Chevron Trimming Non-Core Assets; Closing In On Hess Deal -- October 28, 2024

Locator: 48667B.

Israel: having spent a lot of time over the weekend reading the various reports and the social media response, one really gets the feeling that armchair analysts -- professional and amateur -- have no idea how big a story that the Israeli response was.  

One hundred aircraft, most of them older model fighters (F-16s and F-15s) and only a few stealthy fighters, slow-moving tankers, and I assume AWACS, and telegraphing Iranians and Washington, DC, the attack was about to come, and not one a/c was lost. Surgical strikes and not hitting oil and nuclear sites per Biden's demand. And from what I can tell, Iran's entire air defense system was taken out.

WSJ: link here. Actually we've seen this movie before. Nominees for the annual Geico Rock Award: Daniel Michaels, Rajesh Roy.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.75.

Tuesday, October 29, 2024: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter, 572 for the year

• 40592, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 5B,
• 26450, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 150-99-26-35-4H,
• 26449, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 150-99-26-35-3H,

Monday, October 28, 2024: 55 for the month; 55 for the quarter, 569 for the year

• 40598, conf,  CLR, Doe 7-23H,
• 40216, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-6H

Sunday, October 27, 2024: 53 for the month; 53 for the quarter, 567 for the year

• 40215, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-5H,

Saturday, October 26, 2024: 52 for the month; 52 for the quarter, 566 for the year

• 40597, conf, CLR, Doe 6-23H,
• 40591, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 4B,
• 40214, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-4H,

RBN Energy: Chevron trimming non-core assets in advance of closing on Hess deal. Archived.

The multibillion-dollar acquisitions that have become almost routine in the upstream sector the past few years are typically accompanied by asset rationalization — in other words, a thoughtful look at which elements of the pro forma company make sense followed by the divestiture of those that don’t. In many cases, a key aim of that rationalization process is trimming any debt associated with the acquisition itself. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the big steps Chevron has been taking to rework its portfolio — and sell off up to $15 billion in assets — as it inches toward closing on its $60 billion purchase of Hess Corp. 

ExxonMobil’s $64.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources ($59.5 billion in stock plus the assumption of $5 billion of Pioneer debt), which closed in May, may be the biggest individual upstream deal ever. But when you add ’em up, Chevron’s M&A hat trick — Noble Energy ($13 billion; closed in October 2020), PDC Energy ($7.6 billion; closed in May 2023) and, most recently, Hess Corp. ($60 billion; closing sometime next year) — gives the second-largest descendant of Standard Oil bragging rights as the #1 upstream acquirer in recent history, with deals totaling more than $73 billion, including the assumption of a combined $17.5 billion of debt.

Nominee -- Geico Rock Award -- 2024

Locator: 48512GEICOROCK.

Link here.

Nominee: Andrew J. Hawkins, transportation editor, The Verge, from the Phil LeBeau School of Transportation.

From the linked article:

Let’s get one thing out of the way: contrary to what you may have heard, electric vehicle sales are up.

I know, recent headlines suggest otherwise.

• Tesla sales are down.
• Ford is scaling back its EV rollout.
• General Motors is delaying an electric truck and holding back on investments in EV battery mining.
• And Hertz is off-loading EVs as its stock price struggles.
• Automakers across the board are losing millions — some are losing billions — as customer demand appears to have flatlined after an initial burst of excitement.

The vibe, as they say, is grim.

And yet, sales are still growing. JD Power is projecting that 1.2 million EVs will be sold in the US by the end of 2024, an increase over 1 million sold last year. That’s 9 percent of total vehicles sold, which has been revised down from a previous prediction of 12 percent.

Fake EVs will do just fine. Which are basically ICEs with a marginal kick. 

Around The Net -- July 9, 2024

Locator: 48086B.

Leonard Peltier: denied parole. Again. Link here.

US air travel. Wow. Link here.

Vanishing islands not vanishing. Old, old story, but NYT finally getting around to reporting it. Geico Rock Award nominations for this story: NYT, Raymond Zhong.  The Maldives, the poster child for global warming and rising seas:

And indeed, when the world began paying attention to global warming decades ago, these islands, which form atop coral reefs in clusters called atolls, were quickly identified as some of the first places climate change might ravage in their entirety. As the ice caps melted and the seas crept higher, these accidents of geologic history were bound to be corrected and the tiny islands returned to watery oblivion, probably in this century.

Then, not very long ago, researchers began sifting through aerial images and found something startling. They looked at a couple dozen islands first, then several hundred, and by now close to 1,000. They found that over the past few decades, the islands’ edges had wobbled this way and that, eroding here, building there. By and large, though, their area hadn’t shrunk. In some cases, it was the opposite: They grew. The seas rose, and the islands expanded with them.

Great Barrier Reef: never better! Link here.

Rock and Brews: front men, KISS -- opens huge new establishment in Grapevine -- appears to be opening in destination locations ... 

Carry that weight: even The Verge commented on this. EVs can't corner. They weigh too much. Link here. They might do well competing in "Funny Car" races.

My wife laughed. She doesn't get it! Link here.

Measles -- It's Back -- Vaccination? Up To Parents -- Florida SG -- February 26, 2024

Locator: 46911PH. 

Back on November 15, 2024, I posted a nice story regarding measles. I learned a lot posting that note.

Measles the most infectious pathogenic human virus -- and except for chickenpox, nothing else is even close.

The post:

• basic reproduction number for measles:

The basic reproduction number, R nought (R0), is defined as the average number of secondary cases of an infectious disease arising from a typical case in a totally susceptible population, and can be estimated in populations if pre-existing immunity can be accounted for in the calculation. 

R0 determines the herd immunity threshold and therefore the immunisation coverage required to achieve elimination of an infectious disease. 

As R0 increases, higher immunisation coverage is required to achieve herd immunity. In July, 2010, a panel of experts convened by WHO concluded that measles can and should be eradicated. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, regions have had varying success in measles control, in part because measles is one of the most contagious infections. 

For measles, R0 is often cited to be 12–18, which means that each person with measles would, on average, infect 12–18 other people in a totally susceptible population ... We calculated median measles R0 values stratified by key covariates. We found that R0 estimates vary more than the often cited range of 12–18. 

R0, various sources, generally accepted:

• measles: 12 - 18
• chickenpox: 10 - 12
• seasonal flu (influenza, e.g., H1N1): 2 - 3
• Ebola: 1.7 - 2.0
• Chinese flu: 1.2

Apparently the Florida SG didn't get the memo. He will let parents decide. Public Health no longer matters.

In the big scheme of things, measles is so much worse than Covid, so much worse, on so many levels.

The Brits are well aware.

My hunch: the "spare" previously known as Prince Harry has his kids vaccinated. But then, maybe not. 

Florida SG: nominee for the 2024 Geico Rock Award.

Oil: Surging Today -- January 18, 2024

Locator: 46578WTI.

WTI: up almost 2%; up almost $1.40; trading right at $74.

Let's look at some of the stories earlier today:

• Bloomberg: oil surplus in 2023 confounded the bulls; it doesn't matter. LOL.
• IEA: raises oil demand outlook for 2024 third consecutive month.
• twitter: the oil boom almost no one sawing (nominee for Geico Rock Award 2024?)