Random Look At Another MRO Bakken Phenomenon -- March 11, 2019

This is really for newbies to show them what the Bakken is all about.

The full note is at this post.

For newbies -- lots to look at regarding that post, that well. We have an index well (#16686) that was not fracked after it was first drilled, back in 2008. In 2014, it had a very, very small frack (1.8 million lbs); at that time showed a nice jump in production as one would expect. Then, there was another jump in production in December, 2018, and yet it was not re-fracked. The production was high enough suggesting the well was indeed fracked.

Well, it turns out that for all intents and purposes, it was re-fracked -- by four neighboring wells; two running in the same direction as #16686, and two running in the opposite direction.

1. Look at the jump in production in December, 2018, even though this well was not re-fracked; this is a classic MRO phenomenon;

2. Look at the incredible IPs for the new wells (at least one of them was a Three Forks well; these wells are in the Reunion Bay oil field and in MRO's hands, are incredible wells;

3. When looking at production numbers for any given month, if production seems low, look at the number of days of production;

The well:

• 16686, 379, MRO, Shobe 24-20H, API: 33-061-00547, Reunion Bay, t12/08; cum 461K 8/19;

• This well was fracked/tested:12/16/2008: 0 stages; 511,700 lbs; note production at initial completion; not fracked
• Re-fracked/tested: 7/9/14: 30 stages; 1.8 million lbs sand; note jump in production after this small frack
• Note jump in production, 12/18; not re-fracked: nice jump in production see below 

So, what caused the jump in production in 12/18? Let's look at the neighboring wells. There are four, all of them relatively far away -- certainly not sister wells; maybe not even parent/child wells by strict definition, but that's all in the eye of the beholder; I won't argue it one way or the other;

16686, production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	5286	5330	3183	7367	6759	265
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	5920	5900	4696	6560	4325	1862
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	5283	5246	4187	5766	4946	497
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	6787	6830	4705	7392	6996	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	7462	7463	6756	6793	5762	598
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	8255	8216	9793	10536	8295	1751
BAKKEN	2-2019	26	7066	7069	8371	9934	4771	4754
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	11509	11536	14791	14162	6881	6621
BAKKEN	12-2018	30	13796	13667	28932	14844	8120	5927
BAKKEN	11-2018	1	302	300	761	115	29	69
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	2	0	370	185	251	0	250
BAKKEN	7-2018	27	2625	2582	568	3686	3315	65
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	3032	3166	656	4208	3823	33

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See this note also; similar phenomenon.

A long list of interesting wells are linked here.

Four Consecutive Years Of Declining Conventional Oil Volumes Which Has Never Happened Before -- IHS -- May 23, 2016

Oil & Gas Journal is reporting that the conventional discoveries of oil and gas outside North America have fallen to the lowest level since 1952. Some data points:

• outside of North American in 2015: just 12 billion boe recoverable resources were discovered from conventional wells
• lowest level since 1952 (about the time I was born)
• wow: the volume of oil alone discovered in 2015 totaled just 2.8 billion bbl -- also a record on the downside -- since the ramp-up of oil and gas exploration following WWII
• 9 million boe of conventional gas discovered: fifth straight year that gas discoveries have exceeded oil discoveries
• the fall in discovered volumes for conventional oil outside North America has been stead and dramatic during the past few years
• four consecutive years of declining oil volumes, which has never happened before
• the bottom has completely fallen out of conventional exploration
• the supply gap in the future is going to be challenging to overcome

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Oil Production Won't Meet Demand In Five (5) Years -- Former Shell CEO

CNBC is reporting:

"We cannot ever produce enough oil, in my opinion, to satisfy global demand five or 10 years out. We have to start using natural gas and more biofuels as a source of transportation fuel," former Shell Oil CEO John Hofmeister said in an interview with CNBC.

On Thursday, the American Petroleum Institute reported petroleum deliveries rose by 3.6 percent from a year ago to 19.7 million barrels a day, making it the highest April deliveries in eight years.

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, work, or relationship decisions based on what you read here, but as for me, I'm looking around. 

Phillips 66 May Consider Bigger Stake In Bakken Pipeline -- Reuters -- January 30, 2016

The Dickinson Press is reporting:

Phillips 66 may consider increasing its 25 percent stake in Energy Transfer Partners' pipeline project to move North Dakota Bakken oil to Illinois and Texas, but likes its current commitment as is, President Tim Taylor told analysts on Friday.

This was my last entry regarding this pipeline:

January 20, 2016: North Dakota approves Dakota Access Pipeline; only Iowa is yet to approve; company expects Iowa to approve "next month." I'll believe it when I see it.

And that link led to this:

Regulators in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Illinois have already approved permits. Iowa still remains, though the company says it expects that approval to come next month.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers also must approve the pipeline because it would cross beneath the Missouri River twice in North Dakota, near Williston and Mandan.

So Nebraska Iowa must still approve the pipeline as well as President Obama. I'm not holding my breath when the promoters say they hope to have this pipeline completed by the end of 2016.

A "snapshot" of this pipeline can be found here.