Four DUCs Reported As Completed; Six Permits Renewed; WTI Surges Back To $81+ -- November 5, 2021

WTI: $81.27. Surged 3.12%; up $2.46; closed at $81.27. Apparently:

• traders watched Brandon's Secretary of Energy laugh when she was asked about high gasoline prices; and,
• Saudi laughed when Brandon told "them" (OPEC+) they need to produce more oil when it is actually Brandon who is trying to minimize US imports of Canadian crude oil; and,
• traders noted that the US Congress is threatening to "sue" US oil companies for "threats to humanity."

Aaron Rodgers: liar, liar, pads on fire. Said he was immunized. Apparently not against Covid-19.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$81.27	11/5/2021	11/05/2020	11/05/2019	11/05/2018	11/05/2017
Active Rigs	32	13	55	65	55

No new permits.

Six permits renewed:

• EOG (4): four Mont permits in Williams County
• Resource Energy Can-AM: one Ranger permit in Divide County
• North Range Resources: one Placid permit in McKenzie County

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37195, 787, Slawson, Mauser Federal 6-18-17H,
• 37196, 636, Slawson, Mauser Federal 8-18-17TFH,
• 37197, 1,577, Slawson, Mauser Federa 5-18-17H
• 38191, 678, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-14H,

The NDIC lists 32 active rigs in North Dakota. I have not reviewed the list.

Huge Tease -- This Weekend I Will Post The Definitive Answer To The Week's Most Pressing Question -- November 5, 2021

The question: 

If you were fully invested in CLR (financially or emotionally or however you want to define "fully invested") would you have been happy with this breaking development, that CLR invested in the Permian, in this way, to this degree.

The blog has a reader and correspondent whose credentials are unsurpassed by anyone when it comes to shale oil.  

The individual has provided one of the longest original epistles I have ever received on any subject. The correspondent weighs in on CLR's entry into the Permian.

It will take me awhile to digest his/her comments. But once I have (digested it), I will post my answer to the above question. 

Which gives me an idea, time for a new poll.

Closing out the current poll in which I asked how many rigs you think there will be in North Dakota a year from now (August 22, 2022)?

• 40 - 49: 38%
• 30 - 39: 34%
• <30: 12%
• 50 - 60: 9%
• over 60 active rigs: 7%

********************************
Taking A Break

Week 44: October 31, 2021 -- November 6, 2021

Photos of the week:

• The Brandon supply chain surcharge surfaces.
• Last minute trick-or-treating instruction. Priceless.
  

Graphic of the week:

• Saudi is back!

Top story of the week:

• Resident Biden visits the Pope. Meeting longer than expected; rumors?
• CLR's Woodrow Star "A" is back on line.
• Boom: ISM manufacturing literally off the chart.
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Global CO2 emissions revised notably downward; no one notices.
• Saudi is back!
  

Top international energy story:

• Saudi to Brandon: "You do your job; we'll do ours."
• European energy crisis: it's not even winter yet.
• Russia, Germany, Gazprom, natural gas, and all that jazz. Putin turns off natural gas to Germany.
  
• China releasing gasoline, diesel from reserves.
  

Top national non-energy story:

• "The war is over." Pfizer announces immediate availability of anti-Covid medication.
• Jobs data is incredible -- as in great.
• US equity markets on a tear. And, here; and, here. And, here. And, here. The roaring '20s. And, here.
  
• Off-year elections: GOP surprises. 
• Senator Joe Manchin positioning himself for a 2024 presidential run. 
• Logjam at LA prots: worse after Brandon got involved.
  

Top national energy story:

• CLR enters the Permian. Says it cost them $8,000 / acre. And, here. And, here.
  
• US shale operators reporting incredible 3Q21 production and financial results;
• Gas-to-liquids story (Pennsylvania, Texas); 
• Maine says "no" to huge transmission line to bring electricity to Boston;
• WTI closes above $81 when OPEC says: "Do your job, we'll do ours," to Brandon.
• US crude oil days of supply exceeds four weeks.
  

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects.
  

Operators:

• Devon: whoo-hoo!
  
• Bonanza Creek is now Civitas.
  
• CLR on an acquisition binge; most recent: $3.25 billion for 92,000 net acres in the Permian.
• EOG: raises quarterly dividend by 72%; declares a $2.00 special dividend.
  

Operations:

Wells:

• CLR's Woodrow Star "A" is back on line.
• Frank, an old Whiting well seems to be coming back on line.
• An old Whiting Flatland Federal well goes over 600K bbls crude oil cumulative;
• MRO takes the Juanita pad off line.
• An old Petro-Hunt Charlson well trending toward one million bbls crude oil cumulative, one section;

Halo effect:

• An old Petro-Hunt well.

Fracking:

Pipelines:

• Is the DAPL at risk of being superfluous?
• IEA: Line 3, huge success; may cut need for CBR; huge story;
  

The Bakken economy:

• The Chinese are coming to Grand Forks.

Commentary: 

• The Permian is the global swing producer.
  
• The five stories to follow in November.
• The stories to follow.
• Yes, Virginia, they can drill a well in ten days.
• Global crude oil demand and supply.

Apple:

• Loses market cap record to MSFT.

Three Peas In A Pod -- November 5, 2021

I posted a link to this article (see below) some days ago and said I would get back to it, and I will, but I just haven't had time. So much is happening. 

After posting the link, several readers have sent me the same link suggesting they missed my post and/or they want me to post my thoughts on the article. 

Until I get back to the article for comments, here is the link to that article (again) and two other articles along the same line, or as I call them, three peas in a pod.

Recently:

• World Pipelines: the Bakken is over-hyped. November 4, 2021.
  

• The American West at Risk: the Bakken is over-hyped, June 25, 2010.
  

• Snopes: the Bakken is over-hyped. Originally published September 17, 2008 and updated March 10, 2011.
  

Actually, I'm re-thinking this. I've talked about the Bakken for over a decade. It's not worth my time to address the most recent article. If folks can't figure this out on their own, I'm certainly not going to be change their minds; for the others, I'll simply be preaching to the choir, as they say in Rugby. 

***************************
Pfizer Anti-Viral Story Is Incredible

I don't think folks realize how incredible this is and it's all based on AI (artificial intelligence). Once the whole story is told ... 

... this was only possible due to the politics of Covid-19. This has absolutely revolutionized genetic research. 

Meanwhile, in the US, more vaccinations are being given than ever before. Prior to the Biden mandate, the number of vaccinations given on any weekday were trending toward 600,000. Now, after the Biden mandate, the number of vaccinations given on any weekday are trending toward 1.2 million, or a doubling. 

It will be interesting what happens to the rate of vaccination administration once the new Pfizer drug becomes routinely available. 

The Friday data has not yet been published by the CDC. 

One more virus these boys won't have to fear. Two peas in a pod.

The 2024 Presidential Leaderboards Are Starting To Take Shape -- November 5, 2021

Democratic leaderboard for the 2024 presidential election is starting to take shape:

• VP Kamala Harris
• Senator Joe Manchin
• Tom Steyer (yes, he's back -- this was the #1 story on the Yahoo!Finance page today)
• Beto (as heir to the RFK political machine he has the Texas Irish vote locked up)
• AOC / Ill-Hand Omar -- with a half-brain each, they hope 0.5 + 0.5 = 1
  

Likewise, the GOP leaderboard for the 2024 presidential election is also starting to take shape:

• Ed Durr (NJ GOP senator-elect)

Las Vegas odds as the leaderboards stand now: 

• Ed Durr : Kamala Harris --- 50-to-1 in favor of Durr ($1 on Durr gets you $50 if Harris wins)
  
• Ed Durr: Senator Joe Manchin -- even money
• Ed Durr: Tom Steyer -- 1,000-to-1
• Ed Durr : Beto -- 100-to-1 
• Ed Durr: AOC / IHO -- to infinity and beyond
  

Tea leaves: if Ed Durr stumbles, Joe Manchin could jump to the GOP ticket. 

Tom Steyer:

Isn't Tom "ultra-rich"? Maybe just "filthy-rich."

What Crude Oil Shortage? Let's Go Brandon, Or As They Say In Del Rio, Vamos, Brandon -- November 6, 2021

US days of supply of crude oil, link here: has increased from 28.3 to 28.9, week over week:

This is a complicated algorithm, based on at least four factors:

• amount of crude oil in storage;
• predicting the rate of increase/decrease in demand for refined products;
• predicting future operating capacity in US refineries;
• weather, as if affects:
• macro-economy: includes global demand going forward
  
• micro-economy, e.g., hurricanes in the Gulf

If the Friday night cheerleading video doesn't go viral, I will be very, very disappointed:

ND State Mineral Quarterly Lease Sales -- November, 2021

Link here.

Bottineau County:

• one tract
• JBLS Montana Inc,
• 80 acres
• $104/acre

Burke County:

• eight tracts
• eight 80-acre tracts
• all Northern Energy Corporation
• $5.00 to $15 / acre bonus

Divide County:

• fourteen tracts
• one forty-acre tract; the rest, eighty-acre tracts
• Northern Energy; Lonetree Energy; Lynx Oil Company;
• $41 to $207 / acre bonuses

McKenzie County:

• eight tracts
  
• two huge tracts: two tracts with very high bues
• Bowline, Missouri River in SW4; 152-104-8; 41.89 acres at $3,253 / acre
• Lynx Oil, Missouri River in NE4; 153-102-13; 11.15 acres at $1,982 / acre
• the other six tracts, four with 160 acres and two with 80 acres; bonuses between $41 and $158
• for these smaller tracts, bids won by Northern Energy Company (5), Norra Resources (1)

Sioux County (first time I've seen this county in the quarterly lease sales):

• seven tracts
• all bids won by Ronald hettich
• mostly 80-acre tracts two 160-acre tracts
• won with minimum bid of $1.00 / acre
• will probable sell them to Zillow for $1,000 / acre

Williams County:

• twenty-one tracts
• 60- to 80-acre tracts for the most part
• one 20-acre tract;
• most in the $100 - $500 / acre range
• one tract for $4,824 / acre, SE4SW4, 152-103-4, a 20-acre tract; won by Bowline Energy;
• one tract for $3,851 / acre; N2NW4, SW4NW4; a 60-acre act, won by Bowline Energy;

"Anonymous" Is A Lousy Analyst -- November 5, 2021

Link here.

ISO NE has its usual spike this morning: spiked to $180 / MWh and the spike lasted a bit longer than usual, about twice as long. 

 

Condolences to those who were still charging their Teslas. 

Generally, renewables doing much better by this time of the day, but renewable and hydroelectricity contribution are the same.

A couple of weeks ago when this was pointed out -- the early morning surge -- "anonymous" said this was a one-off -- most likely an equipment failure. That's "anonymous" for you.

*****************************
The Club Increases In Size

Yesterday there were two publicly traded American companies that had a market cap that exceeded two trillion dollars: Apple and Microsoft.

Today, it's likely that Alphabet will join that very, very exclusive club. With a few more acquisitions, Harold Hamm's Continental Resources could possibly join that club. LOL. You heard it here first.

Jobs Surge — Markets Surge — November 5, 2021

This page complete. No more updates.

Wow, wow, wow: payrolls for August and September were raised way up. Huge revisions upward. Not being reported; too much happening.

Huge participation rate. Have to go back to the 1970s to see participation rates like this.

Broad-based gains.

XLNX; pre-market goes over $200.

PFE: up 12%. Up $5.00, from $43.85 to $48.45. Up over 10%.

PTON: now down 33%.

Dollar spikes.

Ten-year treasury: 1.528%. Now, 1.519. Inflation? What inflation? Now, 1.535.

Jim Cramer will be more manic than ever.

CNBC: medical analyst / contributor — COVID for the US is so over — Dr Scott Gottlieb.

Dow continues to surge.

Productivity with wage growth minimizes inflation but productivity report yesterday, not good.

Now Jim Cramer, reiterates: CNBC: medical analyst / contributor — COVID for the US is so over.

It’s over. “The war is over.” November 5, 2021. It will take awhile for the market to confirm this. The Brandon administration needs to get out in front of this: grab this bull by the horns and declare victory: ditch the daily Covid briefings; ditch the mandate talk (just do it); ditch the masks.

WTI: up 80 cents. Now, $79.61.

Deere: fastest way to end the strike? Management needs to take their incredibly generous offer off the table. That will get Joe Six Pack’s attention. Harsh? Yup. Tough love.

Fed: reiterating — June, 2022, rate increase may be off the table. Turnaround in autos starting to be seen. Supply chain problems seem to be resolving. If these problems correct, fed rate increase won’t be needed. Remember: Jay Powell, this week, clearly said about whom he was most concerned. He was telegraphing he does not want to raise rates under his watch. His replacement, if it were to occur, will be even more dovish.

Infrastructure bill: US House could bring bill to the floor today.

Cocked and loaded: I’ve already got my trades loaded.

Uber: shares pop. First profitable quarter.

AirBNB: think about this — four-day weekends are now the norm. Working from home makes it possible. Covid-19 forced folks to learn to work from home. Four-day weekends make AirBNB concept work.

Michelob weekend: it’s here.

Market open.

Holy mackerel: AAPL surges.

All three major indices trading at record highs.

UNP up $1.60. 

SRE; up $1.72.

This page done.

Halcyon Days For Investors -- November 5, 2021

Fed hike: tea leaves now suggest first rate hike won't occur before 1Q23. That's the first quarter of 2023. That's more than a year from now. No rate increases all next year (2022): tea leaves. 

SRE: beats by one penny; beats on revenue; shares; extends losses in pre-market trading;

Pre-market: records from earlier this week are holding in pre-market

• three major US equity indices all in the green
• selected tickers:

• MPC: down slightly at close yesterday; flat pre-market;
• AAPL: down a bit at close yesterday; up slightly this morning;
• UNP: down almost one percent yesterday (ouch -- profit taking); today, up a bit;
• SRE: down yesterday; down more today;
• OKE: down yesterday; up a bit
• CLR: down 5% yesterday; up 1.32% in pre-market trading today
• DVN: up 1% yesterday; up another 1.3% now
• XLNX: on a tear; up 3.43% yesterday; up another 1.85% in pre-market trading; might XLNX hit $200 today?
  
• oral anti-covid drugs
• huge breakthrough: will affect other viral diseases
• anti-covid drugs tested on unvaccinated patients only
• comparison with ivermectin not mentioned
  
• MRK: up yesterday; down now; first to announce drug; earlier this week;
  
• PFE: down yesterday; up over 8% in pre-market trading; announced very effective drug overnight;
  

Covid-19: are folks paying attention. Huge strides in anti-viral research and results being reported. Huge. Previously posted on the blog: Covid-19: many, many silver linings to this dark cloud. Overall: something "positive" for humanity.

Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- November 5, 2021

Note: in a long note like this, there will be typographical and content errors. Some links may be wrong or broken; if you find a link that is wrong, let me know.

Note: this is not an investment site. Notes that could be construed as related to investing are simply there to follow the money which helps me understand the energy sector. 

Note: facts and opinions are interspersed; it's hard to tell the different. If any of this is important to you, go to the source.

NOG: announces 3Q21 results. Press release.

• production:
• boepd production doubles qtr/qtr
• oil production up 52% qtr/qtr
• cash flow: 
• up as much as 253% from one year ago
  
• from operations: nearly $100 million
• excluding certain "stuff": $122 million
• free cash flow: $55 million
• announced $154 million Williston Basin acquisition in October; closed on Permian Basin properties on August 2, 2021
• operating costs:
• lease operating costs: $8.15 / boe; down 5%, sequential quarters
• due to increased low-cost Marcellus and Permian production
• G&A: $1.04 / boe
• excluding costs associated with recent acquisition, G&A: 78 cents / boe
• dividend: previously announced -- a 50% increase from prior quarter
  

WTI: clawing back to $79.66.

**********************
Back to the Bakken

NOG: announces 3Q21 results. Press release. 

Active rigs:

$79.66	11/5/2021	11/05/2020	11/05/2019	11/05/2018	11/05/2017
Active Rigs	32	13	55	65	55

Two wells coming off the confidential list: 

Friday, November 5, 2021: 6 for the month, 9 for the quarter, 260 for the year:

• 37365, conf,  Whiting, Sorenson 21-6-3H,
• 36773, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-8,

RBN Energy: navigating crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs through energy transition.

For all who thought an energy transition was going to be orderly, economic, or rational, the chaos of 2021 energy markets is a wake-up call. It’s not that the shift from fossil fuels to renewables is causing most of the market turmoil, but it is certainly magnifying the effects of a host of energy market glitches that, together with the mechanics of the transition, are wreaking havoc on the global economy. Which underscores the challenge of this generation: We must live, work, and produce hydrocarbons the way the world functions today, while at the same time preparing for — and investing in — a much-lower-carbon future. As we’ve heard this week from Glasgow, it’s a future that a lot of folks believe means net-zero greenhouse gas emissions and no hydrocarbons. 

That challenge is the underlying theme for RBN’s Fall 2021 School of Energy, to be held next week, November 9-10. Not only have we restructured our agenda to include a half day covering the impact of hydrogen, CO₂ sequestration, and renewable diesel, we’ve reworked and updated our core hydrocarbons market curriculum to examine how crude oil, natural gas, and NGL markets will evolve to accommodate what lies ahead. In today’s encore RBN blog edition — a blatant advertorial — we’ll consider these issues and highlight how our upcoming School of Energy integrates existing market dynamics with prospects for the energy transition.

The Five Energy Stories To Follow Today And Through The End Of The Month -- November 5, 2021

Note: in a long note like this, there will be typographical and content errors. Some links may be wrong or broken; if you find a link that is wrong, let me know.

Note: this is not an investment site. Notes that could be construed as related to investing are simply there to follow the money which helps me understand the energy sector. 

Note: facts and opinions are interspersed; it's hard to tell the different. If any of this is important to you, go to the source.

MPC: before we get started, this random observation. Seldom do I seen any of the four panelists on Melissa Lee's show mention any refiner as their "final trade" on her show. Yesterday, one of the best of the panelists made MPC his final trade. I about fell off  my chair. He sees something the rest of us don't. This is what he sees; huge. Worth the subscription price for the blog.

Now, on to today's early morning post. Five energy stories to follow today and through the end of the month.

SPR release: it looks like the Brandon administration could announce release of significant amount of oil from US SPR.

Line 5: it looks like the Brandon administration could announce the closure of Line 5. 

CLR: on an acquisition binge.

Shale: returning cash to shareholders.

Deals: in the oil patch.

*******************************
SPR Release

Here we go:

• chart of the day: US national average gasoline is fast approaching $3.50 per gallon, a level seen only a few times in the last 20 years; Biden administration is in panic mode; lost Virginia this week;
• OPEC+ to Brandon administration: "you do your job; we do ours. We're not changing our decision."
  Brandon administration will release oil from the SPR; will take pressure off their rapidly depleting inventories;
• if he doesn't follow through, he's going to look even weak to OPEC+;
• Brandon administration playing checkers; OPEC+ (Saudi/Putin) playing chess.
• US releases oil from SPR; OPEC+ will announce it is taking one million bopd off market
• why OPEC will remain conservative: it's not over 'til it's over;
• related: how the US lost control of the giant Iraqi oil field: link to Simon Watkins.
• releasing oil from SPR makes no sense at all; gasoline problem won't be solved with more oil; that's not the problem; US refiners operating at 85% operable capacity; US crude oil inventories have risen by about 20 mb/d in recent week while crude inputs into refineries are about 1 mb/d less than they were in 2018; 
• Permian: things have changed. Permian supply and pipelines to the gulf coast: excess capacity; so the futures curve is forcing a major de-stock. Brent-WTI super tight; Cushing getting emptied.
  

************************
Line 5

Brandon administration currently studying whether that would impact gasoline prices. Should be a short study. Link here.

********************
CLR: On Acquisition Binge

Here we go:

• Permian: CLR's third major back-to-back acquisition in past year;
• Teutoburg: negative on Permian acquisition; and look at that -- $65K / BOE -- exactly what MDW posted earlier; whoo-hoo!
• Permian acquisition: like me, others are confused.

*******************
Shale: Returning Cash to Shareholders

Devon:

• reported earnings of $1.24, vs 0.92 cents forecast; earnings whisper was $1.03;
• crushes 3Q21 declared fixed-plus-variable dividend of 84 cents/share; cash balance increased $782 million to $2.3 billion; free cash flow for the quarter was $1.1 billion.
• 9% 2022 dividend yield while buying back 4% of market cap;
• 3Q21: $1 billion share repurchase program; 46% increase in operating cash flow; 71% increase in dividend;
• Ezra goes big on his first result at CEO: huge;https://twitter.com/BillyMcFarlend/status/1456357784828715020

EOG: earnings, website; EOG financials (pdf);

OXY: more than doubles profit, 3Q21;

*********************
Deals In The Oil Patch

A few:

• Southwestern acquires another private Haynesville producer in $1.85 billion deal;
• El Paso sends more natural gas westbound in possible easing to capacity restrictions; Platts;
• Southwestern Energy: 3Q21 earnings; social media thread;

*****************************
Pre-Market

Quickly:

• Peloton: crashing
• Uber and AirBNB: surging; pre-pandemic numbers; huge; Covid-19 is so over for the US;
• Expedia: huge beat; this is the earnings call to listen to; already booking out to summer next year; trying to get reservation for this year -- not gonna happen;
• Zillow: crushed; this is why;