Don't Worry -- Be Happy -- Rivian -- At The Edge -- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48863RIVIAN.

Link here.

From The Wall Street Journal. Link here.

From the linked article: 

Electric truck maker Rivian says the rollback of fuel economy rules in the U.S. is holding up $100 million of revenue, a sign of how changes to automotive policy under the Trump administration are starting to hurt the electric-vehicle industry.  

Rivian and its rivals have generated hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue selling credits tied to the nation’s fuel economy rules. But after the Trump administration removed penalties for violating those standards, the nation’s top automotive regulator stopped issuing paperwork necessary to finalize those credits, leaving EV makers in the lurch. 

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the change was part of moves to overturn Biden-era EV rules and address Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, known as CAFE. “NHTSA is focusing on fixing CAFE standards to make cars more affordable again,” a NHTSA spokesperson said. “When that process is complete, we will return to issuing compliance letters to manufacturers.”

Last week, the Zero Emission Transportation Association, an EV trade group, filed a petition to the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C., asking the court to intercede. The group wants to force NHTSA to resume issuing the so-called compliance letters—certifications that show how much each automaker complies with or violates the nation’s fuel economy rules. ZETA declined to comment.

The dispute highlights a lesser-known part of the U.S. auto industry: The buying and selling of so-called regulatory credits. Revenue from these credits has been a reliable stream for EV makers and a hefty expense for legacy carmakers whose fleets contain gas-guzzling pickups and SUVs.

Credit trading is a common practice used by governments to get industries to comply with environmental regulations, according to financial analysts and environmental organizations. Carmakers whose vehicles exceed gas-mileage rules can generate credits and sell those to competitors who are in violation of the rules, helping offset any fines they may face. 

The ticker:

Anticipation -- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48862INVESTING.

The only "thing" that explains this is FOMO and MOJO. We've moved away from YOLO a long time ago.

Okay ... then there's this:

Tariffs, smariffs. LOL. 

Blame it on the bossa nova. 

China Said To Be Introducing Miniature SSD Cards -- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48861ARCHIVES.

Similar to GoPro's microSD cards.

This seems to be a solution to a problem solved decades ago. 

This seems uneventful.

Link at The Verge. 

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Pharmaceuticals

Eli Lilly says it will raise European prices of its medicines as Trump pushes for US price cuts. 

Link to The Barron's.

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Ukraine

Trump says Putin ready to make deal on Ukraine. US hopes to include Zelenskyy. -- Source.

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iPhone

Thinnest ever.-- Source.

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OPEC -- Has A Problem

Brazil and Guyana both have large projects coming on-stream imminently. Guyana to add 300,000 bopd beginning next month, September, 2025, and Brazil to add 400,000 bopd later this year (2025). Eric Nuttal.

BRK -- Warren Buffett -- Portfolio Updated -- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48860BRK.

Link here.

In most recent filing:

AAPL:

• BRK sold 20 million shares of Apple stock;
• still, AAPL remains BRK's largest holding;
• at its peak, BRK ownd over 915 million shares;
• now, down to 280 million shares
• now totals about 22% of BRK's portfolio as of June 30, 2025
• Apple pays 0.45%;
  

UNH:

• bought 5 million shares at an estimated price of $411
• today, shares selling for $270; after hours, after announcement, $300 / share
• UNH pays 3.26%;
• UNH is an undeniable health insurance Goliath
• my hunch: Buffett knows insurance; 
• he sees something in UNH that he thinks he can turn around.
  

More at The Street.

Here's what super-investors have been buying, link here:

Here's what caught my eye among the four lists:

• still a lot of tech -- Mag 7 --  including AAPL, being bought;
• UNH: appears on all four lists;
• everything else: pretty much a hodgepodge of things.
  

Other:

• Bill Ackman opens new $1-billion position in Amazon.

BRK's two other mystery stocks, Barron's and comment:

• home builder Lennar;
• Nucor;
• "It’s a mild surprise that Berkshire sought confidentiality for such small investments relative to the total size of its equity portfolio of nearly $300 billion."

End-Of-Day Report -- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48859B.

Social Security: let's start the discussion. The tea leaves suggest the Social Security COLA increase for next year will be 2.9%.

MDU: raises dividend by 8%.

The New Yorker: every month, I ask myself why I continue to subscribe to The New Yorker. Not today!. 

The current issue has a 16-page article on how President Trump invests in America. It's behind a paywall, so later, I will summarize the article. But it will take awhile. There's ever indication that Trump will come out of his presidency wealthier than Hunder Biden, but it could be close. It would be nice if The New Yorker would do the same for both the Obamas and the Bidens. And, of course, I don't think anyone could out-do Barack Obama, coming from where he was when he started to where he is now. So, I put the "presidency" jackpot winners in this order. I'm not measuring net worth; I'm measuring "where they were before the family presidency -- where they ended up after the family presidency":

• Hunter Biden
• Barack Obama
• Hillary and Bill Clinton
• the Trump family

PGA: with two holes left to play, Scottie Scheffler is now tied for first in the BMW Fedex tournament. 

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Back to the Bakken

MDU: raises dividend by 8%. 

WTI: $63.96. Up over 2%! Whoo-hoo!

Active rigs: 31.

Five new permits, #42215 - #42219, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR
• Fields: Last Chance (4); Baker
• Comments:
• CLR has permits for three Louisville FIU wells and two Louisville Federal wells, NESW 7-153-100, 
• to be sited 1974 / 2062 FSL ad 1412 / 1504 FWL.

Trump Changes Everything (TCE) -- Does This President Ever Sleep? August 14, 2025

Locator: 48858TCE.

Breaking: BRK takes new stake in United Health; sells more AAPL. United Health surges. After hours, AAPL down slightly. Of no consequence. We'll see more tomorrow. Obviously.

Breaking: Trump expresses interest in Intel. Link here. 

This is less about an investment / US chip security than about politics. See below. 

There is some suggestion that Intel is in much more trouble than "we" know, and Trump doesn't want Intel to fail before the 2028 election. Intel doesn't have to do well compared to the other chip companies; it just has to "thrive," and at least "survive." Everything I've read suggests that Intel is in huge trouble. If Intel were to fail before 2028, one can almost guarantee huge trouble for the GOP in the presidential election.

By the way, everything I've seen with regard to Trump suggests that he is going to show Americans very, very clearly the difference between the GOP and the guy running for mayor in NYC, AOC (taking on Chuck Schumer), Waltz in Minnesota, and Newsom in California. Trump knows how important the mid-terms are. Ohio has 15 congressional districts; 10 are held by the GOP; five by the other guys. California? 9 held by the GOP; the rest, 43, held by the Democrats. Two districts north of San Francisco are held by the GOP and one district south of Legoland is held by the GOP.

By the way, if Trump secures some kind of deal in Ukraine, could Putin-Trump-Zelenskyy share a Nobel Peace Prize. Up to three individuals can share a Nobel Prize.

Quick: if anyone said he/she had United Health on their radar scope vis-a-vis Warren Buffett ... they're lying. LOL.

As of now, there is no publicly available record of any analyst specifically predicting that Warren Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway would acquire a significant stake in UnitedHealth Group (UNH). The recent announcement that Berkshire Hathaway purchased 5 million shares of UnitedHealth, valued at approximately $1.57 billion, took many in the financial community by surprise.

Apple pays 0.45%. UNH pays 3.3%. For every billion dollars, $4.5 million vs $33 million. AAPL has been and is likely to be "dead money"; UNH is so low (historically) it can only go up. Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant move on Warren Buffett's part. 

Quick: what state is JD Vance from? What is Intel doing in Ohio?

Intel is heavily invested in Ohio, particularly in Licking County, where they are building two new leading-edge chip factories. This $28 billion project, known as Intel Ohio One, aims to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing capacity and create a new chipmaking ecosystem. The project is a significant part of Intel's IDM 2.0 strategy and is expected to generate thousands of jobs and attract further investment in the region.

None of this is rocket science.

Ohio used to be a swing state. Since Trump, Ohio has been red. This move, if it occurs with Intel, solidifies Ohio for JD Vance.

Now, back to Trump.

A reader sent me this link.

I replied, not ready for prime-time: 

In fact that's quite interesting. That's exactly what "companies" in England did during the time of Shakespeare.  The East India Company and the West India Company, for example. Shakespeare invested with at least one share in the Virginia Company of London which would be very, very similar to what could become the "Panama Company."  Trump is really, really changing the way folks think about monetizing everything -- and really, really moving into government (public) ownership in private companies. Trump is solving intractable problems by thinking outside the box: having Nvidia and AMD pay the tariffs rather than China was incredibly brilliant.

DOD owning an interest in MP Materials. Also brilliant.

Taking DARPA to the next level.

Immediately following, just as I reached out to Hulu to get an update on a) the PGA tournament; and, b) the market, this breaking news: Trump administration said to be discussing taking a stake in Intel. INTC surges 8 percent on the news.  

I wonder if Nancy Pelosi was given that information before it was released to the trading public? Regardless, Chuck Schumer, el al, are going to go nuts.

Immediately after that news, just before the market closes, all indices go green despite a bad start at the day with the PPI release.

Yes, Trump:

• thinking outside the box; and,
• taking DARPA to the next level.

I've thought about this a lot since Trump became president. Trump sees the incredible amount of money he and the US government control and he is looking for ways to leverage those deep pockets. Expanding government involvement with 529s, for example, was also brilliant.

I hope over time, he expands that largess to children born before 2025. Maybe expand it by one year, every year, by one year at both ends. So instead of just 2025 and 2030, next year expand it to babies born 2024 to 2031. At same time, consider raising "ages" in social security (and raising the threshold when income is still subject to SS withholding. Of course that won't happen under Trump, but it's something the Democrats might be willing to do. 

I'm trying to think wouldn't it be wonderful if everyone could be a billionaire in the US? Somehow, it seems those protesting have no idea what they are protesting. Why not ask the billionaires to support specific causes rather than "fighting to take back our country." The protestors seem incredibly naive.

Archives --- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48857ARCHIVES.

Target / Ulta: wow, that didn't last long. The two will end their in-store partnership next year (2026). I wonder which of the two was more disappointed with how the relationship worked out.

Investors winning: the US stock market is now twice as big as the entire US economy. I thought the US stock market was the US economy. 

Debbie Downer is not impressed. See social medial comments.

US ports since Trump has become president. Color me really, really, really impressed. Link here. This should be a stand-along blog. We'll see later.

Look at the three ports on the west coast -- they each saw a huge surge in volume while the east coast ports all saw a decrease in volume -- pulling forward from China all those products to beat the tariffs -- and now Trump has extended the deadline for another 90 days. LOL.

Finally, Barbie, link here. This, too, should be a stand-along blog. We'll see later.

This is really a cool story. From the linked article:

Mario Paglino and Gianni Grossi, designers who turned Barbie dolls into one-of-a-kind works of art that sold for thousands of dollars, including one that fetched more than $15,000 at a charity auction, died on July 27 in Italy. Mr. Paglino was 52; Mr. Grossi was 54.

The Italian news service ANSA reported their deaths, in a car collision with another vehicle that was going the wrong way on the A4 Turin-Milan highway.

The two men, who married in New York City in 2022, lived and worked together in Novara, west of Milan. They were celebrities in the global Barbie doll-collecting community, which is vast and has numerous Facebook groups, some with more than 100,000 members.

Depending on their interests, fans “buy Barbies that have been created by Mattel, or they buy limited-edition and one-of-a-kind Barbies that doll artists make,” Kim Culmone, the head of design for dolls at Mattel, said in an interview.

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The Book of the Day

My Winter on the Nile, Charles DudleyWarner, c. 1876.

Gutenberg.

The three wise men:

• Charles Dudley Warner. Wiki.
• 1829 - 1900; lived through the US Civil War; friend of Mark Twain; probably co-wrote with Twain
• both Twain and Warner wrote about their journeys to the Middle East, though they did not travel together
• one can ask ChatGPT to compare and contrast the two.
• shared stories while living in Hartford, CT
• they co-wrote The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today; the only book Twain co-authored; although there is some suggestion Twain had a major role in editing (perhaps even writing parts of US Grant's memoirs.
• US Grant: 1822 - 1885 (almost exact contemporaries)
• Mark Twain: 1835 - 1910 (came along a bit later but still of the same generation)

It's interesting that Twain is the one Americans remember, while Warner is long forgotten. ChatGPT explains why.

As for me, I prefer what little of Warner I have read over that of Twain. 

My Winter on The Nile: my hunch -- Warner's description of Egypt, the Nile, Cairo (1870s) have not changed much in 150 years.

The best part of Warner's Winter on the Nile: the language of the Mideast. Etymology of many words the English language has appropriated. Example(s) later.

Does Trump Ever Sleep? Now It's A Pharmaceutical Strategic Supply -- This Is Very, Very Clever -- Very, Very Impressive -- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48856BIGPHARMA.

This initiative was long overdue. Long overdue. Amazing. President Trump has been in office about seven months. 

It would be fun to discuss how I see these things develop. I noticed it when part of the USAF intelligence team working strategic issues. but the discussion would fall on deaf ears. LOL. This, by the way, separates the highly successful companies from the less successful companies, all things being equal. 

The White House expects government policy makers to work on "Trump time": get things done as fast as possible without screwing things up.

AI Overview

Key pharmaceutical initiatives as of August 14, 2025:

 

Today, August 14, 2025, sees several important initiatives in the pharmaceutical space across different sectors:

 

1. Drug price reduction and domestic manufacturing

• Executive Orders: President Donald J. Trump has signed Executive Orders aimed at reducing drug prices for Americans and taxpayers.
• The orders aim to bring US prescription drug prices in line with those of other developed nations.
• Actions include ensuring foreign countries are not undercutting market prices and establishing price targets for manufacturers.
• The Secretary of Health and Human Services is also instructed to explore mechanisms for direct drug purchases from manufacturers at "Most-Favored-Nation" prices.
• FDA PreCheck Program: The FDA has launched the "FDA PreCheck" program to streamline the review process for new domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing facilities, aiming to boost US drug production and reduce reliance on foreign sources.
• This program involves early engagement and feedback between manufacturers and the FDA during facility design, construction, and pre-production.

2. Supply chain resilience and strategic reserves

• Strategic Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient Reserve (SAPIR™): Phlow Corp. has lauded an Executive Order focused on operationalizing the Strategic Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient Reserve (SAPIR™).
• SAPIR is a national initiative to strengthen the pharmaceutical supply chain and ensure access to essential medicines during emergencies.
• Phlow has been collaborating with the government since 2020 on the development of SAPIR, aiming to address the country's dependence on foreign sources for essential medicine ingredients.
• Domestic Manufacturing Showcase: On Demand Pharmaceuticals hosted HHS officials to showcase their domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing capabilities, including a virtual demonstration of real-time formulation of an essential medicine, highlighting their distributed Quality Management System and agile production at the point of care.

3. Orphan drug designation in the EU

• Sanofi's Rilzabrutinib: The European Medicines Agency (EMA) has granted orphan designation to Sanofi's rilzabrutinib for IgG4-related disease (IgG4-RD). This designation is for treatments of rare conditions affecting a small number of people in the EU. This decision follows positive Phase 2 study results.

4. Addressing challenges in the pharmaceutical industry

• PBM Reform: Legislation like the PBM Reform Act is being pursued to increase transparency and accountability in the Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) industry.
• Expanding Pharmacist Roles: States are broadening the scope of practice for pharmacists, such as allowing them to provide HIV prevention medications and dispense hormonal contraceptives.
• Managing Complex Diseases: There is continued focus on improving diagnosis and treatment for complex diseases like Alzheimer's.
• Targeted Medication Safety: Efforts are being made to improve medication safety practices.
• Addressing Youth Substance Use: A CDC campaign is addressing youth substance use and mental health.

This summary provides a snapshot of key initiatives and developments as of today, August 14, 2025. The pharmaceutical landscape is constantly evolving with ongoing research, development, and policy changes.

Nvidia's Rubin -- The Follow Up To Nvidia's Blackwell -- Is "On Track" -- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48855CHIPS.

The Nvidia Rubin is a next-generation AI superchip, featuring both a Rubin GPU and a Vera CPU. It's designed to succeed the Blackwell architecture and will utilize HBM4 memory. 

• the Rubin GPU will be paired with the Vera CPU, a custom-designed processor, to work together seamlessly. 
• mass production is slated for late 2025, with availability expected in early 2026. 
• it will feature advanced HBM4 memory and is expected to deliver significant performance improvements, particularly in AI training and inference tasks. 
• Vera CPU: The Vera CPU is Nvidia's first custom-designed CPU and is built to work in close coordination with the Rubin GPU. 
• release timeline: The Vera Rubin superchip is scheduled for release in 2026, with initial availability expected in the second half of the year. 
• key technologies: The Rubin architecture will incorporate TSMC's 3nm process and leverage NVIDIA's first-ever chiplet design. It also includes a new NVLink 6 architecture and next-generation networking components like CX9 smart NICs. 
• performance Ggoals: The Vera Rubin system aims to achieve a significant increase in performance compared to previous generations, potentially multiplying exaflops by 15 and scaling the future of AI infrastructure. For example, a fully equipped NVL 144 rack system is expected to deliver 3.6 exaflops of FP4 inference compute.

This Is So Incredibly British -- LOL -- Maxing Out The Range Of An EV Polestar -- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48854EVS.

"Bog standard" is a British English slang term meaning ordinary, basic, or with no special features. It's used to describe something that is average, common, or unexceptional. The term is generally considered to be slightly disparaging, implying a lack of quality or innovation. 

Link here.

Seriously, read this article very, very closely. This is incredibly absurd. Reminds me of that television commercial extolling an EV 18-wheeler -- going downhill -- LOL. The Brits set the record doing it their way and Guinness accepted it. LOL.

A bog-standard Polestar 3 crossover just set a new world record for the longest journey travelled by an electric SUV on a single charge.

The EV, fitted with the Long Range battery and a single rear motor, went a whopping 581.3 miles before needing to be recharged. That’s a lot more than the Polestar 3’s official EPA range rating of 350 miles. LOL.

The record-setting trip was done on public roads in the United Kingdom, taking 22 hours and 57 minutes to complete. 350 miles / 23 hours / three blokes.

That’s a very long time, which is why the team had three drivers who took turns driving the electric crossover. Exactly how I plan my trips when driving cross-country across the US.

It’s rather impressive, but doing some quick maths reveals that the average speed during the record run was 25.3 mph.

The team left at 2 a.m. to take advantage of clear roads in the morning, sticking to the flat roads of the Norfolk area. At the end of the very long trip, the car had an average energy efficiency of 5.1 miles/kilowatt-hour (19.5 kWh/100 miles).

The record was made official by Guinness World Records’ own judge, Paulina Sapinska, while UK-based fleet management company Webfleet was responsible for gathering independently verified video footage, odometer readings, GPS readings and battery state of charge data. The car was not modified in any way and used standard 20-inch wheels fitted with standard Michelin Sport 4 EV tires.

The Polestar 3 is assembled in Ridgeville, South Carolina, as well as in Chengdu, China. In Long Range Single Motor guise, the BMW iX rival is powered by a rear-mounted electric motor that makes 299 horsepower and 361 pound-feet of torque. The battery, supplied by China’s CATL, has a usable energy content of 107 kWh and can be fast-charged at up to 250 kW, making for a 10% to 80% top-up in 30 minutes.

At the end of the day, this was simply a publicity stunt.  

Sempra's Activity In Texas -- Amazing -- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48853TEXAS.

Sempra: 

• link here, August 11, 2025;
• link here, February 26, 2025.

And:

Rumors Of Shale's Peak Were Premature -- Oilprice -- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48852B.

Link here.

Has NYC's Economy Gone Over The Cliff? August 14, 2025

Locator: 48851NYC.

Chart of the day, link here.

Texas: look at this from RBN Energy today --

Odds are there’s never been a busier, more frantic time for natural-gas-related infrastructure development in Texas and Louisiana than right now.

Construction is underway or imminent at no fewer than seven Gulf Coast LNG export terminals with a combined capacity of 16 Bcf/d.

Now, look at this out of New York City. Can you even see the bar for 1H25?

From the linked NY Times article:

Employers in New York City significantly reduced hiring in the first half of the year, adding just 956 private-sector jobs, the city’s slowest growth in payrolls outside a recession in decades.

During the same period last year, companies in the city hired 66,000 additional workers. But companies have since slowed their hiring, and major industries that fuel New York’s economy — finance and insurance; hospitality; and retail — have shed jobs.

Around the country, the labor market has started showing cracks as the effects of President Trump’s economic policies begin to settle in. Other large cities have also seen sluggish job growth, with metro areas like Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Jose all losing a small number of jobs so far this year.

“The New York City economy has gone sideways so far this year,” said Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “New York is a leading indicator, and the flattening of employment is now showing up nationally.”

Thursday, August 14, 2025

Locator: 48850B.

For seniors: y'all should be celebrating the PPI / inflation numbers today -- open a bottle of champagne. 

These are some of the last numbers the government will see before deciding on COLA jump in social security and military pensions for next calendar year. Right now it appears the COLA will be on the "high side," rather than the "low side." Let's hope next month's reading -- the last reading the government will consider for determining the COLA for social security / military pensions -- will come in even higher.

The power grid: from The New York Times -- for such a long article, doesn't provide any real news. For the archives. Link here.

Reminder: some weeks ago I stated that there would be no rate cuts by the Fed this calendar year. Today's inflation numbers certainly bring into question all that excitement / talk yesterday that the Fed would have three cuts before the end of this year.

GE Vernova: yesterday I mentioned this company somewhere, I forget where. It might have been on the blog; might have been on a "sister-blog"; or, it might have been in a sidebar discussion with a reader (e-mail). Today, it was one of few companies / stock tickers mentioned by Cramer this morning.

DE: after looking good recently, down 8% in early morning trading. 

Not everything is down today: up today --

• CVX
• Sherwin-Williams
• AVGO
• AMZN
• NFLX
• AAPL -- albeit not by much.
  

PPI: Cramer not concerned. Feels that BLS data is now very questionable; not political. Due to agency being cut too much by DOGE.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $63.60. Up 1.52%.

New wells:

• Friday, August 15, 2025: 27 for the month, 75 for the quarter, 505 for the year,
• None.
• Thursday, August 14, 2025: 27 for the month, 75 for the quarter, 505 for the year, 
• 39521, conf, BR, State Dodge 3D TFH,

RBN Energy: wave of LNG FIDs and data center mania spur a flood of gas pipelines projects. Archived.

Odds are there’s never been a busier, more frantic time for natural-gas-related infrastructure development in Texas and Louisiana than right now.

Construction is underway or imminent at no fewer than seven Gulf Coast LNG export terminals with a combined capacity of 16 Bcf/d.

Big-tech firms and midstreamers are touting the potential for several Bcf/d more in gas-fired power demand for data centers in the two states. And developers are advancing a slew of inter- and intrastate pipeline projects aimed at bringing Permian, Haynesville and other gas to where it will be needed. It’s admittedly hard to keep track of it all, but in today’s RBN blog, we take a snapshot of where things stand today and highlight the highlights.