Week 1 - 2: January 1, 2025 -- January 12, 2025 -- This Is Going To Get Ugly — These Stories Are Being Reported By The New York Times — January 10, 2025

Locator: 44665TOPSTORIES.

Southern California Fires

• Anger: https://www.foxnews.com/video/6366937197112. 
• Brentwood, January 11, 2025. Politicos talking about “re-building,” link here.
• Victor Davis Hanson: link here.
• Sunday morning news shows are going to be must-see TV. Let’s see if Governor Newsom gets a pass.
• Southern California fires, January, 2025: tracked here. 
  

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Top Stories

Geoff Simon's Quick Connects -- January 10, 2025: link here.

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Hiatus Between November 5, 2024 - January 20, 2025: Twelve Weeks
Biden-Trump Transition
December 30, 2024 - January 13, 2025: Week Ten / Eleven

The transition works this way, this cycle:

• Biden's emphasis is on pardons and commutations, separately making Trump's life as difficult as possible; 
• Biden has never been so busy in the past four years as the past week with executive orders, briefings, southern California briefings.
  
• Biden still perceived by many as working to set up Trump for failure; 
• Biden exit interview: still believes he could have won race against Trump; though he admits not sure if he would live another four years.
  
• continues to regret that he dropped out of race; says he could have won (he's 82 years old) 
• as delusional as he is senile
  
• Trump: US Supreme Court, 5 - 4 lets legal system play out -- Trump sentenced, but no punishment; none whatsoever; judge wishes him Godspeed
  
• state felony so future president cannot pardon Trump; would have to be done by a NY governor
  

The Florida White House:

• no change from last week:
• Trump is the president, simply waiting to make it official, January 20th (unchanged from last month)
• surrounding himself with "self-made billionaires"
• those billionaires not named to his administration are making pilgrimages to Mar-a-Lago
• most recent rumor: Bill Gates on his way (I don't think he has gone there yet)
• entry fee to be part of Trump's inaugural inner circle: $1 million -- Tim Cook most recent to ante that $1-million entry fee. 
• since last week, both GOOG and MSFT have each donated $1 million to Trump's inaugural
• also Hims and Hers
  

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The Top Stories

Top story of the week:

• the southern California / Pacific Palisades and four other fires
• said to be worse in history
  

Top international non-energy story:

• 
  

Top international energy story:

• Biden finally places huge sanctions on Russis
• WTI spikes from $83 to $87
  

Top national non-energy story:

• Trump stories continue to dominate political stories
  
• Jack Smith, who led federal prosecution of Trump, steps down / resigns / quits.
  

Top national energy story:

• WTI surges -- from $83 to $87
  

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

WPX Cancels 39 Permits All In Dunn County; Hess With Four New Permits -- January 10, 2025

Locator: 44664B.

WTI: $76.57. Up 3.58% for the day; up $2.65 for the day. New sanctions on Russia. Amazing how much "stuff" Biden is getting done in his last 20 days.

Active rigs: 33.

Four new permits, #41501 - #41504, inclusive;

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Stanley (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for four wells, NWNW 12-155-92, three RS-Sorenson wells and one RS-Piepkorn well; to be sited 263 FNL and 797/896 FWL

Thirty-nine permits canceled, as a reminder:

From East Daley:

• WPX:
• three Charles Blackhawk permits;
• ten Charging Eagle permits;
• seven Two Shields Butte permits;
• four Skunk Creek permits;
• gems:
• an Emerald permit;
• an Amethyst permit;
• a Ruby permit;
• a Citrine permit;
• a Sapphire permit;
• sharks:
• a Hammerhead permit;
• a Tiger permit;
• three FBIR Johnson permits;
• a Chokecherry permit;
• a Hoser permit
• a Loonie permits;
• an American Elm permit

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38099, 450, BR, Stafford 12-34MBH, McKenzie;
• 40392, 1,822, WPX, Missouri River 25-36HZ,

Two dry holes:

• 39541, dry, Grayson Mill, Knight 38-26F 5TFH, McKenzie County;
• 40283, dry, Eagle Operating, Wade 5-11, Renville County;

Time To Ditch Bonds? Barron's -- January 10, 2025

Locator: 44663BONDS.

The headline barely supports the story. It's almost as if the writer simply spoke to a bunch of folks and suggested an investment buffet. 

Link here.

A surge in bond yields on Friday highlighted the volatility that has characterized fixed income in recent years and has caused some investors to question the stability of the popular 60/40 asset mix.

Long-term bond yields soared on Friday after a strong jobs report dampened expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.74% on Friday morning, the highest level in more than a year.

Yields had already been notching higher in recent weeks on fears of persistent inflation. Bond yields move inversely to prices, and lower bond prices indicate more investors are selling their bonds amid fears that inflation will eat into their real returns and strong economic growth will prevent the need for rate cuts, among other concerns.

Since the beginning of 2022, volatility has increased in fixed income, says Jordan Rizzuto, managing partner at GammaRoad Capital Partners, an investment research firm. What’s more, bonds have been more correlated with stocks lately than they have been during the prior 25 years or so, he notes.

Blah, blah, blah.

And then this:

“Contrary to conventional wisdom, bonds add little to nothing for retirees,” wrote researchers from Emory University, the University of Arizona, and the University of Missouri.

In lieu of a balanced stock and bond portfolio, the researchers found investors were less likely to exhaust their savings with an allocation of 33% domestic stocks and 67% international stocks.

Retirement expert Wade Pfau says income-oriented retirees could successfully swap annuities for bonds in their portfolios. Rather than set a fixed allocation to annuities, it is best to back into the amount by calculating how much income you require and buying an annuity to cover it, he says.

Once you have your spending needs covered, “You don’t have to be as worried about market volatility, and the remainder can be in stocks,” says Pfau, author of the “Retirement Planning Guidebook” and professor of practice at The American College of Financial Services.

On the other hand, Vanguard has suggested a higher allocation to bonds for investors who are comfortable with an active approach that responds to changing market conditions. A 40% stock, 60% bond portfolio might be warranted under today’s conditions, when higher interest rates have led to higher expected returns for fixed income, the firm said in a recent note. On top of that, high starting stock valuations imply that investors may not get adequately rewarded for holding equities.

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The Book Page

The Greeks: A Global History, Roderick Beaton, c. 2021.

Chapter 8:  Becoming Christian, 337 - 630.

Page 255.

At the time of Constantine's deathbed baptism in 337 ....

In Egypt, a villager by the name of Pachomius, who had converted to Christianity while serving in the Roman legions, seems to have been one of the first to establish a system of communal living for segregated groups of men and women, under strict religious rules and keeping their distance form towns and cities. By the time that Pachomius died in 346, nine of these "monasteries," as they came to be known, were in existence in Egypt. Those who submitted to the rule of a monastery were known as "monks."

The Greek word monanchos literally means "one all alone," a description that better fits the hermits and solitary ascetics than members of the communities founded by Pacohmius and others. A hundred years later, there may have been as many a fifteen thousand monks living in Egypt, including at least four hundred nuns. 

Many of those would have spoken Coptic, a form of ancient Egyptian that was also gaining ground as a written language among Christians. But the lives of the founders were written in Greek and widely read throughout the east empire. It was to the monks and hermits of their own localities that ordinary people looked for an example of how to love as Christians, as much as to distant emperors laying down the law in Constantinople.

Countdown To Inaugural -- Entry Fee: $1 Million -- Microsoft Joins The Team -- January 10, 2025

Locator: 44662TRUMP.

Link here.

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The Book Page

The Annotated Mrs Dalloway, Merve Emre, c. 2021.

Some weeks ago I mentioned I was in my India phase, in the process of reading three books on Indian history: the "whole" history, followed by the history of the British reign, and then ending with the story of India today.

Wow, that really paid dividends. Today I'm reading a bit of The Annotated Mrs Dalloway and early on the annotator has a long piece about another uprising in India during Britain's oppressive colonial rule. Had I not read the history of India, this annotation would have meant nothing to me and I would have skipped over it. As it was, I thoroughly enjoyed it, recognizing much of the history of which I was now familiar. 

Mrs Dalloway was published in 1925. On September 1, 1920, Mahatma Gandhi has started the non-cooperation movement with the aim of securing full Indian independence through nonviolent means. Two years later Gandhi was arrested for sedition and sentenced to six years in prison. 

Clarissa's sometime-love interest Peter Walsh worked as a civil servant in British India. It wasn't until 1947 that India gained its independence. 

Virginia Woolf, herself, committed suicide on March 28, 1941. 

I find it interesting, that of all the possibilities that Virginia Woolf could have chosen for Peter Walsh, she chose "civil servant in British India," an affair (the British Raj) that would have preoccupied Virginia Woolf's entire adult life. 

Virginia Woolf was born in 1882.

The British Raj: 1858 - 1947.

See my note, one of many, on Mrs Dalloway at this post.

My most precious note on the novel, here.

Countdown To The Inaugural -- Entry Fee: $1 Million -- Google Joins The Team -- January 10, 2025

Locator: 44661TRUMP.

Link here.

Transition -- January 10, 2025

Locator: 44660NEWSOM.

And this was posted BEFORE the Pacific Palisades fire.

Link here.

His political career is over.

Trans -- Transition -- January 10, 2025

Locator: 44659TRANS.

Link to The New York Times. 

Michelle Obama Snubs Biden -- Fails To Attend Church Services For Jimmy Carter -- She Had A Scheduling Conflict According To Her Advisors -- January 10, 2025

Locator: 44658MICHELLE.

US Economy And The Road To Germany -- January 10, 2025

Locator: 44657GERMANY.

Link here.

Angela Merkel wrote a 736-page memoir to secure her crumbling legacy. The effort is backfiring.

Her new book, “Freedom”—published in late November in nearly 30 languages—is riling up even some of her most ardent supporters, in part because Merkel declines to consider that any of the policies of her four-term chancellorship, from 2005 to 2021, might have been misguided.

“Much pride, little self-reflection” was the headline that the powerful German state broadcaster ARD, the key media platform of Merkel’s time in power, put on its capital bureau’s report on the book’s launch. Merkel’s own political heirs in the Christian Democratic party say that publicity around the memoir is damaging their current election campaign. They blame their unpopularity on the challenges they inherited from Merkel and lament that voters are now reminded by the book that she—and by extension, her party—helped create the country’s problems.

US Economy -- January 10, 2025

Locator: 44656USECONOMY.

Certainly doesn't look like a recession or depression. 

From CNBC:

From The New York Times:

WTI Surges -- With Respect To Trump's Tariffs, How Is This Any Different? January 10, 2025

Locator: 44655WTISURGES.

Link here.

Drill, baby, drill.

BlackRock Flees Net-Zero Financing -- It Was Confusing Their Investors -- January 10, 2025

Locator: 44654REALITYSUCKS.

Today, BlackRock joins the group. Flees "net-zero financing." Link here. The story, with a bit of spin, I assume. The practice caused confusion. LOL:

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, is quitting the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative in the latest exit of a major financial institution from a climate finance alliance since Donald Trump was elected U.S. President in November.

BlackRock has decided to leave the voluntary Net Zero Asset Managers initiative, which launched in December 2020 and aims to “support the asset management industry to commit to a goal of net zero emissions in order to mitigate financial risk and to maximize long-term value of assets.”

The world’s top asset manager has quit the initiative because its membership has “caused confusion regarding BlackRock’s practices and subjected us to legal inquiries from various public officials,” Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand wrote in a letter to institutional clients seen by the Financial Times.

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Previously Reported

This warms the cockles of my heart. The entire story. This story -- but not this article -- has been reported frequently on the blog. 

Another tailwind for the market.

Link here.

Within the span of a month, Wall Street’s biggest banks have quit what had been one of the most popular clubs inside global finance.

The Net-Zero Banking Alliance — a group dedicated to helping lenders reduce their carbon footprints — has in quick succession been abandoned by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Morgan Stanley. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest US bank, looks to be next in line.

The moves reflect US banks’ desire to shield themselves from increasing political pressure as Donald Trump returns to the White House, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. And NZBA is bracing for more US exits, Secretariat Lead Sarah Kemmitt told members in a Dec. 31 letter seen by Bloomberg. She cited the “political environment.”

At the same time, the real-world impact of the NZBA defections is unclear. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, banks have collectively stepped up their financing of the fossil-fuel industry since the alliance was formed in 2021.

Membership of NZBA was likely more a case of “virtue signaling” than “meaningful climate impacts,” said Jill Fisch, a business law professor at the University of Pennsylvania.

Activists are now demanding that the government intervene to target Wall Street. Environmental Advocates NY, a nonprofit, says it’s urging New York state officials to introduce regulations and laws that would compel banks operating in the world’s biggest financial hub to take climate action.

The wave of NZBA exits follows behind-the-scenes tensions that have been brewing for more than two years, Bloomberg’s reporting has shown. In 2022, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley were among banks pushing back against binding targets on climate finance. NZBA then watered down some requirements, and members stayed put. But as the Republican Party grows more hostile toward climate-friendly organizations, the finance industry is repositioning itself.

Global temperatures are rising fast, yet banks continue to reap short-term profits by sticking with fossil fuel producers. It’s therefore both “distressing and unsurprising” that Wall Street is turning it’s back on net zero alliances, said Ken Pucker, who teaches sustainability at the Fletcher School at Tufts University in Medford, Massachusetts.

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The whole house of cards, to mix metaphors, is now going to fall, in quick succession.

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Net-zero banking? Dead. Link here. Along with ESG and DEI.

Also, WSJ link:

Also, the "Rainforest Action Network" is apoplectic:

How To Cut The Dividend While Raising It -- BKH -- Benzingo -- January 10, 2025.

Locator: 44653DIVIDENDS.

Maybe I'm missing something but this is what I'm seeing / reading. Needs to be fact-checked. 

This story is being reposted today on Benzinga though they reference a dividend increase almost a year ago.

Black Hills Corporation (NYSE:BKH) is an energy company that operates through its Electric Utilities, Gas Utilities, Corporate and Other segments. These segments operate in states in the Midwest and mountain regions in the U.S.

On Jan. 26, Black Hills announced that its board of directors approved a quarterly dividend of $0.65 per share, an increase of $0.025 per share over last quarter's dividend.

"This dividend increase showcases our long-standing commitment to reward shareholders with a sustainable, growing dividend," said Linn Evans, president and CEO of Black Hills Corp.

The new annualized rate represents 54 consecutive years of annual dividend increases, the second-longest track record in the electric and natural gas utility industry.

So that story is being recycled today by Benzinga. 

But note this, link here:

BKH announced a dividend increase for calendar year 2021, but in fact paid out significantly less by skipping a payment, if the information above is accurate.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.     

TGIF -- Friday, January 10, 2025

Locator: 44652B.

Trump: sentencing hearing held today. Unconditional discharge. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $77.23, up $3.31; up 4.48%.

The wells:

• Sunday, January 12, 2025: 19 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 19 for the year,
• 40588, conf, Neptune Operating LLC, Simpson LW 5-8 5H,
• 40295, conf, BR, Kellogg Ranch 2B TFH,
• Saturday, January 11, 2025: 17 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 17 for the year,
• 40083, conf, Hess, EN-Halvorson-157-9-3229H-6,
• 40565, conf, Neptune Operating LLC, Simpson 5-8 6H,
• Friday, January 10, 2025: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 15 for the year,
• 40084, conf, Hess, EN-Halvorson-157-93-3229H-5, 

LNG buildout? January 20th can't get her fast enough.

RBN Energy: US LNG at a standstill waiting out construction, regulatory, legal delays. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Europe’s subsequent pivot away from Russian natural gas caused a huge resurgence in interest in U.S. LNG. That led to nearly 60 MMtpa (7.9 Bcf/d) of new U.S. LNG capacity reaching a final investment decision (FID) in 2022-23. But regulatory delays at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the Biden administration’s pause on non-free-trade-agreement (non-FTA) export licenses, and legal challenges to the FERC approval process have essentially halted LNG development in the U.S. There are several LNG projects with enough commercial momentum to move forward that are stuck in regulatory or legal limbo, but even projects that have reached FID are not safe from legal challenges. In today’s RBN blog, we conclude our series on LNG delays by looking at recent court rulings and other regulatory issues and their impact on U.S. LNG development. 

In Part 1 of this mini-series we talked about how LNG construction delays caused 2024 to be the first year that U.S. LNG feedgas demand did not see meaningful year-on-year growth since U.S. exports began in 2016 (see dashed red box in Figure 1 below). Major construction delays at Golden Pass LNG (yellow bar segments) and the bankruptcy of the terminal’s engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) partner, Zachry Holdings, in the spring of 2024 delayed its startup by at least a year. Minor delays at Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG (light-blue bar segments) pushed back the final stages of commissioning and startup at the terminal, although “first LNG” — the term of art for the first output from a plant — was achieved on December 14 and the terminal exported its first commissioning cargo on December 26. Flows at the terminal will ramp up this year as additional units come online.

Figure 1. U.S. LNG Export Capacity by Terminal. Source: RBN

Feedgas growth from near-term U.S. LNG projects may have been pushed back, but it’s still coming, with at least 1 Bcf/d of demand— and potentially more than 2.5 Bcf/d — expected by the end of the year, depending on the exact ramp schedule for the commissioning terminals. By the end of 2026, feedgas demand could approach 19 Bcf/d with Corpus Christi Stage III online, Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 online and Phase 2 commissioning, and Golden Pass ramping online. While construction issues can cause timing delays at the terminals, the three near-term projects appear to be secure in their path forward, but things become more uncertain further out. Regulatory and court challenges have made it increasingly difficult for new projects to take FID and, given that court challenges actually happen after projects are approved —sometimes even after FID — it’s a very unsettled world right now.