Locator: 44697ISONE.
Friday morning: $367 / MWh in Provincetown, Cape Cod. In northern Maine. Also $367.
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Link here. It's a dynamic link.
Now, $275 / MWh.
Resource mix:
Locator: 44696GASOLINE.
For the good times.
January 16, 2025: a lot of things have
changed since 2020! Including the first Covid-19 lockdown which began
March 19, 2020 -- see date of last entry prior to this one. Biden
completed one term; stepped aside for Kamala Harris, who after spending
more than a billion dollars, lost to Donald Trump who will be swon in as
president in three or four or five days (depending on how you count).
He will be the second president ever to be sworn in on Martin Luther
King, Jr, federal holiday. The first was Ronald Reagan. Gasoline in
north Texas is running about $2.80 / gallon.
March 22, 2020:
my, how things have changed. Saudi again plans to flood the world with
oil, as does Russia. Gasoline as low as 99 cents in Oklahoma City, OK.
November 27, 2016: the price of gasoline never happened; in fact,
just the opposite. Saudi "opens the taps" and the price of oil
plummets, as does the price of gasoline. The Saudi decision is called
the "trillion-dollar mistake."
December 9, 2015: gasoline hitting new lows, now down to about $1.99 across the US; WTI down to $37/bbl.
July 26, 2013: ethanol demand is at an 11-week low. Cue up Connie Francis. Who's sorry now?
Later, 1:40 pm PDT: absolutely amazing. I just posted the story
below -- mostly because I finally understand RFS and RINs, and then a
link to this article is tweeted to me: the AAA has grave concerns about E85, though the organization has trouble saying it in so many words. Don't you just love it? The AAA can see the writing on the wall, also. Wow, a lot of impending train wrecks in 2014.
The increase for gasoline with a 10% ethanol blend could be as little as 20¢/gal, but only “under somewhat unrealistic and favorable assumptions regarding enormous gains in market penetration and consumer acceptance for E85,” it said. A spike of 50¢-$1/gal is more likely, the July 22 study added.That paragraph can be hard to understand.
Locator: 44695B.
Many years ago, probably in 2014, I placed a note to remind myself to check on this well at a later day. I followed up with another note to check again in December, 2023, because there was nothing to report. I completely forgot to check up on it in December, 2023, so I finally got around to checking it tonight. To say the least, it's confusing to me.
Here's the original post and the well:
For quite some time, that well has been inactive. In 2023, the NDIC apparently wanted EOG to either abandon the well or start production, again.
There's a sundry form, dated April, 2024, that EOG was getting ready to put new wells on the pad.
Checking the pad tonight, the parent well:
The two new daughter wells:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2024 | 30 | 10250 | 10176 | 5000 | 12799 | 12655 | 144 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2024 | 28 | 9832 | 9869 | 5372 | 10865 | 10796 | 69 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2024 | 27 | 9268 | 9216 | 4791 | 10509 | 10352 | 69 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2024 | 31 | 12127 | 12253 | 6252 | 11923 | 11732 | 90 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2024 | 31 | 13734 | 13758 | 6133 | 11951 | 11738 | 213 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2024 | 30 | 13924 | 13925 | 6142 | 11004 | 10809 | 195 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2024 | 31 | 14447 | 14515 | 6562 | 10241 | 10043 | 198 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2024 | 30 | 14618 | 14518 | 6654 | 9524 | 9326 | 198 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 30 | 12812 | 12733 | 6739 | 7486 | 7305 | 181 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 28 | 9769 | 9823 | 6697 | 5737 | 5678 | 59 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2024 | 31 | 12725 | 12739 | 4580 | 7550 | 7482 | 68 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2023 | 31 | 15306 | 15277 | 7369 | 8302 | 8240 | 62 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 30 | 16058 | 16163 | 9225 | 7833 | 7769 | 64 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 31 | 25626 | 25690 | 14002 | 12003 | 11905 | 98 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2023 | 30 | 30573 | 30479 | 24464 | 15611 | 15487 | 124 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2023 | 31 | 15658 | 15346 | 11426 | 7700 | 7644 | 56 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2024 | 30 | 8429 | 8389 | 7180 | 9375 | 9268 | 107 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2024 | 31 | 9747 | 9801 | 7880 | 10334 | 10272 | 62 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2024 | 30 | 9997 | 9918 | 8095 | 10071 | 10001 | 66 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2024 | 31 | 11321 | 11426 | 8643 | 9852 | 9772 | 75 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2024 | 31 | 12185 | 12215 | 9277 | 10510 | 10415 | 95 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2024 | 30 | 12752 | 12792 | 9542 | 9985 | 9900 | 85 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2024 | 31 | 15035 | 14940 | 10892 | 10548 | 10451 | 97 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2024 | 23 | 8812 | 8926 | 8470 | 5421 | 5365 | 56 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 31 | 15787 | 15854 | 12014 | 9313 | 9229 | 84 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 29 | 20128 | 20090 | 14654 | 11786 | 11699 | 87 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2024 | 31 | 18683 | 18666 | 20117 | 11065 | 10985 | 80 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2023 | 31 | 20325 | 20281 | 25313 | 11010 | 10942 | 68 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 30 | 20929 | 20909 | 25515 | 10196 | 10125 | 71 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 31 | 21660 | 21554 | 31180 | 10140 | 10063 | 77 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2023 | 21 | 13779 | 13850 | 22043 | 7342 | 7291 | 51 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2023 | 11 | 12757 | 12503 | 17739 | 6783 | 6741 | 42 |
The first thing I noticed, other than the fact these were nice wells, was the chronologic number of the two new wells but the parent well is still inactive despite the fact that the two new daughter wells have been producing since August, 2023.
It looks like I will have to come back to the parent well and check it again in a few months.
Locator: 44694DEI.
One of the major themes for 2025.
Woke
DEI and ESG: both dead.
DEI is dead: the definitive article (added January 16, 2025).
**************************************
The Atlantic
It’s often hard to discern, definitively, when one societal trend ends and a new one begins. But right now across the United States, one change couldn’t be clearer: Many DEI programs are sputtering or dying, and the anti-DEI movement is ascendant.
Some people, especially but not limited to those on the right, have long viewed contemporary efforts to strengthen DEI practices as performative, meddlesome, or ineffective. In the past several weeks, though, with Donald Trump’s return drawing closer, the DEI opposition has been growing louder. What’s more, this newly emboldened anti-DEI bloc has also gained powerful allies.
Many Americans might not have even been familiar with the concept of DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion) until the latter half of 2020, when, following the murder of George Floyd and subsequent nationwide protests against racism and police brutality, many corporations and universities scrambled to bolster their diversity efforts. DEI programs can involve hiring practices, but they also refer to company culture and everyday corporate decisions about how an organization is run. During the final months of the first Trump administration, some people in mainstream circles saw attacking DEI as akin to publicly displaying prejudice. Now, not even five years later, for a large swath of the country, the idea of DEI has become a catchall insult. DEI is part bogeyman, part always-there scapegoat for some combination of bureaucracy, overreach, or mediocrity.
Blah, blah, blah, then this:
Whether or not you agree with Meta’s decisions about how to run the company, Gale is correct that the landscape is shifting. At the start of the year, McDonald’s announced that it was scrapping its “aspirational representational goals.” Shortly after Trump’s electoral victory, Walmart said that it planned to end its racial-equity training programs for staff and was reevaluating DEI goals around suppliers. But it’s not just the tech bros or corporate behemoths. Last month, the University of Michigan announced that it would end the practice of requiring diversity statements as a component of faculty hiring, promotion, and tenure decisions. The change came following an extensive New York Times Magazine investigation that argued that the school’s costly investment (roughly a quarter of a billion dollars) in DEI initiatives had all but failed.
Why is this political? Why would anyone (right, left, liberal, progressive, conservative, libertarian) want to spend a quarter of a billion dollars on a failing "initiative"? But somehow those in favor of DEI seem to have a moral compass; the rest of us don't.
********************************
The Anti-Social Century
Later.
Locator: 44693AI.
AI: catch-all for sixth industrial revolution.
*******************************
TSMC: 4Q24 -- Calendar Year 2024
Updates
January 16, 2025, link here:
Original Post
TSMC: profits surge. I’m not sure what to say. The numbers are absolutely, stunningly positive. See this post, for the archives.
TSM / TSMC:
C.C. Wei has been added to the "Titans." Link here.
The graphics:
Look at those margins -- on hardware! 43%.
Had Biden been re-elected, his DOJ would have eventually gotten around to suing TSM for .... something.
See this post, for the archives.
Today:
Five years:
Locator: 44700TRUMP.
I posted the answer to that question earlier today.
Is this not the most dreamy song ever. Perfect to muse about the phrase "convicted felon" with this playing in the background.
But that, of course, brings me to David Lynch. He, too, had some incredibly dreamy tunes. LOL.
Is this simply not exceptional? Link here.
Laura Dern and Nicholas Cage. Exceptional on so many levels.
I've seen many interviews with Laura Dern; she has to be in deep mourning tonight with news of David Lynch's passing. She would have so many memories of so many incredible moments working with Lynch.
I never cared for Nicholas Cage much, one way or the other, but he had memorable roles with David Lynch and the Coen Brothers.
And that led me to this.
This is one of those songs / videos that is THE BEST when seen for the very first time. I think I've seen it only once before, years ago. The backstory is amazing.
Okay, I've used up my allotted time for music, but just one more link.
**********************************
My First Car
Later.
Locator: 44699B.
Politics: for the record, I hope Trump pardons NYC mayor Eric Adams sooner than later. It's gonna be great seeing a convicted felon pardoning all these folks. What a story. This story -- a felon pardoning felons -- will take a chapter in Trump's six-volume biography. I assume, as a felon, Trump can't vote any more.
I would love to see Trump pull liberals' chains (or whatever the idiom is): Trump needs to muse out loud:
"As a convicted felon, I have an evolving compassion for convicted felons. How deeply it affects their family. How difficult it is to get a job. And some aren't allowed to vote. I'm thinking that maybe all felons, once they've served their sentence, should be pardoned, and taking it one step farther/further, the US president should be able to pardon state felons. Maybe all non-violent incarcerated felons need to be pardoned. Yes, I have an evolving compassion for felons. And I'm not up for re-election. Sort of like Joe Biden pardoning his own son."
Back to whether the phrase "convicted felon" is redundant or a tautology, see this link.
There's a lot of irony in this story and it's not as simple as it might seem. At this link, in a nutshell:
Under Florida law, if a voter has an out-of-state conviction, Florida will defer to that state’s laws for how a felon can regain his or her voting rights.
For Trump, that means he will benefit from a 2021 New York law that allows people with felony convictions to vote as long as they’re not serving a term of incarceration at the time of the election.
For other Floridians with felony convictions, the rules are not so simple.
***************************
Focus on dividends, VLO: link here --
(1.13 - 1.07) / 1.07 = 5.6% increase in its dividend
Share price today = $139.37
(1.33 *4) / 139.37 = 3.2%.
Date of record: January 30, 2025.
Payable: March 3, 2025.
The rate was 4.1% on year ago.
**************************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $78.68.
Active rigs: 31. Winter is setting in; has set in.
Five new permits, # 41522 - #41526, inclusive:
*********************************
The Music Page
"Moon River."
The object of affection is the river itself. Clever use of metaphors (?) throughout the song.
Coming home from Jiu-Jitsu last night, I asked Sophia, age 10, if she had heard Huckleberry Finn and/or Tom Sawyer. Something she doing at the time reminded me of those two characters. She had not heard of either.
The Adventures of Tom Sawyer: ages 9 and up.
The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn: ages 12 and up.
Locator: 44698EVS.
Starship Flight 7: successfully caught the booster. Two catches in a row. Three attempts to catch the super-heavy boost; successful on the #2 and #3 attempt. Truly amazing. Space X. The launch and capture facility is at the southernmost end of South Padre Island, Texas, about 24 miles ENE of Matamoros, Mexico, just down the road from the center of Brownsville, TX. At about +eight minutes into the flight, the ground controllers lost communications with the payload / upper booster / ship. That is still being sorted out. Link here for pre-launch. This was a brand new version of "the ship." 4:53 p.m. CT: it appears "the ship" has been lost; +17 minutes since take-off.
************************************
EVs
***********************
Global Oil Production
Tag: oil production global OPEC
Month-over-month change does not interest me.
The long-term trends are amazing.
Locator: 44697LYNCH.
David Lynch, age 78, has died.
**************************
Amazon
I might have to start a new feature.
An Amazon-featured product.
LOL.
I'll start with this. I have one and it's the cat's meow.
If used appropriately and "cared for" they will probably last two to three years.
Locator: 44696FIRES.
Gold Rush
Think Big, Go Big
Make Pacific Palisades Great Again
January 16, 2025:
Pacific Palisades: "Big Real Estate" will move in. This will be the "California gold rush" of real estate.
Locator: 44695FIRES.
See disclaimer for all posts.
I believe this fire is contained. No longer burning. But things are dynamic.
Fortunately for the accused, the Los Angeles City Council voted to establish the city of Los Angeles as a sanctuary city on/about November 19, 2024 -- about three months ago.
Locator: 44694MMFs.
I remember when this chart "was fascinating" when it trended toward $6 trillion. In fact, at that time, the y-axis only went to $7 trillion. Now, it appears the MMFs manage in excess of $7 trillion and trending toward $8 trillion. The questions remain/become:
Link here, my favorite chart, MMFs:
Locator: 44693AI.
AI: catch-all for sixth industrial revolution.
*******************************
TSMC: 4Q24 -- Calendar Year 2024
Updates
January 16, 2025, link here:
Original Post
TSMC: profits surge. I’m not sure what to say. The numbers are absolutely, stunningly positive. See this post, for the archives.
TSM / TSMC:
C.C. Wei has been added to the "Titans." Link here.
The graphics:
Look at those margins -- on hardware! 43%.
Had Biden been re-elected, his DOJ would have eventually gotten around to suing TSM for .... something.
See this post, for the archives.
Today:
Five years:
Locator: 44692B.
Charles Kennedy, link here:
North Dakota’s claim to oil fame has long been the Bakken shale, one of the top shale plays in the country. The Bakken is considered a rather mature play, but now, studies by researchers with the state’s Department of Natural Resources have opened up the prospect of a second life for the Bakken.
It is called Three Forks—a reservoir that lies within the Bakken shale play and may contain as much as 250 million barrels of crude as of yet untapped. And that oil is not too deep in the ground either, the researchers determined.
“The Three Forks Formation is a prolific unconventional oil and gas reservoir within western North Dakota and has been the target of approximately 8,000 horizontal wells through ~mid-2023,” the North Dakota Department of Natural Resources reports in an info sheet on the deposit. It goes on to note that most of the wells already drilled in the Three Forks Formation were drilled in the upper strata of the formation. In the middle layer, some 340 wells have been drilled, and in the lower layer, there have been only 50 wells drilled so far.
The reason is simple enough. Since the discovery of the Parshall field in the Middle Bakken back in 2006, most drilling has been concentrated there. Then the upper Three Forks followed between 2008 and 2010. In the early 2010s, drillers moved on to the middle Three Forks, with some 360 horizontal wells drilled there to date, producing around 92 million barrels of oil and 238 billion cu ft of natural gas. That only represents a modest 2% of the overall drilling activity in the Bakken play and less than 2% of total output.
More to the link.
Locator: 44691B.
Democratic base: at lease we know the percent of Americans that are the Democratic base. 38%.
Baseball: Bob Uecker dead at 90 years of age.
Pacific Palisades: "Big Real Estate" will move in. This will be the "gold rush" of real estate.
It's gonna be quiet; we're not going to hear much about this. These will be very sensitive deals; buys will want to keep it "quiet." Think Walt Disney buying up land for Disneyland decades ago. Think Spark Capital. If one doesn't think there's enough money on the sidelines to promote this, look at "my favorite chart."
TSM / TSMC:
Copper soars: link here.
Thune and Trump: link here.
Germany, second year of recession: link here.
Tesla: cuts price on the Cybertruck by "up to $2,000." This is for a $100,000 vehicle. LOL. This is after a year (2024) in which 20% of new-vehicle sales represented 20% of all vehicle sales.
********************************
Back to the Bakken
Charles Kennedy: can this huge oil discovery revive the Bakken oil boom? Oilprice link here.
WTI: $78.84.
The wells:
RBN Energy: gas producers outperform as investors see clouds breaking on the horizon.
There’s an old saw that pessimists are optimists with experience. That may be one reason the post-election burst of investor enthusiasm that briefly drove most E&P stocks higher soon evaporated for oil-focused producers under the weight of eroding prices and uncertainty about future demand. But, surprisingly, investors continued to support the shares of long-downtrodden Gas-Weighted producers, buying into the vision of long-term gains in domestic and LNG-export demand and more favorable pricing.
Locator: 44690SPACE.
TSMC: profits surge. I’m not sure what to say. The numbers are absolutely, stunningly positive. See this post, for the archives.
Blue Origin: re-schedules New Glenn launch for Thursday morning; three-hour window about the time rush hour starts for the rest of the country; from Cape Canaveral. [Later: successful launch.]
From Bluesky:
Canada not for sale: I don't think Trump wants to "buy" Canada. He simply wants to take the good parts. Having said that, Trump wants to buy Greenland, and apparently discussions are actually taking place.
Charles Kennedy on the Bakken.
