Saturday, February 10, 2018

Week 6: February 4, 2018 -- February 10, 2018

The Bakken is back! North Dakota led the nation in real GDP growth as the oil and natural gas industry rebounded.

Vern Whitten saw that -- he sent a portfolio of "before and after" photos of six years of the Bakken.

But perhaps the best Bakken story of the week was buried in the Oasis, January, 2017, presentation:
The best non-Bakken story all week: faux environmentalists starting to walk back AGW.

Other non-energy story:
Among energy stories this past week, this might have been one of the least-reported among the big stories:
Other general energy story:
MDU transports a record volume of natural gas; up almost 10% year-over-year
Tight oil wells showing massive improvement -- an industry-wide phenomenon
Random update of an XTO wildcat; what a difference a work over makes
MRO's oil type curves best in North Dakota (beats those in the Permian)

ND refineries updated

How big was the Bakken revolution? Pretty big

Movie Night

The Bakken Is Dead! Remember All Those Stories Back In 2017? Now This: Oil Retakes Top Spot In State GDP As Bakken Economy Rebounds -- DAWA -- February 10, 2018 -- Never Saw This Headline In Mainstream Media -- North Dakota Led The Nation In Real GDP Growth

From Dawasg:

If I were in the mood, I would link all those stories from 2017 suggesting the end of the Bakken, starting with Art Berman's article, and posting the Atlantic Monthly story, but I'm not in the mood. Maybe later.

As I wrote that, this song flashed in front of me:

But I digress. Look at this from DAWA Solutions Group. DAWA has an office right down the street from where my father's agency was. From the linked article:
Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the third quarter 2017 state GDP numbers.
North Dakota state GDP has grown from a recent low of $53 billion in the first quarter of 2016 to $55.6 billion in the third quarter of 2017.
North Dakota led the nation in real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2017 with an 8.3% increase from $54.1b to $55.2 billion. [I'm wondering if they didn't mean the second quarter 2017? See this link. See graphic below.]
A deeper dive into state GDP by industry shows that mining, including the oil and gas industry, attributed for the lion’s share of growth since the beginning of 2016. Mining grew from $4.4 billion  in the first quarter of 2016, to $7.5 billion in the third quarter of 2017, a 75.5% increase in less than two years and once again leads the state.
The graphic:

The graphic:

Notes To The Granddaughters

Our oldest granddaughter has recently taken up an interest in poetry. I went through that phase not too many years ago, mostly through Sylvia Plath, but many others.

I was looking for one of my "understanding poetry" books here in the house but was unable to find it. Most likely it is packed away and, unfortunately, I did not inventory it apparently.

Be that as it may.

I went to Amazon to see if I could fine the book I'm looking for. This book, in the screenshot below, is not the book I was looking for but the book intrigued me enough to consider buying it.

Link here.

Buy new: $99.95. I about fell off the couch. A hundred dollars for a paperback book. Certainly I could do better if I bought a used copy. Look at these prices -- again, remember -- these are used copies and I did not see any in "excellent" condition.

Two screenshots. In case you miss it, look at the price of this used paperback at the bottom of the second screen shot:

Now, I'm really intrigued by this book. But I will buy a used copy for less than $5.00 with a $3.95 shipping charge.

Note, that the shipper from New Jersey selling a copy for $9,999.00 won't even give you a break on shipping. LOL.

MDU Transported A Record Volume Of Natural Gas -- Up Almost 10% Year-Over-Year -- Will Increase Again In 2018 -- February 10, 2018

The link at NaturalGasIntel.
MDU Resources Group Inc.’s is planning to bring online later this year a 21-mile, 12-inch diameter natural gas pipeline to serve a manufacturing facility in Gwinner, ND, and other nearby potential customers, CEO Dave Goodin said during a fourth quarter conference call.

The new pipeline comes as Bismarck, ND-based MDU transported a record volume of natural gas -- up 9.6% year/year -- through its system in 2017, partly because of completing two expansion projects that increased pipeline capacity by 62 Mcf/d.

The multi-state utility holding company expects to further boost its natural gas transportation capacity in 2018 to more than 1.8 Bcf/d after completing the 38-mile, 16-inch Valley Expansion project and the 13-mile, 24-inch Line Section 27 expansion project. Construction on both projects, which are headed up by MDU’s WBI Energy subsidiary, is expected to begin this spring.

“This business segment continues to seek additional growth projects to increase transportation capacity, including a continued focus on the Bakken, which is currently producing record volumes of natural gas,” Goodin said.
Much, much more at the link, including an update on their wind farm activity (FWIW).

The Up Jones Or The Dow(n) Jones? -- February 10, 2018 -- Weekend Note

The 100-year Dow(n) Jones Historical Market, link here.
There has been so much good economic news for the country this past week, it's impossible to keep up.

Some observations:
  • when was the last time we had a continuing budget resolution that would carry us forward for almost two full years? Good, bad, or indifferent, getting this out of the way, allows Congress to get on with other business, like the Senate confirming federal judges appointed by Trump
  • Bernie Sanders got everything he could possibly wish for in that CBR ... and he still voted "no"; Rachel and others need to go through this CBR and look at all the goodies Congress funded; a stimulus bill by another name
  • huge story: freight brokers see profits surge on shipping rush;
  • Amazon says it will take on UPS, FedEx

 Stock photo from The WSJ

From the linked story above, a couple of quotes, data points.

First this:
Utility holding company National Grid U.S. expects a non-cash tax credit of $2 billion in 2018 as a result of the lower tax rate, said Peggy Smyth, the company’s finance chief.
“It’s going to be returned to customers over a period of 20 to 30 years,” Ms. Smyth said. 
But then this:
National Grid’s New York customers will see first-year increases of only 1.7% for electric and 2.4% for gas rates, as opposed to the 13% and 14% originally proposed, said James Denn, a spokesman for the New York State Department of Public Service, the state’s utility regulator.
“It’s the right thing to do for our customers,” Ms. Smyth said. “We view that as a pass-through cost and to the extent that the tax rate is going down, we are going to build that into the new rates.”
It's the right thing to do for our customers. LOL.

Now if only the state would lift its ban on fracking.
Weekend Reading For The Beach

Other great stories to savor over the weekend -- scanning the weekend edition of The Wall Street Journal:
  • the Winter Olympics, figure skating, and Moulin Rouge: who would have guessed?
  • the Winter Olympics, downhill skiing, and Lindsey Vonn: who would have guessed?
  • the deadly flu no one saw coming: too focused on global warming? This is not as far fetched as one might think
  • another DOJ official steps down; this time the #3 -- she says she's taking her "dream job" -- working for Walmart -- that's only slightly better than #4 who will say he/she is stepping down to spend more time with his/her family; and, #5 who will say she/he is stepping down to teach ethics at Harvard (yes, I know, former FBI director already announced his professorship in ethics at William and Mary)
  • forget the 4% rule: rethinking common retirement beliefs
  • remember when Ray Dalio said you'd "feel pretty stupid" holding cash? How did that work out? Link here.
  • Saudi Prince sells Trump Place Apartment for $36 million; takes huge, huge loss 
  • Phil Jackson -- yes, that Phil Jackson-- sells co-op in NYC; $200,000 more than purchase price in 2014; $50,000 above asking price (not in The WSJ; from Mansion Global); two-bedroom; looks surprisingly conservative
  • Trivago is in the news: I did not know they were a Germany company; watching the Trivago ads on television (some weeks ago) -- something odd about the company, I felt; never felt comfortable with them; just a vibe, as they say; maybe my sixth sense was trying to reach me
  • the surprising good news about demographics and the stock market

Speaking of William and Mary, from
William & Mary is the second-oldest college in America. The original plans for W&M date back to 1618 — decades before Harvard — ....
On February 8, 1693, King William III and Queen Mary II of England signed the charter for a "perpetual College of Divinity, Philosophy, Languages, and other good Arts and Sciences" to be founded in the Virginia Colony. And William & Mary was born.
Comey will follow in a long line of distinguished William and Mary educators and supporters:
William & Mary has been called the Alma Mater of the Nation because of its close ties to America's founding fathers. A 17-year-old George Washington received his surveyor's license through W&M and would return as its first American chancellor. Thomas Jefferson received his undergraduate education here, as did presidents John Tyler and James Monroe.
More Miscellaneous

How big is big? Today the AP has this headline -- farthest photos ever taken, from nearly 4 billion miles away.
The NASA spacecraft that gave us close-ups of Pluto has set a record for the farthest photos ever taken.
In December — while 3.79 billion miles (6.12 billion kilometers) from Earth — the New Horizons spacecraft snapped a picture of a star cluster. The photo surpassed the "Pale Blue Dot" images of Earth taken in 1990 by NASA's Voyager 1.
The images for "Pale Blue Dot" — part of a composite — were taken 3.75 billion miles (6.06 billion kilometers) away. 
Some data points:
  • just now getting to the fringes of our solar system: the Kuiper Belt
  • flew past Pluto in 2015
  • will reach 2014 MU69 on January 1, 2019
  • the spacecraft was launched in 2006 -- and it's just now getting to the edge of the solar system ... after that empty space ... a lot like how New Yorkers picture fly-over country, I suppose
  • 2006: the North Dakota Bakken had not yet been "discovered"
Even More Trivial Items (For The Archives)

Nasdaq to relocate headquarters from downtown Manhattan to Times Square

Two Books For Today

The Scotch Irish: A Social History, James G. Leyburn, c. 1962
Calculus: a textbook, Hughes-Hallett Gleason, et al