Saturday, October 8, 2016

One Last Thought Before I Head For Bed -- October 8, 2016

This well just went over one million bbls cumulative! It's been producing since 1981 -- let's see, that's about 34 years. As noted, it's a Silurian well.
  • 7571, 482, Hess, Reitsch NCT-2 4, Blue Buttes, a Silurian well a conventional, vertical well, 40-acre spacing, from the well report, "On 4-6-84 the well was acid fractured ....", t4/81; cum 1,004,712 bbls 5/16; this well went inactive in 5/16; and has remained inactive since then.
There are at least two other Silurian wells in the immediate area, both still active, and both exceeding 800,000 bbls cumulative (#9057, #8269).

Meanwhile this well celebrated its 50th anniversary last January, 2016, and it's still active, producing about 1,000 bbls / month. It is a vertical well:
  • 3983, 234, Enduro Operating, North Dakota C A 3, a Devonian well, vertical, 320-acre spacing, t1/66, cum 1.38 million bbls; 8/16; celebrated its 50th anniversary January, 2016.

As noted earlier, I did drive over to McKinney today to attend the coin show. I was there for one purpose: to buy some 21st century silver coins. I was there for less then 20 minutes: I got my coins and got out.

The whole experience made me think of this: my life is what it is. It's two sides of the same coin. I can look at life like Hillary and Barack look at life, or I can look at the same coin, the opposite side, like Ronald Reagan looked at life.

Yes, Her

The Era Of Big Job Gains Is Over -- LA Times -- October 8, 2016

This is a most complex issue because it is in the "political arena" and it is also in a "non-political arena" -- which "non-political arena" I do not know.

Now that the dust has settled, and "everyone" has had their chance to weigh in, it is generally agreed that the jobs report released on Friday was "disappointing" at best, and perhaps, "dismal" at worst. USA Today called it "disappointing" -- the second consecutive month with a "disappointing jobs report."

It's possible that we've seen the end of large monthly job gains -- something I've said for a long, long time. Technology is such, I don't see large waves of workers leaving or coming into the workforce in any given month.

At 5% or even 6% unemployment I think the US is at full employment.

I do feel strongly that a pro-growth administration in Washington could improve things a bit, but, at the end of the day, probably marginally. Even if every crude oil pipeline and every CBR terminal and every offshore wind farm was approved in the aggregate we would have a bump in jobs but the bump would be temporary.

I say all that as a preface to linking the article at The Oregonian with this headline: the era of big monthly job gains appears over, and economists say that's a good thing.
The era of monthly payroll gains of at least 200,000 appears to be over after the Labor Department reported that job growth was lackluster again in September, but economists said that's a good thing.
Although the 156,000 net new jobs added last month was down from August and a bit below analysts' expectations, wage growth was solid and the labor force continued to expand.
Those are signs of a healthy labor market as more people come off the sidelines to look for jobs and employers have to boost pay to lure and retain workers, experts said.
The source of the article, the Los Angeles Times, seems to acknowledge that the magic number was 200,000. Until now, it appeared the Obama apologists had tried to re-set the goal-posts, suggesting that 150,000 was the "new" number that indicated economic growth, or at least stability.

The problem I have with this is that the Los Angeles Times, the most liberal national media outlet, is saying this. It sounds like the writers are lapdogs for the Obama administration. I can't imagine the LA Times writing this if a Republican were president. There would be no end to "Bush bashing" by the LA Times if monthly jobs gains did not hit the "magic" number.

It would be interesting to hear Alan Greenspan weigh in on this. 

I do know that if oil spiked to $100/bbl and there was every indication it was going to stay there, the number of jobs added in the US would soar.

Later: the comments at the LA Times suggest that I am wrong on this one. Link here to see the comments.


I sure wish everyone had a chance to see all the activity -- economic activity -- north of DFW. It is truly amazing. Today I drove over to McKinney -- about a 40-minute drive -- 70 mph on the tollway -- even I was surprised at all the development in this area. It really reminds me of the sprawl of Los Angeles but a lot less traffic. And when they get the ten-lane highway south of Lewisville completed it will be truly incredible.

In Plano, along Texas Highway 121 I noted no fewer than a dozen cranes -- building high rise buildings. I said to myself, "I have experienced two booms: one here in Texas, north of DFW, and one in Boomtown, Williston, the Bakken, North Dakota.

It truly is incredible. Maybe more later.


I don't recall when I first heard the name Frederick Law Olmsted but it was sometime during the four years that we spent in Boston. He was a fascinating man and his was a fascinating story. My hunch is that I first came across his name in one of my most "treasured" books: The Hub's Metropolis: Greater Boston's Development from Railraod Suburbs to Smart Growth by James C. O'Connell, c. 2013.

I happened to see the book at the Harvard Bookstore in Cambridge; it was an impulse purchase.

In this month's issue of London Review of Books, there is an essay by Christopher Benfey on the landscape architect: Frederick Law Olmsted: Writings On Landscape, Culture and Society, edited by Charles E. Beveridge. Olmsted, b. 1822; d. 1903.

I had forgotten that Olmsted was the mastermind of New York's Central Park. In addition, according to the essay: "Olmsted helped design Central Park and Brooklyn's equally magnificent Prospect Park, Stanford University and many other American colleges, and the public grounds at Niagara Falls, the US Capitol in Washington, and, late in life, the 1893 World's Fair in Chicago."

Truly amazing how much one man can do in a lifetime.

Later, a reader responded:
While in the area some years ago for a conference,  I took a couple days vacation to see High Point Furniture and the Biltmore mansion. I stayed in Ashville one night so I could have a fresh start and a full day to see Biltmore. Driving up to the mansion from town, I enjoyed the winding road; a real vision of lush trees, myriad shrubs and blooming rhododendrons/azaleas - whatever.  I had briefly compared the switchbacks on that road to going down to the Long X bridge on Highway 85 -  a lovely view at each turn, although a much gentler terrain in NC.
If you haven't seen Biltmore, it's worth a trip - take the granddaughters.  If I remember correctly:
  • The Cecil family still lives there - one of the only big houses still in family hands
  • From the patio you can see Mt. Pisgah. The estate originally comprised all the land you can see between the house and that mountain.  I believe his widow had to sell something like 60,000 acres to pay the death tax.
  • There are numerous family portraits painted by John Singer Sargent, just as though you hung your kids' graduation photos - but bigger and museum quality
  • I believe the dining hall seats 100. They decorate for Christmas with 8 foot tall trees on the dining table.
  • He built the house 5 years before marrying.
  • The foyer is open to 3 stories - and one chandelier is suspended to light all 3 stories

Another Derailment -- Apparently Highly Flammable Bakken Crude Oil Not Involved -- October 8, 2016

From USA Today about an hour ago:
A Long Island Rail Road train derailed Saturday night in western Long Island, shutting down the popular New York-area commuting line.
No information on injuries was immediately available.
The train collided with a truck, resulting in multiple injuries, according to an "eyewitness."
One wonders if the governor of New York needs to ban commuter trains, this new derailment coming just days after the Hoboken incident that left one dead and 100's more injured. 

Results Of A Well Re-Entered, Re-Fracked By Burlington Resources -- October 8, 2016

This is the recent production profile for a BR well; go to this post to see the full story. (I hope the Saudis are watching.)

Production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Zavanna's Gust 2-11 Well In Long Creek Looks Like It's Back To "Normal" -- October 8, 2016

This is nice to see. It looks like they finally got this well back up and running, a nice well (the "September 26, 2015" date is when I first noted issues, and then updated it periodically):

September 26, 2015: why was this well off-line so many months, recently?
  • 19981, 1,003, Zavanna, Gust 2-11 1H, Long Creek/Wildcat, Bakken; not sure why this was a wildcat; in Long Creek, east of Williston, t3/12; cum 321K 8/16; still having problems, 8/15; updates here; back on status as of 5/16; doing well but it would be nice to see better production; recently, gas lift installed.
This is the production profile now; looks nice, back to 11/13 (first production was back in January, 2012):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Updating The Gadeco 25-36H Well In Epping Oil Field -- October 8, 2016


June 26, 2017: is this well finally back on status and doing well?

November 29, 2016: update here. Production profile very interesting, especially in light of fact I can't find any evidence this well has been fracked.
Original Post
There has been some work done on this well and a new pump put in, but nothing I could find that would explain the "bump" in production. There are no new wells in the immediate are, so no "halo" effect.

But note that back in September, 2015, the last "full month" of production, the well produced a bit more than 3,000 bbls of oil. Then it was off line most of the past year, until July, 2016. On-line for only half the month the well produced more than 4,000 bbls of oil, and then despite only 20 days in August, 2016, the well produced over 6,000 bbls of oil (the "December 9, 2014" date is when I first started tracking this well).

December 9, 2014: just noticed that this one went inactive in August, 2014
  • 20398, 1,313 825 (corrected), Gadeco, Golden 25-36H, Epping, Bakken, t6/12; cum 138K 8/16; IA as of 8/14; back on status for one month, 12/14, but then off-line all of 1/15; now listed as A, 2/15. Off-line 11/15, and then back on-line 3/16 but only 3 - 6 days each month through 6/16. Two IPs provided; not explained why; t6/12; back on status, 2/15; off-status most of 2016, until July, 2016 (16 days, 4,256 bbls); and August, 2016 (20 day, 6,256 bbls)
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 140066     Cum MCF Gas: 247696     Cum Water: 14461
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 6/3/2012     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 1313     IP MCF: 20163     IP Water: 1912

Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Another Geico Rock Award 2016 Nominee -- Professor Peter Wadhams, Cambridge University, A Leading Expert On Arctic Sea Ice Loss -- October 8, 2016

This is pretty cool. For quite some time now, I've predicted (it's on the blog in multiple places) that Saudi Arabia would have difficulty providing aid to various Mideast countries because of its own financial problems.

Well, here it is. Reuters is reporting: "Without Saudi oil aid, Egypt rushed out big buy tenders." Data points:
  • Saudi Arabia recently agreed to provide Egypt 700,000 tonnes of refined oil products per month for five years under a $23 billion deal between Saudi Aramco and Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation
  • the deal was made during a state visit by none other than Saudi Arabia's King Salman himself
  • Saudi Aramco products were halted as of October 1, 2016
  • "the reason for the halt in aid remains unclear" -- LOL
From the linked article:
The kingdom has pumped billions of dollars, including grants, into Egypt's flagging economy since the toppling of President Mohamed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood in 2013 after mass protests against his rule.
The Arctic Sea Is Not Ice-Free

For at least a decade, The Algore School of Global Warming has forecast that the Arctic Ocean would be completely free of ice by now. For a partial "list" of articles with that forecast, see Real Science":
  • The Argus, July 17, 1954: "The ice-paced Arctic Ocean might become navigable in another 25 or 50 years if the present "warming-up" tendency of the Polar region continues. This was stated yesterday in the United States Congress."
  • The Tuscaloosa News, May18, 1972: "Arctic Ocean to be ice-free by year 2000?
  • Google/Newspapers, July 16, 2011: "With Arctic Ice at record low, NSIDC Director Serreze says 'we are on track to see an ice-free summer by 2030. It is an overall downward spiral."
  • BBC News, 2009: Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'
  • John Kerry: "... the Arctic Ocean may be ice-free for a short period of time as early as 2015, according to the 2009 Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Reportt completed by the eight Arctic Council Nations."
Meanwhile, seven years ago today, Algore predicted North Pole would be ice free in five years.

Well, it did not happen -- the Arctic is not ice-free. In fact, the ice is 21% thicker now than it was in 2012. It will be interesting to see if The National Geographic reports that. David Muir on ABC News won't be reporting that fact.  

The [London] Telegraph did: "Experts said Arctic sea ice would melt entirely by September 2016 -- they were wrong."
Scientists such as Prof Peter Wadhams, of Cambridge University, and Prof Wieslaw Maslowski, of the Naval Postgraduate School in Moderey, California, have regularly forecast the loss of ice by 2016, which has been widely reported by the BBC and other media outlets.
Prof Wadhams, a leading expert on Arctic sea ice loss, has recently published a book entitled A Farewell To Ice in which he repeats the assertion that the polar region would free of ice in the middle of this decade.
As late as this summer, he was still predicting an ice-free September. (Geico Rock Award 2016 nominee.]
Yet, when figures were released for the yearly minimum on September 10, they showed that there was still 1.6 million square miles of sea ice (4.14 square kilometres), which was 21 per cent more than the lowest point in 2012.

A Sixth Pipeline Company Wants To Tap Into The DAPL -- October 8, 2016

From The Seattle Times, October 7, 2016:
  • Epping Transmission Company
  • proposes a $6.5 million project to connect its Epping Station and Divide Mainline Pipeline to DAPL
  • Epping is located a few miles northeast of Williston
  • Epping has become a surprising center of activity in the Bakken
  • there is also a CBR terminal in Epping (seldom used now according to locals)
  • the Epping addition would add 30,000 bopd to the DAPL
  • with the additional Epping contribution, the DAPL would move 470,000 to 570,000 bopd
To put that in perspective, here are some data points for the Trans-Alaska Pipeline:
  • theoretical maximum capacity: 2.03 million bopd
  • 2012 flow rate: 600,000 bopd (significantly lower than capacity)
  • built between 1974 and 1977 (after the 1973 oil crisis)
  • first bbl traveled through the pipeline in 1977
  • as of 2010, the pipeline had shipped almost 16 billion barrels
  • it was estimated that between 200 million and 500 million bbls would have to be recovered in the North Slope to make the pipeline economical
Unfettered, the Bakken will produce that much oil in a year. Currently, the Bakken is producing about 1 million bopd, i.e., 365 million bbls/year.

Filloon: WIth A Bakken Update -- October 8, 2016

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3368190184193

Mike Filloon has a Bakken update over at SeekingAlpha: Pioneer's Sale Ranch reaches breakeven in 5 years at $30 oil. Summary:
  • Pioneer's top prospect is Sale Ranch in Martin County Texas
  • This prospect has seen 85 completions to date with excellent results
  • Current calculations of the Sale Ranch type curve provide very good economics at $50/bbl oil and even performs adequately at $30/bbl
By the way, other than in "Bakken Update," the word Bakken is found nowhere in that update. However, the use of the phrase is not inappropriate. The word "Bakken" has three "meanings" for those who have followed the Bakken from the beginning. One of the three meanings: the "Bakken" is a metonym for the US shale revolution (see the last entry at this post).

Mars Attacks!

Warren Buffett makes a killing on Mars Candy -- Business Insider, October 5, 2013.
Mars buying out Warren Buffett to take full control of Wrigley -- Forbes, October 6, 2016. We don't know much but we know this:
  • Berkshire quarterly report: Wrigley represented a $2.1 billion preferred stake
  • Wrigley provided an annual 5% dividend
  • the original agreement (back in 2013) allowed Mars to repurchase half of BRK's stake over 90 days beginning this past week (October 6, 2016, to be exact) and the remaining half in 2021
  • Mars has "accelerated" the purchase of BRK's entire equity interest in Wrigley
  • this is what we don't know: how much Mars paid for the opportunity to complete this deal five years early 
  • my hunch: a 15% premium and the dividends that BRK would have received over the five years (= $315 million + $525 million, respectively) 
  • Yahoo!Finance: prior to this deal, BRK had $64.82 billion in cash
Mars Attacks!

3-Day Weekend

I was up at 5:20 a.m. this morning. As I noted late last night, May and I have a 3-day weekend. We have absolutely no commitments this weekend with regard to soccer or water polo or taking care of the two-year-old. One would think I would want to start the weekend by sleeping in.

I could say that I got up at 5:20 a.m. because I did not want to miss a minute of the wonderful 3-day weekend that lay in front of me.

In fact, I couldn't sleep.

The first "news" story I read was the the Yahoo!Finance story about the "relationship" between Waffle House and FEMA. It is such a great story on so many levels, but for me this was most interesting: the dedication of the managers and staff of any given Waffle House.

Having lived in the south for quite some time, particularly in the Charleston, SC, area, I am very, very familiar with Waffle Houses. They were one of the first establishments that I visited when I first came to South Carolina. 

Waffle Houses "never" close. For Waffle House managers and staff to leave their own families and their own homes to come to work in the middle of hurricane watches, warnings, and storms speaks volumes. The article said that it was a challenge for some managers to lock up their Waffle Houses ahead of Hurricane Matthew because they couldn't find the key to the front door to lock up, so seldom is the Waffle House ever closed, and locked up.

FEMA now includes the "Waffle House index" as a proxy for  how bad things are: "green" is full operations; "yellow" is partial menu and generator power; and, "red" is the apocalypse.

I was reading that story in bed on a 2nd generation iPad. It was impossible for me not to get up and have some waffles and coffee.