Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Work In Progress -- PetroShale Wells In Croff Oil Field -- April 14, 2020

This is a work in progress. I became interested when I saw the huge jump in production for #17778, see below. Lots of activity in the area. This post yet to be completed. 

See these wells:
  • 21985; halo effect; t6/12; cum 526K 4/20;
  • 17778; huge halo effect; cum 272K 4/20;
See these wells, also, but not yet posted:
  • 18436; off line for past several months; now back on line; no halo effect; t3/10; cum 480K 4/20;
  • 36316, 35, Petroshale, Anderson North 1MBH, Croff, t9/19; cum 134K 4/20;
  • 36317, 584, Petroshale, Anderson North 1TFH, Croff, t10/19; cum 95K 4/20;
  • 36318, 392, Petroshale, Anderson North 2MBH, Croff, t10/19; cum 441K 4/20; just came back on line, 3/20;
  • 22377; went off line shortly before 10/19; has just come back on line; three days in 2/20; t7/12; cum 468K 4/20; came back on line 3/20;
  • 22520; went off line shortly before 10/19; back on line for two months; no evidence of halo effect; t12/12; cum 434K 4/20; came back on line 1/20;
And later,
  • 37073, conf,
  • 37074, conf,
  • 37075, conf,
  • 37076, conf,
  • 37077, conf
The graphic:

Completing The Discussion On That "Pop-Quiz" Earlier Today -- April 14, 2020

This completes the blog I started earlier -- link here to the "pop-quiz" from earlier today.

A reminder: the NDIC now reports natural gas statistics for each well: the amount of natural gas produced by the well; the amount sold, and the amount vented/flared.

In the "old days,"
  • MFC produced = MCF sold + vented/flared;
But now, more and more, in the Bakken:
  • MFC produced ≠ MCF sold + vented/flared
Where is the "missing MCF (natural gas)?

A reader provides this:
Since the DMR has added the "Flared" column in wells' production profiles, it is now possible to determine how much produced natgas is consumed or re-injected (for gas lift Artificial Lift) for each well/pad.

This is determined by starting with gross production, then subtracting amount sold, then subtracting amount flared.

The remaining balance - if any - should be the amount burned onsite to power compressors and/or generators with the rest being injected back downhole for the now near-ubiquitous (in the Bakken, soon, everywhere) gas lift approach in the Artificial Lift phase.
(There are at least 3 main subsets to this, but I am still trying to gather information).

Bottom line, using the two Lime Rock wells from today - #24511 and #-33634 - one finds: ~500 M cubic feet/month consumed for the former, with ~ 800 M cubic feet/month for the latter.

(I started tracking this months ago with the 500,000 cubic feet per month per well being about average).

Using a VERY generous 'retail' price of $2/mmbtu - essentially $2.00 for every thousand feet of natgas - these operators are 'paying' (to themselves, no less) between $1,000 and $1,600 per MONTH for the use of this natgas.
In reality, these operators - Lime Rock, in this example - are getting FREE fuel for their equipment and re-injection purposes. Equipment seems mainly to consist of the aforementioned compressors and generators.

Very little info seems to be in the public domain in these matters.
Absolutely fascinating. 

US Crude Oil In Storage -- April 14, 2020

US crude oil storage: I have no idea how accurate this graphic is but if accurate, it's very helpful.

Days US supply: link here. This data will be updated by the EIA on April 15, 2020, tomorrow.

The EIA weekly petroleum report will be released tomorrow, April 15, 2020. Link here.

These graphics are a week old; the new data will be posted tomorrow.

So, we wait until 9:30 a.m. CT tomorrow. 

The Enerplus "Geo Features" Pad

The wells:
  • 37513, PNC, Enerplus, Oxbow 152-94-16BH-21H-TF, Antelope,
  • 37514, PNC, Enerplus, Plateau 152-94-16BH-21H, Antelope,
  • 33461, 840, Enerplus, Mesa 152-94-16A-21H, Three Forks, 30 stages; 2.3 million lbs; Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 209K 9/20; permitted for middle Bakken, but changed to Three Forks first bench, July 1, 2020; cum 224K 7/21;
  • 33460, 1,687, Enerplus, Gully 152-94-16A-21H-TF1, 39 stages, 9.4 million lbs, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 335K 9/20; cum 358K 7/21; cum 358K 7/21;
  • 33459, 1,192, Enerplus, Canyon 152-94-16A-21H-TF2, 39 stages, 9.5 million lbs; Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 365K 9/20; permitted for Three Forks B2, but sundry form dated July 1, 2017, target change to middle Bakken "D." Cum 420K 7/21;
  • 33458, 1,115, Enerplus, Ravine 152-94-16A-21H, 39 stages; 8.2 million lbs; Antelope-Sanish, t11/17; cum 376K 9/20; cum 414K 7/21;
The graphics:

WTI Barely Holds Above $20; Enerplus Adds Two "Geo Features" Play Wells -- April 14, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3463615130

Three new permits, #37513 - #37515, inclusive --
  • Operators: Enerplus (2); MRO
  • Field: Antelope (McKenzie); Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has a Pelarske USA permit for NENE section 8-151-93, Reunion Bay;
    • Enerplus added two permits to its "Geo Features" play, in NENW section 16-152-94, 
      • Oxbow .... TF ... 486 FNL 2384 FWL
      • Plateau .. MB ... 485 FNL 2294 FWL (surface separation, slightly more than 22 feet)
One dry hole:
  • 32464, dry, BR, CCU Burner 1-1-26TFH, Corral Creek; the hole was plugged after having problems with hole stability and running intermediate casing;
Enerplus' "Geo Features" Play

The wells:
  • 37513, loc, Enerplus, Oxbow 152-94-16BH-21H-TF, Antelope,
  • 37514, loc, Enerplus, Plateau 152-94-16BH-21H, Antelope,
  • 33461, 840, Enerplus, Mesa 152-94-16A-21H, Three Forks, 30 stages; 2.3 million lbs; Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 190K 2/20; permitted for middle Bakken, but changed to Three Forks first bench, July 1, 2020
  • 33460, 1,687, Enerplus, Mesa 152-94-16A-21H-TF1, 39 stages, 9.4 million lbs, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 303K 2/20;
  • 33459, 1,192, Enerplus, Canyon 152-94-16A-21H-TF2, 39 stages, 9.5 million lbs; Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 315K 2/20; permitted for Three Forks B2, but sundry form dated July 1, 2017, target change to middle Bakken "D."
  • 33458, 1,115, Enerplus, Ravine 152-94-16A-21H, 39 stages; 8.2 million lbs; Antelope-Sanish, t11/17; cum 345K 2/20;

Director's Cut -- February, 2020, Data -- Posted

Link here.

Month-over-month crude oil production increased by 1.4% ... and this was in the middle of winter. This is based on preliminary figures; when the final figures are in (next month), the percent will increase).

Crude oil production (bopd) increased month-over-month, despite:
  • this being February, historically the most severe winter month of the year;
  • completions dropped from 70 wells in January, to a meager 57 wells in February (average 2.258 wells/day vs 1.966 wells/day); ; the greatest amount of oil produced by a Bakken well is in its first full six months after being fracked; a decrease in the number of completed wells is historically problematic;
  • DUCs increased by almost 3%; the greatest amount of oil produced by a Bakken well is in its first full six months after being fracked; an increase in DUCs is historically problematic;
  • so, what accounted for the better production numbers? The number of inactive wells dropped by a whopping 20% (actual: 19.793%)?
  • what would account for such a large number of inactive wells coming back on line? better weather and pad drilling
Disclaimer: As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be content and typographical errors on this page. I need to check the figures later. If this is important to you, go to the source.
The Director's Cut
Data For February, 2020
North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here to past reports.

A huge, huge "thank you" to Lynn Helms and his staff at the NDIC getting this information out in a timely and transparent manner. I am not aware of any other state that does such a good job providing such data.
Crude oil production:
  • February, 2020, preliminary: 1,451,029 bopd 
  • previous months: 
    • January, 2020, final: 1,430,511 bopd (all-time time was November, 2019)
    • December, 2019, final: 1,476,777 bopd
    • November, 2019, final:1,519,037 bopd -- new all-time high after final figures come in;
      • revenue forecast: 1.4 million bopd
    • October, 2019, final: 1,517,936 bopd -- previous all-time high
    • September, 2019, final, 1,443,980 bopd -- very, very wet September that impacted oil fields
    • August, 2019, final, 1,480,475 bopd (previous all-time high)
    • July, 2019, final: 1,445,934 bopd (previous all-time high)
    • June, 2019, final: 1,425,230 bopd (previous all-time high)
  • month-over-month, bbls: 20,518 bopd  (February, 2020 - January, 2020)
  • month-over-month, percent: +1.5%  (February, 2020 - January, 2020)
Gas production:
  • February, 2020, preliminary: 3,102,965 MCF/day (new all-time high); 87% capture;
  • January, 2020, final: 3,019,938 MCF/day; 84% capture rate (improved, month-over-month)
  • Previous months:
    • December, 2019, final: 3,061,412 MCF/day; 84% capture rate (improved, month-over-month)
    • November, 2019, final: 3,165,585MCF/day; new all-time high on a per-day basis; all time on a monthly basis, October, 2019)
      • 83% capture
    • October, 2019, final: 3,070,616 MCF/day
      • 81% capture
    • September, 2019, final: 2,946,391 MCF/day (note -- fell below the 3-billion threshold previously reported)
    • August , 2019, final: 3,014,419 MCF/day -- an all-time high
    • July, 2019, final: 2,944,816 MCF/day
    • June, 2019, final: 2,885,293 MCF/day
BOE, December, preliminary:
  • February, 2020, preliminary
    • natural gas: 3,102,965 MCF/day = 517,075 boe
    • crude oil: 1,451,029 bopd
    • total boe, preliminary for February, 2020: 1,968,104 boepd
  • all-time high, November, 2019: 2,046,547 boepd
Producing wells:
  • February, 2020, preliminary: 16,118
  • January, 2020, final; 16,014
  • December, 2019, final; 16,042
  • November, 2019, final: 16,110
  • October, 2019, final: 16,169 (new all-time high)
  • September, 2019, final: 16,115
  • August, 2019, final: 15,964 (all-time high was 15,954, July 2019)
  • July, 2019, final: 15,954 (another new all-time high)
  • June, 2019, 15,752
Wells off-line:
  • February, 2020, preliminary: 
    • inactive: 2,091
    • DUCs: 1,054
    • total: 3,145
  • January, 2020, final:
    • inactive: 2,607
    • DUCs: 1,024
    • total: 3,631
  • December, 2019, final:
    • inactive: 1,920
    • DUCs: 958
    • total: 2,878
  • November, 2019, final:
    • inactive: 1,726
    • DUCs: 919
    • total: 2,645
  • March, 2020: 60
  • February, 2020: 60
  • January, 2020: 61
  • December, 2019: 67
  • November, 2019: 79
  • October, 2019: 126
  • September, 2019: 92
  • August, 2019: 127
  • July, 2019: 141
  • June, 2019: 127
Rig count:
  • Today: 34 (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/12)
  • March, 2020: 52 
  • February, 2020: 54
  • January, 2020: 55
  • December, 2019: 55
  • November: 55
  • October: 56
  • September: 61
  • August: 62
  • July: 57
  • June: 63
Fort Berthold Reservation data partitioned out.

  • February, 2020, preliminary: 57
  • January, 2020, final: 70 (revised)
  • December, 2019, final: 88 (revised)
    • revenue forecast: 90
  • November, 2019, final: 92
  • October, 2019, final: 102
  • September, 2019, final: 117 (revised up from 94) (revised a second time, up from 112)
  • August, 2019, final: 102
  • July, 2019, final: 137
  • June, 2019, 102 (revised, last month's report); revised again, now, 123
  • May, 2019, 113 (final)
 Gas capture:
  • statewide, captured: 87% (trending better compared to previous two months)
  • statewide, captured: 
    • February, 2020: 3,102,965 MCF/day (preliminary) new all-time high
    • January, 2020: 2,553,067 MCF/day (final)
    • December, 2019: 2,557446 MCF/day (final)
    • November, 2019: 2,594,922 MCF/day (new all-time high)
    • October, 2019:  2,524,405 MCF/day
    • September, 2019: 2,429,487 MCF/day
    • previous all time high was May, 2019: 2,287,761 MCF/day
    • FBIR Bakken:
      • January, 2020: 83%
      • December, 2019: 81%
      • November, 2019: 81%
        October, 2019, captured: 70% (was 79% in September)(75% reported two months ago, August, 2019)
Off line, to end of February, 2020: 3,145 -- up significantly from January, 2020 -- 3,631 in January; 
  • DUCs: 1,054 (up 30 from the 1,024 in January;
  • inactive well count: 2,091 (down 516 from 2,607 in January )
  • wells off line for operational reasons are tracked here;  
  • if I recall correctly, December, 2019, was a fairly "mild" winter by North Dakota standards;
  • January: huge jump in DUCs and inactive wells; 
  • February, 2020, was a fairly mild month, as I recall;
A year earlier, February, 2019, the "off-line well" data:
    February, 2019:
    • DUCs: 894, up 27 from last report
    • inactive: 1,667, up a whopping 150 from last report
    • total: 2,561 (up from 2,332 last month, about 800 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year)

      A Pop-Quiz -- April 14, 2020

      Note: I think I have this correct, but with limited knowledge about the oil and gas industry, I could have this wrong. I am posting it to learn more about the Bakken.

      A reader noted this; I wasn't paying attention.

      Look at the production data at this well:
      • 17159, 811, CLR, Rodney 1-29H, Cedar Coulee,  t8/08; cum 166K 2/20;
      This is the production profile for this well going back to February, 2018, (data is available all the way back to the beginning, June, 2008, but the data goes back far enough to make some observations. I will provide some "clues" and then come back later and post what a very, very alert reader noted.

      The clues:
      • pay attention to the last three columns, the natural gas produced / sold / flared columns;
      • unlike crude oil, natural gas is not stored on site; 
      • unlike crude oil, natural gas has a very, very short life at the site (the excess is vented/flared, not stored);
      • crude oil can be stored at the site, "indefinitely"; 
      • early on, let's say back before 2017 in the table below, MFC produced = MCF sold + vented/flared;
      • more recently, let's say after May, 2018, in the graphic below, MFC produced ≠ MCF sold + vented/flared
      • so, what changed between May, 2018, and June, 2018? 
      The reader's comments will be posted later.
      PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

      Notes From All Over -- The Delayed Morning Edition -- April 14, 2020

      Meltdown 2020: these are the three data points that will speak volumes about whether US shale will survive or not, or if it survives, how it will do long term:
      • Canadian dollar; threshold alarm? 66 cents on the US dollar;
      • Oasis: whether it files for reorganization; see graphic at this post;
      • CLR's activity in the Bakken
      For Collector's Only

      Lego: ten years from now, this product will be retired, and going for 5x what it is selling for today. If one can find the set in an unopened box: Old Trafford -- Manchester United.

      Chinese Pandas: the one-ounce silver coins.

      "Lock-Down Losers"

      Surgeons and anesthesiologts: taking huge income hits, particularly orthopedic surgeons. All/most/much elective surgery is being postponed during lockdown.  Orthopedic surgeons:
      • mostly elective surgery: knee, hip replacements; entirely elective
      • sports injuries: sports canceled
      • automobile accidents: no one is driving
      "Lock-Down Winners"

      Makers of mini-vans: going forward, it might take awhile to see the data, but we're going to see a lot more delivery vans going forward.
      The lock-down likely changed America's shopping habits for good. And that's going to result in a lot of minivans. Note: minivans (aka trucks): not subject to CAFE standards, as far as I know.
      The Apple Page

      Doing very well, thank you for asking. Link here.

      By the way, China vs US with regard to Wuhan flu, it may be counter-intuitive, but China has the upper hand with regard to the economy. I'm not making a value judgment (good or bad), it's just an observation.

      US Storage -- EIA -- April 14, 2020

      If this is even close to accurate, there seems to be a bit of slack:

      Random Update Of A Lime Rock Resources Well In Alger Field -- April 14, 2020

      Another nice Bakken well brought back from the dead. For newbies, this is something we just don't see in conventional drilling, and something that defies Hubbert's theory (again).

      The well:
      •  24511, 52, Lime Rock Resources, t4/13; cum 153K 2/20; MDU sold (some of) its Bakken assets to Lime Rock; recent production:
      PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

      Random Update Of A Nice Lime Rock Resources Well In Alger Oil Field -- April 14, 2020

      Folks won't remember this but in the "old days," the Bakken decline was fierce and much talked about. We don't hear much about the Bakken decline any more (I might talk about that later, if I remember). It's still there -- the Bakken decline -- but wow, how things have changed.

      • 33634, 1,016, Lime Rock Resources, Sandy 18-19-2H, 50 stages; 10.1 million lbs, Alger, t11/17; cum 284K 2/20;
      Total production is not all that great for a relatively new well in the Bakken but nothing to complain about. Most interesting for me: production for this well has held up very, very nicely. See full production here.

      Recent production:
      PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare