Monday, November 6, 2017

High-Intensity Fracks -- Just A Reminder -- November 6, 2017

For newbies, I've updated a few high-intensity fracks: link here.

The Political Page

Every generation or so someone comes along and ...

Something tells me the guys in this picture will never kneel when the national anthem is played.

So far, no missile launches. Kim Jung-On may still launch a few bottle rockets, but right now, not a peep. I know the mainstream media is hoping they can blame President Trump for anything Kim does.

What a great photo. A rock star. In his own way, he's out-reaganing Reagan.

Flashback to election night: worth a read.

Cutting Taxes

This is a pretty cool story. But you have to know how to read to understand it.

Off The Net Until Tomorrow

The Great Pretender, The Platters
The Great Pretender, Freddie Mercury

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- November 6, 2017

This will download as a PDF on your "desktop" most likely -- the current slides for Oasis.

As soon as I saw these slides, I sent this note to Don who sent me the link:
Wow, wow, wow, look at the EUR type curves for Wild Basin -- way greater than 1.5 million boe and then they say "constrained production."
I know I am way too exuberant about the Bakken, but something tells me, "they've only just begun."
Slides from the presentation. I'm too tired, too exhausted to add any comments to the slides -- maybe tomorrow -- you are on your own:

Maybe This Will Help Me Get A Second Wind

And so it goes:
“Music has always been a matter of Energy to me, a question of Fuel. Sentimental people call it Inspiration, but what they really mean is Fuel. I have always needed Fuel. I am a serious consumer. On some nights I still believe that a car with the gas needle on empty can run about fifty more miles if you have the right music very loud on the radio.” -- Hunter S. Thompson (link).
In my "retirement program" some years ago, that was the quote on the front page. Inside each "program" was a CD with my 20 favorite songs.


Yes, Sir, I Can Boogie, Baccara

Ten Best US Destinations To Retire -- Livabilty.Com -- November 6, 2017

From via CNBC: the ten best US destinations to retire -- no two cities fell in the same state:
1. Walnut Creek, CA (I once knew someone from Walnut Creek)
2. Reno, NV (I have a distant cousin who lives in Reno)
3. Boca Rataon, FL
4. Plano, TX (just down the road from where I currently live)
5. Sioux Falls, SD (I went to college in Sioux Falls; my mother lived there for many, many years)
6. Vancouver, WA (can't recall if I've been there but our daughter in Portland, OR, enjoys going to Vancouver)
7. Birmingham, AL (we lived just south of Birmingham for a couple years many centuries ago)
8. Littleton, CO (don't even know where it is)
9. Bismarck, ND (no comment necessary)
10. Salt Lake City, UT (seems out of place on this list of ten)
So, there you have it. I've pretty much been to all the places, know most of them pretty well, and think Grapevine is just fine, thank you very much. But as I've said many times, no matter where I live, I would say good things about the location. No use complaining about some things.

Net Worth

See first comment, from this linked article:
Much like your GPA in high school, if you were to point to one figure in your life that summed up how you were doing – it's probably your net worth.
Right now, the one figure in my life that sums up how I am doing: the number of hours I get to spend with our granddaughters every week. But, then, yes, I agree, net worth is one way of measuring how life is going.

How Did I Miss This One?

Before you comment, read about "Pussycat" on wiki --

Mississippi, Pussycat
Prior to forming the band, the three sisters were telephone operators in Limburg (The Netherlands). 
I love the steel guitar. 

UND EERC Has Permits For Two Wildcat Wells -- Outside Of Current Area Of Drilling Activity -- November 6, 2017


December 2, 2017: from The Bismarck Tribune--
A rare drilling rig is at work in central North Dakota this week, but crews aren’t looking for oil. They’re drilling two exploratory wells in the middle of coal country to help researchers determine the feasibility of storing carbon dioxide deep underground rather than emitting it into the atmosphere.
It’s part of a study nicknamed Project CarbonSAFE, led by the University of North Dakota’s Energy and Environmental Research Center and funded, in part, by the U.S. Department of Energy.
Researchers will investigate the geology more than a mile underground to determine if it is suitable for the storage of carbon dioxide captured from coal-based energy facilities.
November 29, 2017: update with photos here

November 7, 2017: over at the UND EERC site, click on "Publications" and then search "carbon capture" and see an endless number of UND EERC articles on carbon capture on the prairie.
November 7, 2017: see first comment --
These two wells are being drilled to test geologic formations for carbon (CO2) storage potential. They are in close proximity to coal fired power plants in the area.
Original Post 

 One of two permits UND EERC has for a wildcat well:
  • 34244, loc, UND EERC, BNI 1, SESE 27-142-84, Oliver County; far east of the current drilling in the Williston Basin
The graphic:

Center is the county seat of Oliver County. Center is about 40 miles northwest of Bismarck, ND.

The other permit is in Mercer County (a google search of the blog will bring up several references to Mercer County). The well:
  • 34243, loc, UND EERC, Flemmer 1, SWSW 32-145N-89W, Mercer County
For more on geology, click on the geology tag at the bottom of the page. A recent post on the petroleum systems in North Dakota is at this link.  A stratigraphic "map" is linked at the sidebar at the right.

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #4,783 -- November 6, 2017


November 7, 2017: $33 billion? (See original post below.) Chicken feed. Prince Salman is after $800 billion which rounds to $1 trillion. From The WSJ.
The Saudi government is aiming to confiscate cash and other assets worth as much as $800 billion in its broadening crackdown on alleged corruption among the kingdom’s elite, according to people familiar with the matter.
Several prominent businessmen are among those who have been arrested in the days since Saudi authorities launched the crackdown on Saturday, by detaining more than 60 princes, officials and other prominent Saudis.
The country’s central bank, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, said late Tuesday that it has frozen the bank accounts of “persons of interest” and said the move is “in response to the Attorney General’s request pending the legal cases against them.”
This comment at the article:
-- Prince Abdulaziz bin Fahd, the youngest son of late King Fahd, has reported died in a gun-battle with Saudi security forces while resisting arrest.
--Prince Turki bin Mohamed bin Fahd,son ofKing Fahd's eldest surviving son has reportedly fled to Iran to seek asylum. Link here.

Original Post

Every month for quite some time I've been posting Saudi Arabia's foreign reserve account. It's been dropping about $5 billion/month -- maybe as little as $3 billion (lately) to as much as $8 billion (early on). It was hard to put that into perspective.

Today, Bloomberg has this story: Saudi corruption purge snares $33 billion of net worth in Riyadh.

Thirty-three billion dollars works out to about one-half year of lost foreign reserves for Saudi Arabia. From the linked article:
  • three of the kingdom's richest people are under arrest
  • the list includes Prince Alwaleed bin Talal: #50 on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index, ith $19 bilion
  • also being held, the kingdom's second- and fifth-wealthiest people
  • also, and this is a biggie, a name many Americans might recognize: Bakr Binladin, a scion of one of the country's biggest construction empires -- a brother of that monster, Osama bin Laden

Some Great DUCs Reported; MRO With Two Huge Wells; Nine Point WIth One Huge Well; Look At The IPs For Two Of These Wells -- November 6, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs523764190181

Six new permits:
  • Operator: BR
  • Field: Twin Valley
  • Comments: BR has permits for a 2-well pad and a 4-well pad near each other in section 5-152-97
Three permits renewed:
  • EOG: three Van Hook permits in Mountrail County
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 30549, 1,686, MRO, Torrison 24-8TFH, Bailey, 45 stages; 8.1 million lbs, t10/17; cum 3K over 4 days; 
  • 30550, 4,516, MRO, Brush 24-8H, Bailey, 45 stages, 8.8 million lbs; t9/17; cum 59K in 26 days; 
  • 32290, 419, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21A, Heart Butte, 40 stages; 7.6 million lbs, t10/17; cum 12K over 24 days; 
  • 33517, 828, Nine Point Energy, Trinity 155-102-23-14-7H, Squires, 50 stages, 10 million lbs, t10/17; cum --  
  • 33518, 3,472, Nine Point Energy, Trinity 155-102-23-14-8H, Squires, 50 stages, 10 million lbs, t10/17; cum --

The Market And Energy Page, T+289 -- November 6, 2017

Tesla watch: wow, wow, wow. Buried in the news today -- Tesla's head of battery engineering exits. Wow, wow, wow.  Not aware that it was mentioned on CNBC -- didn't hear it mentioned on "Fast Money" or "Mad Money."

Market: all three major indices hit new records, albeit, not by much. New highs on the NYSE, 159, including -- Deere; McDonalds; Royal Dutch Shell; Statoil; Total.
  • CVX did not hit a new high but apparently one of the leaders on the Dow
  • 48 new lows
Red Robin Gourmet -- looks like their bottomless French Fries have morphed into their shares -- bottomless -- shares dropped about $12 today to settle around $55. Oh, oh. After hours, down %14.65 to $51.35. Earnings.

Does anyone remember California Resources? Shares spiked 18% despite reporting a huge loss and paying no dividend. Hope springs eternal.
Former VP Of Technology At MRO Appointed To Lead The US EIA

Full article:
US President Donald Trump has nominated Linda A. Capuano, currently a fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy’s Center for Energy Studies, to lead the US Energy Information Administration. 
Capuano’s previous experience includes working as vice-president of technology at Marathon Oil Corp. in Houston from 2008 to 2013, the White House said.
Something tells me we're going to see fewer meaningless tweets about wind and solar energy. At least hope so.

There Seems To Be A Trend Developing

This is a fairly steep curve (graphic below), but it's not the steepest curve in the historical price of oil.

But I think John Kemp is noticing a trend here:

Apple Product Availability

Incredible technology.

Link here.

At the link, on the right side, zoom in to that part of the map where you live or that area that interests you.

Then, go to the left side, and click what Apple product you want.

Stores with that product in-store will pop-up.

Truly amazing.

If serious about getting something, go through the process above and if your item is available, quickly call the store to see if they will hold the product for you.

It was interesting to note that in my area, of the three colors available for the iPhone X, the "gold" is out-of-stock. Both black and silver are still available.

The Political Page

This seems to be a no-brainer. In wide-ranging tax bill, GOP considers removing the ObamaCare mandate.

Whiting Slides From Earnings Call For 3Q17-- November 6, 2017

I posted "important slides from recent CLR presentation." A reader suggested I look at Whiting's slides from recent earnings calls. Earnings for 3Q17 were posted earlier.

Here are three that caught my attention but there are many, many more at the link:

  • Whiting, like CLR, is looking at EURs of 1.5 million boe
  • "enhanced completion": higher amounts of proppant (8 - 10 million lbs); more stages 
  • only one of several slides on Whiting's decline curves is posted below

Tribes Go To War -- November 6, 2017

"Mideast on the brink" at the sidebar at the right.

Other Market And Energy News

Millennials. Lots of talk these past few weeks about "millennials." Time to re-look at the "definitions. From an earlier post:
I had forgotten the "definition" of "Generation Z" but vaguely recalled blogging about it:
  • iGen, generation Z, centennials: 1998 -- 
  • oldest iGen: 1998 - 2005 (my thoughts -- teens in 2017)
  • middle iGen: 2006 - 2011 (my thoughts -- middle schoolers in 2017)
  • younger iGen: 2012 - (my thoughts -- toddlers in 2017)
  • younger millennials (part of generation Y, children of baby boomers): 1992 - 1997 (in 2017: 20 - 25)
  • older millennials (part of generation Y, children of baby boomers): 1983 - 1991 (in 2017:  26 - 34)
  • generation X: 1965 - 1982 (no precise dates, late baby boomers)
  • baby boomers: 1946 - 1964  
Definitions (from this site)
  • iGen, generation Z, centennials: 1996 --
  • millennials or generation Y: 1977 - 1995 (18-year span)
  • generation X: 1965 - 1976 (11-year span)
  • baby boomers: 1946 - 1964 (18-year span)
  • traditionalists or silent generation: born 1945 and before 

Five Important CLR Graphs From September, 2017, Presentation

Link here.

The graphics:

  • among the bloggers, Mike Filloon was (among?) the first to note the 1.5 million boe EURs in the Bakken
  • most interesting, regarding EURs, CLR "normalizes" them with "boe/$"
  • I assume the "drilling cost" is "drilling cost only" and does not include fracking costs (I could be wrong); for me, completed well costs include "drilling" + "completion (fracking)"; completed well costs (CWC) are generally in the region of $6 million to $10 million in the Bakken

Hess Reports Three Huge Antelope Wells -- High Stage, Moderate Proppant -- November 6, 2017

Hess reports three huge Antelope wells; high stage; moderate proppant: 

Monday, November 6, 2017: 5 for the month; 42 for the quarter
  • 32860, 2,708, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-2, Antelope, 60 stages, 4.2 million lbs (small/large), t10/17; cum --;
Sunday, November 5, 2017: 4 for the month; 41 for the quarter
  • 32861, 2,202, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-3, Antelope Three Forks, 60 stages; 6 million lbs (small/large), t10/17; cum --
Saturday, November 4, 2017: 3 for the month; 40 for the quarter
  • 32862, 1,952, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-LE-153-84-2833H-1, Antelope, 60 stages; 6 million lbs (small/large), t10/17; cum --  
The graphic:

The Dinwoodie wells:
  • 33238, conf, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-8,
  • 33237, conf, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-7,
  • 33236, conf, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-6,
  • 33235, conf, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-5,
  • 33234, conf, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-4,
  • 32862, 1,952, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-LE-153-84-2833H-1, Antelope, Sanish, 60 stages; 6 million lbs (small/large), t10/17; cum --
  • 32861, 2,202, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-3, Antelope, Sanish, Three Forks, 60 stages; 6 million lbs (small/large), t10/17; cum --
  • 32860, 2,708, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-2, Antelope, Sanish, 60 stages, 4.2 million lbs (small/large), t10/17; cum --;
  • 19887, 714, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-1, Antelope, Sanish, t7/11; cum 221K 9/17; off-line of course as of 8/17; frack data never provided; permitted as a double lateral, the middle Bakken lateral 2 and a Three Forks lateral 1; only the Three Forls was drilled; the lateral was drilled 100% within the upper portion of the Three Forks with greater than 70% of the well bore to be completed within the ideal preferred target porosity;

Concho Reports Another Good Quarter, Outperforming Well Results -- FIlloon -- November 6, 2017

Over at SeekingAlpha.

Improvements in Delaware Basin.

WTI Futures Above $56 -- November 6, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs553764190181

RBN Energy: natural gas supply to increasingly compete for pipeline capacity, demand.
The bottom line is that if transportation or demand constraints — or both — develop, it will precipitate some fierce competition between supply regions and, inevitably, lower gas prices. That becomes an issue for dry gas basins that don’t have crude oil or natural gas liquids to economically make up for lower gas prices, while basins with crude and liquids content, like the Permian and SCOOP/STACK, would be just fine, assuming crude prices hold up at that $50-something level. In other words, if constraints in the gas market get bad enough and gas prices get low enough, but crude producers continue to drill, then associated gas from crude-focused plays could squeeze out gas-dominant basins like the Marcellus/Utica and Haynesville.
If we put it all together, what the various arrows amount to is a train wreck of regional gas surpluses, with Marcellus/Utica, Rockies, Permian and SCOOP/STACK gas all fighting for capacity into the Gulf Coast export market. . But there is simply not enough pipeline capacity to make that happen. In other words, the market is in for a new round of capacity constraints, and until those bottlenecks are relieved by new pipes — such as projects in the works for moving Permian and STACK/SCOOP gas down to the Gulf — regional markets outside the Gulf Coast are bound for persistent weakness. The producer problem of weak basis differentials (the difference in regional prices and the national benchmark price at Henry Hub in Louisiana) in most of the growing gas basins is likely to stick around for at least another couple of years.
Happy November 6th: