The Immediate Changes In Price Of Oil Following The Biden Surge Announcement -- April 4, 2022

The Biden Surge: tracked here.

The release was to begin as of April 1, 2022, a few days ago.Today is pretty much the first real trading day following the launch of the SPR release.

There were seven (?) possible outcomes after the announcement. This does not imply any "cause and effect," and no definitions are provided for "short term" and "long term."

• no effect on price of oil short term or long term -- very, very unlikely
• price comes down in the short term, no change long term -- possible, unlikely
• price comes down in the short term, goes up in the long term -- mostly likely scenario
• price comes down in the short term, goes down in the long term -- very unlikely
• price goes up in the short term; no change long term -- very unlikely
• price goes up in the short term; goes down in the long term -- very, very unlikely
• price goes up in the short term; goes up in the long term -- possibly, very unlikely
  

Politically, the worst outcome: goes up in the short term.

Going up in the short term would have seemed most unlikely.

Today in early morning trading:

• Brent: up 3.47%; up $3.62; trading at $108.00
• WTI: up 4.18%; up $4.08; trading at $103.30
• not only is WTI up (most unexpected) it is up more than Brent percentage-wise and dollar-wise 

I have said on the blog that an SPR release is generally bullish. Algorithms are written in such a way that an SPR release suggests a physical shortage of oil, which, all things being equal, would drive the price of oil higher. 

However, with regard to the Biden Surge, one would have thought it would be different this time because the release was done for reasons other than fundamental / technical reasons. 

So, we will see. The week has just started.