Sunday, April 18, 2021

Chariots On Fire And The J&J Vaccine Conundrum -- April 18, 2021


April 19, 2021: Tesla -- unsafe at any speed.

April 19, 2021: someone's reading the blog. After I posted the note below, others on social media took up the discussion. Link here.  


Original Post

Last night there was yet another report of a deadly crash and severe fire involving a Tesla; two men died. The story and links were posted here earlier.

I don't know how many deadly accidents, fires, incidents there have been involving Tesla but the number of deaths is way more than the one death reported out of 6.8 million J&J Covid-19 vaccinations. With six severe reactions (blood clots) with one reaction leading to death following 6.8 million vaccinations, the J&J Covid-19 vaccination was pulled off the market for an indefinite period of time, despite the fact that the disease can be much more life threatening than the vaccine. 

It should be noted that the blood clots had not been confirmed to be the result of the vaccine when the decision was made to take the vaccine off the market.

And yet here, with what seems to be many more fires and "accidents," and way more deaths than the one death noted above, Tesla has not been pulled off the market.  

For Covid-19 protection we are advised to wear a mask. Perhaps Nomex should be required for those riding inside a Tesla. It goes without saying social distancing is good advice for both. 

Mouse Houses Along The Baseboards

For the archives.

According to a reader, these "little things" increased the re-sale value of a house. Who would have guessed?

Panic Time: NBA Viewership Approaching Historic Lows -- Source -- April 18, 2021

A reader gave me an opportunity to re-post this story:

Video Worth 10,000 Words

I assume this link will break eventually. The link:

The video is of an extraordinary shot in an NBA game the other night.

The shot was interesting but the point of the post is to point out a couple of things.

First, this is an NBA game. Note how full the stands are. I believe there are more folks on the court than in the stands. Can you imagine how much money these venues are losing? And the television audience? Except for hardcore NBA fans, I can't imagine many folks actually watching these games on television. 

Second, check out the "masks" and social distancing. LOL. 

The reason for re-posting? This Breitbart story: panic time -- the NBA is fast-approaching historic ratings lows.

The NBA has suffered another ratings disaster, with ABC falling 45 percent since the 2011-12 season, while TNT was down 40 percent, and ESPN was off 20 percent.

The ESPN number is the most interesting, considering that "sports fans" tune in to this station.  

And then this, more entertaining than the last two minutes of an NBA basketball game:

In The Manner of Norman Rockwell

Water Shortage -- Western US -- US Prepares For Possible First Water Shortage -- April 18, 2021

Link here
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation released 24-month projections this week forecasting that less Colorado River water will cascade down from the Rocky Mountains through Lake Powell and Lake Mead and into the arid deserts of the U.S. Southwest and the Gulf of California.

Water levels in the two lakes are expected to plummet low enough for the agency to declare an official shortage for the first time, threatening the supply of Colorado River water that growing cities and farms rely on.

Link here

Meanwhile, in Texas, dancing in the rain:

Wearing her "Blue-Light" glasses for computer work.

The Market -- April 18, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

CVX: SeekingAlpha contributor -- Chevron could deliver a 20%+ total return this year -- summary --

  • Chevron currently yields 5% and the stock closed Friday at $103.
  • Yet the last time WTI was at the current level of $63/bbl (last January), Chevron was trading at $121.
  • That was before the addition of ~215,000 boe/d of Noble production, before taking an estimated $2.5 billion out of op-ex, and before implementing an even more disciplined cap-ex plan.
  • Add it all up, and CVX should very easily trade back up to $121 this year (and I think significantly above that level) and deliver a 20%+ total return for investors
  • This is likely one reason Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway holds 48.5 million shares of CVX stock. Buffett really likes dividends -- as long as he's collecting them, not paying them.

The lede:

Over the past 10-years, Chevron has almost doubled its annual dividend from $2.60/share to the current $5.16/share - making it one of the best dividend growth stocks in the energy sector. 

The last dividend increase in January of 2020 was 8%. 

The company will restrain capital spending this year to ~$14 billion, which is only 3.7% higher than last year's $13.5 billion (excluding the Noble Energy acquisition) and a drastic reduction from the ~$20 billion plans prior to the global pandemic. That fact, combined with the recent strength in oil and gas prices, means that Chevron will likely resume its long-term track record of meaningful dividend increases after a pause last year due to the dramatic oil demand destruction caused by the pandemic.

Then this: 
Unlike its peer Exxon Mobil, Chevron has pragmatically embraced the new era of energy abundance and has taken steps to mitigate the impact of generally lower oil and gas margins. 
In addition to the reduction in cap-ex mentioned earlier, note in 2019 CEO Mike Wirth refused to get into a bidding war with Occidental Petroleum over Anadarko and in the process walked away with a cool $1 billion break-up fee
More recently, Chevron has announced the sale of its upstream and downstream Marcellus dry-gas assets for $735 million to further bolster the balance sheet, secure the dividend, and lower operating expenses. 
The result is that Chevron has the strongest dividend growth and strongest balance sheet in its peer group.

As mentioned many times on the blog, I never would have ended up with my position in CVX had I not taken advantage of the Texaco bankruptcy decades ago. 

The Noble deal (compare with Pioneer - DoublePoint Energy):

As for the well-timed Noble Energy deal - which was announced during the bottom of the cycle last year - Chevron added 18% more proved reserves at less than $5/boe: an eye-popping cheap deal. At the time, Chevron said the deal would be accretive to ROCE, free cash flow, and earnings per share within one year assuming $40/bbl Brent. Brent closed Friday at $66.77. Can you say "pull-forward" on the accretion timeline?

Best Proof Yet That Global Warming Due To Rising Atmospheric CO2 Is "True" -- April 18, 2021

God. I knew the Mossad was good but this suggests they have powers well beyond anything previously imagined or a direct line to God, perhaps both:

The Big Question

The big question: what were the "two guys" doing in the back seat? Asking for a friend.

A typical fine engine is designed to carry 500 gallons of water and pumps water from a hydrant - generally 1,500 gallons per minute.


  • 32,000 / 500 = 64 engines; or,
  • 32,000 / 1,500 = 21 minutes (minus the first few minutes of sorting out what to do).

    From another source:

    According to KPRC 2, the brother-in-law of one of the victims said the men were taking the car out for a spin, and that the driver was seen backing out of the driveway and may have hopped in the back seat before the crash.

    A sheriff's department spokesperson said the vehicle immediately burst into flames following the crash, and that local firefighters worked for four hours to put out the blaze, which required 32,000 gallons of water to extinguish.

    At one point, responding deputies had to call Tesla at one point to ask them how to put out the fire in the battery, which kept reigniting. Officials are still reportedly investigating whether the front passenger air bag deployed and whether the vehicle's advanced driver-assistance system was enabled at the time of the crash and will conduct autopsies on the two men.

Global Warming

Global warming: This may, in fact, be the best proof that the global-warming-due-to-rising-atmospheric-CO2 story may be true.

It would explain:

  • the results of the most recent US presidential election;
  • Biden's choice for VP:
  • AOC;
  • Greta;
  • Dr Fauci.

Was there a subliminal, Freudian, "woke," culture-canceling reason why a stock photo of a male in a library was selected to highlight a story on stupid people?

Maybe "stupid" was too strong a word; let's just stick with "less intelligent."

Millennials Leaving The East Coast; Flocking To These Cities

Link here

New destinations:

  • Denver: highest net migration; the millennials make up 33% of the city's population, the fifth highest percentage overall;
  • Texas: the state with the biggest migration among the 25-39-y/o crowd
  • five of the top ten destination cities: in states with no income tax on salaries or wages;
  • New York City and Chicago saw the biggest net losses of millennials;
  • "random" list of cities with big millennial gains:
    • Colorado Springs, CO: near the site of the MLB All-Star game:
    • Friso, TX: down the road from us;
    • Cary, NC: shares the "Triangle" with Raleigh and Durham;
    • Henderson, NV: outside Las Vegas

Umami To Kokumi

Link here

In 1907, while enjoying a bowl of soup made with dashi broth and kombu seaweed, the Japanese chemist Kikunae Ikeda had an insight that would change the culinary world. He noticed a taste that wasn’t sweet, salty, sour or bitter. Ikeda gave this hard-to-describe savory taste a name—umami—and went on to identify the specific amino acid that triggered it. See monosodium glutamate

Scientists in Europe and the U.S. remained skeptical about whether umami really was a taste until a receptor for it was discovered on the tongue almost a century later, in 2000. Today, it is taken for granted by most scientists and chefs, but interest is now growing in another taste first detected in Japan.

The newer taste, kokumi, is even harder to describe than umami, but it is potentially just as important for understanding how and why we enjoy food. In Japanese, the term koku describes foods that have the kind of mouthful “thickness” often imparted by fats—what English speakers might describe as rich. “It feels like a physical sensation,” says the culinary scientist Joshua Evans. It works “by coating the mouth and becoming more intense and being extended in time.” When asked what foods have koku, Japanese food experts list wild boar, adult wasps, duck eggs and aged sake, as well as long-simmered and fermented dishes.

None of which (wild boar adult wasps, duck eggs or aged sake) are in my pantry or refrigerator.

The "Game Of Life" -- The Covid-19 Edition -- April 18, 2021

Wow, that was fast. 

Some folks have suggested the previous administration rushed the bureaucratic process in order to allow "emergency use" authorization of JNJ's Covid-19 vaccine. It took about a year, I suppose, to go from "zero" to "emergency authorization use" with a gazillion pages of scientific research and bureaucratic review prior to release. 

So, on a Tuesday, April 13, 2021, four business days ago, the "authorities" asked states to temporarily and voluntarily halt the administration of said vaccine. 

Now, less than four full business days later, the "authorities" are apparently ready to recommend states voluntarily resume administration of the JNJ vaccine. 

Several story lines.

One: the word on the street is that the Covid vaccine is more dangerous than the disease. One step forward three steps back on the "Game of Life" board, the "Covid-19 edition." The often talked-about, seldom-seen Covid-19 edition comes with six little pewter game pieces: the Fauci bobble-head; the Biden bubble-head; the Trump "orange man" piece; the Trump "natural color" piece; a mask; and, a syringe.

Two: the "authorities" are really, really fast readers. In less than four business days, not only did they review the gazillion pages of research, bureaucratic mumble-jumble, and legalese, it appears they are coming to a decision.

Three: sort of takes the wind out of that sail that the prior administration rushed things. It looks like the prior administration should have taken four more days to review this drug before releasing it. Or do it like NASCAR: three stages with the first stage having a scheduled yellow flag caution. 

The government should have had a first stage lasting three months, and then stopping all vaccinations to evaluate side effects for one month, with a one-week "stoppage" in the middle of the three months to evaluate the distribution process. The second stage, same as the first: three months and then shutting down for a month to study side effects. Finally, a third and final stage with no end date.

The DAPL: Where We Stand Today

A Reminder:

I certainly hope the judge's decision is not released Monday.

Where we stand today:

Friday, April 9, 2021, day 0:

  • US Army Corps of Engineers won't shut it down; will let judge decide
  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Saturday, April 10, 2021, day 1:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Sunday, April 11, 2021, day 2:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Monday, April 12, 2021, day 3:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Tuesday, April 13, 2021, day 4:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Wednesday, April 14, 2021, day 5:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Thursday, April 15, 2021, day 6:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Friday, April 16, 2021, day 7:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;
Saturday, April 17, 2021, day 8:
  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Sunday, April 18, 2021, day 9:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Monday, April 19, 2021, day 10:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Tuesday, April 20, 2021, day 11:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Wednesday, April 21, 2021, day 12:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Thursday, April 22, 2021, day 13:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Friday, April 23, 2021, day 14:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

36922, The MRO Lang Well -- From FracFocus And The File Report -- April 18, 2021

The well (see this post for background):

  • 36922, AL/A,  MRO, Lang USA 41-8TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 206K 2/21. The MRO L-O-T-V pad is tracked here. Note: 64,505 bbls over 17 days extrapolates to 113,832 bbls of crude oil over 30 days; 26,150 bbls over 8 days extrapolates to 98,063 bbls of crude oil over 30 days.

FracFocus (link here  -- 33-06-04594:

  • fracked 9/16/20 - 9/28/20:
  • 9.85 million gallons of water (not particularly remarkable; a moderate-size frack)
  • 86.3% water by mass;
  • friction reducers:
  • HVFR-100, DynaChem USA; CAS 64742-47-8;
  • HVFR-100, DynaChem USA; CAS 69011-36-5;

From the file report:

  • from a sundry form received November 13, 20219:
    • name change to Lang USA 41-8TFH;
    • hand-written NDIC note: target formation changed to TF B1;
    • SHL changed to 1184' FNL 845' FEL, section 8-151-93
    • BHL changed to 190' FNL 2460' FEL, section 12-151-94
    • administrative fee for this change: $25.00
  • original permit:
    • middle Bakken:
    • 3200-acre spacing unit: sections 5/6/7/8-151-93, E2 of sections 1 & 12 - 151-94
  • completion report
    • TD: 23,509'
    • target, Three Forks first bench, geologic top, top TVD: 10,638'.
    • IP: 
      • oil: 5,099 bbls
      • gas (MCF): 4,771
    • completion:
      • 17 million lbs proppant; huge frack;
      • stages: 52
      • volume: 234,497 bbls
  • geologist's report not yet scanned in file report

MRO Reports Another Huge Well In The Bakken -- Extrapolates To 114,000 Bbls Over 30 Days -- April 18, 2021

"Preliminary" data for this well has been reported often on the blog in the past few weeks. Now we have the "official" word. And it's huge. 

Added later: not only that, the parent well seems to be doing very, very well, contrary to what many have opined in the past, and it appears the daughter well will be a much bigger well than the parent well. But again, remember, I am inappropriately about the Bakken. One assumes the "parent" well has long been paid for.  

Added later: see more about these wells at this post.

The well:

  • 36922, AL/A,  MRO, Lang USA 41-8TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 206K 2/21. The MRO L-O-T-V pad is tracked here. Note: 64,505 bbls over 17 days extrapolates to 113,832 bbls of crude oil over 30 days; 26,150 bbls over 8 days extrapolates to 98,063 bbls of crude oil over 30 days.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

On another note, just out of curiosity, how is this "daughter" well doing in comparison to the "parent" well? Remember, the experts tell us that the "daughter" wells in the shale will do significantly worse than the "parent" wells, and, furthermore, could irreparably damage the parent wells. So, let's look.

The parent well in this case:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Comparing The Jaw-Dropping Initial Production Of A Bakken Daughter Well With That Of Her Parent Well -- April 18, 2021

Let's compare the initial production data for a "parent" well with that of a "daughter" well in the Bakken. 

First the "parent" well.

The parent well in this case:


Now the initial production for one of the daughter wells to this parent well.

A daughter well:

  • 36922, AL/A,  MRO, Lang USA 41-8TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 206K 2/21. The MRO L-O-T-V pad is tracked here. Note: 64,505 bbls over 17 days extrapolates to 113,832 bbls of crude oil over 30 days; 26,150 bbls over 8 days extrapolates to 98,063 bbls of crude oil over 30 days. 
oolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Feel free to put your jaw back in place after comparing the first five months of production for the daughter well with that of the parent well. 

From 9/10 through 1/11 (five months): 56,207 bbls of crude oil produced (as reported) for the parent well.

In seventeen days, the daughter well produced 64,5005 bbls

'Nuff said. For now. 

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- April 18, 2021

The wells:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- April 18, 2021

Monday, April 26, 2021: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 102 for the year:
36923, conf, MRO, Thorson USA 41-8H, 

Sunday, April 25, 2021: 20 for the month, 20 for the quarter, 101 for the year:
37515, conf, MRO, Pelarske USA 44-5TFH-2B,

Saturday, April 24, 2021: 19 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 100 for the year:

Friday, April 23, 2021: 19 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 100 for the year:
35801, conf, Enerplus, Hail 149-93-07A-12H, 

Thursday, April 22, 2021: 18 for the month, 18 for the quarter, 99 for the year:
35800, conf, Enerplus, Frost 149-93-07A-12H-TF-LL,

Wednesday, April 21, 2021: 17 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 98 for the year:

Tuesday, April 20, 2021: 17 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 98 for the year:

Monday, April 19, 2021: 17 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 98 for the year:

Sunday, April 18, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 97 for the year:

Saturday, April 17, 2021: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 96 for the year: