2014 - 2016.

Link here.

*************************************
Tooling Around Flathead Lake

Notes From All Over -- Late Afternoon Edition -- June 29, 2021

Facebook, re-posting this story. This time from The LA Times daily newsletter:

Facebook Inc. won a court ruling dismissing two monopoly lawsuits filed by the U.S. government and a coalition of states that sought to break up the company, dealing a blow to the effort of antitrust officials to take on the biggest tech platforms. 
The decision by U.S. District Judge James Boasberg in Washington sent Facebook shares soaring; it pushed the company’s market value to more than $1 trillion. 
Boasberg granted the company’s request to dismiss the complaints filed last year by the Federal Trade Commission and state attorneys general led by New York, saying in his opinion that the FTC failed to meet the burden for establishing that Facebook has a monopoly in social networking.

Walmart: to introduce a discount private label insulin brand at steep discounts for diabetes patients. Perhaps more on this later. Link at Yahoo!Finance. All I can say is where has the US government been on this one all these decades. Truly a sad, sad story.

Banks: wow, it seems like just yesterday that banks were in disfavor by all the talking heads. Hopefully, folks took advantage of that. LOL. Windfall of big bank dividends point to more shareholder return. Reported earlier: BAC announced that it will be increasing its quarterly dividend by 17%. 

Now this from Brian Cheung over at Yahoo!Finance:

The large banks are raining dividends on their shareholders after getting a clean bill of health from the Federal Reserve. And bank analysts say the windfall of capital returns is only just beginning.

Last Thursday, the Fed cleared all 23 large banks tested in its annual stress exercise, which examines each firm’s ability to withstand a hypothetical severe recession.

Facing a real recession last year, the Fed imposed restrictions on dividends and share buybacks at the large banks to preserve capital. But the stress test results last week convinced the Fed that it could lift those temporary restrictions.

As a result, several banks on Monday afternoon announced increases in their dividend plans.

Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo both doubled their dividends (to $0.70 a share and $0.20 a share, respectively). The nation’s largest bank, JPMorgan Chase increased its dividend to $1.00 per share from $0.90 per share.

Dividends are pretty amazing. I pay a lot in income taxes on dividends, but it's very possible my cash flow from dividends before I die will be greater than the cash flow of all my other investments and other financial holdings. And that has been through very, very conservative investing which has not affected my lifestyle one bit. 

Same with "401(k)s": allowing folks to retire early. What a great country. My hunch: it is just a matter of time before Congress takes notice. This was another investment vehicle that affected my quality of life not one bit but is certainly making a difference now. f

***********************************
Computer Chips

Because of the blog, I have a pretty good "understanding" of this story. From MarketWatch, another Intel product delay drags on chip stocks, Dow. Intel revealed Tuesday that the next generation of its Xeon Scalable data-center processor, code named “Sapphire Rapids,” would come out later than expected because it was building new features into the chip.

But look at this: it's still a 10-nanometer chip. Apple is moving toward a 3-nm chip.

Last year, Intel had forecast its 10-nanometer Sapphire Rapids would come out some time in 2021, about a month after it announced a delay of its generation of 7-nanometer chips out to at least late 2022. 
In chip parlance, nanometers, or nm, refer to the size of the transistors that go on a computer chip, with the general rule being that smaller transistors are faster and more efficient in using power. 
In January, then-incoming Intel Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger started addressing the 7-nm chip delay, and in March announced aggressive plans to build out Intel’s manufacturing capabilities. 
In a note titled, “Do you want to hear the good news or the bad news
first?” Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon speculated on why Intel was making this announcement because he couldn’t “imagine the company would do this unless it was necessary.” Rasgon has an underperform rating on Intel and a $43 price target.

Also here from Ian King, "Intel falls on latest server chip delay; rival AMD gains."

***************************

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Billionaire Duo Keeps Danaher Grip While Giving $3.3 Billion -- Bloomberg -- June 29, 2021

I posted a story about Danaher a few days ago. Now this:

Link here.

Steven and Mitchell Rales, the billionaire brothers behind industrial conglomerate Danaher Corp., shifted $3.3 billion in shares to their charitable foundations in one of the largest ever transfers of its kind.

The move earlier this month allocates billions for future donations from two of the world’s wealthiest people, who’ve eschewed the limelight while building a high-tech manufacturing empire. In addition to life sciences-focused Danaher, they own stakes in machinery company Colfax Corp. and advanced instrumentation-maker Fortive Corp.

“We’re not leaving the Earth with any money,” Mitchell told the Washington Post in 2018. “When we go, there’s not going to be money bestowed on children and grandchildren in any meaningful way.”

Steven, 70, and Mitchell, 64, are worth $10 billion and $7.9 billion, respectively, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, making them the 250th and 358th richest people in the world.

Their fortunes have been propelled by shares of Washington, D.C.-based Danaher, the firm they founded almost four decades ago. Its stock is up 22% this year to a record high, boosted by hunger for lab products and this month’s $9.6 billion cash purchase of Aldevron, a maker of the building blocks of mRNA vaccines.

Much more at the link.  

Archived

There are probably some interesting dots to connect. Note: "Wei" and "kaizan."

Kraken With Three More Permits -- June 29, 2021

Weekly US crude oil data, API:

The American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday reported a draw in crude oil inventories of 8.153-million barrels for the week ending June 25, 2021.

Analysts had predicted a draw of 4.686 million barrels for the week.

In the previous week, the API reported a draw in oil inventories of 7.199 million barrels after analysts had predicted a draw of 3.942 million barrels. Crude oil inventories have fallen by more than 37 million barrels since the start of 2021, according to API data, but are still up 19 million barrels since January 2020.
Comment: we'll see the EIA data tomorrow.

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$73.45
6/29/202106/29/202006/29/201906/29/201806/29/2017
Active Rigs2210616759

Three new permits, #38404 - 38406, inclusive:

  • Operator: Kraken
  • Field: Burg (Williams County) (in the far northwest corner of the state of North Dakota)
  • Comments:
    • Kraken has permits for three Sidney wells to be sited in lot 4 section 5-158-99 Burg oil field;
    • the wells will be sited 349 FNL and between 981 FWL and 1047 FWL; the well heads will be thirty-three feet apart;
    • there are some fairly decent wells in this area

Permit renewal:

  • Rimrock: one Two Shields Butte permit in Dunn County.

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36237, drl/A, Slawson, Neptang 3-15-22H, Big Bend, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 21K 4/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20212921333203552083413943013800
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-202128000000
  • 37555, loc/A, CLR, Norway 11-5H, Fancy Buttes, minimal production announced;
  • 36470, drl/A, Slawson, Periscope Federal 8-10-11-12H, Big Bend, no production data, 
  • 36473, drl/A, Slawson, Periscope Federal 9-10-7TFH, Big Bend, no production data,

US Supreme Court Rules In Favor Of PennEast Pipeline -- June 29, 2021

Pipelines: US Supreme Court sides with PennEast regarding eminent domain and pipelines. Link here

Ruling leaves in place longstanding pipeline routing practices. Pipelines had feared state veto power on condemnation. Google the blog for occasional notes regarding PennEast. Also, link here. Note how close this vote was: one judge could have overturned this.

The court ruled 5 - 4 that a pipeline company can use federal eminent domain authority to build a line across state-owned land and private lands where easements have been granted by states. This suggests that states can't have it both ways: an easement for a state-approved pipeline but not a permit for a federally permitted pipeline using the same easement.

 ******************************
No Deal
Saudi - Sempra - Port Arthur

See "Saudi Arabia in transition" from yesterday, June 28, 2021.

Today, over at SeekingAlpha, "Sempra, Saudi Aramco unable to seal deal tied to Port Arthur LNG." Also here.

That explains why this:

********************************
The Yolk's On Goober

Link here

The Grid -- June 29, 2021

EVs? Has anyone really thought this through?

Later afternoon, ISO-NE. At the site, New England is burning oil to produce electricity. Five percent of region's electricity comes from renewable energy (all types) and three percent of region's electricity comes from oil.

Earlier this afternoon, ISO-NE

Portland, OR, June 28, 2021, NBC News: Portland, OR hit third-highest temperature ever recorded in a major US city. 

Portland, OR

EVs do not have the range of ICEVs. Period. Dot.

  • EVs take well over an hour to get a full charge.
  • driving cross country from Portland, OR, to Flathead Lake, MT, we stopped at major tourist destination, St Regis, MT. Two gas stations.
  • Cars lined up to get gasoline.
  • I pulled in; filled tank in less than three minutes; drove away in less than five minutes.
  • Now, imagine that same line of cars, lined up to charge for at least an hour.
  • Yes, I know --- as many charging stations as you want to put in -- imagine the footprint of that parking lot to charge all those cars
  • then, realize that parking lot would sit empty nine months of the year
  • at St Regis: five EVs would have "gummed up" the system; now imagine a thousand EVs in that 24-hour period
  • investment opportunity? Copper.

Today's Feature Story -- June 29, 2021

The link sent to me by a reader. I would have missed it. Great story. Pretty amazing. 

Link here.

By-line: Sidney, MT.

Archived.

A Bitcoin mine operating out of an old mill building near Missoula, for example, attracted criticism after county officials said it was using as much power as a third of the households in the county. Additionally, researchers at the University of Cambridge estimate that Bitcoin currently consumes nearly 94 terawatt-hours of power a year globally, more than the combined consumption of the 108 million people who live in the Philippines.

The server containers on the Kraken well site are owned by Denver-based Crusoe Energy Systems, a venture-capital backed startup founded in 2018 that markets itself as a partner for oil companies looking for an economical way to cut back on their flaring. In eastern Montana, Crusoe buys otherwise stranded gas from Kraken, pipes it into the onsite-generators, and uses the resulting power to crack Bitcoin free from the ether.

Cully Cavness, Crusoe’s co-founder and president, said in an interview that the company also makes its server farms available to people who need other computationally intensive work performed, such as training artificial intelligence models or rendering computer animations. He said the company has donated computing power to Folding at Home, an organization that helps research on COVID-19 and other biochemistry topics by simulating the atomic interactions at play in protein molecules.

Bitcoin mining, however, is Crusoe’s main effort at the moment. The company, Cavness said, has a dedicated network engineering team that works out how to connect each well-pad server farm to the rest of the world, using satellite internet, microwave transmissions or, in some cases, custom-built fiber optic lines that can also bring broadband service to nearby rural customers.

The company isn’t the only ongoing effort to leverage well pad natural gas for Bitcoin mining in the U.S., but Caveness said Crusoe is the largest startup in the space. He said the company currently has about 40 data centers in operation, mostly on the Bakken in Montana and North Dakota, but is also operating in Colorado and Wyoming and plans to expand into other oil-producing areas.

“We’re growing it pretty quickly today. We’re looking to be at about 100 within months,” he said.

Caveness said he considers the company’s model an effective answer to the environmental concerns around cryptocurrency’s energy consumption, both because flares don’t necessarily burn all the methane present in well pad gas and because generating mining power off the gas offsets power usage that would otherwise have to come from somewhere else.

Notes From All Over -- Mid-Morning Edition -- June 29, 2021

The last Tuesday of 2Q21. Only 179 shopping days until Christmas.

Market: I would assume money managers were getting ready to close their books on 2Q21 last week. The market is relatively flat today, but the three major indices are all green, and apparently the S&P 500 hit another record high.

US consumer confidence:

  • rises to more than one-year high in June; link here.
  • highest level since the Covid-19 pandemic started more than a year ago;
  • a reading of 127.3 in June, 2021, the highest level since February 2020, from 120.0 in May

Jobless:

  • there appears to be a direct relationship between benefits and joblessness; who knew? Link here.

Coal: is dead! Long live coal.

  • Glencore's billionaire bos Ivan Glasenberg made one final deal in his last week at the company
  • bought out two rivals in a giant Colombian coal mine
  • coal is now priced at highest level in thirteen years;
  • link here;
  • coal at these high levels? Glasenberg says the same thing will happen with oil and natural gas; link here;

Pipeline completions:

  • EIA graphic; link here.
  • sixth best year since 2010;

Gasoline, US supply in days: one has to go back a year to see the supply drop to less than 29 days. Link here

July 4th gasoline:

  • expensive; average will be about $3.10 / gallon and probably increase throughout the summer;
  • question: will there be enough?
  • link here;
  • the issue is not "supply" from the refiners; refiners producing record amounts of gasoline; the problem? not enough drivers to transport the gasoline to service stations; link here

Covid-19:

  • what's the ethical argument against vaccinating teenagers? Link here.
  • Covid cases now rising by 23,000 in a day -- the biggest rise in five months;
  • the vaccines appear to work against the Delta variant

Airlines:

  • United Airlines with huge aircraft buy; will hire / re-hire 25,000 union workers over next few years. Link here: https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/united-airlines-hire-25000-boeing-largest-order-ever.

EVs:

  • after kickstart from GM, Honda says it will now build its own EVs. Link here: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/general-motors-honda-electric-vehicles.

Apple:

  • Apple has dramatically increased the amount of iCloud user data it stores on Google Cloud; link here;
  • Apple now has over eight million terabytes of data stored on Google's servers; no denominator provided;

Jodge Boasberg:

  • dismisses antitrust lawsuits against Facebook; link to The WSJ;
  • the dismissals, which came in a pair of rulings, came before any pretrial proceedings had progressed;
  • the judge dismissed the case brought by 46 states in its entirety on the grounds that the attorneys general waited too long to bring their claims;
  • shares surge
  • US now has five companies with market cap greater than $1 trillion;
  • The rulings dealt a direct, early blow to bipartisan government efforts to pursue Big Tech giants on allegations they have unlawfully monopolized the marketplace. They also served as a reminder that antitrust cases—particularly against dynamic tech-sector firms that offer free, nontraditional products—can be difficult to win before federal courts that have narrowed the reach of antitrust laws over several decades.
  • “This really stings for the agencies,” said George Washington University law professor William Kovacic, a former FTC chairman. “The FTC and the states I’m sure used the best talent they had to bring these cases, and they have been knocked out at the earliest stage.” 

SRE:

  • Sempra raises full-year guidance; link here;
  • shares plunge;
  • price target raised to $154 from $137

BAC:

  • boosts quarterly dividend by 17%;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Global warming:

  • hottest temperatures recorded in Canada; link here;
  • sixteen locations provided:
  • only two occurred this millennium, both in 2014
  • nine occurred before the end of WWII
  • one occurred in 1886

No Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- June 29, 2021

Active rigs:

$73.23
6/29/202106/29/202006/29/201906/29/201806/29/2017
Active Rigs2210616759

No wells coming off confidential list.

RBN Energy: supercritical CO2 for long-haul piping and enhanced oil recovery, part 4

The vast potential for permanently storing carbon dioxide underground by using it for enhanced oil recovery can only be realized if produced or captured CO2 can be economically transported long distances via pipeline. And the only way that can happen is if the CO2 is compressed into a “supercritical” or “dense-phase” fluid — a state that is somewhat compressible like a gas but flows and can be pumped like a liquid. When CO2 is in a supercritical state, much more of it can economically flow through a pipeline to the producing field. And when it gets there, the dense-phase CO2 can be injected into an oil production zone, where it has the unique ability to flow through permeable rock formations, bond with and “swell” trapped oil molecules, and free the oil to move to the production well, then up to the surface. Given that CO2-based EOR is destined to become a much more significant activity in the energy industry, it’s time for a fun-filled review of the thermodynamics of fluids as it relates to the transportation of CO2 and its use in the production of crude oil. (Wait! Don’t leave! This will be easy to follow! We promise!) Today, we continue our series on the rapidly evolving CO2 market and why it matters to crude oil producers.

CO2 sequestration is the permanent storage of CO2 deep below ground in rock formations, oil and gas reservoirs, coal seams, etc. If the CO2 is captured and stored, and that’s all, the process is called CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage). On the other hand, if the CO2 is used for some other process before it’s stored, it is called CCUS (Carbon Capture, Use, and Storage). EOR is a form of CCUS, and a very economic one at that. In EOR, CO2 is pumped into the production zone of an otherwise depleted oil field, then mixes with and frees the oil that has been left behind. Some of the CO2 used in this process stays underground, permanently trapped in the reservoir. The rest of the CO2 comes out of the ground mixed with the oil, then is separated and recycled back into the field — a process that goes on until all the original CO2 used is trapped beneath the surface.

Monday, June 28, 2021

"We've Never Seen Anything Like It" -- June 28, 2021

Link here.

Californians are fueling Austin's housing frenzy: "we've never seen anything like this." 

Trending over at twitter today.

The metro area of Austin grows by about 180 people every day, a boom that's made it the country's fastest-growing major region for the past decade

Experts say Austin's boom, particularly during the pandemic, has been accelerated by Californians and Bay Area giants like Apple, Facebook, Google, and Tesla that are all hiring in Austin.

Those able to afford to move, i.e., those paying California state taxes are moving. Those who cannot afford to move are not moving to Texas.

Stanley Cup Finals -- Game 1 -- Lightning Over The Canadiens -- 5 - 1 -- June 28, 2021

I'm still traveling -- up in the Pacific Northwest -- from Portland, Oregon, to Flathead Lake, Montana. It's beautiful everywhere, but Flathead Lake is truly incredible. Below: one of 3,245 photos taken in the last four days on Flathead Lake with cousins, aunts, and great-aunts. The one-year twins are in the stroller at the end of the dock. Except for an occasional run to the local grocery store, I have been nowhere except on the lake.

I can't believe how beautiful this country is. And I've seen this country often, but not enough. It never ceases to amaze me.

Twilight zone: in Oregon, I can go to jail if I don't wear a mask; in Montana, mask? What mask?

Uber: I used Uber for the first time ever. An incredible experience. No one taught me how to use. Figured it out -- literally on the fly -- at PDX. Sophia in tow. Mark Perry has written about Uber, comparing it to legacy taxi systems. Best example ever of free market capitalism and entrepreneurial spirit in the US. It speaks volume the Europeans and/or Japan didn't come up with "Uber" first.

Hulu: awesome. Someone sent me a note telling me that the first game of the Stanley Finals had just started. Despite traveling, I was able to log into Hulu in less than twenty seconds, and the first thing that popped up -- out of 1,000's of possibilities, the hockey game was the first to show up. Hulu knew my profile and knew what I wanted.

 Feeding the birds out at Flathead Lake:


The "UPS Truck" that is mentioned in the background in the video above makes its regular run through this lakefront development every evening around 7:30 p.m. local time. In our small area of ten homes (out of perhaps 100 homes in the entire development) the UPS delivery truck generally drops off one to five packages each night.

Saudi Arabia In Transition -- June 28, 2021

Quick: which is bigger? Saudi Arabia's Ghawar or the Permian? Answer at this article

According to the Texas Railroad Commission (RCC), which gets its figures from the Federal Reserve Bank in Dallas, the greater Permian Basin now accounts for nearly 40 percent of all oil production in the United States and 15 percent of its natural gas. Last year, Forbes, based on numbers coming from Aramco, reported that the Permian had overtaken Ghawar in Saudi Arabia as the world’s top producing oil field in late 2018.

Peak oil for Saudi: April 7, 2013. Link here.  

Numbers don't add up. How much oil can Saudi Arabia really produce? June 27, 2021. Most interesting, we seldom see "how much oil can Saudi Arabia really export?" Much of their production is used domestically, especially in the summer to produce electricity for air conditioning. 

Saudi to issue dollar-dominated bonds to meet obligations, mostly that $75 billion annual dividend:

Motiva: Saudi Arabia looking to make "Motiva" a household word in North America. Link here

  • agreement solidifies Motiva as the face of Aramco base oils sales in the Americas, advancing a brand strategy that all Aramco-produced base oils are marketed exclusively by affiliates
  • S-Oil products from South Korea to be marketed under the "aramcoULTRA" brand name
  • both Motive and S-Oil are Saudi Aramco subsidiaries
  • Phillips 66 had been the exclusive distributor of Ultra-S in North America

Saudi's foreign reserve assets. Link here.


No New Permits; Three DUCs Reported As Completed; WTI Down; Active Rigs At Twenty-Two -- June 28, 2021

Active rigs:

$72.82
6/28/202106/28/202006/28/201906/28/201806/28/2017
Active Rigs229616658

No new permits.

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36469, drl/A, Slawson, Periscope Federal 5-10-7TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 36468, drl/A, Slawson, Periscope Federal 3-10-11-12H, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 36472, drl/A, Slawson, Periscope Federal 4-10-7TFH, Big Bend, no production data,

The Rimrock FBIR Johnson Wells

Perhaps a reader knows. I do not know which way these horizontals will go, but I'm betting they will go east to west, ending in section 11-149-92. 

The wells:

  • 38279, ros/conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7H, Heart Butte, 
  • 38280, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7C, Heart Butte,
  • 38281, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7G, Heart Butte,
  • 38282, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7B, Heart Butte,
  • 38283, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7F, Heart Butte,


  • 38284, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7AXD, Heart Butte, 
  • 38285, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7A, Heart Butte,
  • 38286, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Johnson 13X-7E, Heart Butte,

The graphics:


Notes From All Over -- The Flathead Lake Edition -- June 28, 2021

Supply deficit: I think the most fascinating story to watch play out the next two years -- whether there will be a supply deficit, a supply deficit to push the price of WTI to $100.

  • already a natural gas shortage? Natural gas shortage pushes coal prices to 10-year high. Link to Irina Slav.

Saudi: along that same line, the second most fascinating story to follow the next two years -- whether Saudi Arabia (Saudi Aramco) controls the supply / demand narrative. The consensus is Saudi Arabia does control the narrative; some of us think not.

Supply deficit:

Covid-19:

  • another conspiracy theory called into question by a seemingly credible "western" observer with first-hand experience. Link here
  • during the pandemic, most Americans got richer -- especially the rich. Link here: https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/during-covid-19-most-americans-got-richer-especially-the-rich-u-s-households-gained-13-5-trillion.
  • vaccination rollout hits a wall; first noted by the blog some weeks ago; now a "mainstream media" story; Biden administration targeting the "movable middle." Good luck. Link here. It doesn't help that mainstream media posts every crackpot interview.

US shale: not primed for growth. A lot of headwinds.

Oil and gas executives remained upbeat this quarter as energy prices rebounded, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, although concerns are growing over rising costs. 
The Dallas Fed's energy survey of 152 companies in Texas, southern New Mexico and northern Louisiana on 9-17 June showed that activity has continued to grow strongly in the past three months. 
Drillers also plan to step up spending. But respondents voiced scepticism about the energy transition and the possibility of a carbon tax, as well as concerns about a less favourable regulatory environment under President Joe Biden. 
Three-quarters of those polled see a global crude supply gap in the next two to four years.

DUCs: update from the EIA. A hefty decline? Link here. It's really all about the Permian. See also Tsvetana Paraskova.

Pivot to green energy:

Technology:

Investing:

  • calm before the storm? Watch out below. Link to The WSJ.
  • the S&P 500 has not had a 5% correction since October, 2020; turmoil in the depths. today? S&P 600 down 0.1% but the NASDAQ up 0.6% and AAPL doing very well, thank you very much.
  • the last Monday of the second quarter: NASDAQ "surges" to new record; S&P hits new record; Dow falls 0.44%.

Uber: likely winner this year in the "car business." Not enough "rentals" available. Folks will fly to destination; take Uber to their "vacation-spot." Trust me on this one.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

USAF: When you positively, absolutely have to deliver overnight: F-15s and F-16s. Whoo-hoo. Links everywhere. US hits Iranian-backed-terrorist-launched drones. This guy is clueless. Link to source here.

Bad hair day: for Toyota. To story here.

Trending: this is pretty awesome. While out at Flathead Lake, the subject of The Big Lebowki came up. For those who had seen it, all agree: (one of) the best ever. So, then, less than twenty-four hours later, trending on social media: name the five movies you have seen at least ten times. I guess it's John Goodman's birthday.

TV personality, not! It's not often a politician does not want to be on television. South Dakota attorney general will not allow audio or video recordings of his trial. Link here

Clifton, Texas: Norwegian Capital of Texas. The nearby community of Norse is the final resting place of Cleng Peerson, commonly recognized as the "father of Norwegian immigration to america." The founder of Norse was Ole Canuteson (Ole Knudsen) from the Stavanger region of Norway. 

Montana: "My favorite state has not yet been invented. It will be called Montana, and it will be perfect." Abraham Lincoln, 1864.

PGA: what in the world happened to Bubba Watson yesterday? Asking for a friend.NBC Golf says he collapsed on the back nine. Covid? Link here

Labor market: normalizing in red states; remains broken in blue states

Business space: office vacancies in downtown Toronto hit their highest since 2008 with companies questioning their long-term needs for space. Link here.

Fifteen Operators With Active Rigs In The Bakken -- A New "Modern" Record -- JUne 28, 2021

Active rigs:

$73.02
6/28/202106/28/202006/28/201906/28/201806/28/2017
Active Rigs229616658

Operators with active rigs:

  • CLR (6): Gordon Federal, Bang, Jensen, Pasadena, Harrisburg, LCU Truman,
  • MRO (2): Osking, Sebastian,
  • Hess (2): EN-Johnson A, GO-Soine A
  • Slawson: Muskrat Federal (Slawson's Muskrat Federal wells are tracked here)
  • Rimrock: FBIR Johnson
  • Enerplus: Beaver
  • Kraken: Bigfoot
  • Ovintiv: Rolfsrud,
  • Rampart Energy: Coteau 1
  • Whiting: Lapica
  • Petro-Hunt: Jorgenson
  • KODA Resources: Porter
  • Oasis: Fraser Federal
  • Armstrong Operating: Fugere
  • Resonance Exploration: Resonance Ballantyne 16-19H Inj

Slawson Muskrat Federal wells:

The two parent wells in this section:

  • 19255, 718, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 1-28-33H, 33-061-01424,Van Hook, t1/11; cum 577K 10/20; stimulated 12/31/10 - 01/07/11; 40 stages; 3.7 million lbs proppant; see full production profile here; cum 614K 4/21; nice jump in production; still "flowing, no pump";
  • 20267, 737, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 2-28-33H, 33-061-01653, Van Hook, t9/11; cum 473K 10/20; stimulated 8/30/11; 40 stages; 3.98 million lbs proppant; cum 484K 4/21;

Rampart Energy Company:

  • has been operating in North Dakota since 1959
  • Rampart Energy has about 50 records on file
  • Coteau 1: wildcat, SWSW 1-145-88; a "long way" from the Bakken;
  • south of the lake; well east of the Bakken; southeast (outside) the Ft Berthold Reservation;
  • if this is a crude oil well (not a natural gas well), this will be interesting to follow
  • from "Bakken operators:

Rampart Energy Company 

  • June 16, 2021
    • Rampart's wildcat, Coteau 1, will be sited in SWSW 1-145-99, Mercer County, 555 FSL and 460 FWL; the oil field is also a wildcat; 
    • Rampart has about 50 permits in North Dakota; it has been active in North Dakota since 1959; 
    • Rampart's previous well in North Dakota, #27081, Craig Allen 10-3H, Stanley oil field; SESW 11-155-91; a Bakken well that was drilled in 2015 and has reported a respectable 228K bbls crude oil cumulative;

Number Of Active Rigs In The Bakken Jumps Ten Percent -- June 28, 2021

Talk about a huge coincident. Earlier (two days ago, yesterday, I forget) I posted a note about "blue hydrogen" and North Dakota

Now, this morning, this popped up on twitter: Saudi Aramco bets on blue hydrogen exports ramping up from 2030. Link here

Saudi Aramco outlined plans to invest in blue hydrogen as the world shifts away from dirtier forms of energy, but said it will take at least until the end of this decade before a global market for the fuel is developed.

“We’re going to have a large share” of the market for blue hydrogen, Aramco’s chief technology officer, Ahmad Al-Khowaiter, said in an interview on Sunday in Dhahran, eastern Saudi Arabia, where the company’s based. “The scale up isn’t going to happen before 2030. We’re not going to see large volumes of blue ammonia before then.”

Hydrogen is seen as crucial to slowing climate change since it emits no harmful greenhouse gases when burned. The blue form of the fuel is made from natural gas, with the carbon emissions generated in the conversion process being captured. The hydrogen is sometimes converted again into ammonia to allow it to be transported more easily between continents.

The state energy firm may end up spending roughly $1 billion on capturing carbon for every 1 million tons of blue ammonia produced, Khowaiter said. That would exclude the expense of producing the gas, he said.

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$73.02
6/28/202106/28/202006/28/201906/28/201806/28/2017
Active Rigs229616658

No wells coming off the confidential list

RBN energy: why everyone is talking about renewable diesel, part 5

Renewable diesel is a popular topic in the transportation fuel space, and for good reason. For one, RD provides a lower-carbon, renewable-based alternative to petroleum-based diesel; for another, it’s a chemical twin of and therefore a “drop-in” replacement for ultra-low sulfur diesel. But, most of all, there are the large financial incentives provided by California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, the U.S. Biodiesel Tax Credit, and other programs, which can make RD production highly profitable. Driven by these factors, there’s a lot of renewable diesel production capacity under construction or on the drawing board: everything from greenfield projects to expansions of existing RD refineries to conversions of old-school refineries so they can make RD. Today, we put the spotlight on RD and discuss how it differs from biodiesel, how it’s produced, and the new RD capacity coming online in North America.

Our blog series on low carbon fuel policies in the U.S. and Canada has garnered a lot of attention. There’s no doubt about it, energy folks want to learn all they can about alternative fuels, including the impact that low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) programs could have on refined products markets. To quickly recap what we’ve said so far, in Part 1 we provided an overview of various policies that have been adopted to reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector, such as fuel economy standards, renewable blending requirements, zero emission vehicle mandates, and LCFS programs in locations such as California, Oregon, British Columbia, and Canada generally via its Clean Fuel Standard.

In Part 2, we focused on California’s LCFS, which was implemented in January 2011 and which grew out of a number of earlier efforts there to improve air quality and, more recently, reduce GHG emissions. The LCFS assigns a carbon intensity (CI) target value for petroleum-based gasoline and diesel fuels, as well as their substitutes, such as ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel. (CI is an assessment of the GHG emissions associated with producing, distributing, and consuming a fuel, and is measured in grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule, or gCO2e/MJ.) The LCFS then sets maximum CI limits on finished gasoline and diesel fuel consumed in California each year on a gradually declining scale to meet the 2030 goal of a 20% reduction in the carbon intensity of motor fuels consumed in the state.

​In Part 3, we turned our attention to ethanol, the use of which in gasoline has been prevalent for many years. Ethanol is a biofuel that is found in nearly 98% of the gasoline purchased at retail stations in the U.S., in most cases accounting for 10% of the gasoline at the pump. This high-octane biofuel has grown in popularity around the world, particularly over the last 20 years, due to regulations that require or incentivize its use. As governments continue to evaluate regulations to control GHG emissions, ethanol has been overshadowed by some other biofuels lately, but it is expected to continue to play an important role as a pathway for meeting low-carbon mandates. Last time, in Part 4, we looked at biodiesel. We noted that while the incentives for producing biodiesel are substantial, there are two big catches with the fuel: a limited supply of feedstocks and properties limiting how much can be blended with petroleum-based diesel.

And that’s a perfect segue to renewable diesel, which has no such “blend wall” — and which has been receiving a lot of press the past couple of years, including in the RBN blogosphere. In Playin’ by the Rules in December 2019, we covered some of the basics behind RD and noted that at the time about 2.9 billion gallons per year (gal/yr) of RD production capacity was either in operation or under development in the U.S. and Canada. Today, the amount of operating and planned RD capacity is 7.2 billion gal/yr, or 2.5 times where we stood a year and a half ago. Last July, in Green Grow the (Refineries), we zeroed in on HollyFrontier’s plan to shut down its petroleum-based Cheyenne, WY, refinery and convert it into an RD facility. Here we are in the summer of 2021 and the excitement around RD has not waned — if anything, the momentum toward low carbon transportation fuels in general, and RD in particular, has accelerated.

Renewable diesel, like biodiesel, is a biomass-based fuel that can be burned in diesel engines or used as home heating oil. However, there are unique aspects of RD that have given it an edge over biodiesel as a substitute for petroleum-based ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD. Renewable diesel meets or exceeds the fuel specifications of ULSD, thus is considered a “drop-in” replacement, whereas biodiesel (from FAME, or fatty acid methyl ester) is typically limited to blends of 5% (a diesel/biodiesel blend known as B5) to 20% (a.k.a. B20). In fact, unlike biodiesel, which has poor cold-flow properties and risk of contaminants, RD generally has a higher cetane value (an octane-like measurement of diesel and diesel alternatives) than ULSD, promotes more complete combustion and higher engine efficiency, and has comparable or better cold-flow properties than petroleum-based diesel. 

Much more at the link.

Sunday, June 27, 2021

Why Did Iraq Pull Out Of Its $2 Billion Oil Deal With China? Oilprice -- June 27, 2021

Link here

It begins:

Just when it looked like Iraq was becoming a regional leader it decided to halt a $2 billion pre-paid oil supply deal with China's state-owned Zhenhua Oil Co. despite aims to strengthen ties with China. 

Iraq decided to end a deal with Zhenhua and sell its crude supply to other customers as oil prices continue to rise. The deal with the Chinese company, that was agreed upon earlier this year, would have seen 4 billion bpd of oil supplied each month. The oil was expected to be ‘destination free’, meaning Zhenhua could sell it to other companies.

However, government officials in Iraq are making the country’s budget priority clear as the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) deputy director-general Ali al-Shatari stated, "For the time being we may say it is not applicable at this stage because of oil prices, which are high and we are in a better position and we are even generating additional profits in excess of what the Iraqi budget needs."

The end of the Zhenhua deal follows recent announcements of big oil backing away from Iraq. Earlier this month, oil super-major, BP (0.00%), said it wanted to change its operations in Iraq’s supergiant Rumaila oil field, to create a stand-alone company. 

U.S. super-major ExxonMobil (0.22%) announced its intention to withdraw from Iraq’s West Qurna 1 oil field. And Royal Dutch Shell (0.19%) got out long ago, ceasing operations in Iraq’s supergiant Majnoon oil field in 2017 and West Qurna 1 in 2018.

There are several reasons for the Western supermajors’ exit from Iraq, including the movement away from traditional oil and gas towards low-carbon projects, persistent corruption in Iraq’s oil industry, and China’s dominance of Iraqi oil. 

Much more at the link.

Archived.

How Much Oil Can Saudi Arabia Really Produce? Oilprice -- June 27, 2021

Link to Simon Watkins

I talked about this for years -- when the shale revolution first began. I exhausted my interest (and probably my readers' interest) in this subject once I figured it out, and moved on. I occasionally write about it but, in general, have lost interest. 

At the link, Simon Watkins opening paragraph is written in the style of Henry James. 

Archived.

The Dawn Of A New Era For US Shale -- Oilprice -- June 27, 2021

Link to Tsvetana Paraskova

Higher oil prices and capital expenditure discipline are setting the stage for the highest free cash flow on record for the world’s exploration and production companies this year. And U.S. shale firms—set to generate $60 billion free cash flow—are primed for playing a key role in the record-breaking free cash flow from global upstream operations.   The U.S. shale patch is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of capex discipline and high oil prices, as well as the largest contributor to the highest-ever free cash flows from the upstream business globally, according to independent research firm Rystad Energy.

The world’s public oil firms are set to see their combined free cash flow—all cash flows from upstream activity excluding such from financing or hedging effects—surge to a record-breaking $348 billion in 2021. According to estimates from Rystad Energy, this would be $37 billion higher than the previous all-time high of $311 billion, which was generated in 2008. Back then, just before the financial crisis, oil prices averaged $100 a barrel that year.  

The key driver of record cash flows would be the U.S. shale patch, which is estimated to rake in nearly $60 billion in free cash flow before hedging effects, Rystad Energy forecasts. 

This would be quite a U-turn in the financial fortunes of U.S. shale drillers, which have struggled to generate positive free cash flow for a decade since the shale revolution began.  

And unlike tech companies like Apple, most of these oil companies are going to return this free cash flow directly to investors.

More:

The world’s public oil firms are set to see their combined free cash flow—all cash flows from upstream activity excluding such from financing or hedging effects—surge to a record-breaking $348 billion in 2021. According to estimates from Rystad Energy, this would be $37 billion higher than the previous all-time high of $311 billion, which was generated in 2008. Back then, just before the financial crisis, oil prices averaged $100 a barrel that year.  

The key driver of record cash flows would be the U.S. shale patch, which is estimated to rake in nearly $60 billion in free cash flow before hedging effects, Rystad Energy forecasts. 

This would be quite a U-turn in the financial fortunes of U.S. shale drillers, which have struggled to generate positive free cash flow for a decade since the shale revolution began. 

Other data points:

  • Bloomberg: free cash flow of $30 billion
  • Deloitte: $30 billion represents just one-tenth of the $300 billion in net negative cash flow the US shale industry lost in the fifteen years since the first shale boom (a meaningless statistic)
    • $300 / 15 = $20 billion per year on average

Much more at the link.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- June 27, 2021

One well:
  • 37481, conf, BR, F Jorgenson 1C TFH, Elidah, no production data,

New Wells Reporting 3Q21

Monday, October 25, 2021: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 244 for the year:
36928, conf,  Rimrock, FBIR Guybalckhawk 24X-27D,
36917, conf,  Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-35HU,
36065, conf,  Enerplus, Obsidian 147-93-16B-21H-TF,

Sunday, October 24, 2021: 18 for the month, 18 for the quarter, 241 for the year:
37977, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-6,
36769, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10,

Saturday, October 23, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 239 for the year:
None.

Friday, October 22, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 239 for the year:
38193, conf, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-7HLW,

Thursday, October 21, 2021: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 239 for the year:
37228, conf, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6H,

Wednesday, October 20, 2021: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 238 for the year:
None.

Tuesday, October 19, 2021: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 238 for the year:
37987, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-4A-9-1H,
36768, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10,

Monday, October 18, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
None.

Sunday, October 17, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
None.

Saturday, October 16, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
None.

Friday, October 15, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
None.

Thursday, October 14, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
37917, conf, Slawson, Whirlcat Federal 4-31-19TFH,

Wednesday, October 13, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 235 for the year:
None.

Tuesday, October 12, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 235 for the year:
36916, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-35TFHU,

Monday, October 11, 2021: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 234 for the year:

  • None.

Sunday, October 10, 2021: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 234 for the year:

  • None.
Saturday, October 9, 2021: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 234 for the year:
  • None.

Friday, October 8, 2021: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 234 for the year:

  • None.

Thursday, October 7, 2021: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 234 for the year:

  • 37197, conf, Slawson, Mauser Federal 5-18-17H, North Fork, no data, scout ticked not updated;
  • 30201, conf, Whiting, Klose 21-27-3H, Glass Bluff, nice production, scout ticket not updated; this one is really on the Bakken fringe; south of the river, to the far west; not much out there; not even sage grouse.

Wednesday, October 6, 2021: 8 for the month, 8 for the quarter, 232 for the year:

  • 37196, conf, Slawson, Mauser Federal 8-18-17TFH, North Fork, scout ticket not updated;
  • 37024, conf, Enerplus, Ukulele 149-94-02C-01H, Mandaree, early production looks good; scout tick not updated;

Tuesday, October 5, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 230 for the year:

  • 37195, conf, Slawson, Mauser Federal 6-18-17H, North Fork, no production data, scout ticked not updated;

Monday, October 4, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 229 for the year:

  • None.

Sunday, October 3, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 229 for the year:

  • 37025, conf, Enerplus, Harp 149-94-02C-01H-TF, Mandaree, early production looks good; scout ticket not updated

Saturday, October 2, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 228 for the year:

  • 37026, conf, Enerplus, Guitar 149-94-02C-01H, Mandaree, early production looks okay; scout ticket not updated

Friday, October 1, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 228 for the year:

  • 35456, conf, QEP, MHA 5-29-30H-150-92,
  • 35454, conf, QEP, MHA 5-27-26H-150-92,
  • 35451, conf, QEP, MHA 4-29-30H-150-92,
  • 35449, conf, QEP, MHA 4-27-26H-150-92,
Thursday, September 30, 2021: 33 for the month, 44 for the quarter, 224 for the year:
  • 37027, conf, Enerplus, Cello 149-94-02C-01H-TF,
  • 30202, conf, Whiting, Klose Federal 21-27-1H,

Wednesday, September 29, 2021: 31 for the month, 42 for the quarter, 222 for the year:

  • None.

Tuesday, September 28, 2021: 31 for the month, 42 for the quarter, 222 for the year:

  • None.

Monday, September 27, 2021: 31 for the month, 42 for the quarter, 222 for the year:

  • 37245, conf, MRO, Armstrong 14-34H, Dunn County, Bailey, no data provided; scout ticket not updated;
  • 38181, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hurinenko 144-98-2B-11-1HS, Billings County, Little Knife; early, minimal production, scout ticket not updated;
  • 37028, conf, Enerplus, Mandolin 149-94-02C-01H, McKenzie County, Mandaree, early, nice production, scout ticket not updated;
  • 37029, conf, Enerplus, Fiddle 149-94-02C-01H-TF, McKenzie County, Mandaree, incredibly good well; scout ticket not updated;

Sunday, September 26, 2021: 29 for the month, 40 for the quarter, 220 for the year:

  • 38181, conf, Petro-Hutnt, Hurinenko 144-98-2B-11-1HS,
  • 37245, conf, MRO, Armstrong 14-34H,

Saturday, September 25, 2021: 27 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 218 for the year:

  • None.

Friday, September 24, 2021: 27 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 218 for the year:

  • None.

Thursday, September 23, 2021: 27 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 218 for the year:

  • None.

Wednesday, September 22, 2021: 27 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 218 for the year:

  • None.

Tuesday, September 21, 2021: 27 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 218 for the year:

  • None.

Monday, September 20, 2021: 27 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 218 for the year:

  • 38153, conf, CLR, Candee 12-9HSL, Chimney Butte, no data posted by the NDIC;
Sunday, September 19, 2021: 26 for the month, 37 for the quarter, 217 for the year:
  • 38154, conf, CLR, Candee 12-9HSL1, Chimney Butte, no data posted by the NDIC;
Saturday, September 18, 2021: 25 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 216 for the year:
  • None.
Friday, September 17, 2021: 25 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 216 for the year:
  • None.

Thursday, September 16, 2021: 25 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 216 for the year:
38156, conf, CLR, Kukla 10-16HSL1,

Wednesday, September 15, 2021: 24 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 215 for the year:

  • None.

Tuesday, September 14, 2021: 24 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 215 for the year:

  • None.

Monday, September 13, 2021: 24 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 215 for the year:

  • None.

Sunday, September 12, 2021: 24 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 215 for the year:

  • 37887, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Sylven 2-14-23-158N-100W-MBH, Winner,

Saturday, September 11, 2021: 23 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 214 for the year:

  • 37886, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Sylven 2-11-2-158N-100W-MBH, Winner,
Friday, September 10, 2021: 22 for the month, 33 for the quarter, 213 for the year:
  • 37885, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Sylven 3-11-2-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, the NDIC has the scout ticket as conf;

Thursday, September 9, 2021: 21 for the month, 32 for the quarter, 212 for the year:

  • 35860, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hurinenko 144-98-2A-11-3H, the NDIC has the scout ticket as conf; well of interest, #33596, t2/18; off line for one month; no evidence of halo effect;
  • 37884, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Burgess 3-14-23-158N-100W-MBH, the NDIC has the scout ticket as conf;

Wednesday, September 8, 2021: 19 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 210 for the year:

  • 37882, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Burgess 4-14-23-158N-100W-MBH, the NDIC has the scout ticket as conf;
  • 37883, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Sylven 4-11-2-158N-100W-MBH, the NDIC has the scout ticket as conf;

Tuesday, September 7, 2021: 17 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 208 for the year:

  • #34579, conf/loc/loc; Enerplus, Basilisk 151-94-16B-21H-TF, Sanish, no production data;

Monday, September 6, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

  • None.

Sunday, September 5, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

  • None.

Saturday, September 4, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

  • None.

Friday, September 3, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

  • None.

Thursday, September 2, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

  • None.

Wednesday, September 1, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

  • None.

Tuesday, August 31, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

  • None.

Monday, August 30, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

  • None.
Sunday, August 29, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
  • None.
Saturday, August 28, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
  • None.

Friday, August 27, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

  • 37920, conf, Slawson, Whirlcat Federal 5-31-19TFH, Big Bend, no production data,

Thursday, August 26, 2021: 15 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 206 for the year: 

  • 37919, conf, Slawson, Sniper Federal 3-7-7H, Big Bend, no production data,

Wednesday, August 25, 2021: 14 for the month, 25 for the quarter, 205 for the year:

  • 37918, conf, Slawson, Sniper Federal 4-6-7TFH, Big Bend, no production data;

Tuesday, August 24, 2021: 13 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 204 for the year:

  • None.

Monday, August 23, 2021: 13 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 204 for the year:

  • None.

Sunday, August 22, 2021: 13 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 204 for the year:

  • 37988, conf, CLR, Harms Federal 18-33H, Antelope, producing, data not updated;

Saturday, August 21, 2021: 12 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 203 for the year:

  • 36078, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hurinenko 144-98-11C-2-2H, Little Knife, no production data, 

Friday, August 20, 2021: 11 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 202 for the year:

  • 37989, conf, CLR, Harms Federal 17-33H1, Antelope, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 30K 6/21;

Thursday, August 19, 2021: 10 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 201 for the year:

  • None.

Wednesday, August 18, 2021: 10 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 201 for the year:

  • 37843, conf, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HY, Heart Butte, no production data,

Tuesday, August 17, 2021: 9 for the month, 20 for the quarter, 200 for the year:

  • 22652, conf, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HC, Heart Butte, no production data,

Monday, August 16, 2021: 8 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 199 for the year:

  • 37407, conf,  CRL, Gale 14-32HSL, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
  • 22653, conf, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HZ, Heart Butte, no production data,

Sunday, August 15, 2021: 6 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 197 for the year:

  • 37842, conf, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HDL, Heart Butte, no production data,
Saturday, August 14, 2021: 5 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 196 for the year:
  • 37941, conf, CLR, Bang 3033H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data,

Friday, August 13, 2021 4 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 195 for the year:

  • None

Thursday, August 12, 2021 4 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 195 for the year:

  • None.

Wednesday, August 11, 2021: 4 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 195 for the year:

  • 37406, conf, CLR, Gale 13-32H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data,

Tuesday, August 10, 2021 3 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 194 for the year:

  • None.

Monday, August 9, 2021: 3 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 194 for the year:

  • 37405, conf, CLR, Gale 12-32H, Cedar Coulee, no production data,

Sunday, August 8, 2021: 2 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 193 for the year:

  • None.

Satruday, August 7, 2021: 2 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 193 for the year:

  • None.

Friday, August 6, 2021: 2 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 193 for the year:

  • None.

Thursday, August 5, 2021: 2 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 193 for the year:

  • None.

Wednesday, August 4, 2021: 2 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 193 for the year:

  • 37606, conf, CLR, Carus 3-28H, Cedar Coulee, no production data,

Tuesday, August 3, 2021: 1 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 192 for the year:

  • None.

Monday, August 2, 2021: 1 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 192 for the year:

  • 37854, conf, CLR, Carus 14-28H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data,

Sunday, August 1, 2021: 0 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

  • None.

Saturday, July 31, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

  • None.

Friday, July 30, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

  • None.

Thursday, July 29, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

  • None.

Wednesday, July 28, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

  • None.

Tuesday, July 27, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

  • None.

Monday, July 26, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

  • None.

Sunday, July 25, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

  • None.
Saturday, July 24, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:
  • 37888, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 158-91-16C--2H, Kittleson Slough, producing,

Friday, July 23, 2021: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 190 for the year:

  • 37889, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 158-91-16C-9-3H, Kittleson Slough, producing,
  • 37259, conf, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-4-2-9H, Eightmile, producing,
  • 35562, conf, Liberty Resources, McGinnity E 159-93-31-30-4TFH, Northwest McGregor, producing,

Thursday, July 22, 2021: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 187 for the year:

  • None.

Wednesday, July 21, 2021: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 187 for the year:

  • None.

Tuesday, July 20, 2021: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 187 for the year:

  • None.

Monday, July 19, 2021: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 187 for the year:

  • None.
Sunday, July 18, 2021: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 187 for the year:
  • 37479, conf, BR, F Jorgenson 1E TFH, Elidah, no production data;
Saturday, July 17, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 186 for the year:
  • 35560, conf, Liberty Resources, McGinnity E 159-95-31-30-20MBH, McGregor, producing,

Friday, July 16, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 186 for the year:

  • None.

Thursday, July 15, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 185 for the year:

  • None.

Wednesday, July 14, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 185 for the year:

  • None.

Tuesday, July 13, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 185 for the year:

  • None.

Monday, July 12, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 185 for the year:

  • 37018, 481, Oasis, Thelen Federal 5397 44-34 14TX, t1/21; cum 72K 5/21;

Sunday, July 11, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 184 for the year:

  • None.

Saturday, July 10, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 184 for the year:

  • None.

Friday, July 9, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 184 for the year:

  • 37401, drl/NC, CLR, Gale 10-32H1, Cedar Coulee, first production, --; t--; cum --;

Thursday, July 8, 2021: 3 for the month, 3 for the quarter, 183 for the year:

  • 37400, drl/NC, CLR, Gale 9-32H, first production, --; t--; cum --;

Wednesday, July 7, 2021: 2 for the month, 2 for the quarter, 182 for the year:

  • None.

Tuesday, July 6, 2021: 2 for the month, 2 for the quarter, 182 for the year:

  • 37399, drl/NC, CLR, Gale 8-32H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data;

Monday, July 5, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:

  • None.

Sunday, July 4, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:

  • None.
Saturday, July 3, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:
  • None.

Friday, July 2, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:

  • None.

Thursday, July 1, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:
37481, drl/NC, BR, F Jorgenson 1C TFH, Elidah, no production data,


**********************************
Data for 3Q21: This Page
Data for 2Q21: 2Q21
Data for 1Q21:  1Q21
 Data for 4Q20: 4Q20
Data for 3Q20: 3Q20
Data for 2Q20: 2Q20
Data for 1Q20: 1Q20
Data for 4Q19: 4Q19
Data for 3Q19:  3Q19
Data for 2Q19: 2Q19
Data for 1Q19: 1Q19
Data for 4Q18: 4Q18
Data for 3Q18: 3Q18
Data for 2Q18: 2Q18
Data for 1Q18: 1Q18
Data for 4Q17: 4Q17
Data for 3Q17: 3Q17
Data for 4Q16: 4Q16
Data for 3Q16: 3Q16
Data for 2Q16: 2Q16
Data for 1Q16: 1Q16
Data for 4Q15: 4Q15
Data for 3Q15: 3Q15
Data for 2Q15: 2Q15
Data for 1Q15: 1Q15
Data for 4Q14: 4Q14
Data for 3Q14: 3Q14
Data for 2Q14: 2Q14
Data for 1Q14: 1Q14
Data for 4Q13: 4Q13
Data for 3Q13: 3Q13
Data for 2Q13: 2Q13
Data for 1Q13: 1Q13
Data for 4Q12: 4Q12
Data for 3Q12: 3Q12
Data for 2Q12: 2Q12
  Data for 1Q12: 1Q12   
Data for 4Q11: 4Q11 
Data for 3Q11: 3Q11 
Data for 2Q11: 2Q11 
 Data for 1Q11: 1Q11  
 Data for 2H10: 2H10 
Through 1H10: 1H10