May 21, 2025

Locator: 48651B.

US passenger railroad expansion: we'll never see it but folks are spending a fair amount of money to "press the issue." 

This route would follow existing passenger rail from Chicago to Fargo, but then take the "southern route" across North Dakota (Jamestown, Bismarck, Dickinson) and the the "southern route" across Montana before joining existing passenger track west of Montana. I assume no new track would have to be laid, but simply brought up to standard for passenger traffic. The northern route is fairly empty -- Minot, Williston, Great Falls -- whereas the southern route connects more cities and larger cities and services a huge tourism demand. Of note: the stop at St Regis. Wow.

AI: the amount of money exchanging hands is simply incredible. As just one example, compare the amount of money Sam Altman just handed Jony Ive and the budget of the US Department of Interior, 2024: less than $20 billion. NASA's budget was $25 billion.

OpenAI: link here. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Apple wunderkind Jony Ive partner with AI on io. OpenAI's acquisition of io is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to be completed this summer. It is OpenAI's biggest acquisition to date, with the company paying $6.5 billion for io.

Themes: I track "themes for 2025" here. Mostly related to tech but occasionally commentary on politics or other things.

Added May 21, 2025: 

• the one issue that lost the election for Joe Biden / Kamala Harris: the Southern Surge; 
• the likely single issue that will define the next election (November 2028): saving women's sports;

*****************************
End-Of-Day Report -- The Bakken

WTI: $61.57.

Active rigs: 33.

Five new permits, #41941 - #31945, inclusive:

• Operators: Phoenix Operating (4); XTO
• Fields: Big Stone (Williams); Grinnell (Williams)
• Comments:
• XTO has a permit for a GBU Zeus well, SWSE 8-154-95, 
• to be sited 1120 FSL and 2225 FEL;
• Phoenix Operating has permits for four Goodnight wells, SWSW 22-159-98, 
• to be sited 489 FSL and 1068 / 1188 FWL.

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 40675, 1,446, CLR, Carpenter 7-13HSL, Williams County;
• 40752, 1,418, CLR, Taney 4-23H, Dunn County;
• 40845, 1,651, CLR, Catron 5-26H, Dunn County;
• 40854, 1,282, CLR, Taney. 6-23H, Dunn County;

For The Archives -- Reuters -- Memo To Self: Avoid Articles By Raphael Satter, AJ Vicens, Chris Sanders And Anna Driver -- May 21, 2025

Locator: 48650REUTERS.

For the archives.

Incredibly bad article by Reuters. Clearly clickbait and not much else. Except that it's even worse. 

This is why I have no concern about Kristi Noem; RFK, Jr; Pete Hegseth; or any of the others on Trump's team. Any one of the four who worked on this article could be part of the next "administration."

The media is worried about the budget, the deficit. Again, something they never worried about when the Democrats were in control.

Archived.

****************************
Meanwhile, All On The Same Day
In Your Face

May 21, 2025: all happening on this day. For the archives.

• DOD accepts Qatar wide-body Boeing; will be flown as Air Force One; link here.
  
• confronts South African president mano a mano in the Oval Office regarding slaughter of Afrikaners
• South African president denies knowledge 
• China upset that President Trump will protect the US from Chinese  / North Korean / Russian / Iranian ballistic missiles armed with nuclear warheads -- known as "Golden Dome"
  

Biden Prostate Cancer Update -- May 21, 2025

Locator: 48649BIDENCANCER.

Updates

 

May 21, 2025: Biden's team is gradually releasing answers in dribs and drabs. 

Today we learn President Biden was last screened for prostate cancer when he was vice president, in 2014, when he was 72 years old. It varies but generally, sometime after the age of 70 -- as late as 85 (MD Anderson) -- routine screening for prostate cancer is discouraged.

It's generally agreed that it takes the "average" cancer of the prostate to metastasize to the bone an average of ten years. So the new information fits.

As long as Biden himself felt his urinary symptoms were tolerable/manageable for the past ten years, he would not have been tested or screened for prostate cancer. In fact, he may not have brought it up with his White House physician.

But something changed in early 2025 that led to that rectal exam that revealed a nodule. My hunch: politically, it no longer mattered what a comprehensive medical exam might discover. 

May 21, 2025: meanwhile.

Don't even get me started:

Died overnight:

• Gerry Connolly,
• age 75
• began treatment for esophageal cancer last year (2024)
• April 26, 2025 (about three weeks ago -- quite prescient) said he would not run for re-election in 2026 -- that's next year
• top democrat on US House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.
• reform? Some low-hanging fruit.

Original Post 

Biden. Diagnosed at least by July, 2022. Link here. Could have been “skin cancer.”

Bill Maher has it exactly right.

JFK: “Ask  not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.“

Events moving very quickly.

What could have been.

The irony: had Biden stemmed / addressed the Southern Surge, he would be president today. 

Biden himself had the “Pope-complex” — or the Ruth Bader Ginsburg-complex — exactly what we don’t need in American politics or the American presidency.

Clearly, folks were using the 25th Amendment “against” the wrong president.

Possible. Link here.

ChatGPT was asked: 

Percent of prostrate cancer determined to be “aggressive” on initial diagnosis. Percent of prostrate cancer determined to be “aggressive” on initial diagnosis.

Answer:

At the time of initial diagnosis, approximately 25% to 30% of prostate cancer cases are considered aggressive, typically characterized by a Gleason score between 7 and 10 . These higher Gleason scores indicate a greater likelihood of the cancer spreading beyond the prostate and potentially becoming life-threatening. 

However, other sources suggest that the proportion of aggressive cases at diagnosis may be lower. For instance, a Harvard study indicates that 10% to 15% of prostate cancers are aggressive and advance beyond the prostate, sometimes turning lethal. Similarly, Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center notes that 1 in 5 (or 20%) of those diagnosed with prostate cancer have a more aggressive form of the disease. 

The variation in these percentages underscores the complexity of prostate cancer diagnosis and the importance of individualized assessment. Factors such as PSA levels, tumor grade, and imaging results contribute to determining the aggressiveness of the cancer and guiding appropriate treatment strategies.

”Generally,” it takes ten years for prostate cancer to metastasize to the bone. President Biden has likely had prostate cancer for ten years, diagnosed or not.

Diagnosed at least by July, 2022. Link here. Could have been “skin cancer.”

Everything's Bigger In Texas -- Stargate Data Centers -- The New AI Data Center In Abilene -- 50,000 x 8 = 400,000 Blades -- Would Dwarf xAI's Announcement -- May 21, 2025

Locator: 48671AI.

Updates

 May 23, 2025: link here.

Energy Requirements

May 23, 2025: nothing new here, but social comments important.

May 23, 2025: Meta signed another big solar deal, link here;

• 650 MW across projects in Kansas and Texas
• American utility and power generation company AES is currently developing the solar-only projects
• 400 MW in Texax
• 250 MW in Kansas

Original Post 

Why Abilene?

• state of Texas: best business climate in the world
• relatively close to the new financial center in the US: Dallas
• energy requirements drove this:
• entire project stays in-state -- easier to get new energy projects approved by regulators
  
• needs lots of energy: ERCOT (electricity); Permian (natural gas)
• ERCOT: wind and solar
• Permian: natural gas
• Texas: "can-do attitude"
• but having said all that -- in Abilene? -- Absolutely amazing; most don't see Abilene as a tech center -- yet;  
• needed? A UT-Abilene concentrating in STEM degrees.
  

"Will be the biggest in the world," Sam Altman. 

AI is tracked here.

Stargate. 

So, right now, cities to watch:

• Houston
• Dallas
• Abilene
  
• Phoenix
• Memphis

Link here.

A Texas data center that the startup Crusoe is building for OpenAI has secured $11.6 billion in new funding commitments, expanding a site that is core to increasing the ChatGPT maker’s long-term computing capabilities.

The funding, a mixture of debt and equity, will expand the data center to eight buildings from two and increase the total amount secured for the project to $15 billion, Crusoe said. Both Crusoe and investment firm Blue Owl Capital are contributing cash to the data center project as part of the latest financing.

The data center, which is slated for completion next year, is expected to be the largest used by OpenAI. Each of the buildings will run up to 50,000 Nvidia Blackwell chips, which are commonly used for training large language models.

The development of the Abilene site is a key step in reducing OpenAI’s reliance on Microsoft in the race to build the next generation of AI models. For years, the startup exclusively relied on Microsoft for its computing power, but grew frustrated that the tech giant wasn’t keeping up with demand. Last spring, it struck a deal with Oracle to use the Abilene site after receiving the signoff from Microsoft.

Longer term, OpenAI aims to build and operate its own network of data centers. In January, Chief Executive Sam Altman unveiled a $500 billion infrastructure project called Stargate alongside the Japanese tech investor SoftBank and cloud firm Oracle. OpenAI said at the time that it was evaluating sites across the country for Stargate, though details have so far been scarce.

From February 8, 2025: 

Abilene, Texas, link here, this is what we know so far:

Oracle founder and CTO Larry Ellison, who was at the announcement with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son, said the first Stargate data centers are under construction in Abilene, Texas, according to businessinsider.com.

"We've been working with OpenAI for a while and Masa for a while.

The data centers are actually under construction — the first of them are under construction in Texas," Ellison said at the announcement.

"Each building is a half-million sq. ft. There are 10 buildings currently being built, but that will expand to 20 and other locations beyond the Abilene location, which is our first location."

Other details about Stargate are sketchy, according to businessinsider.com, although registration forms filed with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation matching Ellison's description of Stargate offer some insight.

The development is registered as "Project Ludicrous" at an address attached to the Lancium Clean Campus, according to businessinsider.com.

That's a 1,000-acre site in Abilene owned by energy tech company Lancium. Project Ludicrous' owner is listed as Abilene DC 1 LLC, an affiliate of data center development startup Crusoe. According to Texas state comptroller's records, Oracle occupies the data center owned by Abilene DC 1 LLC at the Lancium Clean Campus in Abilene.

Was this all foreshadowed back in July, last year? Link here. Note the byline for this story, San Francisco. That's incredibly interesting.

This Is Just One AI Data Center -- $30 Billion In Nvidia Chips For One Data Center -- May 21, 2025

Locator: 48670AI.
Locator: 48670NVDA.

Link here.

AI is tracked here.

Climate Backlash Gaining Steam -- Trump Is Only Into His First 200 Days -- May 21, 2025

Locator: 48669GLOBALWARMING.

Updates

May 26, 2025: as long as they're still arguing about it, it tells me this is not an issue about which I have to be concerned.

Two links:

• Greenland -- surprising rebound in mass;
• ocean to rise 0.3 inches over ten years; 3 inches over 100 years; link here;

Original Post 

Link here.

This sort of reminds me of the fracking ceramics story. One day it was there; then suddenly they disappeared.

This Is Target-Specific -- And I Don't Think It's Necessarily DEI-Related -- May 21, 2025

Locator: 48668TGT.

Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

 Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
  
• Longer version here.  

 *****************************
Target

Updates

May 23, 2025: dismal earnings amid DEI "headwinds" and now says two C-suite somen leaders are on their way out. Link here.

Original Post

 If Target is just one of two or three options and more convenient in terms of location, it beats out its rivals. But on an even playing field, equally convenient in location with two or three competitors, Target would generally be the third choice for most consumers. 

Compared to Walmart:

• many fewer SKUs in grocery, and certainly in general merchandise
• checkout convenience experience much, much better in Walmart
• in Target, if you can't find it, go to Walmart;
• in Walmart, if you can't find it, you don't need it;
• higher prices across the board and significantly higher for some products.
• Target parking lots much, much nicer than Walmarts
• many Walmarts also co-located with service stations; automobile servicing

Compared to Albertson's, Krogers:

• many fewer SKUs for grocery items
• their focus is grocery, not general merchandise, and it shows

Compared to HEB:

• no comparison
• my hunch: if an HEB opens near an existing Target in Texas, foot traffic in the latter will collapse

Earnings, link here:

All of this needs to be fact-checked.

EPS: $1.31 vs $1.60 (adjusted); non-adjusted were much better and beat;
guidance, full year, downgraded

• could be as low as $7 (for the full year)
• had been trending toward nearly $10 (for the full year)

Question: is Target a regional retail operation, or is it even worse than that, a single-state operation where it's governor is a poster child for DEI? With regard to DEI, I don't think consumers care. Consumers look for product availability, prices, and check-out convenience.

EV Manufacturers Hitting The Sweet Spot -- "Fake EVs" -- May 21, 2025

Locator: 48667EVS.

This is why manufacturers are switching to "fake EVs": links everywhere. 

GM, F: what will it cost to convert EV manufacturing facilities to "fake EV" manufacturing facilities? Back to ICE vehicles with wheel-mounted electric engines and a small battery?

Electrified vehicles: 

Choices:

• HEV
• PHEV
• EV
• sweet spot for manufacturers and consumers: HEVs and PHEVs
• Toyota's RAV4: all models will now be electrified: HEVs and PHEVs; no pure EVs; link here.
• the top-selling SUV in the United States
  
• for purists, HEVs and PHEVs are "fake" EVs but consumers don't care; they're getting better mileage with downside.
  

Exhibit A: Honda. Link here.

Pipeline Expansion For Permian-To-Corpus -- May 21, 2025

Locator: 48666B.

Toyota: Stout?

Health insurance: if not mandated by the US government, health insurance plans under no pressure to pay for something. Think Covid-19 vaccines. US government will severely limit recommendations for Covid-19 vaccinations; recommendations: limit Covid-19 to those 65 and over (Medicare) and those with underlying medical conditions.

Power generation: as an investor, I'm not sure what to do with this information, link here. Ultimately it's good for the fossil fuel industry -- coal, LNG, NG, and oil -- but short term, utilities could be in deep trouble. Highly regulated, high CAPEX, slow to respond.

 

************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $62.57.

New wells:

• Thursday, May 22, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 350 for the year,
• 41145, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 5E,
• 40499, conf, Oasis, Lee S 5201 21-8 2B,
• Wednesday, May 21, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 348 for the year,
• 41041, conf, XTO, Lizette State 21X-16AXD,
• 25073, conf, Grayson Mill, Sand Creek State 153-96-16-10H,

RBN Energy: Gray Oak expansion helping to ease Permian-to-Corpus crude oil congestion. Archived.

The pipelines carrying crude oil from the Permian Basin in West Texas to the Corpus Christi area have been as jammed as an urban highway on the Friday before Memorial Day weekend. The Gray Oak Pipeline, the largest from the Permian to Corpus, has just completed the 80-Mb/d first phase of a planned two-phase expansion that will add a total of 120 Mb/d of capacity. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss what this project means for pipeline congestion and crude exports out of Corpus and nearby Ingleside. 

First, let’s offer a quick refresher on the state of the pipelines from the Permian to Corpus Christi. As we’ve frequently discussed in the RBN blogosphere, the Permian Basin has experienced rapid growth in crude oil production and now accounts for more than half of all U.S. output. As shown in Figure 1 below, there are four large pipelines that transport crude oil from the Permian to the Corpus Christi area — Cactus I (blue line), Cactus II (teal line), EPIC Crude (yellow line) and Gray Oak (green line) — which (as of April) collectively provide 2.64 MMb/d of capacity.

Figure 1. Permian-to-Corpus Crude Oil Pipelines. Source: RBN

That brings us to the subject of today’s blog, Gray Oak, an 850-mile crude oil pipeline system that originates from multiple points in West Texas (see Figure 2 below). The pipeline started up with a capacity of 900 Mb/d shortly before crude oil demand cratered as the pandemic hit in 2020. In response to COVID, Permian producers shut in a significant amount of production, but output from the basin quickly rebounded and it didn’t take long for Gray Oak to add volumes — its flows ramped up throughout 2020. Note that it is common for new pipelines to gain volumes from old pipelines as take-or-pay commitments are typical on new pipelines — meaning you pay for the capacity regardless of whether you use it. As discussed in our weekly Crude Oil Permian report, Gray Oak has long operated at high utilization rates, which means nearly every available barrel of capacity is spoken for on what is now a 980-Mb/d pipeline. Its recently completed 80-Mb/d expansion originates at Crane, TX, and flows to Corpus Christi and Ingleside, where it supports crude exports at Enbridge’s Ingleside Energy Center (EIEC; pink square in Figure 2). According to the recently published quarterly edition of our Crude Voyager report, EIEC accounted for just over 30% of total Gulf Coast crude oil exports in Q1 2025 — the highest share among all terminals. It also set daily and quarterly export records.