Sunday, August 30, 2015

Reason #5: Why I Love To Blog -- Back To South Africa; Apple: Another Game Changer -- August 30, 2015

This is so incredibly cool. On August 21, 2015, I posted a "completely unnecessary post" but I learned a lot in the process. I had no idea that little bit of trivia would show up on the radar scope so soon.

This is the bit of trivia from the "completely unnecessary post":
VTTI started building a new facility in Cape Town in July; South Africa has emerged as an increasingly important way station for oil, with traders able to easily flip bbls east and west from that location depending on regional demand.
Now, Sunday evening, August 30, 2015, this tweet:
South African govt official says country intends to import LNG from Iran and resume purchase of crude oil for its new refineries, IRNA reports.
IRNA is the official news agency of Iran.

Fortunately CO2 Does Not Cross International Boundaries
I Wonder If Governor Dayton Would Dare Call South Africans Neanderthals?

AFP is reporting:
President Jacob Zuma inaugurated on Sunday the first unit of a massive new coal-fired power plant in South Africa, hailing it as a step away from the country's energy woes.
The Medupi power station, situated north of Johannesburg, is to produce 4,800 megawatts of electricity by 2019, when it is expected to be operating at full capacity.
South Africa has suffered through rolling blackouts, known as load shedding, as the state-owned utility Eskom has sought to ease pressure on its stable of ageing and poorly-maintained power stations.
South Africa last new gas-fired power plant opened in 2013, while a new coal-burning plant has not come online since 1996. 
The new plant's first unit began operating in March and its 749 megawatts of electricity should help ease the stress on the country's troubled electrical grid.
Another coal-fired plant is under construction in Kusile, east of Johannesburg, and it is expected to pump out a flow of electricity similar to Medupi, but that project has also been hampered by major delays. 
If it ever gets up to capacity (4,800 MW), this new power plant will be among the top ten (maybe the top five) largest coal plants in the world. China has one 5,000 MW coal plant.  Unless I missed it, the US has no coal plants that size. And, yes, South Africa was one of the first countries to sign the Kyoto Protocol.

I think the big story here is not what is going on in South Africa, but think about this: the population of South Africa is around 50 million. India: 1.3 billion. 

50 million / 1,300,000,000 = 4%.  

Talk about all the intermittent energy (wind and solar) that you want, but at the end of the day, it's going to be King Coal for India, China, and probably most of the entire sub-Saharan African continent. 

  • President Obama's term ends in less than two years; and, 
  • CO2 does not cross international boundaries.
 Meanwhile, the EPA is going after methane leakage in the natural gas industry.

Ad Blocking

On small screens on mobile devices like smart phones and tablets, there's not a lot of room. Ads can take up a lot of that real estate.

In addition, fancy, colorful, video ads can slow the re-fresh rate.

All-in-all, most folks probably don't care for ads on their smart phone or their tablets. Wouldn't it be great to download an app that eliminate those ads?

Well, it's coming, and it's coming from Apple. Since Apple relies on little to no advertising revenue, unlike Google that depends on advertising revenue, this is huge.

The Wall Street Journal reports.
Ad blockers have long been available for Web browsers on personal computers, and have attracted a small but loyal following. Users can surf the Web without seeing banner ads, advertised links on search results or commercials before online videos. Apple permits ad blockers on its Safari browser for PCs.
About 6% of global Internet users employ ad blockers, according to an August report by PageFair and Adobe Systems Inc. That report said 198 million users ran ad blockers in June 2015, up 40% from a year earlier. Wells Fargo analyst Peter Stabler estimates that ad blockers will reduce spending on Internet ads by $12.5 billion world-wide in 2016.
“The ad-blocking problem is real and growing, and ad-blocking on iOS is only going to accelerate it,” said Jason Kint, CEO of Digital Content Next, an association of digital publishers.
Apple isn’t powering the ad-blocking software itself. Instead, it is allowing outside developers to write programs to work with the browser in its iOS 9. That means users must find an ad-blocking app and install it, an extra step that may deter some people. 
Let the fun begin.

Apple doesn't refer to this ad "ad blocking," but rather as "content blocking." Whatever.

BR's Shenandoah Wells

BR's Shenandoah wells in Keene oil field:
  • 28073, 1,512, BR, Shenandoah 14-36TFH, no test date, almost no production since first production, 1/15; re-drill; see below; t11/15; cum 363K 1/21; cum 371K 7/21;
  • 28074, 1,643, BR, Shanandoah 14-36MBH ULW, Keene, 4 sections, t1/15; cum 274K 1/21; off line 1/20; back on line 6/21; nice production;
  • 28287, 2,285, BR, Shenandoah 24-36MBH, Keene, t1/15; cum 302K 1/21; cum 314K 7/21;28
  • 28288, 1,844, BR, Shenandoah 24-36TFH, Keene, t4/15; cum 189K 1/21; cum 195K 7/21;
  • 28289, 1,643, BR, Shenandoah 24-36MBH, Keene, t2/15; cum 340K 1/21; cum 346K 7/21;
  • 20559, 1,675, BR, Shenandoah 34-36TFH, Keene, t12/11; cum 344K 1/21; cum 351K 7/21;
  • 17974, 1,068, BR, Shenandoah 34-36H, Keene, t6/09; cum 582K 1/21; cum 587K 7/21;
  • 28413, 2,544, BR, Shenandoah 44-36TFH, Keene, t3/15; cum 314K 1/21; cum 320K 7/21;
  • 28414, 2,204, BR, Shenandoah 44-36MBH ULW, 4 sections, t3/15; cum 557K 1/21; cum 566K 7/21;
Re-Entry? Re-Drill?

September 29, 2019: I see an "R" has been added to this permit number:
  • 28073, 1,512, BR, Shenandoah 14-36TFH-R, Keene, t11/15; 329K 7/19;
Let's see what the file report says:
  • a sundry form dated July 16, 2015: 1280 Extended Reach Lateral -- Sidetrack / ReDrill
    • purpose: sidetrack off the existing upper Three Forks lateral and drill a parallel lateral 100 feet east, then complete with a 4-1/2" open hole liner
    • "due to issues with the liner hanger and the inability to produce this well, BR is requesting approval to redrill the lateral section...request to rename the well the Shenandoah 14-36TFH-R -- July 27, 2015
  • September 22, 2015: this well successfully reached TD on 9/22/2015; awaiting completion
  • First Frack: tested, November 18, 2014 -- 5 stages; less than 500,000 lbs proppant
  • Second Frack: tested, October 11, 2015 -- 35 stages; 7.3 million lbs
Production following the new frack:
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS6-2016301720217208806840086400670
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS5-201631153701537560902981929650148
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS4-2016301890318892588733386333670
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS3-2016312191521888629735480354610
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS2-2016181397613976324820531205160
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS1-20161163526385273610485104710
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS12-2015311778217664474827973253802562
BAKKEN/THREE FORKS11-2015736363636164272532876953

No Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Weekend, Monday? -- August 30, 2015

Six months ago it was the end of February. Wells come off the confidential list after six months, but it is done by the "date" of the month. So, wells coming off the 28th of August were put on the list the 28th of February. Since there was no 29th of February, no 30th of February, and no 31st of February this year, there should be no wells coming off the confidential list Monday, or over the weekend.

Upper Devonian Burket / Geneseo Shale

Note: the Upper Devonian Burket / Geneseo shale is tracked at "the Upper Devonian."

Oil: The middle Bakken, the upper Three Forks, and then the benches of the lower Three Forks, in the Williston Basin.

Natural gas: The Marcellus, the Utica, and now the Burket / Geneseo Shale in the Appalachian Basin.

From Gas And Oil, May 14, 2015, this is the study recommended by a reader for those interested in the natural gas plays in the Appalachian Basin (archived):
The Marcellus Shale has dominated the energy headlines for news coming out of the Appalachian Basin for the last 8 years or so and for good reason – its vast natural gas resources and production have almost single-handedly transformed the entire energy marketplace in North America.
The Utica Shale has also garnered a lot of attention for continuing consistent success in the wet gas window and some recent eye-popping initial production rates in the dry gas window.
Flying under the radar is Appalachia’s 3rd resource shale play, the Burket/Geneseo Shale. Less flashy, with lower initial production numbers, the shale is unlikely to challenge the other “Big 2” shales for size of resource potential, although total reserves may be significant.
It is likely that the play will benefit from its “stacked pay” potential that allow companies to decrease drilling and production costs through utilization of existing well pads and infrastructure, liquids-rich production in some areas and possible flat decline rates. As of mid-April, 2015 a total of 85 Burket/Geneseo horizontal wells have been completed as productive in Pennsylvania (64 wells) and West Virginia (21 wells).
How much?
Technically recoverable reserves in the Southwest Core of the Core are projected to be 29 TCFe with another possible 52 TCFe if the remaining core areas prove viable. These numbers are likely to expand if the flatter decline is confirmed, leading to increases in EURs.
To put 29 TCFe (trillion cubic feet) + 52 TCFe (almost 100 TCFe) in perspective, it was reported today:
The Italian energy company Eni discovered a "supergiant" natural gas field off Egypt, describing it as the "largest-ever" found in the Mediterranean Sea.
Eni said the discovery — made in its Zohr prospect "in the deep waters of Egypt" — could hold a potential 30 trillion cubic feet of gas over an area of 38.6 square miles.
A natural gas play in the Appalachian Basin my be three times larger than the "largest-ever" found in the Mediterranean Sea, which was described as a "supergiant" -- just one step lower than a "monster-supergiant." (I made that last part up.)

BR's 22-Well Proposal For A 2560-Acre Standup In Pershing Oil Field, August 30, 2015

From the September, 2015, NDIC hearing docket agenda:
  • Case 24462, BR, Pershing-Bakken, 22 wells on a stand-up 2560-acre unit, 2 wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit; McKenzie; 18/19/30/31-150-96; 

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? Okay, This Is Natural Gas; As Big As The Mighty Marcellus Is, The Utica May Be Bigger -- August 30, 2015


Later, 11:50 a.m. Central Time: see first comment.
If you wish to get get additional perspective on this stuff, especially the size of the US - specifically the Appalachian Basin - natural gas resources, I would refer you to Wrightstone Energy's recent presentation on the Burket/Geneseo formations which are located above the Marcellus. They are said to contain OVER 30 trillion cubic feet RECOVERABLE! 
The Burket and Geneseo are only two (the largest) of several hydrocarbon formations collectively known as the Upper Devonian.
EQT recently said they were going to shift their development program AWAY from the UD to focus on the much larger, emerging Utica, which is deeper than the Marcellus.
How big is the Utica? Well, Consol just said they may re-priortize their plans and now target the Utica ahead of even the Mighty Marcellus.
You know, when you read this stuff, one gets the feeling that the switch from coal to natural gas in the US is a slam dunk, and even more importantly, when you listen to folks who want to move to intermittent energy (wind, solar), they are so living in the late 20th century when we thought we were running out of fossil fuel. Unfettered, America will have the least expensive energy for decades (centuries?) to come.

Original Post 

Yahoo News has an in-depth story on a huge natural gas find off the coast of Egypt. Because it's such an important story, I will post the story in its entirety:
Italian energy giant Eni says it's found the largest-ever gas field in Mediterranean off Egypt.

Fortunately, US News provided a bit more information:
The Italian energy company Eni SpA announced Sunday it has discovered a "supergiant" natural gas field off Egypt, describing it as the "largest-ever" found in the Mediterranean Sea.
Eni said the discovery — made in its Zohr prospect "in the deep waters of Egypt" — could hold a potential 30 trillion cubic feet of gas over an area of 38.6 square miles.
The discovery well is 190 kilometers (about 120 miles) from the Egyptian coast, and is at a depth of 1,450 meters ( 4,757 feet) in the Shorouk Block, the company said.
I honestly don't know what to make of "30 trillion cubic feet." Back on June 30, 2014, I struggled with the same issue
So, quick review. How many remember how much natural gas a country must have to be said to have "massive" amounts? The answer, apparently, is 20 trillion cubic meters. At least that's how Turkey's natural gas reserves are described, or more exactly, potential reserves. That's an easy number to remember. 
I said I was confused, but right or wrong, I suggested:
  • Turkey might have 20 trillion cubic meters of natural gas reserves, which is considered "massive"
  • the US apparently has about 210 trillion cubic meters
  • the Brits might have 40 trillion cubic meters
  • the Scots have a lot but probably not 1333 trillion cubic meters
As long as I've gone this far, I might as well see what a conversion might do:
  • 30 trillion = 5 x 10^12 boe
At another source, 30 trillion cubic feet of natural gas works out to about 5 billion boe crude oil.

I often make simple arithmetic errors. You may assume I have made errors above. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

A township in North Dakota is generally six miles x six miles = 36 square miles.

Oh, that pesky cubic feet vs cubic meters.

Egypt story: 30 trillion cubic feet = 850 billion cubic meters which is way above the 20 trillion cubic meters of natural gas to be considered "massive."

And, then, of course, how much of this is recoverable.

Whatever. It looks like Egypt could be self-sufficient in energy if the country got its act together.

NDIC September, 2015, Hearing Dockets, Summary

Nothing new here; simply doing some housekeeping.

The NDIC September, 2015, hearing dockets. I provided the highlights awhile back but never provided the full summary. The summary follows but it is not particularly interesting. I no longer include the "continued" cases, only the new cases. A couple of pages of supplement hearings have been added but they are all "continued" cases.

Disclaimer: these summaries are for my personal use only; you are free to read them; don't quote me on them; there will be typographical and factual errors.  If this is important to you go to the source. Link here.

Dockets are tracked here.

Highlights of the September, 2015, hearing agenda.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

24445, NDIC, bond requirement for Gadeco to operating in McKenzie County
24446, True Oil, Bowline-Bakken, proper spacing, McKenzie
24447, Hess, Manitou-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 2 wells, Mountrail
24448, Whiting, Heart Butte and/or Mandaree-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, 1 well, Dunn
24449, Whiting, Moccasin Creek-Bakken, establish a 1280-acre unit, 2 wells; establish 2 overlapping 2560-acre unit, 1 well on each, Dunn
24450, BR, Westberg, Twin Valley and/or Banks-Bakken, establish five 2560-acre units; one well on each, McKenzie
24451, BR, Dimmick Lake, Edge, and/or Elidah-Bakken, establish four 2560-acre units, one well on each, McKenzie
24452, MRO, SWD, Reunion Bay, Mountrail
24453, Oasis, SWD, Siverston, McKenzie
24454, SM Energy, pooling,
24455, SM Energy, pooling,
24456, SM Energy, pooling,
24457, Hess, Tioga-Bakken 13 wells on a 1280-acre unit, Williams
24458, Hess, pooling,
24459, PEtro-Hunt, Charlson-Bakken, 4 wells on an exsiting 1920-acre unit, McKenzie
24460, BR, pooling,
24461, BR, Blue Buttes-Bakken, 2 wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit, McKenzie
24462, BR, Pershing-Bakken, 22 wells on a stand-up 2560-acre unit, 2 wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit; McKenzie; 18/19/30/31-150-96;
24463, HRC, Antelope-Sanish, 13 wells on a 1280-acre unit, McKenzie
24464, Legacy Reserves, commingling

Thursday, September 17, 2015

24465, Zavanna, Stockyard Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, multiple wells on both units, Williams
24466, Zavanna, Stony Creek-Bakken, establish four overlapping 1280-acre units, multiple wells on each, Williams
24467, Statoil, Banks-Bakken, reduce setback rules, Williams, McKenzie
24468, Statoil, Stony Creek and Avoca-Bakken, reduce setback rules, Williams
24469, Statoil, Cow Creek and Todd-Bakken, reduce setback rules, Williams
24470, Statoil, Williston and Catwalk-Bakken, reduce setback rules, Williams
24471, XTO, exception for an individual well, #29436, Sorenson 14X-33EXH, McKenzie
24472, XTO, exception for an individual well, #28887, Sorenson 14X-31EXH, McKenzie
24473, XTO, Siverston-Bakken, reduce setback rules, McKenzie
24474, XTO, North Tobacco Garden-Bakken, reduce setback rules, McKenzie
24475, XTO, flaring,
24476, XTO, flaring,
24477, XTO, flaring,
24478, XTO, flaring,
24479, XTO, flaring,
24480, XTO, flaring,
24481, XTO, flaring,
24482, XTO, flaring,
24483, XTO, flaring,
2484, WPX, Mandaree-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, 14 wells; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 1 well, Dunn
24485, WPX, Antelope-Sanish, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 1 well, McKenzie
24486, Newfield, Sandrocks-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units, 1 well each, McKenzie
24487, Newfield, South Tobacco Garden-Bakken, establish four overlapping 2560-acre units; one well each, McKenzie
24488, Newfield, Siverston-Bakken, establish tree overlapping 2560-acre units, 1 well each McKenzie
24489, Newfield, Sand Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, one well, McKenzie
24490, Liberty Resources, McGregor-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3200-acre unit; 1 well, Williams
24491, CLR, Antelope-Sanish, 13 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, McKenzie
24492, CLR, flaring,
2493, CLR, flaring,
24494, Fidelity, pooling,
24495, XTO, pooling,
24496, XTO, pooling,
24497, XTO, pooling,
24498, XTO, pooling,
24499, Citation, SWD, Stinson Field, Bottineau County

News From Other States -- August 30, 2015

From today's Los Angeles Times: taxpayers have never paid more for public worker pensions but it is still not enough. The good news: the state is working on a plan to help insure the state's pension program remains solvent. Guess how they plan to do that:
  • they are going to move more of their equity holdings into bonds
  • bonds do not provide as much return, but they tend not to be as volatile
If the return is not as good as the return they are now getting, how does the state plan to make up the difference?
The plan would increase payments from taxpayers even more in coming years with the goal of mitigating the severe financial pain that would happen with another recession and stock market crash.
Under the proposal, CalPERS would begin slowly moving more money into safer investments such as bonds, which aren't usually subject to the severe losses that stocks face.
Because the more conservative investments are expected to reduce CalPERS' future financial returns, taxpayers would have to pick up even more of the cost of workers' pensions.
Will the folks who are actually going to get the pensions have to pay more? Of course not. I cannot make this stuff up.
Most public workers would be exempt from paying any more. Only those workers hired in 2013 or later would have to contribute more to their retirements under the plan.
Actually, that's a bit disingenuous. All new hires would pay more and then we would have people working side-by-side paying different amounts for their pension. That hardly seems fair. LOL.

And, of course, the state is rationalizing all this by saying, "well, that's how others are doing it":
The changes would begin moving CalPERS — which provides benefits to 1.7 million employees and retirees of the state, cities and other local governments — toward a strategy used by many corporate pension plans. For years, corporate plans have been reducing their risk by trimming the amount of stocks they hold.
One reason for the current cash shortage:
The large hike in pension benefits that state legislators voted to give public workers in 1999 when the stock market was booming.
Anyway, so that's California.

Meanwhile the governor of Minnesota calls folks in North Dakota "Neanderthals" because they still use coal for electricity. 

A reader noted that "name-calling" usually begins when the individual has lost the intellectual argument.

Meanwhile, North Dakotans just go on about their business, providing food and energy for the rest of the nation and asking for nothing in return.

By the way, bad, bad news for Alaska. Here's the photo op that President Obama is trying to achieve when he visits Alaska. Being reported in the Los Angeles Times but it looks like he won't be able to get to this island. It looks like President Obama will work to achieve his environmental goals for the Lower 48 on the backs of Alaskans by barring access to natural resources.