Job Watch

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Reagan vs Obama: job recovering following a recession. Reuters and Bloomberg keep telling us job growth is strong, but never seem to really back up that assertion.

The Magic Numbers

First time claims, unemployment benefits: 400,000 (> 400,000: economic stagnation)

New jobs: 200,000 (< 200,000 new jobs: economic stagnation)

Economists estimate the labor market needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate steady, though estimates vary -- Reuters. 

I will stick with 200,000 (the "magic number" prior to the Obama administration) -- it's a nicer, "rounder" number to remember.

After about the first two years of posting these updates, it had become clear/obvious that the figures were often suspect, if not outright falsified. On November 18, 2013, it was reported that, indeed, unemployment figures have been falsified.

In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington.
The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated.
And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.

 Take the numbers for what they are worth, I guess. Not much. As so much else with ObamaNation.

Updates

January 6, 2017: incredibly dismal December jobs report; NYT calls it a "tepid" report; forecast 183,000 (vs 204,000 in November, 2016; came in at an incredibly low 156,000.

January 5, 2017: look at all the service jobs added vs all the manufacturing jobs lost

• first-time claims fall sharply: 28,000 to seasonally adjusted 235,000; lowest level since mid-November; second lowest since late 1973; economists expected 260,000 initial claims -- another huge miss; four-week rolling average fell by 5,750 to 256,750
• another poor payroll add: private payrolls climbed by 153,000 (see magic numbers); forecast was 175,000; the November number was revised to a 215,000 gain; manufacturers reduced headcounts by 16,000; service providers increased by 169,000

December 29, 2016: First time unemployment claims -- down 10,000 to 265,000.

December 22, 2016: jump to six-month high: 275,000. Four-week average also up: 263,750.

December 15, 2016: 254,000, down 4,000; four-week moving average up 5,250 to 257,750. 

December 8, 2016: 258,000, down 10,000; four-week moving average, up a bit to 252,500.

December 2, 2016: November unemployment rate, tumbles to 4.6%; Only 178,000 jobs added. [Apparently revised to 204,000 later.]

December 1, 2016: first time unemployment claims to highest level in five months; "jump" 17,000 to 268,000; completely unexpected; four-week average edges up 500 to 251,000

November 30, 2016: 216,000 private sector jobs added (forecast, only 170,000).

November 23, 2016: previous week revised; current week, claims surged 18,000.  Four-week average, 253,000.

November 17, 2016: plunged 21,000 to 233,000; four-week average fell 7,000 to 253,000 (revised figures).

November 10, 2016: plunged 11,000 to 254,000; significantly more than forecast; four-week moving average ticks up 1,750 to 259,750.

November 3, 2016: up, 7,000, to 265,000. Forecast was for a significant decline. Four-week average also up an interesting 4,750, to 257,750.

October 27, 2016: down, 3000, to 258,000 after last week revised upward by a thousand. Four-week average also rose a thousand, up to 253,000.

October 20, 2016: surges; up 13,000. Back to 270,000. Four-week average up to 251,750.

October 13, 2016: four-decade low first time unemployment claims; previous week revised downward; this week unchanged from previous week; 246,000; four-week rolling average also lowest since 1973, at 249,250.

October 7, 2016: second consecutive month for disappointing jobs data. Magic number is 200,000. Forecast was for 172,000 new jobs. Actual: 167,000 new jobs. Disappointing. 

October 6, 2016: huge drop in first time unemployment claims. Dropped 5,000 to 249,000.  It looks like the previous number was revised upward to 254,000. Four-week moving average down to 253,500.

September 22, 2016: huge drop in first time unemployment claims; dropped 8,000 to 252,000, well below the 261,000 forecast; four-week moving average also down to 258,500 from 260,750. 

September 15, 2016: Applications edged up 1,000 to 260,000; four-week average dropped to 260,750.  
 
September 8, 2016: 259,000, down 4,000. Four-week moving average, 261,250, down from 263,000.