Sunday, November 14, 2021

Anticipation And Insanitiy -- What A Week! November 14, 2021


  • $1.5 trillion infrastructure bill passed
    • December, 2020: $1 trillion
    • January, 2021: $1.9 trillion
    • November, 2021: $1.5 trillion
    • all yet to really get into the US economy
  • Americans getting used to non-transitory inflation
    • or is it transitory? down to 2% by end of 2022? see USB link below;
  • supply chain issues: fewer headlines
  • Covid epidemic (panic) --> Covid pandemic (global lockdown) --> Covid endemic (yawn)
  • Rivian IPO
    • the rich get richer: Amazon bought $200 million of Rivian stock at its IPO price of $78/share
      • now owns a total of 158,363,834 shares of Rivian; works out to $20 billion by end of last week;
    • Rivian built twelve cars in 3Q21; must be really nice cars (or were they pick-up trucks?)
    • much more at this link;
  • Apple's one-minute sales (link pending)
  • American businesses are betting big on the future: UBS, optimistic; link here;
  • Deere: strike over?
  • oil in a trading range
  • streaming wars
  • GE splits into three companies
  • JNJ splits into two companies
  • Bitcoin soaring; uses immense amounts of energy
  • coal is now seen as a transitional fuel (John Kerry signs off on Chinese, Indian position)
  • North Dakota co-op sets corn shipment record;
  • buybacks: Berkshire, $7.6 billion purchase of its own shares in 3Q21;


  • Brandon: killed the Keystone; now...
  • Schumer: can't handle the high price of gasoline in his state; calls for opening the SPR; link here to Reuters; law of unintended consequences --
    • 50/50 chance: will bring gasoline prices down in the short term (winter, yawn)
    • 100% chance: it will result in higher prices in mid-term (spring, let's go Brandon)
    • bring it on: watch $80-oil go to $100-oil next spring when "we" don't even have the SPR to turn to;
  • meanwhile, Brandon's spokesperson: "Our view is that the rise in gasoline prices over the long term makes an even stronger case for doubling down our investment and our focus on clean energy options." -- Psaki. In other words, "They need to stay home, and eat cake."
  • go, saki, go!

Someone Is Being Played

Previously posted, link to Irina Slav

One of two things is going on. Either we're being played (most likely) or President Biden is being played and there are two competing factions in the White House with regard to the "high price" of gasoline: one faction, reality-based and concerned about the mid-term elections; the other faction, ideological and want to see higher-gasoline prices to assist the EV industry.

A Geologic Mystery

Four links:

  • BBC: the strange race to track down a missing billion years. September 1, 2021.
  • Scishow: is the mystery of earth's 1.2 billion missing years solved?
  • Wiki: the Great Unconformity.
  • Eos: erasing a billion years of geologic time across the globe, February 5, 2018.

AirPods Are Out; Wired Headpohones Are In

Link here to The WSJ.

Humble ‘retro’ corded headphones are making an unexpected return, for both aesthetic and practical reasonsAirPods have become too widespread to be cool. 
So, perhaps inevitably, contrarian trendsetters are reviving some ancient technology: corded headphones. Fashionable young celebrities including Bella Hadid, Lily-Rose Depp and ZoĆ« Kravitz have been photographed strutting around town with blatantly corded headphones. 
An Instagram account called @wireditgirls has sprung up to document these cords in the wild. And TikTokers record videos that offer both practical reasons and more philosophical justifications for plugging back in. 
On the practical level, price is crucial. While AirPods range from $129 for the most basic 2nd-generation model to $179 for the new 3rd-gen release to $549 for the AirPods Max, Apple corded headphones go for just $19, and those from other brands can cost even less. 
For disorganized types, corded headphones are easier to keep track of and needn’t be charged. 
Plus, some folks have vague, pseudo-scientific objections to “radiation” that they associate with wireless pods. Biz Sherbert, a cultural specialist at youth culture-focused creative agency the Digital Fairy, narrated a TikTok video on corded headphones. 
“It seems that people are very concerned about the potential Bluetooth radiation that comes from AirPods,” she concluded based on the video’s comments. (While Bluetooth headphones do emit non-ionizing radiation, the Food and Drug Administration currently deems it to be harmless to humans.)

China And India Opened The Door: Coal Is Back On The Table As A Transitional Fuel -- Sunday, November 14, 2021


November 19, 2021: coal really is the transitional fuel. And "we haven't even seen any true EV penetration yet. LOL. From social media

Later, 6:46 p.m. CT: I continue to doubt that President Biden is in charge of much of anything in his White House. This suggests there are two huge factions: one faction is very, very ideological and will do everything -- no matter how painful to the American public -- to kill "US oil." The other faction is reality-focused and very,  very concerned that the mid-terms could be devastating. Link to Irina Slav

Later, 6:12 p.m. CT: COP26 is hardly over and as noted, "coal is back on the table as a transitional fuel." From twitter:

COP26: Pretty funny. China and India opened the door. Coal is back on the table as a transitional fuel. LOL. And to think John Kerry signed off on it and said it was "a great agreement."

  • this is really amazing when you think about it:
    • 85 cars in Brandon's motorcade
    • 200 private jets
    • '2 weeks of meeting that could have been held on Zoom; and, for all of that,
    • coal is back on the table; didn't even get to natural gas or crude oil.

Coal in the US, Brandon's own agency, link here: the EIA estimates that the US will use almost twenty percent more coal to generate electricity in 2021 than it did in 2020 ... and this is before EVs make any significant inroads.

Another pipeline at risk:

  • Brandon: "I'll show them who's boss. Shut down Line 5."
  • FERC: "Here, hold my beer."
    • FERC could wreak havoc in Missouri if it shuts down the STL Pipeline. Link here
    • I have no dog in this fight. 
    • The Dems now control FERC, 3 - 2. 

Shortage? What shortage? OPEC sees huge surplus next year. Link here:

Streaming -- What's In Store -- Is This The Year? Netflix Still The One To Beat? November 14, 2021

Three observations from CNBC this week:

  • Disney, Hulu, ESPN: in trouble; may need to "consolidate";
  • "Comcast" in the catbird seat;
  • millennials prefer YouTube streaming -- YouTube Channel

ATT to create a new streaming company. From

There are two major events on the horizon for AT&T shareholders. 

First, the company will create a new company called Warner Bros. Discovery through a merger between its WarnerMedia subsidiary and Discovery Inc. ATT will then spin off 71% of those shares to AT&T shareholders. This will have a major positive effect on T stock.

Second, AT&T’s DirectTV unit has been carved out to a private equity firm. 

Who owns CNN: it is owned by CNN Worldwide, a unit of the WarnerMedia News & Sports division of AT&T's WarnerMedia.

And now this: David Zaslav is the new sheriff in town. Will go back to the future, by making CNN a 100% news channel again, possibly keeping "documentaries," a huge money-maker. But that could mean Don Lemon moves to fill the vacancy left by Rachel Maddow or Brian Williams.

The real winner? Netflix. See this post.

Streaming wars are tracked here.

I Didn't Care For Her The First Time Around

Link here to Forbes and Taylor Swift.

  • Taylor Swift: "#1 again."
  • Paul McCartney - Ringo Starr - Weeknd - Willie Nelson -- super band, re-recording the Beatles catalogue: "here, hold my weed. "

We're Not In Kansas Any More

Tainted Love, Broken Peach

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- November 14, 2021

The wells:

  • 36231, conf, Enerplus, Argillite 147-93-08D-95H, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 86K 9/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 37658, conf, CLR, Harrisburg 5-27H, Indian Hill, no production data, 
  • 38082, conf, Ovintiv, Rolla 152-97-1-12-5HLW, Westberg, no production data, 
  • 36229, conf, Enerplus, Slate 147-93-08D-05H-TF, Mocasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 105K 9/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 35484, conf, Oasis, Nikolia Federal 5397 42-33 4B, Banks, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 123K 9/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 37659, conf, CLR, Harrisburg 4-27H, Indian Hill, no production data, 
  • 36895, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-7HU, Sanish, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 54K 9/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 36226, conf, Enerplus, Mylonite 147-93-08D-05H-TF, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 74K 9/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 37660, conf, CLR, Harrisburg 3-27H, Indian Hill, no production data, 
  • 37083, conf, Whiting, S-Bar 11-7HU, Sanish, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 62K 9/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 36225, conf, Enerplus, Horfels 147-93-08D-05H, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 36K 9/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 37366, conf, Enerplus, Amphibolite, 147-93-08D-05H, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 71K 9/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 37661, conf, CLR, Harrisburg 2-27HSL, Indian Hill, no production data, 
  • 37383, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-12D-1-2H, East Tioga; no production data;
  • 36073, conf, Enerplus, Scoria 147-93-09C-04H-LL,Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 110K 9/21:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- November 14, 2021

Monday, November 22, 2021: 32 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 286 for the year:
36231, conf, Enerplus, Argillite 147-93-08D-95H,

Sunday, November 21, 2021: 31 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 285 for the year:
37658, conf, CLR, Harrisburg 5-27H,

Saturday, November 20, 2021: 30 for the month, 33 for the quarter, 284 for the year:
38082, conf, Ovintiv, Rolla 152-97-1-12-5HLW,
36229, conf, Enerplus, Slate 147-93-08D-05H-TF,
35484, conf, Oasis, Nikolia Federal 5397 42-33 4B,

Friday, November 19, 2021: 27 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 281 for the year:
37659, conf, CLR, Harrisburg 4-27H,
36895, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-7HU,

Thursday, November 18, 2021: 25 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 279 for the year:
36226, conf, Enerplus, Mylonite 147-93-08D-05H-TF,

Wednesday, November 17, 2021: 24 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 278 for the year:

Tuesday, November 16, 2021: 24 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 278 for the year:
37660, conf, CLR, Harrisburg 3-27H,
37083, conf, Whiting, S-Bar 11-7HU,
36225, conf, Enerplus, Horfels 147-93-08D-05H,

Monday, November 15, 2021: 21 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 275 for the year:
37366, conf, Enerplus, Amphibolite, 147-93-08D-05H,

Sunday, November 14, 2021: 20 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 274 for the year:
37661, conf, CLR, Harrisburg 2-27HSL,

Saturday, November 13, 2021: 19 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 273 for the year:
37383, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-12D-1-2H,
36073, conf, Enerplus, Scoria 147-93-09C-04H-LL,

A Twofer: Metric Of The Day --- AND -- Video Of The Year -- November 14, 2021

Quick: name the company that generates the most income from the internet as defined by a writer at another site. I'll post the answer later.

See poll. 

Quick: name the state. Video here.

Asking For A Friend: Who's In Charge? Covid-19 -- FWIW -- November 14, 2021

It seems we're ready for the US Supreme Court to get involved again. If not, Chief Justice Roberts is at risk of losing control.

On three occasions the US Supreme Court has backed Brandon's vaccine mandate but has not made the "final call." Link here.

Now we have a Federal appeals court that halts Brandon's mandate. Behind a paywall at The Washington Post

Herd Immunity


While cases have been fairly high since the summer, from around the time of the European football championships and the lifting of restrictions on July 19th, the UK has not seen the exponential rise that could overwhelm the health service that many have warned about for months. 
Furthermore, evidence from the ONS suggests over 90% of adults have antibodies, whilst 80% of the 12+ population have had two vaccine doses now.

Influenza Surveillance

Link here

Unless one is colorblind:

For The Archives -- Global Warming -- Coal: The New Transitional Fuel -- John Kerry -- November 14, 2021

The UN Climate Conference, 2021, COP26: the takeaway -- China and India opened the door -- coal is back on the table as a transitional fuel.

  • this was actually a step back from the Paris Protocol or whatever the last major summit was called. two 30-second elevator observations:
    • this was a complete failure -- because it did not advance the Paris Protocol. Regardless of what the UN might say, it was China and India that carried the day -- and they carried the day with commitment to continue using coal, like "forever."
    • there was much more emphasis on the CEOs of Fortune 500 companies being there. They understand the importance of virtue signaling. Every corporate presentation now includes an "ESG slide" and "COP26" needs to be on that slide.
  • from now on, every country will go its own way, with reality leading the way;
  • it raises questions on the future of such conferences. These events are becoming bigger than the Summer Olympics and generating a whole lot less in excitement. How do you spell "ho-hum"?

That first line, "... or whatever the last major summit was called." Quick review, courtesy of wiki.

  • COP: conference of the parties
  • Framework Convention, 1992
  • Berlin, 1995: first UN Climate Change Conference
  • Kyoto Protocol, 1997: to establish legally binding obligations for developed countries (China, India, given a pass)
  • Kyoto Protocol conferences: annually beginning in 2005
  • Durban Amendment, 2011: supposed to result in a binding treaty; to be defined by 2015; become effective in 2020
  • Prelude to Paris Agreement: annually from 2011 to 2015
  • Paris Agreement, 2015: Kyoto Protocol "passed"; international treaty; legally binding (LOL)
  • COP 26: first UN Climate Conference to actually be advertised as a "COPXX" just like "SuperBowl XX." Twenty-sixth COP, but the third meeting of the parties of the Paris Agreement ; US formally (and legally withdrew on November 4, 2020; President Biden "signs the instrument to bring the US back into the Paris Agreement; treaties require 2/3rd majority of US Senate; vote has not taken place
  • COP 27: to be held in Egypt, 2022
  • COP 28: to be held in UAE

It appears COP26 will be seen as the high tide.

Items for further discussion:

  • we have only ten years to act -- 1994, and every year after that
  • Greta has moved on: it appears Greta has moved on to global issue du jour
    • this year: Covid vaccine equity
    • next year: "Taylor Swift licensing" protocols
    • coming: a Tesla in every garage
  • China and India: set unobtainable goals for 2060
  • 2.5°C vs 1.5°C
  • new sheriff in town: President Xi
  • zero dollars for all those sinking islands
  • it was all about sinking islands; why did that meme "go away"?

Finally, note:

  • these UN conferences are still numbered by COP -- so this was COP26. The longer this goes on, the less urgency is obvious. COP28 is still planned for UAE in 2023
  • in an attempt to return to some sense of urgency, the conferences will eventually morph into PPA (parties of the Paris Agreement); COP26 was held in conjunction with PPA3
  • PPA5 will likely be the "lead-off" meeting. It is still unknown when / if PPAs will become annual events. Tea leaves: PPA4 in 2025 and every every five years after that, although if the billionaires want to party sooner, we could see these events on an annual basis starting next year;


John Kerry.

Touts "good" climate deal ... after China, India announce they won't be giving up coal any time soon. 

I just can't imagine spending the best (and last) years of one's life doing something so meaningless. Speaking of which, where is his yacht moored this year, Connecticut or Rhode Island?