Apple's "Ted Lasso" Gets The Emmy For Best Actor For Comedy Series -- September 12, 2022

Now, back to the football game.

And, then the market in the a.m. Heat map.

24/7.

Content, content, content.

XTO Reporting A Couple Of Krieger DUCs -- September 12, 2022

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $88.15.

Natural gas: $8.420.

No new oil/gas permits.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36092, 2,122, XTO, Krieger 42X-17H, Alkali Creek, t--; cum 62K 7/22;
• 36094, n/d, XTO, Kreigr 42X-17G, Alkali Creek, t--; cum --:

************************
Nice Well

Krieger wells are tracked here. Reported today:

• 36092, 2,122, XTO, Krieger 42X-17H, Alkali Creek, t--; cum 62K 7/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	51488	51841	44254	85420	74531	10781
BAKKEN	6-2022	8	10222	9125	8258	15171	13683	1419
BAKKEN	5-2022	3	56	0	2500	475	0	475

Off The Net -- Away From Keyboard -- Laser-Focused On Dividends -- COP -- September 12, 2022

Watching the re-airing of the Georgia Southern - Nebraska upset. 

I'm disappointed I haven't found the re-airing of the NASCAR race yesterday. 

**************************
Back to the Market

COP: link here.

• market cap: $146 billion
• p/e: 9.44 (thank you, ESG)
• yield: 1.71% (doesn't tell the whole story)

Dividend calendar: link here.

Putin -- Update -- September 12, 2022

Question: is the market anticipating end of hostilities in Ukraine?

Clearly:

• Russia over-extended herself;
• Russia literally ran out of munitions;
• if the Pentagon is concerned about munitions in pipeline, imagine Russia
  
• Russia literally ran into US intelligence
• Ukraine successfully exploited Russia's tactical centers of gravity: railroad junctions.
• Ukraine cut off the snake's head when the rails were cut
  
• Russian army probably ran out of food;
• so many casualties, complete loss of morale;
• complete loss of faith in battlefield leadership;
• tactical nuclear threat real
• Putin is no longer in charge of his generals
• turn this around: think if US under Trump had this loss to Iran -- would Pentagon take the blame?
• would Pentagon allow Trump to go nuclear?
  

Latest, 2:45 p.m. CT, Monday, September 12, 2022, link here. At the link, "the Ukrainians strike back."

Latest, 12:07 p.m. CT, Monday, September 12, 2022, link here. At the link, scroll down thee whole thread:

And, link here:

From Bloomberg today:

The rout of Russia’s army in northeast Ukraine over the past few days has many hoping momentum has shifted decisively away from Moscow.

In the energy war, Vladimir Putin’s brigades actually look in better shape. Europe is paying many times more than normal for gas supplies, putting its currency on the skids and the economy on the verge of recession.

But look beyond this winter and it’s possible to see how Putin’s energy weapon will backfire.

It’s easy to forget now, but the biggest beneficiaries of the oil embargoes of the 1970s weren’t Riyadh or Tehran. Oil production from Middle Eastern countries fell by about 4.6 million daily barrels between 1972 and 1982. Ironically, Moscow was the biggest winner: Soviet production rose by 4.3 million barrels.

By cutting off almost all gas supply to Europe, Putin all but guarantees a similar outcome to the Gulf five decades ago — losing market share to alternative suppliers and new energy sources.

The ways Putin is squandering his energy dominance are the subject of a fascinating two-part interview between Georgetown University energy expert Thane Gustafson and my colleague Liam Denning.

In the longer run, commodity consumers always have the option of substitution, a fact that hydrocarbon states perennially underestimate in trying to extract leverage.

Moscow doesn’t just face rivals in the form of giant gas exporters from Qatar to the US — supplies that will flow even faster once new import terminals start opening — it’s also challenged by affordable alternatives.

Take hydrogen. The availability of Russia’s dirt-cheap pipeline gas was one reason why green hydrogen seemed unlikely to displace methane in Europe’s energy system — even at a targeted 1.80 euros ($1.82) per kilogram by 2030, or a bit less than 17 euros a megawatt-hour. Today, it’s been about 18 months since we’ve seen benchmark gas futures so cheap.

The Middle East paid for using energy as a weapon in the 1970s with punishing recessions in the early 1980s, followed by a multidecade struggle to regain the upper hand. Russia faces the eventual prospect of an even more resounding economic defeat.

Cataclysmic losses / outsized opportunities: link here.

Today: link here.

Putin and Xi are meeting. 

Earlier:

Link here.

Posted earlier:

Link here.

Okay, that was yesterday.

Now this:

What catches your eye?

Yeah, that was written in March, about one month into the invasion and already things were not going well.

If that was a serious question then, with all the supporting arguments, imagine how much more things have changed for the worse for Putin.

I think it's time for the EU (and the US) to lift all sanctions on Russia's selling and moving oil and natural gas but lift none of the other sanctions. Doing so would do two things:

• "save" Europe with regard to energy, inflation;
• exhaust Russia's SPR.

It would have no effect on the outcome of the war. Analogy: Reagan's Star Wars. As far as I remember, Reagan put in place no sanctions on Russia. He simply went head-to-head with Russia, and won.

Focus On Fracking -- September 11, 2022

Link here. Bottom line:

• SPR at another 37½ year low; 
• oil rigs at a 12 week low;
•  natural gas rigs at a 37 month high 

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending September 2nd showed that: 

• after a near record draw of oil from our SPR, 
• an increase in our oil imports. a decrease in our oil exports, 
• a decrease in our oil refining, and 
• a decrease in​ those​ oil supplies that could not be accounted for, 
• we had oil left to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for the  first time time in four weeks, and for the 17th time in the past 41 weeks

Sophia And I Are Going Out For Sushi Tonight After This Trifecta -- September 12, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

India's Century? September 12, 2022

India: link here. 

India: link to The Guardian.

India:

The Apple Page -- September 12, 2022

Lead story over at Yahoo!Finance this morning, link here:

September historically isn't a good month for the broader stock market, but it could be a good month for arguably its most important stock: Apple.

Demand for Apple's latest suite of iPhones and the pricey new $800 Apple Watch Ultra appear to look strong.

Apple launched the iPhone 14 Series on September 7, 2022. It was available for preorder on September 9, 2022, with delivery-at-home/in-store pick-up starting on September 16, 2022. The new Airpods Pro and Apple Watch Ultra are currently available for pre-order and begin rolling out on September 23, 2022.

Apple stock is up about 2% since revealing the new products.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Buffett -- OXY -- Update -- September 12, 2022

Buffett -- OXY tracked here.

Occidental Petroleum shares jumped higher Monday after billionaire investor Warren Buffett added to both his stake in the oil major and speculation that he may be preparing to buy at least half of its outstanding stock. 

Buffett boosted his holding in Occidental, which he has been adding to for most of the year, to 26.8%, according to Securities & Exchange Commission filings from late last week, after buying an additional 51.99 million shares. The move came shortly after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) said in late August that Berkshire Hathaway's additional investment in Occidental was "consistent with the public interest", giving Buffett the nod to purchase "up to 50%" of the oil major's common shares.

September 11, 2022: IBD repeats the story. Link here. 

Berkshire Hathaway now owns 26.8% of Occidental Petroleum, according to a regulatory filing Friday night, September 9, 2022. 

That came exactly one month after Warren Buffett's firm disclosed its OXY stock stake had reached 20.2%. Crossing the 20% ownership level means Berkshire Hathaway can record Occidental earnings on its books.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has given Berkshire Hathaway permission to buy up to 50% of Occidental Petroleum. That's according to an order made public on August 19, 2022. Berkshire made the request on July 11, 2022.

Original Post 

Link here.

There is some question whether this article is "exactly" accurate. It depends on the definition of "stake" -- actual or potential -- "actual ownership" or "actual ownership plus warrants."

See this thread to see where disagreement exists.

Putin -- Update -- September 12, 2022

Clearly:

• Russia over-extended herself;
• Russia literally ran out of munitions;
• if the Pentagon is concerned about munitions in pipeline, imagine Russia
  
• Russia literally ran into US intelligence
• Ukraine successfully exploited Russia's tactical centers of gravity: railroad junctions.
• Ukraine cut off the snake's head when the rails were cut
  
• Russian army probably ran out of food;
• so many casualties, complete loss of morale;
• complete loss of faith in battlefield leadership;
• tactical nuclear threat real
• Putin is no longer in charge of his generals
• turn this around: think if US under Trump had this loss to Iran -- would Pentagon take the blame?
• would Pentagon allow Trump to go nuclear?
  

Latest, 2:45 p.m. CT, Monday, September 12, 2022, link here. At the link, "the Ukrainians strike back."

Latest, 12:07 p.m. CT, Monday, September 12, 2022, link here. At the link, scroll down thee whole thread:

And, link here:

From Bloomberg today:

The rout of Russia’s army in northeast Ukraine over the past few days has many hoping momentum has shifted decisively away from Moscow.

In the energy war, Vladimir Putin’s brigades actually look in better shape. Europe is paying many times more than normal for gas supplies, putting its currency on the skids and the economy on the verge of recession.

But look beyond this winter and it’s possible to see how Putin’s energy weapon will backfire.

It’s easy to forget now, but the biggest beneficiaries of the oil embargoes of the 1970s weren’t Riyadh or Tehran. Oil production from Middle Eastern countries fell by about 4.6 million daily barrels between 1972 and 1982. Ironically, Moscow was the biggest winner: Soviet production rose by 4.3 million barrels.

By cutting off almost all gas supply to Europe, Putin all but guarantees a similar outcome to the Gulf five decades ago — losing market share to alternative suppliers and new energy sources.

The ways Putin is squandering his energy dominance are the subject of a fascinating two-part interview between Georgetown University energy expert Thane Gustafson and my colleague Liam Denning.

In the longer run, commodity consumers always have the option of substitution, a fact that hydrocarbon states perennially underestimate in trying to extract leverage.

Moscow doesn’t just face rivals in the form of giant gas exporters from Qatar to the US — supplies that will flow even faster once new import terminals start opening — it’s also challenged by affordable alternatives.

Take hydrogen. The availability of Russia’s dirt-cheap pipeline gas was one reason why green hydrogen seemed unlikely to displace methane in Europe’s energy system — even at a targeted 1.80 euros ($1.82) per kilogram by 2030, or a bit less than 17 euros a megawatt-hour. Today, it’s been about 18 months since we’ve seen benchmark gas futures so cheap.

The Middle East paid for using energy as a weapon in the 1970s with punishing recessions in the early 1980s, followed by a multidecade struggle to regain the upper hand. Russia faces the eventual prospect of an even more resounding economic defeat.

Cataclysmic losses / outsized opportunities: link here.

Today: link here.

Putin and Xi are meeting. 

Earlier:

Link here.

Posted earlier:

Link here.

Okay, that was yesterday.

Now this:

What catches your eye?

Yeah, that was written in March, about one month into the invasion and already things were not going well.

If that was a serious question then, with all the supporting arguments, imagine how much more things have changed for the worse for Putin.

I think it's time for the EU (and the US) to lift all sanctions on Russia's selling and moving oil and natural gas but lift none of the other sanctions. Doing so would do two things:

• "save" Europe with regard to energy, inflation;
• exhaust Russia's SPR.

It would have no effect on the outcome of the war. Analogy: Reagan's Star Wars. As far as I remember, Reagan put in place no sanctions on Russia. He simply went head-to-head with Russia, and won.

Six Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over The Weekend, Monday -- September 12, 2022

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 53.

WTI: $87.30.

Natural gas: $8.085.

Tuesday, September 13, 2022: 21 for the month, 71 for the quarter, 410 for the year

• 37694, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 2-1-17TFH,

Monday, September 12, 2022: 20 for the month, 70 for the quarter, 409 for the year

• 37828, conf, BR, Saddle Jerome 44-9 TFH-ULW, North Fork,
• 37367, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-3H, East Tioga,
• 29781, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 1TFH, Stockyard Creek,

Sunday, September 11, 2022: 17 for the month, 67 for the quarter, 406 for the year

• 37695, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 4-1-17MBH, North Fork,
• 37368, conf, Petro-Hunt, Estby 159-94-35C-26-3H, East Tioga,
• 35442, conf, Whiting, Lapica 34-23H, Alger, t--; cum 70K 7/22;

Saturday, September 10, 2022: 14 for the month, 64 for the quarter, 403 for the year

• 38007, conf, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2932H-5, Capa, 54K 7/22;
• 37369, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-2H, East Tioga, 

RBN Energy: big changes happening below the surface in US crude export markets. 

Massive shifts are occurring in the U.S. crude oil export market, but you wouldn’t know it from the steady-as-she-goes pace of activity. The volumes being loaded along the Gulf Coast have stayed within a relatively tight range — 2.5 MMb/d to 3.2 MMb/d — for 12 consecutive quarters now, and the export pace for each of the past three quarters has remained within a few thousand barrels of 3 MMb/d. So, what’s changed? For one thing, Corpus Christi is now by far the dominant point of export, with Houston, Louisiana, and Beaumont/Nederland trailing. Another is that Europe, heavily impacted by the sharp decline in imports from Russia, is now the leading destination for U.S. barrels. There are other changes, too, including increased use of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) and terminal expansion projects. 

This Is All Most Of Us Would Need To Have A Great Day -- September 12, 2022

Link here.

Pure genius.

Devon: Fantasyland? September 12, 2022

Dividend: this has to be an error. This website is known to make errors. I cannot find anything to corroborate this. Everything suggests Devon's 2Q22 dividend -- regular + variable of $1.55-- was declared August 1, with a record date of 9/12/22 and a pay date of 9/30/22. 

Again, this has to be in error:

Fantasyland: a SeekingAlpha contributor suggests a business case for Devon and EOG merging. Archived. For me to consider a writer credible, I need to know name, background, history, and webpage. Perhaps this writer has posted that information but I did not see it. See this post also. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.