The Boom Is Over; The Bakken Manufacturing Stage Will Last At Least Until 2100 -- April 23, 2025

Locator: 48496B.

A reader just sent me this link and asked for my thoughts.

Link: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-oil-output-peak-by-2027-eia-projects-2025-04-15/. 

Not-ready-for-prime time, my reply:

This is pretty funny.

The shale boom ended years ago. I talked about that on the blog.

The Bakken boom (the metonym for the shale revolution in the US) went to "the manufacturing stage" some years ago. If I can find the post, I will link it.

There's a huge difference between "a boom" and "a manufacturing phase."

In the boom, time was money. No one cared how much they spent; they just wanted to get the leases and the acres as fast as they could, before anyone beat them to it.

In "the manufacturing stage, it's just the opposite. Plenty of time; now it's all about how to spend one's money carefully and how to best manage the assets. Wells will be shut in; wells be brought back on line; wells will be choked back; wells will be re-worked -- all based on a lot of factors.

So, yeah, the boom is over, but the shale revolution continues, but now operators are managing their assets.

Here's one link: at least by 2016 Lynn Helms, et al, said we were in "the manufacturing stage in the Bakken:

https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2016/09/an-example-of-manufacturing-stage-inthe.html.

You may see this note on the blog. LOL.

I haven't read the article yet. I'll read it later. I'm surprised the EIA says we're still in a "shale boom." That train left the station ten years ago in the Bakken; maybe longer; and the same with the Permian. The Permian is in the manufacturing stage, also.

By the way, Phoenix Operating doesn't think the boom is over: LOL. They're paying upwards of $30,000 / acre for minerals under the river. Just posted moments ago.

Pretty soon we will be talking about "the Bakken bust."

The oil cycle is pretty easy to summarize: boom and bust.