Wow, Wow, Wow -- I Don't Know If Anyone's Paying Attention -- But We're Almost Back to $80-WTI -- Dashboards Posted -- May 13, 2024

Locator: 47147B.

$60 - $80 is the new trading range.

$60 - $80 is the new $40 - $60.  

Thinking out loud, rambling: if WTI (not Brent) were to trend toward $90 this summer, that would be quite interesting. A lot of folks would suggest that will not be helpful for the Biden administration and withdrawing more oil from the SPR becomes more problematic, and probably wouldn't do much for price of WTI and gasoline. But I'm surprise that we're trending toward $80 again.

Pricing, California: the headline is incredibly misleading.  Link here.

The "price you see" is NOT the price you will pay under this new law. It comes close, but the California politicians writing this law knew that there had to be one exception. Tipping is one exception but not the exception I'm thinking about. That one exception I noticed is in the fine print and it not mentioned at all in the article, again, except for tipping. See if you can spot the omission. Link here. Again, the headline is technically correct, but in my mind, very misleading. Certainly the overall tone of the article is very, very misleading. With all the attention on restaurants, California must have some peculiar restaurant pricing. I would think car rentals, air transportation, hotel / motels, concert tickets would be the low-hanging fruit for this law. 

Legislation: more and more legislation appears to be laws to satisfy a single politician's personal pet peeve.

Silver lining in high restaurant prices: folks are finding how much money they can save by eating at home. 

Exhibit A: $7.00 at Starbucks for a coffee and a croissant was tolerable two years ago; now, coffee and a croissant, all of a sudden, at $8.50 is not tolerable. As if $1.50 on top of $7 for coffee / croissant is deal-breaker. Exhibit B: $7.95 for Big Mac meal two years ago was tolerable; folks balk at $8.50 for same meal. Oh, give me a break.

I assume most folks won't understand the point I'm trying to make -- those folks are generally referred to as cupcakes -- just as folks did not understand the point Apple was trying to make with its iPad commercial, May 7, 2024, or the "5-7" commercial as it's now called, comparing it to "9-11," I guess.

************************
Hubbert's Peak Oil Theory

Link here.  If it's by Charles Kennedy, you know it's good.

I thought peak oil happened ten years ago. 

Glad to see wiki updated their page. Note the word "falsified."

Hubbert's theory, peak oil:

• sometime between 1965 and 1971 (Hubbert's paper, 1956) -- a 6-year range;
• now, sometime between 2025 and 2040; 15-year range.
• and that 15-year range is for "peak oil" -- not when oil demand will disappear.

From the linked Kennedy article: 

Other links:

• the EIA drilling productivity report;
• US field production.
• Reuters report for same story.

EIA Dashboards:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf

• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

ICYMI -- Price Of Gasoline, US -- 2005 -- 2023 — And It Is Going To Get A Lot Cheaper — March 14, 2023

Updates

Later, 2:28 p.m. CT: WTI settled at $71.33, down 5% today. Some say energy is a huge determinant of inflation. If so, the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank just made JPow’s job a lot easier. Headline earlier today: inflation y/y and m/m has moderated. WTI should bring inflation down further. Biggest beneficiaries: those who drive Deere equipment. Investing thoughts, anyone?

Later, 12:32 p.m. CT: by the way, upwards of 50% of US office workers are still working from home, saving even more in transportation costs.

Original Post

Gasoline, US, 2005 - 2023: no inflation. Thank you Mr Biden. Link here.

President of the United States, 2001 - 2009: George W. Bush.

In 2005, "mpg" average for light vehicle in the US: 13 mpg. Link here.

Most fuel efficient cars, 2023, link here. Honda Civic clocking in at 31/39/35. CAFE standards mandated by US Congress, first enacted in 1975. US president inn 1975: Gerald Ford, His start in politics: just a few miles westsouthwest of Detroit.

For the archives -- me personally:

• driving a third or less as many miles now as I did in 2005;
• in 2005, we lived on the northeast side of San Antonio, TX (Henderson Pass area), and commuted daily to Lackland AFB, TX, on the far southwest side of San Antonio (google maps: 60 miles daily, round trip)
• I now drive about 60 miles every two weeks
• and, oh, by the way, my rent today is the same as my rent in 2005
• and no children in college
  
• getting 3x better mileage: from 12 mpg (2005) to 36 mpg (2023)
  
• paying about the same amount for gasoline.

GDP Forecast Keeps Rising -- February 28, 2023

Link here. 

The "inflation" meme? It gets tedious.

• CNBC this morning: high transsporation costs
• regular gasoline here in north Texas today -- $2.58. 

***********************
Historical Inflation Rates, 1914 - 2023

Link here.

 

This was pretty much the majority of that part of my adult life in which I was earning a living and raising a family, for me, 1977 - 2007. Pay particular attention to 1973 to  1976, and then again, 1977 - 1982. The year 1977 was relatively good compared to what came before and what came after:

 

Now, on a fixed income:

 

And for those who prefer the alternative, 1929:

*****************************
Global Inflation

That WTI-Brent Price Reversal -- May 19, 2022

Link to Alex Kimani:

To be fair, the price of WTI should be higher than that of Brent, considering its sweeter and lighter quality. After all, WTI has an API gravity of 39.6 degrees and a sulfur content of 0.24%, while Brent has an API gravity of around 38 degrees and a sulfur content of somewhere around 0.40%. The lower the density, the easier it is for it to be refined into gasoline or diesel fuel. Conversely, the higher the density, or "heavier," the oil is, the harder it is to refine. 

However, since 2013, Brent has been the more expensive crude blend thanks to its status as the global oil benchmark and a better indicator of global oil prices. That is the case because Brent essentially draws its oil from more than a dozen oil fields located in the North Sea, while WTI is sourced from U.S. oil fields, including the pivotal Cushing Oil Field. 

According to ICE Futures, ~60% of the world's traded oil is priced off of Brent. But the crude hierarchy was upset for a brief moment a few days ago after WTI stole Brent's crown as the more expensive oil. 

On Tuesday, WTI price crossed Brent to trade at $115.4/bbl vs. 115.2/bbl, an anomaly that the experts are saying is an indication of how the market has been scrambled by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine ahead of the busy summer driving season.

The WTI-Brent spread is tracked here. 

See comments:

Now I remember what this is about, there was excitement about it happening a couple months ago, too... 

... Brent oil contracts roll off the board almost a full month before WTI contracts, which means price quotes on news sites are quoting prices for different months for the two benchmarks... 

... in this week's case, they'd have been seeing Brent prices for July and WTI prices for June...but the backwardation is insane; next month's prices have been running ~$3 lower for both.... 

... if they'd compare similar contracts, i.e., July to July, they'd find the Brent price is still higher...

Later:

WTI for June delivery rose $1.02 to settle at $113.23 a barrel in New York.
WTI for July, which has greater volume and open interest, rose 39 cents to settle at $110.28.
Brent for July rose 51 cents to settle at $112.55 a barrel.

$114 Oil? Simon Watkins Sees Oil Crashing Back To $65 / Bbl If EU Ban On Russian Oil Fails -- May 16, 2022

Link to Simon Watkins.

The concluding paragraph:

All of this rhetorical flim-flam by Germany and the E.U. has resulted in an oil price that remains way above where it should be, given the confluence of multiple bearish factors currently at play. 

• On the supply side there remain:
• definite pledges from the U.S. Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholm, to engineer a “significant increase” in domestic energy supply by the end of the year, 
• with the U.S. also working to identify at least three million bpd of new global oil supply. 
• There remains the prospect of further strategic petroleum releases as and when required both from the U.S. and from member countries of the IEA, and 
• of a new ‘nuclear deal’ with Iran as the U.S. is still open to the idea. 
• Additionally, the U.S.’s ability to pressure OPEC into increasing production has been increased by its resuscitating the threat of the ‘NOPEC’ Bill. 

• On the demand side, there remains:
• further likely destruction from the COVID-related lockdowns across China, and
• no prospect of its ‘zero-COVID’ policy being meaningfully relaxed, and
• of a series of U.S. interest rate hikes stifling economic growth elsewhere.

It is apposite to note at this point that even without these bearish factors in play, Brent crude was trading at around US$65 pb before the real Russia-Ukraine war premium was kicked in by the smart money in September 2021 when U.S. intelligence officers started to notice highly unusual Russian military movements on the Ukraine border after the conclusion of the joint Russia-Belarus military exercises that had taken place.

$65 oil? One of two things?

• $65 oil will be the result of those "things" Mr Watkins brings up plus a historic recession and huge demand destruction driving oil back to $65; or,
• $65 will be based on more than enough oil being available, and the global economy will take off

Bottom line: fool's errand to predict the price of oil. 

North Dakota Light Sweet -- April 19, 2022

All things being equal, Bakken mom-and-pop mineral owners should see a nice jump in their royalty checks in the next month or so. Whoo-hoo! Congrats to those who benefit.

From today's Director's Cut:

Crude price, NDLS:

• today: $110.75
  
• January, 2022: $74.86
• February, 2022: $86.17
  
• December, 2021: $65.46

****************************
Fully Invested

About a month ago I tried really, really hard to diversify, but it killed me. LOL.

Now, back to buying energy. 

I did buy some TSM today.

Along with KMI for the dividend, and DVN, for obvious reasons. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Those managed funds, those hedge funds that refuse to invest in oil and gas ... wow ... my amateurish oiil and gas portfolio is outperforming every one of my managed funds.

Monday Morning Oil -- April 18, 2022

Monday morning, oil, natural gas:

• oil
• Brent: up 2.02%; up $2.26; trading at $114.00
• WTI: up 1.8%; up $1.94; trading at $108.90;
• prices are now back to where they were prior to Biden's announcement to release SPR
  
• natural gas: contango. $8+ in January, 2023; right now: $8.00; up 9.3%
  
• oil, gasoline: somewhat unvarying during the seasons, at least compared to natural gas;
• natural gas: quite seasonally variable
• and, so it goes
• crude oil, one major exception: very seasonal in Mideast

Saudi crude oil exports: previously posted in graphic form; now the article;
Saudi crude oil exports jump to highest level since April, 2020
reminder: global lock downs began March, 2020

• Saudi crude oil exports jumped to 7.307 million barrels per day in February.
• Saudi crude oil exports topped the 7-million-bpd mark for the first time since the start of the pandemic.
• JODI: Saudi crude oil and oil products closing stocks in February rose by 316,000 bpd to 235.8 million barrels.

********************************
Easter Sunday, 2022

Levi, Judah and their dad.

The Immediate Changes In Price Of Oil Following The Biden Surge Announcement -- April 4, 2022

The Biden Surge: tracked here.

The release was to begin as of April 1, 2022, a few days ago.Today is pretty much the first real trading day following the launch of the SPR release.

There were seven (?) possible outcomes after the announcement. This does not imply any "cause and effect," and no definitions are provided for "short term" and "long term."

• no effect on price of oil short term or long term -- very, very unlikely
• price comes down in the short term, no change long term -- possible, unlikely
• price comes down in the short term, goes up in the long term -- mostly likely scenario
• price comes down in the short term, goes down in the long term -- very unlikely
• price goes up in the short term; no change long term -- very unlikely
• price goes up in the short term; goes down in the long term -- very, very unlikely
• price goes up in the short term; goes up in the long term -- possibly, very unlikely
  

Politically, the worst outcome: goes up in the short term.

Going up in the short term would have seemed most unlikely.

Today in early morning trading:

• Brent: up 3.47%; up $3.62; trading at $108.00
• WTI: up 4.18%; up $4.08; trading at $103.30
• not only is WTI up (most unexpected) it is up more than Brent percentage-wise and dollar-wise 

I have said on the blog that an SPR release is generally bullish. Algorithms are written in such a way that an SPR release suggests a physical shortage of oil, which, all things being equal, would drive the price of oil higher. 

However, with regard to the Biden Surge, one would have thought it would be different this time because the release was done for reasons other than fundamental / technical reasons. 

So, we will see. The week has just started. 

Oil Surging -- This Time "It Feels Real" -- March 21, 2022

This time "it feels real."

Last week? A trial run.

It's finally sinking in:

• analysts now realize that even if the war ends today, the sanctions on Russia won't end overnight;
• possibly, if Putin pulled back after the first two or three weeks, there was a possibility that sanctions would gradually be "taken down"
• but now, with the stories coming out of Ukraine, no indication this will end any time soon, and war spreading ever closer to Poland, this time the surge in oil prices feels real;

But that's only part of the problem. The bigger issue:

• everyone coming around to "the myth of spare capacity"
• tipping point: Saudi Arabia says it's not responsible for what happens next;

******************************
Moving Day

"Focus On Fracking" -- Coming Up Next -- March 20, 2022

WTI:

• up over 3% now; 10:17 p.m. CT
• up $3.30 / bbl
• now at $108.00 / bbl
• it feels real this time

Gasoline in our neighborhood tonight:

• regular unleaded: $3.99 / gallon
• diesel: $4.89 / gallon

EVs: we've talked about this so many times, and have been talking about it for years, I have no sympathy. None whatsoever. 

*******************************
Good Night

I'm absolutely exhausted -- mentally. I can't do any more tonight.

I must have twenty-three more data points, articles that need to be linked, replies to readers, but I just can't do it. 

So, I'm going to sign off for the night. E-mail and comments will have to wait until tomorrow. Sorry.

But there is just too much happening. To see the price of oil rising like it is tonight is simply too much, overwhelming, too many story lines. I don't think folks in Washington (DC) know how to deal with this. 

If that's accurate -- that folks in Washington (DC) don't know to deal with this -- this is very, very scary.

The mainstream media is not helping. I think most egregious reporting / analysis this week was ABC News telling us that US Congress did not vote themselves a 21% pay raise in the middle of the night. In fact, they did, and I posted my reason a couple of days ago. Even The Bismarck Tribune tried to tell us that US Congress did not vote themselves a 21% pay raise this past week.

 It is amazing that Saudi Arabia won't take telephone calls from President Biden and that the UAE and Saudi Arabia would not meet with the US Secretary of State. Amazing. 

So, I'm beat. But I'll be back tomorrow. 

Meanwhile, watch for this week's edition of "Focus on Fracking" later tonight. Just to make sure folks know: I have nothing to do with "Focus on Fracking." It's posted by someone completely unrelated to my blog, but must have started blogging about the same time I did. He knows so much more about the oil sector than I do, and follows it much more closely than I do -- way more than I could ever do. His weekly notes are incredible, for all the detail.

Oil Is Surging Again -- March 20, 2022

Not ready for prime time. This is really poorly written; I am unable to articulate what I'm thinking. I couldn't do it under best of circumstances but I'm distracted by:

• March Madness
• NIT: granddaughter's college team -- Vanderbilt, #4 -- beat #1 Dayton in overtime and advances;
  
• granddaughter's soccer tournament in Phoenix this weekend;
• they lost this evening's game
• Olivia got a yellow card but coach was proud of her; she prevented a breakaway goal
  
• NASCAR;
• beautiful, beautiful weather
• I'm watching women's basketball: #1 Stanford is destroying #8 Kansas, absolutely destroying Kansas; with five minutes to play in regulation time, Stanford is winning 80 to 48;
• books I want to read;
• too many great movies to watch: the new MacBeth on Apple TV; the old Midnight in Paris on Hulu;
• this MacBeth is incredibly interesting;
• Joel Coen movie; Frances McDormand as Lady MacBeth; Denzel Washington as Macbeth.
  
• and all the blogging that needs to be done.

A week ago -- or whenever it was -- when WTI surged almost $10 overnight -- on a Sunday night -- it didn't feel real; it felt very, very surreal. I don't think anyone thought it was "good."

Tonight I see WTI is up almost 3%; up $3.15; and trading at $107.80. Likewise, Brent is up almost 3% and trading at $111.10.

But this time, it feels very, very real.  

Several immediate thoughts:

• the Ukraine-Russian war is not driving the price of oil, except for the sanctions; there is a distinction; I'm too tired to explain what I'm trying to say;
• "inflation" is not driving the price of oil at this point; again, I'm too tired to explain, expand; some folks get it; in the big scheme of things, the price of gasoline is "disconnected" from inflation, either the price of oil causing inflation or inflation driving the price of oil higher.
  
• the "myth" of spare capacity is not a myth
• if this is true, and I think it is, it is the greatest of ironies that just as "we" hit "peak production" in the Mideast, is the exact time that the current administration decided to cut production in the US, as did the Canadians (one word: pipelines)
  
• Saudi Arabia is not taking phone calls from Joe Biden; UAE and Saudi Arabia refused to meet with the US Secretary of State; mainstream media is missing the tectonic changes in the world order
• it seems that a lot of folks are still underestimating the global economy following the pandemic lock down;
• there's a lot of talk about "demand destruction" and a lot of talk about how the price of airline tickets will stymie travel. I don't think so. The high price of Disney theme parks seems not to be cutting down on park attendance. If there's enough money for Disney theme parks, there's more than enough money for gasoline and airline tickets. If a $500 plane ticket now costs $650, folks will find a way of saving $150 somewhere else, or saving less or investing less; it will be interesting to see which industries or sectors are hit hardest by inflation.

By Request, A Bearish Case For Oil -- From Analysts -- March 20, 2022

Open the link and follow the thread.

Side-By-Side -- Oil Futures -- Before -- After -- Biden Ban -- March 8, 2022

Look at the huge jump in April and May. Again, these are not the spot prices we will see in April and May, but rather what traders today are willing to pay for guaranteed delivery in April and May. I doubt they are looking to take a loss.

Due to my low-budget graphics department, the lines don't quite line up so by the bottom of the chart, "we're off" by one line. Deal with it.

If I had a subscription revenue stream, I might be able to afford a graphics artist. Futures.

Can Someone Fact-Check This -- This Can't Possibly Be Correct -- Or Can It? -- March 6, 2022

Updates

Later, 6:13 p.m. CT: I posted this at 1:42 p.m. CT earlier today -- now we know --

At 6:00 p.m. E.T. tonight, when the oil trading markets open, we will get an idea of how scary the US State Department message is.

Later, 5:27 p.m. CT: a reader just sent me an e-mail; fact-checked the original post. Provided another source. Says this is correct. 

I won't watch CNBC in the a.m. but clearly Joe Kernen will win any debate he might have with Andrew Ross Sorkin over energy tomorrow morning. And, just last week Jim Cramer said "oil is a perma-bear." That doesn't make sense, of course, but the "sentiment" is obvious. What a doofus. 

Of course, the big story last week was the huge position Warren Buffett had taken in OXY, following his other big build in CVX. 

Time to see if PXD CEO is correct when he said even $200-oil would not encourage US shale to drill.

Original Post 

Sunday markets have just opened.

Can someone fact-check this? Can this possibly be true?

The trading price, $122, doesn't seem to match the percent change, dollar change (5.7%; $6.58). 

Link here.

A minute later, 5:15 p.m. CT, Sunday night, March 6, 2022, but this screen shot taken aout 5:17 p.m. CT:

Best Thread Ever; Five DUCs Reported As Completed; No New Permits -- February 17, 2022

Best thread ever. Wow, it took them a long time to come around to what we've been saying for quite some time. Like the past ten years.

And from that thread, from Bloomberg, rigs don't matter (don't take that out of context):

And, more:

We've also said this for years, link here:

And that $72 for Saudi Arabia is low-balling it. Some years ago, it was $100. 

Link here.

************************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$91.76	2/17/2022	02/17/2021	02/17/2020	02/17/2019	02/17/2018
Active Rigs	33	15	56	64	56

No new permits.

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37242, 3,567, MRO, Denny 11-3TFH,
• 37156, 4,122, MRO, Lowry 44-9TFH,
• 38189, 1,102, CLR, Tallahassee FIU 8-21HSL,
• 38396, 1,330, CLR, Dvirnak 10-7HSL1,
• 38320, 995, CLR, Dvirnak 11-7H,

$300 Oil? January 18, 2022

Link here.

Prognostications -- January 13, 2022

Today: EIA forecasts crude oil prices will fall in 2022 and 2023. 

Yesterday:

For all that talk of $100-oil and shortage of oil this summer, I just don't see it. Most credible analysts suggest the price of oil is currently at its peak and will gradually drop back to the $70 - $80 range in the near term, and back to $70 - $75 in the longer term (2023).

Link to Irina Slav, by this summer, the US will producing almost 2 million bopd more than needed:

From the EIA:

From an earlier post: 

*****************************
Take On Me

Take On Me, A-Ha

Notes From All Over -- December 31, 2021

Updates

Later, 8:30 p.m. CT: wow, talk about a mismatched semifinal game, Alabama vs Cincinnati -- one could see where this game was headed before the first drive by Alabama was even completed. As for the second game, it appears one team failed to show up. The good news: most fans were able to spend more time with their families on New Year's Eve knowing the outcome of both games before the end of the first quarter.

Later, 6:52 p.m. CT: in the original note I mentioned that the largest Buc-ee's in the world was outside New Braunfels, TX. I mentioned that to my granddaughter. She replied, "not for long." World's largest Buc-ee's is under construction in Tennessee:

• construction began earlier this autumn (2021); to be completed in 2023;
• in Sevier County; exit 407, I-40, "gateway" for Great Smoky Mountains National Park; Kodak, TN
• 120 fueling positions (compared with 60 at the New Braunfels, TX, site
• 250-foot long car wash:
• 74,000-square-foot development;
• the first Buc-ee's in Tennessee was recently announced, located in Crossville, TN

What I find most interesting about this: the close relationship between Tennessee and Texas that began more than a hundred years ago continues today.

Original Note

Betty White: reportedly dies at 99. 

Vanguard: if you're having problems with accessing Vanguard, you are not the only one.  Bogle's website has been down off and on (mostly off) for the past six days.

XOM: it's going to be one of the bigger investing stories in 2022.

• whisper numbers here; let me know if one can find a company whose expected quarterly earnings will grow more than XOM's with their next report (year/year); for XOM: 5,733%.
• SEC filings suggest earnings will be better than Wall Street thinks; Barron's.
• reaps windfall with energy rally; Bloomberg;
• higher gasoline prices to boost profts by as much as $1.1 billion; MarketWatch.
• quarterly earnings per share, 2006 - 2021,  XOM; macrotrends. This could be one of XOM's best quarters in recent history;
• XOM to post fourth consecutive quarterly (increase) in profit; HartEnergy;
  

UNP: closed at a 52-week high, after raising dividend twice in one year. Closed just above $252.

Pelosi: I have no idea why folks are upset with news of her recent equity trading. Has she not provided us her crystal ball? You may not like Pelosi, but you might want to look at her picks. It's not as if she doesn't know what's happening. For the record, she invested in Google, Roblox, and Disney, hardly earth-shattering.

• Roblox: huge
  

Pelosi's home state: it's generally agreed that California could see $6-gasoline next year (2022).

Lutheran Social Services: declares bankruptcy. Won’t follow. 

Richest people in the world: nice video. Speaks volumes about the Bakken, but in a way most folks won't connect.

Buc-ee's New Braunfels, TX: the world's largest gas station.

TSLA: one of my predictions for 2022 -- China will present formidable challenges for Tesla. Today this: China will cut subsidy standard for new energy vehicles by 30% y/y in 2022; CN Wire. So, nine of ten predictions yet to follow.

Flaring: when I heard that AOC had departed NYC for a sunny vacation I assumed she was going to Iraq to check in on flaring; alas she went to maskless Florida. Iraq: flares more natural gas in ONE year than California produces in 3.5 years. California banned flaring in 1939.

• California imported almost 50 million bbls of crude oil from Iraq in 202
• California has increased its dependence on oil from Iraq by almost 70% since 2017 (almost 30 million bbls)

US equities: best sector in 2021? Energy. Up almost 50% in the past year.

Flashback: bringing down the bank in Williston, ND. Ultimate Googie architecture?

• opened, May 22, 1963, next door to my dad's business. 
• the story begins with the classic Patty Melt. The story is behind a paywall, but there appears a way around; will be archived;
• think The Jetsons
  
• demolished July 21, 2008 -- after 45 years
• more of the story, here;
  

DAO: new "buzzword" for 2021. 

First group "financial / economic" indicators:

• 10-Year Treasury: link here. 1.512% -- trending down.
  
• DXY: link here. 95.60 -- trending down.
  
• Silver: link  here. $23.31 -- trending up.
  
• CBOE volatility index: link here. 17.5, up slightly but remains at the lower end.
  

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$75.46	12/31/2021	12/31/2020	12/31/2019	12/31/2018	12/31/2017
Active Rigs	30	13	55	67	49

No wells coming off the confidential list today.

RBN Energy: the top ten RBN energy prognostications for 2021 -- scorecard. 

Finally! It’s the last day of 2021, which means it’s time for our annual Top 10 Energy Prognostications blog, the long-standing RBN tradition where we look into our crystal ball to see what the upcoming year has in store for energy markets. And unlike many forecasters, we also look into the rear-view mirror to see how we did with last year’s predictions. That’s right! We actually check our work! And that’s what we’ll do in today’s scorecard blog. Then on Monday we’ll lay out what we see as the most important developments of the year ahead. But today it’s time to look back.

$4.00 Gasoline And The Keystone XL -- December 29, 2021

It's pretty much a given that all credible analysts argue that unleaded, regular gasoline could average $4.00 / gallon next spring (2022). 

For those who understand the pricing of gasoline in this country, one can connect the dots back to 2005 when the Keystone XL was first publicly proposed. 

It's a complicated story, not easily explained to the American public.

But at the end of the day, all discussions about $4.00-gasoline circle back to the Keystone XL.

Let's Go Brandon -- Price Of Gasoline -- EIA -- December 14, 2021

Apparently for gasoline, that jump in price was "transitory." The price of gasoline is already falling. LOL.

Link here. 

*************************************
A Musical Interlude

I Get Around, The Beach Boys