Saturday, May 10, 2025

No Signs Of Slowing Economy -- No Signs Of Recession -- In Nashville, TN -- May 10, 2025

Locator: 40609ECONOMY.

Starbucks: drive-thru lanes / lines longer than those at Chick-fil-A! And, no, I'm not in a drive-thru lane at Starbucks. LOL. But I am inside. On the other hand, trending in Nashville: White Buson.

Canadian travelers: my hunch -- if accurate -- the report that boardings from Canada to US are down --

  • if that report is accurate, it speaks volumes about the state of the Canadian economy; Canadians unable to afford vacations this year;
  • Canadians afraid to visit US? It won't last; if it does, Trump is living rent-free among the Canadians.
  • if it lasts; Disney theme parks will be less crowded for Americans.r
  • I doubt one American -- except me -- woke up thinking about that report this morning.

Permian: from the dominant infrastructure player in  the Permian --

  • anticipate +200 - 300,000 b/d y/y in 1Q25
  • y/y increase driven by strong 4Q24 and "surge of completions"
  • "we really haven't seen any impact of prices so far, and we don't expect for the next month of so" -- DanTsubouchi.

Search:

  • one year ago: 100% of my search was on google;
  • this year: 100% of my "wiki" searches start with google; all other searches start with AI
  • my "wiki" searches are the type of searches I would be with Encyclopedia Brittanica in the old days
  • AI through each of my three browsers, suggesting it's all google
  • however, AI directly through my browser appears to eliminate all "sponsored" hits -- at least superficially
  • "wiki" searches still account for 50% of my searches, I suppose, but I spend 3 - 5x more time on AI generative that on wiki, if that makes sense
  • I now end all searches with "AI" or "wiki"
  • it will be interesting how the flow of advertising dollars will change with this change -- especially as OpenAI and xAI become more common
  • ChatGPT, of course, is not google -- I wonder if my generic AI searches go through Google Gemini; probably
  • apparently, there are suggestions google's search moat has been bridged

Presidents:

  • Gallup poll, February 11, 2025, best- / least-liked presidents among those still living
  • kind of amazing -- actually very, very amazing
  • it would be interesting to ask the sames respondents which president was the most polarizing?
  • my hunch: it would suggest Americans can "deal with" polarizing presidents.