Thursday, January 17, 2019

Getting Cold In New England? -- January 17, 2019

From ISO New England:

This was from a reader two nights ago, just a reminder:
Last night the Pilgrim nuke plant in Massachusetts started dropping output and now, according to the site, is only operating at 26% capacity.
That should stress the region's generating ability as this cold front moves in.
From wiki:
Pilgrim Station produces about 14% of the electricity generated in Massachusetts. On October 13, 2015, plant owners announced that it would close by June 1, 2019, citing "market conditions and increased costs," which would have included tens of millions of dollars of necessary safety upgrades.

Thirteen New Permits; Fourteen Permits Renewed; Three DUCs Completed -- January 17, 2019

Wow! Unleaded regular gasoline down to $1.74/gallon in many service stations a mile or so from the highway; along the highway, about $2.05/gallon. 

Russia: can't cut production quickly -- oilprice. They can't cut their production due to winter cold and geological conditions, but I assume they could cut their exports if they had to. Just saying.

Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:

Active Rigs68583849157

Thirteen new permits:
  • Operators: Enerplus (5); XTO (4); Newfield (3); Lime Rock Resources
  • Fields: Eagle Nest (Dunn); Haystack Butte (McKenzie); South Tobacco Garden (McKenzie); Cabernet (Dunn)
  • Comments: Enerplus has permits for a 5-well National Park (Yellowstone/Everglades/Shiloh/Yosemite/Isle Royal) pad in lot 2, section 2-148-95; XTO has permits for 4-well Skarpsno Federal pad in 20-149-97; Newfield has permits for a 3-well Sturgeon pad in 7-150-99; and Lime Rock Resources has a permit for a new Kary well in 25-144-97; there are four other Kary wells in this drilling unit -- none of them are particularly noteworthy;
Three permits canceled:
  • Newfield: three Sturgeon permits in McKenzie County (see above, new permits)
Fourteen permits renewed:
  • MRO (5): a Stillwell, a State Loland, a State Willard, a Coah, and a Mathias permit, all in Dunn County 
  • Resource Energy Can-Am (4): two Beetles; a Charger, and an Odyssey, all in Divide County
  • Petro-Hunt (2): two Clark Griswold Federal permits, both in McKenzie County
  • Nine Point Energy: a Novak permit in McKenzie County
  • Newfield: a Gariety permit in McKenzie County
  • Lime Rock Resources: an Emil Veverka permit in Dunn County
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 35029, 693, Lime Rock Resources, Scott 3-7-6H-143-95, Murphy Creek, t11/18; cum 9K after 16 days;
  • 34752, 276, Lime Rock Resources, Schneider 12-34-27H-143-96L, Fayette, t11/18; bcum 4K after 12 days;
  • 34751, 403, Lime Rock Resources, Schneider 11-33-28H-143-96, Fayette, t11/18; cum 3K after 9 days;

January 17, 2019 -- Non-Bakken Notes -- Why Is Saudi Failing At Solar? Because The Numbers Don't Work

Solar: the numbers just don't work. Now this: solar investment plunges amid panel glut -- oilprice.
Global spending on solar energy declined by almost a quarter last year to US$130.8 billion, mainly on the back of a regulatory policy overhaul in China that led to an oversupply of solar panels, driving prices down. This, in turn, resulted in an 8-percent slide in overall renewable energy investments to US$332 billion, data from a new report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance has shown.
China took markets by surprise in June last year by announcing that it would not issue approvals for any new solar power installations in 2018 and would also cut the feed-in tariff subsidy that has been a major driver of the solar business in the country that accounts for as much as 50 percent of capacity.
Seems like a "mixed" story. Investment -- actual dollars spent -- is down but that's because panels are so cheap. One would think that solar panel installations would increase.

Then this:
as global energy demand grew, so did the consumption of fossil fuels. This effectively offset the gains in carbon emissions reductions achieved through the growing use of alternative energy sources.
Saudi Arabia -- Solar Energy -- The Numbers Just Don't Work

Solar: from Bloomberg at the end of last year (2018): 
Over the past six years, the Saudis have announced investments of more than $350 billion aimed at making the sun-drenched kingdom the, well, Saudi Arabia of renewable energy.
But virtually no construction has begun, and with crude more than doubling from early 2016 to this October, the Saudis’ commitment to renewable energy has wavered.
In 2012, the Kingdom introduced a $109 billion solar program intended to generate a third of its electricity from renewable energy by 2032. Two years ago, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced a plan to wean the kingdom from its dependency on oil exports by building 210 gigawatts of solar capacity, or more than 20 percent of today’s worldwide renewable energy output.
Last year, the government said that by 2023 the country can generate 10 percent of its power from solar and wind plants, at a projected cost of $50 billion. And in March, the crown prince announced a $200 billion agreement with Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp. to build enough solar capacity to triple the kingdom’s current electric output. 
The crown prince insists the renewable energy initiative is still on, and in October he told Bloomberg he expects 4 gigawatts of solar capacity by 2021, about 5 percent of the country’s electrical output.
“We have finalized the structure of the solar investment,” the crown prince said. Construction will begin “somewhere around mid-2019.”
On paper, at least, the Saudis’ ambitions make sense. The kingdom is bathed in sunlight, with fewer than 45 cloudy days per year on average. Blanketing the country’s vast empty spaces with solar panels could theoretically generate power equivalent to the Saudis’ proven oil reserves of 266 million barrels in just two years. [I think if this were true, the Saudis would be doing ... except ... the cost....]
But the Saudis today get three-fifths of their electricity from oil, burning as much as 1 million barrels of crude per day in power plants—which makes sense only if you’re unconcerned about climate change and you’re not paying market prices.
Tesla: cutting costs. From Reuters:
Tesla Inc's customer referral incentive plan will end on Feb. 1, the electric carmaker's Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk tweeted on Thursday, citing costs.
Apple: cutting costs. From TheStreet:
Following a post-holiday slump and failing to sell as many iPhones as forecast, Apple Inc. Apple CEO Tim Cook "held a meeting with employees, there was a Q and A session, and he disclosed -- after asking if there would be a hiring freeze -- saying that there would be a reduction in new hires," reporter Mark Gurman told Bloomberg TV. Gurman, who covered the news, said that it wasn't clear which divisions would cut down on hiring, but did say that Apple hires "thousand of people" when asked how many people Apple picks up on a quarterly or annual basis.
Ford: asking for patience. From Bloomberg:
Ford Motor Co. boss Jim Hackett took on Wall Street’s criticism that he’s moved too slowly and shared too little about restructuring plans, asking analysts to believe in his “thoughtful” approach while posting profit that fell short of estimates.
Investors didn’t buy it. Ford’s shares fell steadily all day, ending down 6.2 percent, the biggest drop since a year ago, when the automaker delivered disappointing results.

Natural Gas Inventories -- US -- EIA -- January 17, 2019

Jobs -- link here --
  • weekly jobs claims fall more than expected -- CNBC
  • prior: 216,000
  • forecast: 220,000
  • latest: 213,000
  • not only less than expected, but actually decreased
  • from CNBC:
The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week. The data pointed to sustained labor market strength that should continue to underpin the economy. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased to 213,000 for the week ended Jan. 12, the Labor Department said. [More at the linked site regarding the government shutdown and furloughed workers.]
 Natural gas fill / withdrawal:

Cooking With Natural Gas

Christmas Dinner with the apartment complex manager.

Explaining The "Emptiness" Of Activity -- January 17, 2019


Later, 11:50 a.m. CT: folks have noticed other areas with little activity where one might expect more. From a reader:
In section 19-149-92, another example: only one well, Enerplus Knuckle, #22238. This well was drilled back in 2012 and is a very, very good well. This location STILL does not have power or gas lines. Apparently easement problems.
The well:
  • 22238, 878, Enerplus, Knuckle 149-92-19C-18H, Heart Butte, t7/12; cum 404K 11/18;
The Original Post

 It seems like I've posted this before but can't recall.

The NDIC map:

The google map:

Crazy Like A Fox -- January 17, 2019

When I was growing up, I was introduced to that phrase, "crazy like a fox." That phrase flashed across my mind while updating the daily note today (the daily note is currently unavailable in accordance with the blog's guidelines).

Hold that thought -- "crazy like a fox." I might come back to that later. It's all politics, nothing to do with the Bakken.

On another political note: Mitch McConnell won't entertain any US House "money" bill that has the fingerprints of Occasional Cortex on it. 

The Halliday Wells

Tier 3?

I really don't know but look how far east / southeast the Halliday wells are. See this post.

The graphic:

The wells: not all of these wells are in the area of interest in the graphic --
  • 38615, conf, permitted 10/13/21; Hunt, Halliday 146-93-25-36H 3, NWNW 25-146-93; 275 FNL and 690 FWL
  • 38616, conf, permitted 10/13/21; Hunt, Halliday 146-93-25-36H 4, NWNW 25-146-93; 275 FNL and 720 FWL
  • 35361, 809, Hunt, Werner, Halliday 146-92-19-18H-6, 19-146-92; Werner, t7/19; cum 10K in 15 days; cum 221K 8/21;
  • 35360, 1,690, Hunt, Werner, Halliday 146-92-19-18H-5, 19-146-92; Werner, t7/19; cum 24K in 21 days; cum 221K 8/21;
  • 35359, 1,528, Hunt, Werner, Halliday 146-92-19-18H-4, 19-146-92; Werner, t7/19; cum 18K in 21 days; cum 202K 8/21;
  • 35164, 736, Hunt, Werner, Halliday 146-92-19-18H-3, 30-146-92; Werner, t7/19; cum 14K in 14 days; cum 271K 8/21;
  • 34979, 1,651, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Halliday 146-93-12-1H-3, 13-146-93; Wolf Bay, t12/18; cum 210K 7/19; cum 462K 8/21;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 34978, 1,445, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Halliday 146-93-12-1H 4, 13-146-93; Wolf Bay, t12/18; cum 62K 7/19;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 34913, 1,230, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Halliday 146-93-11-2H 4, 11-146-93; Wolf Bay, t1/19; cum 138K 7/19;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 34912, 1,134, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Halliday 146-93-13-1H 1, 13-146-93; Wolf Bay, t7/19; cum 25K 7/19:
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 34911, 2,137, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Halliday 146-93-13-1H 2, 13-146-93; Wolf Bay, t6/19; cum 31K 7/19;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 34869, 1,196, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Halliday 146-93-11-2H, 24-146-93; Wolf Bay, t10/18; cum 167K 7/19:
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 34868, 932, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-11-2H-5, Wolf Bay, t11/18; cum 156K 7/19:
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 29794, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-25-36H-3,
  • 29651, 12-146-93, Hunt, Wolf Bay, PNC,
  • 29650, 12-146-93, Hunt, Wolf Bay, PNC,
  • 22824, 11-146-93, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Bakken, Halliday 3-11-2H, 590, t8/12; cum 325K 3/19;
  • 22604, 30-146-92, Hunt, Werner, Bakken, Halliday 2-30-31H, 170, t9/12; cum 96K 3/19;
  • 22402, 10-145-93, Hunt, Lake Ilo, Bakken, Halliday 2-15-22H, 324, t7/12; cum 183K 3/19;
  • 21576, 13-146-93, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Bakken, Halliday 2-12-1H 1, IA/454, t3/12; cum 358K 3/19; inactive as of 9/18;
  • 21344, 22-146-93, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Bakken, Halliday 2-11-2H, 430, t1/12; cum 319K 3/19; jump in production;
  • 21607, 19-146-92, Hunt, Werner, Bakken, Halliday 2-19-18H, 1,122, t3/15; cum 220K 3/19;
  • 20861,  25-146-93, Hunt, Werner, Bakken, Halliday 2-25-36H, 599, t12/11; cum 181K 3/19; small jump in production;
  • 20246, 19-146-92, Hunt, Werner, Bakken, Halliday 1-19-18H 1, 851, t101/11; cum 354K 7/19;
  • 20180, 13-145-93, Hunt, Lake Ilo, Bakken, Halliday 1-13-24H 1, 327, t4/11; cum 124K 3/19;
  • 20027, 30-146-92, Hunt, Werner, Bakken, Halliday 1-30-31H 1, 528, t11/11; cum 163K 3/19; recently off line; looks like it's coming back on line;
  • 19786, 13-146-93, Hunt, Wolf Bay, Bakken, Halliday 1-12-1H 1, 843, t5/11; cum 445K 3/19; huge well with nice jump in production, 1/19;
  • 19735, 19-146-92, Hunt, Bakken, PNC,
  • 19589, 25-146-93, Werner, Hunt, Halliday 1-25-36H 1, 699, t3/11; cum 217K 3/19;
  • 19401,15-145-93, Lake Ilo, Hunt, Halliday 1-15-22H 1, 415, t1/11; cum 228K 3/19;
  • 19094, 36-146-93, Werner, Hunt, Bakken, PNC,
  • 18977, 11-146-93, Wolf Bay, Hunt, Bakken, t2010, IA, cum 541K 3/19; off line as of 8/18; now back on line and a great well, 3/19;
  • 9080, 16-144-92, Halliday field, Texaco, Duperow, t1982, PA, cum 32K
  • 9595, 15-144-92, Halliday field, Getty Oil, Duperow, t1982, dry,
Disclaimer: this post "under construction." There will be typographical and factual errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

The Daily Note

February 9, 2019, T+38, day 15 of open border negotiations and amnesty. Pending. I'm sure something will come up.
February 8, 2019, T+37, day 14 of open border negotiations and amnesty. How serious are the Dems about AGW. Nancy Pelosi establishes a small, inconsequential sub-committee on "climate change"; populates it with junior representatives; and, does not place the #1 AGW advocate (Occasional-Cortex) on the sub-committee.

February 7, 2019, T+36, day 13 of open border negotiations and amnesty. Virginia Lt Gov: we must believe the woman's accusations. And the Dems complain about "Exec Time" on Trump's daily schedule.

February 6, 2019, T+35, day 12 of open border negotiations and amnesty.

  • Fox News (11.1 million) + Fox (4.2 million) = 15.3 million
    NBC, CBS, ABC  = 19.7 million

See February 3, 2019, note. Considering how much time President Trump's schedule is devoted to "executive time," he is incredibly efficient, getting more done in two years than most presidents get done in eight years. And why was this a headline story. The Catholic Church and anti-Semitism was well documented in WWII. Link here.

February 5, 2019, T+34, day 11 of open border negotiations and amnesty. The "Draft Beto" event in California drew six people. I'm blogging at a local McDonald's. They are airing MSNBC. I did not know that was allowed in Texas. Oh, that's right -- I'm near Dallas tonight and I'm in Beto country. Wow, I cannot believe how intelligent those millennials on MSNBC are. This story has legs although the mainstream media is desperately trying to change the narrative:
Link here to the rest of the story.
February 4, 2019, T+33, day 10 of open border negotiations and amnesty. MSNBC with "hour-long special" slamming former Starbucks CEO Harold Schultz -- that tells me "they" are really, really worried. Meanwhile, this past weekend, making America great:
February 3, 2019, T+32, day 9 of open border negotiations and amnesty. They call Trump an extremist. Rank-and-file Dems are jumping on the a) fourth-trimester abortion bandwagon; and, b) 90% tax on the "wealthy." I guess the definition of "extremist" is in the eye of the beholder. Met with "Meet the Press," CBS. No legal requirement to release Mueller's report; it's a DOJ report that reports to the Executive office. After years (decades?) of calls to request his tax filings, they have never been released. Congress, of course, will sue to have the documents released, but the US Supreme Court will not take the case, and if it does, will follow constitutional law. Meanwhile, Trump can say he will release the document but due to national security concerns -- remember, this has to do with Russian collusion -- he needs to ensure that sensitive/classified national security information is not released. Perhaps he will release it after the 2020 election. LOL. Assuming, of course, Mueller even completes his investigation by that date. [Later: it appears I'm wrong. President Trump says he has no control over whether the Mueller report is released. Whether the report is released rests with the DOJ.]

February 2, 2019, T+31, day 8 of open border negotiations and amnesty. Scott Adams calls this "fake news." Apparently he is one of the few watching THAT movie. Again, the governor reiterated that there would be no restrictions on infanticide / fourth-trimester abortions if that's what the mother wants.

Later: if you can't figure out what's going on in the screenshot below, you weren't paying attention during the Kavanaugh hearings.

February 1, 2019, T+30, day 7 of open border negotiations and amnesty. Actually, they have only met for five days. Trump is sending more troops. I think his plan will work. Brilliant.

January 31, 2019, T+29, day 6 of open border negotiations and amnesty. Spokesman for Kamala Harris says she misspoke -- she's willing to work with those 177 million Americans that have private insurance. The current debate has morphed from Roe vs Wade to infanticide and fourth-trimester abortions. Regardless of what side of the issue one is on, the arguments are quite interesting. I won't listen to "emotional" arguments, but philosophical/moral/theological arguments are most interesting. The best emotional argument for infanticide/fourth-trimester abortions was used during WWII by those who were aware of the events in Germany but refused to get involved: I am neither Jewish nor German, so there is no reason for me to be involved. I think "Lucky Lindy," perhaps the most famous American at the time was a strong Nazi supporter, would have used that argument. 

January 30, 2019, T+28, day 5 of open border negotiations and amnesty. Tea leaves: Kamala Harris is done as a serious candidate. Unless CNN can spin her story and help her recover after her ObamaCare comment and campaign promise of "Medicare for all her candidacy is over. O-V-E-R. Seniors greatly outnumber the number of millennials. And unlike the millennials, seniors vote.

January 29, 2019, T+27, day 4 of open border negotiations and amnesty. Global warming is failing us. Polar vortex hits the US; global warming unable to moderate the temperatures. We might see coldest temperatures recorded in 20 - 50 years. Well said:

January 28, 2019, T+26, day 3 of open border negotiations and amnesty. Apparently Tom Brokaw stepped in it also. When will these guys ever learn?

January 27, 2019, T+25, day 2 of open border negotiations and amnesty. We learn that MSNBC's "Morning Joe" broadcasts from Florida six months a year to escape paying Connecticut state taxes.

January 26, 2019, T+24, day 1 of temporary government opening of the partial government shutdown. Since the departure of General (ret) Mattis, have there been any additional departures?

January 25, 2019, T+23, day 35 of the partial government shutdown. I don't know if walls are immoral (the Vatican has a huge wall) but I do know that a country as "rich" as the United States holding federal workers hostage is incredibly immoral. Nancy Pelosi, a multi-millionaire taking a photo-op at a local food kitchen for those working-without-pay federal employees is incredibly immoral. I hope President Trump does not stoop to that. This is a Friday; this is the second paycheck that furloughed workers will miss. Later: President Trump mentions that a deal has been reached to open the government for three weeks -- will get us through the Super Bowl. Based on his speech, it's my feeling that Trump got what he want; did not cave. Pelosi et al will say Trump caved; that's fine. Based on what I heard Trump say, I would argue he did not cave. He is still one of the few adults in the room.

January 24, 2019, T+22, day 34 of the partial government shutdown. There were two arguments against "the wall": a) too expensive; b) immoral. Now that it is agreed by everyone that the shutdown has cost more than what Trump was asking for, that argument becomes moot, and at some point will be used to promote funding for the wall. The second argument had no legs once it was revealed that the Vatican had one of the biggest/highest walls of any wall in the world -- not the longest: China has bragging rights for the longest wall. Both the Democrat bill and the GOP bill failed to pass in the US Senate but there does seem to be some negotiating going on. Publicly Pelosi seems unwilling to give anything on the wall; Trump is willing to give something. 

January 23, 2019, T+21, day 33 of the partial government shutdown. While the US House is pre-occupied with the inanities of Occasional Cortex, the US Senate will move ahead with confirmation hearings for 51 Trump judicial picks. It looks like I'm wrong. I thought the narrative would move from "the wall" to "right-sizing the government" but it now appears the far right could lose big time. There is talk of "the wall" morphing to "all-out amnesty." In exchange for "the wall," Jared and team are willing to consider green cards for DACA/dreamers. It's the right thing to do but only if the wall is secure and laws are changed regarding "one foot on US soil" and "anchor babies."

Militarizing The TSA
Posted January 21, 2019

Based on the number of federal civilian (non-uniformed) employees, Homeland Security is bigger than the US Air Force, almost the same size as the US Navy, and not much smaller than the US Army. For round numbers, there are about 200,000 civilian employees in each of those "agencies": 200,000 civilians in each of the USAF, USN, USA, and Homeland Security.  Homeland Security is literally a drawer-full of acronyms and agencies, everything from the TSA to SWAT teams. The TSA has, again in round numbers, 60,000 civilians. The US Coast Guard has, again in round numbers, 90,000 folks -- that's the entire workforce for the US Coast Guard.

Right now, about 7 percent of TSA screeners are calling in sick. If the number goes over 15%, there will be crisis in US airports. Later: about two hours after posting that I noted that The Boston Globe was reporting that 10% of TSA screeners called in sick on Sunday, January 20, 2019.

Could a case be made for militarizing the TSA screeners?

TSA and the Airlines
Posted January 20, 2019

Up until a day or so ago I was concerned about the backlogs at airports due to TSA shortages. It is being widely reported that TSA workers are working without pay. True. I assume they can apply for unemployment benefits, but I don't know. If not, surely that can be rectified. But let's say the issue becomes problematic. First of all, there is no requirement that airports use federal employees/the TSA. At regional airports around the country, non-TSA, non-federal agencies provide security at airports. If "it" becomes an issue, the airlines will step in to insure their own security. [It's my understanding that some airlines at some US locations have their own customs/passport control.] 

And finally, it's  my impression that the Israeli military manages security at Israeli airports. The US won't let airport security fail. At last resort, they will call in the military. I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't already plans on the table for the US military to provide "TSA" security if needed.

The "Real Wall"
Posted January 20, 2019

The "real wall."

Posted by Rob Port over at The Dickinson Press.
Consider this: “We are in a situation that come this fall, North Dakota will be without any full-time federal judges,” a reader who also happens to be a practicing attorney told me this week.
Former District Court Judge Ralph Erickson was nominated by President Donald Trump to serve on the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals.
The U.S. Senate confirmed him to that position on a 95-1 vote in September of 2017.
He took office there, and vacated his District Court office, in October of 2017.
That’s more than a year ago, and yet to date there has been no nomination made for his replacement.
President Trump: "clever like a fox." 

All those immigration cases? Backlog for years. Sure, lot of backlogs elsewhere, but the "scheduling judge" will prioritize cases. And:
  • more nuisance, frivolous cases will fade away
  • more cases will be settled out-of-court
  • district attorneys will work for more plea bargains
January 20, 2019

Even Chris thinks Shelosi has thrown the Dreamers under the bus.

The Wall
Posted January 20, 2019

Presidents are change agents. Change agents look out 20 to 30 years. With regard to "the wall" how far out was Trump looking?

My guess: for Trump, to shut down the government was a tactical strategy. The wall itself is part of a multi-decade strategy. The longer this plays out, the more the tactical strategy looks like a long-term strategic ploy.

The far right absolutely, positively does not want any compromise on illegal immigrants, even those who were brought here decades ago and are now young adults: Dreamers who have known no other country than the US.

With regard to the Dreamers, President Obama was correct: some remedy was needed. He only wrote a memo; he expected Congress to "follow through." Congress did not.
The far right absolutely, positively does not want any pathway to legality (much less citizenship) for the hundreds of folks in the convoys from Guatemala and Honduras. 

It appears that a "physical wall" will help stem the tide but it won't solve the problem. 

"Clever like a fox." With the partial government shutdown the backlog for the immigration courts is now measured in years, not months, and more likely, soon to be measured in decades. The recent arrivals will be in limbo for the rest of their lives. 

Meanwhile, if the Dreamers thought they were close under the Obama administration, even if an "open border" candidate were elected president in 2020, the adjudication of each Dreamer application has now been lengthened by another four to five years. 

Trump was willing to fund a huge number of immigration courts and judges to manage the backlog but his opponents were unwilling to work with him. The backlogs will end up grinding the entire immigration process to a halt. [Later: that is now being reported "everywhere" -- the stalemate has actually made the problem much, much worse.]

Grinding the legal apparatus to a halt is the "real wall." 

"Clever like a fox." Another note. Another analogy. You are being attacked by a pack of hounds. What to do? Throw them a bone. What better way to slow down a legislative body held by one's opponents than to throw them a bone -- "the wall," in this case -- to fight over. While Shelosi and the House are fighting over this one bone, a lot of other initiatives are simply f(l)oundering.  

I think Shelosi knows that; that's why she has tried to stop efforts to impeach the president. [Later: there is now a report that many of the newly elected young Democrats are not keen on a kangaroo court on the way to impeachment.] Pelosi knows that the impeachment process will bring the US House of Representatives to a halt. Unlike Nixon, Trump won't resign. Unlike Clinton, the process won't happen quickly. Trump has an army of lawyers; he has experience in this area; he knows how to fight. So, if the US House moves to impeachment, it takes up the entire political agenda for the next year. And something tells me the American public will not be impressed.
I think Shelosi knows that. 

By the way, I'm still waiting for the "real" scuttlebutt on why Mueller went public for the first time explicitly saying the media got it wrong. [Later: Buzzfeed has doubled down, standing by their story.]

Fake News? 
Posted January 18, 2019

From The Atlantic:
The basic theory—explained to me between weary sighs and defeated shrugs—goes like this: Washington is at an impasse that looks increasingly unbreakable. President Donald Trump is dug in; so is Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Democrats have public opinion on their side, but the president is focused on his conservative base. For a deal to shake loose in this environment, it may require a failure of government so dramatic, so shocking, as to galvanize public outrage and force the two parties back to the negotiating table. 
Remember: The Atlantic has "IMPEACH" across the cover of its current issue.

I'm not convinced that the "Democrats have public opinion on their side." I think The Atlantic predicted Hillary to win, also, citing polls. In fact, the only major national poll that I was aware of that consistently had Trump out-polling Hillary was the ultra-liberal Los Angeles Times.

I don't think the president is focused on his conservative base. It's a Venn diagram at best.

It would be more accurate to say the President is focused on keeping a campaign promise. This, apparently, is something not often seen in Washington. At least not since the days of ... Abraham Lincoln?

I also don't think he's dug in. He's been in the White House ever since things came to a halt waiting to negotiate. The House Leader has been to Hawaii; the House Dems took a junket to Puerto Rico; and, the latter were about to party in Brussels (which in and of itself seems odd) -- all while the partial government shutdown continues.

The Speaker of the House has disinvited the President -- I don't think that happened even during the darkest days of the US Civil War, WWI, WWII, the Korean War, the Vietnam War.

One doesn't have to be dug in when one party doesn't even want to see you. It takes two to tango. 

By the way, I posted earlier, "crazy like a fox." If I have time this weekend, I will expand on that.

The market, by the way, is driven by "fear" and "greed." The market has been on a tear since the beginning of the year and seems to be getting stronger as the impasse drags on (the Dow is up another 330 points as we speak) . That suggests to me that, although "aides in Washington" may be afraid, the market certainly is not.

That -- the market being so strong -- is actually something to be afraid of, I suppose.

My hunch is that if there is one data point both sides are looking at it would be the stock market. That was certainly being suggested by talking heads a few weeks ago when the market was tanking. 

January 22, 2019, T+20, day 32 of the partial government shutdown:

I have some house-keeping to do.

The 116th US Congress convened January 3, 2019. That should be day 1 of the new series. I will have to go back and re-number "the daily note."

So, re-numbering here, January 17, 2019, is day 15 of the new Congress.

It's hard to believe the partial government shutdown is soon to reach a full month. It seems it is receding into the background. So little news is coming out regarding the partial government shutdown, Ms Pelosi had to get the subject back into "headline news" by dis-inviting the president suggesting she can't guarantee his safety in her US House of Represenatives. 


If this is AGW, give me more.

Today the high in our area will be 61 degrees; tomorrow, the forecast is for a high of 68 degrees.

But then this weekend -- an Arctic blast. Oh, well.

ISO New England

Link here. Doing well. The morning spike stayed well below $100/MW -- spiked to about $80/MW. Percentage of coal: 4%; renewables at 10%.

The Daily Note

The New Congress
Day 23 - present
Day 1 -- Day 22 

After The Midterms (partial govt shutdown)
Day 1 -- 57: from the election to the new Congress

Iran Sanctions
Days 67 -- 85

Fight's Back On: Let The Trade Wars Begin (A Bust)

Fight's On: Trump Exits "The Iran Deal" (A Win)
Fight's On: Let The Trade Wars Begin (A Bust)
The 38 Days Following The Schumer Shut-Down (A Bust)
The 2 Days of The Schumer Shut Down (A Bust)
The Last 65 Days of His First Term
Days 331 - 365
Days 301 - 330

The Trump Presidency (201 - 300)
The Third 100 Days
The Second 30 Days 
The First 30 Days

Between Election And Inauguration (1 - 100)
The Third 10 Days

EIA's Most Recent Energy Report Is Staggering -- January 17, 2019

12: US oil output to average 12 million bopd in 2019.
U.S. crude oil production will average 12.1 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2019 and 12.9 MMbpd in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.
That’s according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short-term energy outlook, which estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 MMbpd in 2018.
The EIA’s latest outlook forecasts that U.S. dry natural gas production will average 90.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) this year and 92.2 Bcf/d in 2020, with increases in the Appalachia and Permian regions “driv[ing] the forecast growth”. U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 83.3 Bcf/d in 2018, the EIA highlighted.
U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports are estimated to have fallen from an average of 3.8 MMbpd in 2017 to an average of 2.4 MMbpd in 2018, according to the EIA’s January outlook. The organization forecasts that net imports will continue to fall to an average of 1.1 MMbpd in 2019 and to less than 0.1 MMbpd in 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the EIA forecasts the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products, by about 0.9 MMbpd.
  • crude oil
    • this past year, 2018: US crude oil production averaged 10.9 million bopd
    • next year, 2019, the estimate: US crude oil production will average 12.1 million bopd
    • delta: 1.2 million bopd or an increase of 11% year-over-year
    • natural gas
    • this past year, 2018: US natural gas production averaged 83.3 bcfpd
    • next year, 2019, the estimate: US natural gas production will average 90.2 bcfpd 
    • delta: 6.9 bcfpd or an increase of more than 8% year-over-year
  • but look at this, US crude oil imports:
    • current US crude oil imports are averaging about 2.4 million bopd
    • next year, 2019, the estimate for US crude oil imports drops to an average of just over 1 million bopd, and,
    • then in 2020, the estimate for uS crude oil imports drops to less than 0.1 million bopd -- 0.1 million = 100,000 bopd -- a rounding error in global production of 100 million bopd
  • first thoughts
    • one almost wonders if that is a typo: less than 100,000 bopd in 2019
    • US crude oil imports include oil from Canada
    • what does this estimate say about imports from Canada
    • where is heavy oil for US refineries coming from, or will US refineries have switched over to all light, sweet oil with "no one" noticing
    • at 100,000 bopd, one can clearly say the US is 100% energy independent
  • my only conclusion: I must be misreading something
Prototype For Another Type Of Wall

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