Notes From All Over -- The Flathead Lake Edition -- June 28, 2021

Supply deficit: I think the most fascinating story to watch play out the next two years -- whether there will be a supply deficit, a supply deficit to push the price of WTI to $100.

• already a natural gas shortage? Natural gas shortage pushes coal prices to 10-year high. Link to Irina Slav.

Saudi: along that same line, the second most fascinating story to follow the next two years -- whether Saudi Arabia (Saudi Aramco) controls the supply / demand narrative. The consensus is Saudi Arabia does control the narrative; some of us think not.

Supply deficit:

• OPEC thinks so; by August, 2021.

Covid-19:

• another conspiracy theory called into question by a seemingly credible "western" observer with first-hand experience. Link here. 
• it started here;
  
• during the pandemic, most Americans got richer -- especially the rich. Link here: https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/during-covid-19-most-americans-got-richer-especially-the-rich-u-s-households-gained-13-5-trillion.
• vaccination rollout hits a wall; first noted by the blog some weeks ago; now a "mainstream media" story; Biden administration targeting the "movable middle." Good luck. Link here. It doesn't help that mainstream media posts every crackpot interview.
  

US shale: not primed for growth. A lot of headwinds.

Oil and gas executives remained upbeat this quarter as energy prices rebounded, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, although concerns are growing over rising costs. 

The Dallas Fed's energy survey of 152 companies in Texas, southern New Mexico and northern Louisiana on 9-17 June showed that activity has continued to grow strongly in the past three months. 

Drillers also plan to step up spending. But respondents voiced scepticism about the energy transition and the possibility of a carbon tax, as well as concerns about a less favourable regulatory environment under President Joe Biden. 

Three-quarters of those polled see a global crude supply gap in the next two to four years.

DUCs: update from the EIA. A hefty decline? Link here. It's really all about the Permian. See also Tsvetana Paraskova.

Pivot to green energy:

• Scotland: reality. Link here. Was a destination; now closed.
  

Technology:

• "hi-def music: Apple, Amazon, and Spotify; let the competition begin. Link here to The WSJ.

Investing:

• calm before the storm? Watch out below. Link to The WSJ.
• the S&P 500 has not had a 5% correction since October, 2020; turmoil in the depths. today? S&P 600 down 0.1% but the NASDAQ up 0.6% and AAPL doing very well, thank you very much.
• the last Monday of the second quarter: NASDAQ "surges" to new record; S&P hits new record; Dow falls 0.44%.

Uber: likely winner this year in the "car business." Not enough "rentals" available. Folks will fly to destination; take Uber to their "vacation-spot." Trust me on this one.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

USAF: When you positively, absolutely have to deliver overnight: F-15s and F-16s. Whoo-hoo. Links everywhere. US hits Iranian-backed-terrorist-launched drones. This guy is clueless. Link to source here.

Bad hair day: for Toyota. To story here.

Trending: this is pretty awesome. While out at Flathead Lake, the subject of The Big Lebowki came up. For those who had seen it, all agree: (one of) the best ever. So, then, less than twenty-four hours later, trending on social media: name the five movies you have seen at least ten times. I guess it's John Goodman's birthday.

TV personality, not! It's not often a politician does not want to be on television. South Dakota attorney general will not allow audio or video recordings of his trial. Link here. 

Clifton, Texas: Norwegian Capital of Texas. The nearby community of Norse is the final resting place of Cleng Peerson, commonly recognized as the "father of Norwegian immigration to america." The founder of Norse was Ole Canuteson (Ole Knudsen) from the Stavanger region of Norway. 

Montana: "My favorite state has not yet been invented. It will be called Montana, and it will be perfect." Abraham Lincoln, 1864.

PGA: what in the world happened to Bubba Watson yesterday? Asking for a friend.NBC Golf says he collapsed on the back nine. Covid? Link here. 

Labor market: normalizing in red states; remains broken in blue states. 

Business space: office vacancies in downtown Toronto hit their highest since 2008 with companies questioning their long-term needs for space. Link here.