Monday, November 5, 2018

The Daily Note -- Nothing About The Bakken

January 21, 2019, T+19, day 31 of the partial government shutdown: beta-male O'Rourke wondering out loud whether the US Constitution needs to be jettisoned certainly sounds like a dog whistle to those who want a revolution. Tone deaf? I understand completely why Mrs Pence wants to go back to teaching but the way in which she goes about it suggests she is very, very tone deaf. I don't know about "Mr." but it certainly seems Mrs Pence is out of her league in DC. The "second lady" going back to teaching art at a primary, private school? On the other hand, maybe this is her way to maintain her sanity while rowing on a boat in/on a sea of insanity.

January 20, 2019, T+18, day 30 of the partial government shutdown. I wrote earlier that Occasional-Cortex will have to get more and more outlandish to get the headlines, and here we are. She said that she will "run train" on the GOP:

To "run train," is a series of consecutive fornication acts on a single female (generally, but I suppose it could also be 'on' on male). Often, but not always, I suppose, the single female is seen as a willing partner in the activity. I pretty much doubt the GOP will be a willing partner in any Congressional "train." Just saying. And some folks are upset with a single line the president was said to have said decades ago in a locker room -- well before he was a public figure.

January 19, 2019, T+17, day 29 of the partial government shutdown. These folks are smiling: they are still getting a paycheck:


January 18, 2019, T+16, day 28 of the partial government shutdown.


January 17, 2019, T+15, day 27 of the partial government shutdown.

January 16, 2019, T+14, day 26 of the partial government shutdown --
This is going to be a fascinating story to follow. Both sides have dug themselves in so deep -- I assume Trump is waiting for some major event to occur -- like another successful plane hijacking -- to allow him to declare it a national emergency and then see if the Democrats/and 20 GOP Senators dare block a funding bill with funding for a wall.
It's possible a complete breakdown at the California border could have Governor Gavin Newsom himself declaring a state emergency. That is, of course, his worse nightmare. Other than coal energy.

January 15, 2019, T+13, day 25: in anticipation of open borders, Texas is starting to install minarets from which muezzins can call Muslims to prayer:




January 14, 2019, T+12, day 24: for the media wringing their hands over all the government employees on furlough -- I don't recall much media outcry when this was going on -- from April 5, 2013:

March Jobs Numbers: Horrendous. Labor Pool Is Lowest Since 1979 When Jimmy Carter Was President; The President's Response -- Raise Taxes; Memo to Chris -- Wake Up! Post-Mortems: No Mention Of The 800-Pound Gorilla -- ObamaCare



January 13, 2019, T+11, day 23: so there we are. Longest partial shutdown in history and it appears most Americans are unaware. About half of voters, or 47 percent, blame Trump for the shutdown, according to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll. A third of respondents blame Democrats in Congress, and 5 percent say it rests with congressional Republicans. Link here. The link is at the most liberal US newspaper.


January 12, 2019, T+10, day 22: now the longest "partial government" shutdown in history. 

January 11, 2019, T+9, day 21: now ties longest previous shutdown. Political theater. All congress needs to do is send a bill to Trump to veto; then see which of the 53 GOP US senators dare vote against Trump to override the veto. Two-thirds of 100 is 67 votes. There are 47 Democrats/independents that will vote to override Trump's veto. 67-47 = 20. The Dems would need to find 20 GOP senators to vote to override Trump's veto. In the most recent most liberal newspaper, the most "they" can find is a half dozen or so." A half dozen or so is eight. Link here

January 10, 2019, T+8, day 20: Beto AKA Nacho is beginning a college tour; so 1960s; I did not know he was a thrice-admitted felon; spent time in jail for burglary. Meanwhile, Trump to visit the southern border (Texas/Mexico) today.

January 9, 2019, T+7, day 19: California taxpayers can't afford health care insurance for their own families, but the governor will now advocate for free health care for illegal immigrants. Americans are generous to a fault. On another note, yet another dead body within the Hillary Clinton circle is reported. How many dead bodies does that make it for the Hillary team, starting with Vince Foster? Trump gives his oval office speech on "the wall."

January 8, 2019, T+6, day 18: a reader suggested that Pocahontas swigging beer on social media is as bad a stereotype of the native American as one could imagine.

January 7, 2019, T+5, day 17: government shutdown now tied with third longest -- the Obama/ObamaCare shutdown. Meanwhile, the MSM is talking the US into a mild recession. If so, the "Fed" owns it. 

January 6, 2019, T+4, day 16: why Occasional-Cortex will fail -- even mainstream Democrats don't want her. There are three parties in the US: far left, the Dems, and the GOP. Neither the Dems nor the GOP will let the far left win. Occasional-Cortex is now sucking all of the oxygen out of any room in which Bernie tries to talk.

January 5, 2019, T+3 of the new Congress, day 15 of the government shutdown: in a reply to a reader regarding the wall -- 
Agree completely, re: the wall.

When Lindsey Graham came out in support of Trump on the wall that spoke volumes.

I think it's agreed that if Trump folds on the wall, he loses his base. Was it Ann Coulter that has "baited" Trump by saying that Trump will "fold" on the fall? Brilliant strategy by Ann Coulter, if it was her. I forget.

I know I'm wrong on this, but I think the American public will be behind Trump on the wall; they won't support Pelosi on the wall. Schumer is #2 in the Senate so he's a non-player. Mitch O'Connell has said he won't advance any spending bills without funding for the wall.

I think it's Trump vs Pelosi on this issue. If he can frame it that way, he's won. Now that she says she is as an equal to the president, she has as much power as he does to fund the government.

The biggest problem for the mainstream media with regard to the "partial" shutdown of the government -- no photo ops, no live video. Nothing to excite viewers of the evening news.

And, we've been through "partial" government shutdowns so many times, the concept no longer frightens folks. And it turns out, the president can find funding to pay essential workers if need be, like paying the US Coast Guard.
January 4, 2019, T+2 of the new Congress, day 14 of the shutdown: Constitutional expert -- Pelosi says the US Constitution says she is the equal of the US president. LOL. But --

January 3, 2019, T+1, day 13: ah, yes, hits the target again --




**************************************************
57 Days Since The Mid-Terms
116th Congress Convenes

January 2, 2019, T+57, day 12: ah, yes, the 57 states of America.  Loser:


January 1, 2019, T+56: these are the days I see critical with regard to the government shutdown, day 11:
  • Monday, January 7, 2019, when the holidays are finally over for government workers
  • Sunday/Monday, January 20/21, 2019, when the new Democratic congress is sworn in
  • Tuesday, January 22, 2019, likely date of the State of the Union Address
  • Tuesday, January 29, 2019, the last Tuesday in January, 2019
December 31, 2018, T+55: Day 10 of the "partial government" shutdown, but in fact, most non-essential government workers would have had most of those days "off" anyway. The government shutdown only "gets serious" when we get to Monday, January 7, 2019. 

December 30, 2018, T+55: Day 9 of the "partial government" shutdown. Energy impacts remain minimal. The US House is on track to impeach President Trump. It will be interesting if the "partial government shutdown" and the impeachment process becomes intertwined. Something about baking a bear into a corner.

December 29, 2018, T+54: Day 8 of the "partial government" shutdown. 

December 28, 2018, T+53: Day 7 of the "partial government" shutdown. It's one thing for President Trump to tween this, but when I see Senator Lindsey Graham tweet this, it gets my attention. By the way, Nancy Pelosi is in Hawaii, which tells me this issue is "dead" until at least January 20, 2019.



December 27, 2018, T+52: Day 6 of the "partial government" shutdown.

December 26, 2018, T+51: after watching Pope Francis and Christmas Eve mass it's hard for me to take his lecturing on my values seriously. This is a man who took vows of poverty (I assume) and has truly failed to lay down the law on the sexual transgressions that have come to light over the past decade. Day 5 of the "partial government" shutdown. No urgency to solve the problem. My hunch: they will kick the can down the road until the new Congress is sworn in, January 20, 2019. As far as I know, it's in the hands of Congress. Congress has not sent the president a bill to sign. I assume they can send him a funding bill and if he vetoes it, they can override it with a veto. 

December 25, 2018, T+50: headlines suggest that Turkey is the big winner in light of the US pullout from Syria. Turkey will be the new "Islamic State." The Kurds are the big, big losers. This is monumental. Turkey will take the lead in the fight in the north; Saudi Arabia will be involved to the extent they can afford it. The Kurds, along with the US, destroyed ISIS. The Kurds hold Manbij which was an ISIS stronghold. The US met Turkish demands that the Kurds exit Manbij to prevent the Kurds from gaining access to the Mediterranean Sea. 

December 24, 2018, T+49: I've never seen such pageantry, gold, and wealth from a man who took vows of poverty. Wow. 


December 23, 2018, T+48: from twitter --



December 22, 2018, T+47: US ISIS envoy appointed by Obama; can't stand the heat; resigns. Day 1 of the "partial government" shutdown.


December 21, 2018, T+46: SecDef "Mad Dog" Mattis can't stand the heat; resigns. Congress refuses to send the president a funding bill. "Partial government" shutdown -- whatever that means.


December 20, 2018, T+45: McCain liked, and FBI knew it. The agency has the fingerprint proof. But the big story? The wall. It is said that Trump often makes his final decision based on whom he listens to last. One wonders if he will listen to his base. From the AP today.


December 19, 2018, T+44: like global warming, "the call for a wall" appears to be simply playing to the "base" and a "fund-raising" issue. Apparently it wasn't all that important. The delta between $5 billion (Trump) and $2 billion (Congress) is $3 billion. The cost of a B-2 bomber, according to a wiki source, $2.1 billion. Meanwhile, Trump will send $5 billion to Mexico to strengthen its southern wall; and another $5 billion in aid to "central America" to encourage Hondurans to stay home. 

December 18, 2018, T+43: it looks like Trump blinked on the wall.

December 17, 2018, T+42: government shutdown? LOL. The US government shuts down every year around Christmas - Hannukah - Kwanzaa - New Year's for two to four weeks. Even in the military, we stood down for two weeks except for "critical missions" and/or "mission-essential duties." But we pretty much shut down for two weeks. 

December 16, 2018, T+ 41: quiet.

December 15, 2018, T+ 40: quiet.

December 14, 2018, T+39: Trump's corrupt, turncoat lawyer sentenced to three years in prison. Will probably be out in 18 months with good behavior.

December 13, 2018, T+38: Mulvaney draws the short straw; will become acting Chief of Staff for president Trump;

December 12, 2018, T+37: Trump sets up Pelosi, Schumer in oval office.

December 11, 2018, T+36: France continues to burn.

December 10, 2018, T+35: quiet. Will last for a New York minute.

December 9, 2018, T+34: New England Patriots (NFL) get beat by one point in last twenty seconds.

December 8, 2018, T+33: Still no word from Macron? Meanwhile, in the White House, lots of changes being announced for the second half of the Trump's first term. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert is Trump's choice to succeed Nikki Haley as US ambassador to the United Nations, even as the White House moved to downgrade the job from a Cabinet-level position. Nauert, a former Fox News host who arrived at the State Department in 2017, would be a relatively inexperienced newcomer in one of the most high-profile positions in US diplomacy. Her nomination sets the stage for a potentially tough Senate confirmation hearing, where Democrats will likely grill Nauert on her qualifications for the position.

December 8, 2018, T+32: Occasional-Cortex is all hat and no cattle but she needs to be taken seriously. Hey, how about a Beto-Cortex in 2020? Meanwhile, is Macron toast?


December 7, 2018, T+31: a lot of documents released by Mueller's team. There will be more than enough for the House to impeach Trump. Whether he's "legally" guilty or not, does not matter. It's all political and all perception.

December 6, 2018, T+30: I'm having trouble reconciling all the accolades for George H. W. Bush and the yearning for the polite politics of another age. Oh, give me a break. Quick? Who nominated Clarence Thomas to be a Supreme Court justice? To replace whom?

December 5, 2018, T+29: is it just me or do others agree that it's nice to talk about a temporary truce over trade wars rather than a temporary truce following a shooting war. On another note: if looks could could kill:


December 4, 2018, T+28: temporary truce with China over trade tariffs.

December 3, 2018, T+27: listening to the accolades, it sounds as if Bush I was the best US president in modern history. That's why he served only one term; replaced by Bill who was impeached and served two full terms and had it not been for term limits, would have been re-elected for a third term.

December 2, 2018, T+26: Trump has successes / breakthroughs with both Mexico and China (actually with Canada also) but the mainstream media won't cover those successes / breakthroughs (trade, immigration). And on trade, the Democratic House will try to stop him. On immigration, everyone is pretty much aligned -- except funding "the wall."

December 1, 2018, T+25: most compelling First Lady in history and the press ignores her. Not one "glamour" cover photo. Michelle had too many to count. Michelle, not counting Oprah's own magazine, probably featured on more magazine covers than Oprah.


November 30, 2018, T+24:  Trump signs new NAFTA bill. Both sides of the aisle said it couldn't be done. Amazing what Trump is accomplishing with all the push back he gets and the witch hunt.


I can't wait to see him get impeached by the US House. The amount of "stuff" unloaded on Congressmen will be unprecedented. We may finally find out what really happened in Dallas in 1963. [Purely, purely coincidental -- posting this short update several hours later -- I am now watching Executive Action on TCM.]



November 29, 2018, T+23: Schumer agrees with Trump on China. And Schumer was very, very clear about it.

November 28, 2018, T+22: Mississippi re-elects GOP's candidate for US Senate.

November 27, 2018, T+21: quiet.

November 26, 2018, T+20: folks were worried about GMO grains, beef, etc. LOL. Now, we have GMO human beings. Maybe finally folks will get past their GMO grains, beef concerns. 

November 25, 2018, T+19: all things being equal, President Trump would be correct, but, in fact, the market is tanking. What's up with that?

November 24, 2018, T+18: the difference between Obama and Trump. Obama would have caved. The Mexican president-elect knows that Trump means business -- apparently Trump win -- asylum seekers will remain in Mexico while individual cases are adjudicated. No more optics of children being removed from mothers on the US side of the border. The caravan grinds to a halt.

November 23, 2018, T+17: let's see -- this photo was taken after "9-11." And folks, like me, are calling out Trump? We're all hypocrites. Having said that, I feel strongly that Trump needed to get out in front of the Khashoggi issue. I don't know; maybe I'm wrong. Realpolitik. What would Kissinger do?


November 22, 2018, T+16: Hillary is clearly running for president in 2020 until she isn't. She is now siding with Trump on migration, but threading the needle by focusing on Europe. So, fight's on: Hillary vs Beto. Let's see who gets to Iowa first. Beto: if he shows up second, gives up huge advantage.

November 21, 2018, T+15: Trump doubles down on his "support" for MbS re: Khashoggi. Trump's stance is completely unacceptable. He could lose "bigley" on this one.

November 20, 2018, T+14: market tumbles another 520 points.

November 19, 2018, T+13: Brenda Snipes resigns -- Blow-Hard County, FL, Supervisor of Elections, resigns.

November 18, 2018, T+12: "Little Adam Schitt" tagged.  

November 17, 2018, T+11: quiet.

November 16, 2018, T+10: in The WSJ, Peggy Noonan completely mis-read Melania. CNN/Acosta win Pyrrhic victory.

November 15, 2018, T+9: Brexit proving to be a disaster for Britain.

November 14, 2018, T+8: Germany and France, nationalistic? Germany to re-militarize? Merkel / Macron want to raise their own "national" armies. Within / outside NATO construct? The two countries need to fear losing their borders to Mideast "caravans" more than they need to worry about Russia. But, whatever.

November 13, 2018, T+7: Iranian sanctions working like a charm! LOL. WTI drops another 4%, now trading below $57.50. The plunge is due to Trump's "bait and switch." Had Obama done this oil bulls and the oil industry would have been furious. 

November 12, 2018, T+6: folks are talking about a constitutional crisis involving the White House. The only constitutional crisis developing is the "theft" going on in Florida. Also, questionable results in Arizona. 

November 11, 2018, T+5: quiet.

November 10, 2018, T+4: quiet.

November 9, 2018, T+3: I just saw the video of Acosta accosting the accosted intern. It's actually worse than what I saw live -- the new video has a close-up. It appears the intern easily could have had a broken arm in the event. Certainly possible for a periosteal tear or bruise. They are painful but heal without incidence. I would assume that at a minimum the accosting Acosta will have to apologize, and perhaps even give up personally holding the microphone in the future if allowed to return to the White House grounds.

November 8, 2018, T+2: possibly nothing else will come of/from this, but generally there is more behind the headline than just the simple headline. My hunch is that along with the White House ban on Acosta coming on White House grounds, the White House press pool was given some additional "guidelines" regarding White House press conferences. There is no reason, reporters need to scream to get the president's attention; just as there is a pecking order in seating, there should be a pecking order for asking questions -- perhaps the same pecking order -- of course, we would need to change the seating order to ensure foreign correspondents weren't sitting at the back of the room.

November 7, 2018, T+1: the only talk in Texas this morning, after the mid-terms -- not only is Beto a loser, he showed his true colors in his concession speech: he is certainly no statesman. And folks talk about Trump's tweets. Wow.  US Senate: Trump went 8-for-8. Mainstream media went 0-for-8.


November 7, 2018, T+1: that didn't take long --

November 6, 2018, T+0: mid-term elections.

***************************************

The New Congress
Day 20 - present

Day 1 -- Day 19 

After The Midterms (partial govt shutdown)
Day 1 -- 57: from the election to the new Congress

Iran Sanctions
Days 67 -- 85

Fight's Back On: Let The Trade Wars Begin (A Bust)

Fight's On: Trump Exits "The Iran Deal" (A Win)
Fight's On: Let The Trade Wars Begin (A Bust)
 
The 38 Days Following The Schumer Shut-Down (A Bust)
The 2 Days of The Schumer Shut Down (A Bust)
The Last 65 Days of His First Term
Days 331 - 365
Days 301 - 330

The Trump Presidency (201 - 300)
The Third 100 Days
The Second 30 Days 
The First 30 Days

Between Election And Inauguration (1 - 100)
The Third 10 Days

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