Locator: 48556ND.
https://x.com/Citizens_ND/status/1912660066995421690
https://x.com/search?q=holmberg%20north%20dakota&src=typed_query
Locator: 48555SOLAR.
By the way, before we get started, the elite universities are putting up a good front confronting Trump on the anti-semitism issue, but two things:
It's been one hundred days.
And we move on.
Later
April 30, 2025: Equior, link at Reuters. Should have stayed in its lane, stayed with its core competency (oil).
Original Post
First Solar, the country’s largest solar manufacturer, said that tariffs will significantly reduce revenue and earnings this year, sending the stock down 10% in after-hours trading.
First Solar missed Wall Street’s consensus expectation for the first quarter, reporting earnings of $1.95 a share versus the projection of $2.49 a share.
The company also revised guidance sharply lower. It said that tariffs could reduce its 2025 revenue from a range of $5.3 billion to $5.8 billion to a range of $4.5 billion to $5.5 billion. It reduced its earnings per share expectations from a range of $17 to $20 to a range of $12.50 to $17.50.
First Solar has several factories in the U.S., but also produces some of its solar film in India, Malaysia, and Vietnam, all of which are subject to new tariffs.
It plans to redirect its Indian supply to the domestic market in India, said CEO Mark Widmar. It may have to idle the factories in Malaysia and Vietnam.
Locator: 48554B.
In the map below, four older wells have been taken off line; they were taken off line all at the same time:
It turns out that the wells on the two multi-well pads were drilled / fracked / completed all within the last few months explaining why these four wells (circled in the graphic) above were taken off line and remain offline. I assume, if these wells are not closed in for good (plugged and abandoned) they will be back on line in a few weeks. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if they are all closed in. To some extent, they are now simply nuisances for the operator with 20+ new wells. Nuisances unless they show a typical Bailey oil field halo effect.
The wells revealed huge jumps in production years ago. See below.
The wells:
Example of the halo effect seen in Bailey oil field,
| BAKKEN | 8-2018 | 31 | 11894 | 11800 | 10712 | 12116 | 11171 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2018 | 31 | 13300 | 13394 | 11636 | 12988 | 10220 | 1737 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2018 | 30 | 13485 | 13499 | 10835 | 10624 | 9525 | 67 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2018 | 31 | 15955 | 15954 | 13038 | 8021 | 2298 | 4520 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2018 | 30 | 18042 | 18024 | 14591 | 9004 | 0 | 6896 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2018 | 31 | 21106 | 21154 | 17908 | 10512 | 0 | 8072 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2018 | 28 | 22528 | 22522 | 19799 | 11149 | 0 | 8575 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2018 | 31 | 27388 | 27520 | 27949 | 13626 | 698 | 9819 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2017 | 27 | 26122 | 25939 | 22830 | 15939 | 688 | 12323 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2017 | 25 | 16671 | 16661 | 9612 | 10148 | 89 | 8166 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2017 | 13 | 12725 | 12614 | 0 | 6272 | 37 | 4801 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2017 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2017 | 19 | 448 | 506 | 252 | 394 | 135 | 119 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2017 | 28 | 742 | 709 | 144 | 520 | 256 | 17 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2017 | 30 | 670 | 747 | 276 | 493 | 193 | 60 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2016 | 31 | 844 | 766 | 205 | 575 | 230 | 69 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2016 | 30 | 792 | 779 | 161 | 529 | 251 | 13 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2016 | 31 | 818 | 855 | 175 | 543 | 264 | 5 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2016 | 30 | 833 | 856 | 172 | 500 | 104 | 128 |
Maybe more later.
Locator: 48553CHINA.
Before going further, a reminder: within the past few days China stated very clearly that it was waiving all tariffs on US ethane. Huge, huge, huge story.
Now, tonight, an even bigger story.
Now, combine this with the Musk satellite story.
Then, add in the Nvidia /TSMC story that's playing out in Phoenix.
And then, another reminder, Apple is moving out of China as fast as it can. It will take a year or so, but Apple will be out of China well before mainland China invades Taiwan.
One hundred days.
Now, throw in the US energy story and the Spanish grid this past week.
This is going to play out in two phases, short term and long term.
As usual, I won't post my thoughts on what all of the above means and where we're headed short term and long term. I would get too much push back. I don't need it.
All I can say, the China "manufacturing data" for April that has just come in is the biggest financial story so far in Trump's first 100 days.
At this moment in time: the US has never looked so strong. I won't even mention that the Canadians have voted in another liberal PM. LOL.
This is the lede to the WSJ story:
China’s economy showed its first big signs of damage from the trade war, as steep U.S. tariffs pummeled export orders and production at the country’s factories.
A gauge of new export orders fell in April to its lowest reading since Covid-19 was ravaging the country in 2022, while overall manufacturing activity in China was the weakest in more than a year, according to surveys published Wednesday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
The sharp pullback shows Trump’s eye-watering tariffs on Chinese imports are starting to squeeze the engine room of China’s economy, piling pressure on Beijing to boost its stimulus efforts to shore up growth.
It also adds to pressure on leader Xi Jinping to reach a deal on trade with President Trump—though for now the clear message from Beijing is one of resolute defiance in the teeth of what it describes as U.S. bullying. [But it didn't stop Xi from waiving all tariffs on ethane.]
China’s official purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector, a closely watched gauge of activity at China’s factories, came in at 49 in April, down sharply from the 50.5 reading recorded in March. A reading of 50 or above indicates factory activity is expanding, while below 50 points to a contraction. April’s reading was the weakest since December 2023.
A similar measure of new export orders plunged even more steeply, sinking to 44.7 in April, the lowest reading since December 2022, an early sign that trade between the U.S. and China is in danger of drying up as American importers cancel or delay orders after a rush to bring in goods earlier this year before tariffs came into effect. [Exactly predicted by Trump.]
The billionaires in China won't accept this.
Locator: 48552TEXAS.
Texas: everything suggests a Texas supercycle over the next four years -
California: deep doo-doo
Locator: 48551TSMC.
Note the charts below. There seems to be a trend.
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GPU Chip Account
Wiki. This chart has recently been updated. This is updated through 2025. Compare this upper graph with the lower graph.
This was the previous chart at wiki. The most recent date below is 2024.
Locator: 48550TSMC.
Updates
April 30, 2025: same story, one day later, being reported on MacRumors. Link here.
Original Post
Links here:
Look at the numbers.
In a historic announcement, in May 2020, TSMC shared its plans to invest $12B in Phoenix, Arizona – building an advanced semiconductor manufacturing fabrication.
In December 2022, the company announced its commitment to build a second fab in Phoenix, increasing its total investment to $40B.
Then in April 2024, the U.S. Department of Commerce and TSMC Arizona announced up to US$6.6 billion in direct funding under the CHIPS and Science Act, fulfilling a goal to bring the most advanced chip manufacturing in the world to the United States.
TSMC also announced plans to build a third fab at TSMC Arizona.
This third fab brings TSMC’s total U.S. investment to more than $65 billion, making this the largest foreign direct investment (FDI) in Arizona history, and the largest FDI in a greenfield project in U.S. history.
Now with a third fab, TSMC Arizona will create approximately 6,000 jobs – and more than 20,000 accumulated unique construction jobs, as well as tens of thousands of indirect supplier jobs.
According to the Greater Phoenix Economic Council (GPEC), there are more than 140,000 jobs in occupations relevant to semiconductors in the metropolitan area and it is growing rapidly. An analysis by GPEC (April 2024) on the impact of TSMC Arizona notes that over a thirteen-year period, TSMC’s investment in Phoenix will:
- Create more than 20,000 accumulated unique construction jobs and over 18,000 supplier and consumer indirect jobs.
- Generate an estimated $1.2B in direct tax revenues plus $195.1M in indirect tax revenues — for a total of $1.4B in tax revenue to Arizona over a 13-year period.
- Create $4.6B of personal income, plus an additional $4.8B in indirect personal income for a total of $9.3B.
- Create $32.9B in economic output, with $17.2B in direct economic output, and $15.6B in indirect output.
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GPU Chip Account
Wiki.
Locator: 48549HALO.
See this post: the Bailey oil field is well known for its "halo effect."
See the NDIC hearing dockets, May, 2025, link here.
Updates
September 17, 2025: map updated --
Original Post
The case:
Locator: 48548NOG.
NOG 1Q25 results: link here.
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More Bakken News
WTI: $60.18.
Active rigs: 25.
Seven new permits, #41856 - #41862, inclusive:
Two permits renewed:
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
Locator: 48547NETFLIX.
All eyes on SBUX right now. Later: a double miss. Down 1% after hours? Not sure how accurate but some reports. Margins up but that was about it. After hours, price recovers on guidance. Meanwhile, Visa (V) beats with strong report. Jumps 2% after hours.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Earlier:
GDPNow: link here, -2.7.
Inflation: last month's drop in pharmacy products was the largest decline in history.
Breaking: Netflix hit all-time highs today.
AAPL: gets strong price target boost based on earnings talk.
Two must-watch programs every day:
Today's VDH was particularly good.
Satellites: to reach its goal, China needs to launch 60 satellites every week between now and the end of 2030. If one Musk launch carries 20 satellites, that means China needs to launch 20 satellites three times a week. Three launches per week x 50 weeks = 150 launches / year. And do this for the five years.
In 2024, China launched a total of 68 orbital rockets. This is a new record for the country, exceeding the 67 launches in 2023. Initially, the goal was 100 launches, but this target was not reached.
Musk 2024 space statistics:
The race: between China and Musk. EU is dead. The EU will make money regulating satellites.
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Menu
It only took 50+ years but I finally have the short-order restaurant in my kitchen that I've always wanted.
Locator: 48545UKRAINE.
Wow, the blog got it exactly right.
Wow, wow, wow -- on China, trade, tariffs, Victor Davis Hanson led off with that. Wow.
See this post for today's big stories (about six big stories). I don't "predict" that Ukraine will be a big story each day, but today, after weeks (months?) of silence, I said Ukraine would turn out to be one of the big stories today. Pure serendipity. LOL.
One of the six: Ukraine. From the blog at break of dawn today -- Putin will get Crimea; hard to say how much more he will get --
And, oh, by the way, it was reported today that a senior Russian official has said NATO's newest members (Finland, 2023; Sweden, 2024) are in play now.
Locator: 48544HESS.
The well:
Scout ticket:
The permit application:
The maps:
Locator: 48543ARCHIVES.
Tariffs: that story that Amazon was going to publish tariff cost on each product it sold --> fake story, fake news. Trump fell for it.
Ethane: China waives tariffs on US ethane imports. On Trump’s 100th day in office. Link here.
The EIA expects total U.S. petroleum products consumption to increase in 2025 and 2026.
CCS, XOM, Calpine, Permian, Gulf of Texas: link here. Great update.
Gulf of America: doesn't roll off the tongue due to vowel alignment. Gulf of Mexico, worked. Gulf of Texas? Even better.
Scrolling down x:
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The Book Page
Logarithms lead directly to slide rules. From the book below, p. 60:
The production of slide rules, circular slide rules, and slide cylinders came to a halt in 1976, when the first low-cost electronic pocket calculator entered the market.
1976.
Wow.
I graduated from high school, 1969, and college, 1973. Three years later, the end of the slide rule. I doubt Sophia even knows what a slide rule is. To what extent her older sisters know, I have no idea.
The book this week: The Daring Invention of Logarithm Tables: How Jost Bürgi, John Napier, and Henry Briggs Simplified Arithmetic and Started the Computing Revolution, color edition, Klaus Truemper, c. 2020, updates, 2023, 2024, and 2025.
Klaus Truemper is Professor Emeritus of Computer Science at the University of Texas at Dallas. He is author of several books in Brain Science, Mathematics, and Computer science.
University of Texas as Dallas? UTD. Just a few miles up the road from where we live. Could be huge beneficiary of Nvidia's announcement to build a supercomputer in Dallas. UTD has transformed in the past five years. New kid on the block. Connection with Nvidia?
Six links. This is not an investment site and no recommendations are being or implied.
Nvidia is working with its manufacturing partners to design and build factories that, for the first time, will produce Nvidia AI supercomputers entirely in the U.S.
Together with leading manufacturing partners, the company has commissioned more than a million square feet of manufacturing space to build and test Nvidia Blackwell chips in Arizona and AI supercomputers in Texas. Nvidia Blackwell chips have started production at TSMC’s chip plants in Phoenix, Arizona.
Nvidia is building supercomputer manufacturing plants in Texas, with Foxconn in Houston and with Wistron in Dallas.
Mass production at both plants is expected to ramp up in the next 12-15 months.
The AI chip and supercomputer supply chain is complex and demands the most advanced manufacturing, packaging, assembly and test technologies.
Nvidia is partnering with Amkor and SPIL for packaging and testing operations in Arizona.
Within the next four years, Nvidia plans to produce up to half a trillion dollars of AI infrastructure in the United States through partnerships with TSMC, Foxconn, Wistron, Amkor and SPIL.
These world-leading companies are deepening their partnership with Nvidia , growing their businesses while expanding their global footprint and hardening supply chain resilience.
Nvidia AI supercomputers are the engines of a new type of data center created for the sole purpose of processing artificial intelligence — AI factories that are the infrastructure powering a new AI industry.
Tens of “gigawatt AI factories” are expected to be built in the coming years.
Manufacturing Nvidia AI chips and supercomputers for American AI factories is expected to create hundreds of thousands of jobs and drive trillions of dollars in economic security over the coming decades.
“The engines of the world’s AI infrastructure are being built in the United States for the first time,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia . “Adding American manufacturing helps us better meet the incredible and growing demand for AI chips and supercomputers, strengthens our supply chain and boosts our resiliency.”
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Ethane
Just a reminder with regard to ethane, the US, shale.
From a reader, January 20, 2021, link here:
I did a double take when you posted that story about the inaugural shipment from the Orbit Terminal on the maiden voyage of the Seri Everest.
That ~900 thousand barrels capacity is almost 4 times larger than the initial 'Dragon Ships' ethane carriers that were launched just 5 years ago.
Prior to that 2016 lifting of ethane from Marcus Hook, there was virtually NO 'industry' of seaborne transport of ethane except for small, infrequent barge transfers in the Baltic region.
The explosive growth of both ethane and propane production from US shales has prompted ...
1. Big build out of new steam crackers and Propane Dehydrogenation Units (PDHs) in India, Europe, and China to process ethane/propane as making products from these raw materials is MUCH cheaper than using naptha, the historical supply which is generally obtained from oil.
2. An entirely new 'industry' has emerged in the building and launching of ships designed for the express purpose of transporting liquified ethane and propane, something never before even contemplated.
There are now 'virtual pipelines' ferrying these products to Indian, Chinese, and European plants. A huge Propane Dehydrogenation Plant is opening next year in Belgium and a massive cracker/PDH complex in Antwerp is set to come online in 2024. US shale is expected to provide virtually all the raw products.
Folks who thought China was going to quit making plastic had no clue.
And it comes back to this: who needs whom more?
Locator: 48542G7.
This is the fallacy of the EU / G-7.
The EU acts as a bloc to further its agenda, but three of the seven G-7 are EU member states.
Why doesn't the US get to "sit" eight members and make it the G-14?
Disposable income growth of G-7 countries, 2007 - 2024, link here.
Locator: 48541SAUDI.
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What Was Better: The Blog Or Simon Watkins?
Locator: 48499SAUDI.
Back to the future.
Saudi cash crunch, 2016. Link here.
And, there was another Saudi cash crunch, in 2023. Tag: SC-23. Saudi Arabia in a world of hurt, June 15, 2023, link here.
Saudi cash reserves: link here.
Fred. St Louis Fed. Link here.
To balance the budget:
Locator: 48540B.
Tea leaves: it's not going to be a good summer for Bakken operators.
The big stories today:
Trump's first 100 days: it's only his first 100 days. That's all that can be said.
Ukraine: it's starting to down on Europe they misread the tea leaves four years ago
Turkey: lurking. Talk of restoring the old Ottoman Empire -- headed south into the Levant.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $61.25. Trump definitely winning on this one.
New wells:
RBN Energy: US energy dodges a bullet as new fees target Chinese shipping.
The U.S. government recently released the final rules for the Section 301 fees proposed earlier this year, intended to address the dominance of China’s shipbuilding industry. According to the new rules, exports on Chinese-owned, -operated or -built vessels are mostly excluded — great news for U.S. energy producers and exporters, especially in the NGL sector. In addition, things are starting to change in the LPG markets due to the U.S./China tariff war. Propane vessels are being diverted, at least one ethane cargo has been scrapped, and China is reportedly looking into exempting ethane from its 125% import tariff. In today’s RBN blog, we look at what the latest developments mean for the U.S. energy industry.