North Dakota Oil And Gas Permits -- 2015 -- December 28, 2015

It's hard to believe but the last (and maybe the only) time I posted "permit stats" in 2015 was at the end of January, 2015.

At that time, based on barely a month of data:

Projections for number of permits at the end of the calendar year based on permits of that same calendar year as of January 29th:

• 2015: 3,033
• 2014: 3,184
• 2013: 2,744
• 2012: 2,102

The actual number of permits issued for the full calendar year:

• 2015: ~ 2,050
• 2014: 3,012
• 2013: 2,671
• 2012: 2,522

As of last week, the NDIC issued 2,051 oil and gas permits for 2015. This is from my data base; it may vary a bit from the official NDIC figures.

At that rate, with only a few days left to go, the final tally would be 2,068 new oil and gas permits in 2015, well off the mark from previous years.

The projection for calendar years and 2013 and 2014 came in pretty close.

Disclaimer and a reminder: this is from my data base. I often make horrendous errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

There must have been a mini-surge in permits in late 2012 to beat the projection by a fairly good margin.

But this year was a real bust. Based on January, 2015, data, the projections were for over 3,000 permits. In fact, we barely got to 2,000 and many of those were eventually cancelled. And despite that North Dakota's production remained very, very robust.

And back in 2013 and 2014 we were watching upwards of 200 active rigs drilling in the state. At the end of this year, less than 65.

New Permits In Past Six Weeks By Operator -- March 24, 2015

Disclaimer: this is from my database. There are likely to be typographical and factual errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

New permits by operator since February 1, 2015, through today:

Armstrong: 1
BR: 25
BTA: 8
CLR: 9
Corinthian: 8
Crescent Point: 3
Denbury: 1
Emerald: 3
Enduro: 2
Enerplus: 4
EOG: 18
Hess: 16
Halcon: 9
Liberty Resources: 5
Missouri River Resources: 2
MRO: 11
Newfield: 11
Noah Energy: 2
North Plains: 1
Oasis:10
OXY USA: 1
Petro-Hunt: 1
QEP: 12
Sedalia: 1
Sinclair: 2
Slawson: 12
SM Energy: 8
Statoil: 15
Whiting: 68
WPX: 14
XTO: 52

Maybe I'm in the minority, but I think there are a lot of story lines in this list.

XTO:

• last permit, and it was a single permit that day: March 16, 2015
• prior to that, three permits on March 12, 2015
• a single permit, March 11, 2015
• a single permit, March 9, 2015
• deep pockets (financially)

Whiting:

• most Whiting permits are for pad drilling, 4 - 6 wells per pad
• 14 consecutive permits between March 4 and March 6, inclusive, 2015

QEP:

• all pad drilling

WPX:

• pad drilling

 CLR:

• last permit, a singleton, March 12, 2015
• last permit, prior to that, a singleton, February 6, 2015
• six permits, pad drilling, Alkali Creek, February 4, 2015

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I developed the list to try to undertand WLL's decision to issue 35 million shares and to issue $1.75 billion more in debt.