Game 1, Warriors - Spurs, Sunday, 2:30 p.m. Central Time.
Never gets old:
"The supply and demand balance for 2018 looks very bad,” said Fared Mohamedi, chief economist at consultant The Rapidan Group in Washington. “That’s when the big fight is going to happen."All I know is that right now, the US has about 530 million bbls of crude oil in storage and 32 days of supply; historically, the US has had about 350 million bbls of crude oil in storage and 21 days of supply.
German solar panel maker SolarWorld AG has filed for insolvency, citing the effect of falling prices in the industry.
The company said late Wednesday its management had concluded that "due to the ongoing price erosion and the development of the business, the company no longer has a positive going concern prognosis."
It added that the firm is "over-indebted" and therefore obliged to launch insolvency proceedings. The company filed for insolvency Thursday at a court in Bonn, where it is headquartered.
Solar panel makers in Europe have long struggled with tough competition from manufacturers in China in particular.And reality.
He pointed to the futures market, where the curve could be headed into backwardation – a situation in which near-term oil futures trade at a premium to contracts further out. That structure points to concerns about a deficit in the short run, which is why front month contracts would trade at a higher price than deliveries six or twelve months away.A deficit in the short term? What universe is he living in?
Putting some of the jargon aside, Goldman is simply arguing that the oil market will be much tighter this year than most people seem to think. The investment bank forecasts returns on commodity prices on the order of 13.3 percent over the next three months and 12.2 percent over the next 12 months.It's been my impression that trying to decipher Goldman Sachs reasoning is akin to sorting out a vision from the Delphi oracle.
Higher than expected production from the US and other countries outside the cartel is offsetting curbs from some of the world’s biggest producers, Opec said, keeping global oil inventories stubbornly high and pressuring prices.
Opec’s latest monthly forecasts revised up production growth from outside the group by 58 per cent to almost 1m barrels in 2017, and said the world will require only 31.9m barrels a day of its crude on average this year.Again, by OPEC's reckoning: non-OPEC production (e.g., Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian) will / has increased production by almost 60 percent -- increased production by another 1 million bopd -- pretty much off-setting any OPEC production cuts.
That means demand for Opec’s oil is only 200,000 b/d higher than current levels of output, according to the data from consultants and energy analysts submitted to the group, despite making output cuts that are at least six times as large.
Although Opec’s figures suggest stockpiles will still drop in the second half of this year, it is dependent on output not rising further. The total production figure includes Libya and Nigeria, however, who are exempt from output cuts and whose production is set to recover in coming months after disruptions.
Kazakhstan is a major oil producer. The country’s estimated total petroleum and other liquids production was 1.698 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016. Oil field development in Kazakhstan reached two milestones in 2016.
In October 2016, Kashagan field resumed production after years of delays. In July 2016, the Tengizchevroil consortium made a final investment decision on a project to increase liquids production at the Tengiz field by about 260,000 b/d. --- EIA
Red tape, rising costs and declining crude prices are throttling exploration in Indonesia, the former OPEC member that now produces less oil than it uses.
Only 20 percent of the 287 onshore rigs operated by contractors for local and foreign explorers are at work, compared with 60 percent in 2012.
Four out of six offshore rigs are operational. The decline in drilling reflects uncertainty over regulation, a complicated permits system as well as high production costs that have deterred investments for new exploration.
It’s a challenge the government needs to tackle for success in its plan to overhaul the nation’s energy policy and lure as much as $200 billion to the sector over the next decade as domestic demand rises. A 2015 auction of oil and gas blocks failed because the terms offered weren’t attractive for bidders.Much more at the link. Including Bloomberg's masthead.
EOG currently has zero rigs in the Bakken, any thoughts when they may start up again??I'm curious if anyone has any thoughts or insight.
Tesla: over at SeekingAlpha, a contributor argues that it's energy business has collapsed.But then, for a similar story to appear at another source suggesting the same thing certainly got my attention. From The Street:
Tesla's (TSLA) acquisition of Solar City appears to have masked a decline in the company's power storage business, according to the company's latest 10-Q filing.
Tesla reported that energy generation and storage revenue rose $191.2 million, or 841% in the quarter ended March 31, compared with the same period a year earlier.
However, "this was primarily due to the inclusion of revenue from SolarCity, which we acquired on November 21, 2016, of $208.7 million, partially offset by a decrease in energy storage revenue of $17.4 million," the company said in its filing. That's a far less rosy situation than was forecast by CEO Elon Musk in August 2015, on the company's second-quarter earnings call shortly after Tesla introduced its Powerwall and Powerpack products for residential and commercial customers.I've gone back and archived the SeekingAlpha article.
U.S. exports of diesel and other distillates averaged 1.2 million barrels/day (MMb/d) in 2016, more than eight times their 2005 level and up slightly from 2015, another in a series of record-busting years for distillate exports. So far, 2017 looks like another winner. This year, though, a lot more distillate is being shipped south from Gulf Coast marine terminals to nearby Central America and South America, and less is being floated across the Atlantic to Western Europe. Today we consider recent trends in U.S. distillate exports and the significance of the export market to U.S. refiners.
Way back in the 1970s—literally a lifetime ago for many RBN blog readers—U.S. exports of diesel and other distillates averaged less than 3 Mb/d. That’s no typo; daily distillate exports on a typical day back in the Disco Era were less than 3,000 barrels. Today, in the Shale Era, that many barrels of distillate are being exported from U.S. marine terminals every three and a half minutes or so. (We did the math—2016 distillate exports averaged 1.2 MMb/d; divide that by 24 (hours in a day), then by 60 (minutes in an hour) and you get 826 barrels/minute.) It goes without saying, then, that distillate exports play a key role in the profitability of U.S. refineries, especially (as we’ll get to) those along the Gulf Coast, the send-off point for the vast majority of U.S. refined products shipped overseas. The same is true for gasoline exports.
Short-term contracts, dismantled infrastructure and lagging dayrates have long challenged shallow water drilling on the U.S. side of the Gulf of Mexico – but it’s the natural gas-belching shale plays that may finally turn the tide away from the shelf.
In January 2007, there were 82 jackup rigs drilling in the shallow water of the U.S. Gulf (GOM). By January this year, that figure had dwindled down to 12. At the end of March, 11 jackups remained on the shelf, according to Rigzone Data Services.Memo to self: update note to Jane Nielson.