Locator: 48710WARREN.
On another huge day for the Dow. Dow up 245. S&P 500 up another 15 points.
Something's gotta give.
Either the market.
Or BRK.
See this post.
Thursday, July 10, 2025
BRK-B -- Chart Of The Day -- July 10, 2025
See this post.
Food Stamps -- The Book Page -- July 10, 2025
Locator: 48709ARCHIVES.
Food stamps: Trump cuts hurt "average" families. "Average family" could lose $146 / month. Wow, how much is the "average family" getting now?" Link here.
Food stamps: years ago, my son-in-law separated from a high-paying job in the US Navy and went to get his MBA at Harvard University. Our daughter was taking an overnight low-paying job as an new entry-level nurse. They were living on almost nothing.
They applied for food stamps, a godsend at the time. Two years later, he was now being paid a huge salary. Our daughter called the "food stamp" people to say that they no longer met the requirement for food stamps and needed to be removed from the program. The food stamp representative told my daughter they would leave her on the program for the next year or so. It was easier for everyone all around to leave her on the program than to remove her now and then maybe have to re-instate her later if financial conditions changed. So, there you have it.
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The Book Page
Assyria: The Rise and Fall of the World's First Empire, Eckart Frahm, c. 2023. Notes are here.
Bottom of page 87:
Ashurnasirpal I expressed his desperation in a prayer to the goddess Ishtar of Ninevah, in which he lamented:
You have covered me with sickness. Why am I at death's door? ....
To be sure, to some extent Ashurnasipal's grievances may have been clichés. Mesopotamian appeals to the gods often followed the unspoken rule tht ony the squeaky wheel get the grease.
When I first read that, I immediately thought about what the governor of North Carolina had said during his interview on CNBC earlier this morning, asking for more help from Washington (DC).
Americans are like the Assyrians with regard to their problems. The Assyrians blamed the gods, and then appealed to those very same gods for help. The Assyrians refused to take responsibility for their own actions and then lamented that the gods were not helping them in their time(s) of crisis, often of their own making.
Fast forward to the 21st century, and the governor of North Carolina -- the #1 state for business climate -- is lamenting that things could be better, that the state now faces pockets of crisis (mostly of the state's own making -- like expansion of Medicaid) and the governor is appealing to the gods in Washington (DC) to come to his aid.
Human beings have simply replaced one god, in this case Ishtar, with other gods, like the trinity Jeffries-Schumer-Boasberg.
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Word For The Day
Paradise.
Also from the same source as above. Page 98.
Middle East.
Assyria.
879 BC: king moves capital from Ashur to Cahal. This is a huge deal.
A canal was dug from the Upper Zab (tributary of the Tigris) to irrigate a luscious park with numerous exotic plants, including beautiful pomegranates (which intrigued me every summer growing up in Williston, ND).
"Streams of water (luminous) as the stars of heaven" flowed into the "pleasure garden," the earliest known of the many palatial parks and gardens that would be come central features of the imperial landscapes of the Middle East -- from the paridaida of the Persian kings in Pasargadae and Persepolis (from which the word "paradise" derives) to the palace gardens of the Abbasids in medieval Baghdad and Samarra. The tradition would also spread eastward to India and westward to Rome.
The word, and particularly the spelling, paridaida reminds me much of Spanish. Thank you, Duolingo. I now have a 1,751-day streak over on Duolingo, learning Spanish. That equals 4.7973 years of not missing one day of practicing Spanish on Duolingo. It's a free app, but I pay the annual fee to avoid the ads. It's well worth it. I can't remember if it's $89 or $129 but I think it's $89. The piano lesson app I have for Sophia is $129, I believe.
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"The Age Of Magnates" and China
From AI:
In Assyrian history, the "Age of Magnates" refers to a period of internal power struggles and fragmentation within the Neo-Assyrian Empire, specifically from the late 9th to mid-8th centuries BCE. During this time, powerful officials and generals, known as magnates, vied for influence with the Assyrian kings, leading to a weakening of central authority. This era ended with the reign of Tiglath-Pileser III, who restored strong royal power.
When you read this section in the book on Assyria, it sounds a lot like what might be going on China under Xi right now. This could have happened in Russia/Putin but somehow Putin managed to maintain control.
Program Announcement -- If The Market Opens In The Green, I Will Quit Blogging Until Later Today -- July 10, 2025
Locator: 48708MARKET.
Amazon Prime Days: best deals -- according to TNYT. Link here. I found this site un-useful.
It's much better to go directly to Amazon.com and then begin surfing. Amazon breaks it out very, very nicely. And, no, despite what TNYT says, most of the "prime day" deals on Amazon do NOT stink. Wow, sounds like sour grapes. I wonder if TNYT goes on sale (a yearly subscription) on Amazon Prime Days. LOL.
The writer of this NYT article on Amazon's Prime Days comes across as a spoiled brat who isn't a Prime member, and doesn't really know how to surf Amazon efficiently. But then that's just me.
By they way, for the past twenty years, maybe longer, my favorite company was Apple. No longer. Amazon is now my favorite company with regard to shopping. With regard to investing, I'm still on the fence, but I no longer add to my Apple position (I'm so overweighted in AAPL) but I add regularly to AMZN in very small increments (mostly because there are so many opportunities (and charities) competing for my dollars.
If you think inflation is only going to get worse, and the US is going to implode due to the deficit, highly recommend that you "distribute" your wealth now to extended family members and elementary school teachers. Your dollars will go further now than they will in the future.
Amazon Prime Days: every school year and throughout the school year I buy classroom supplies for the school Sophia attends and give cash gifts to some of the teachers as the year progresses and they run out of supplies. Right now, Amazon is a big, big help. One of the big purchases yesterday was three boxes of #2 pencils, 150 in each box. I was alerted to the need for these pencils last year during state testing exams.
Next time you're buying AA batteries, compare what you are paying to 25 cents / battery. Generally speaking, the best price I can find for AA and AAA batteries: 50 cents / battery. These may not last as long as some other brand name batteries, but my hunch no one will ever know / no one will ever notice.
Another tease: whether you love him or hate him -- I don't find a lot of folks on the fence, President Trump is most transformational president we've had since FDR (?). I can't imagine what it would be like with another Obama-Hillary-Bernie-Jill-Karine administration. Absolutely no way.
Pre-market:
- AMD: up almost 4%.
- NVDA: up 1%.
- ORCL: ex-dividend today and up 1.5%.
- AVGO: up nearly a percent.
- PLTR: flat; tea leaves -- will turn green today.
- AAPL: down a bit; tea leaves -- disarray, chaotic, no pattern with these tea leaves
- MP: up 64%.
- AMZN: flat; tea leaves -- will turn green today.
Good luck to everyone.
I'm headed out to the pool -- 8:26 a.m. CT -- Thursday.
Sophia and I will be seeing the new Superman movie tonight -- in a special preview, before it launches nationwide tomorrow. No trailers. Will start immediately when the house lights go dim.
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TSM
Breaking.
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AMZN
NFL commissioner on CNBC this morning. Long segment on Amazon's Thursday Night Football. Huge success.
Like AAPL, it's getting harder and harder to figure out what business sector Amazon is in.
Retail? Logistics? Tech? The cloud? Advertising? Entertainment?
Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
Briefly:
- I am
inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front
of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it
comes to the Bakken.
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
- If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
- I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
- I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
- Longer version here.
Chart Of The Day -- Word Of The Day -- Magnets -- July 10, 2025
Locator: 48707RAREEARTH.
Autos: before we get started, a teaser: as our own cars get much, much older, and we need to replace them, and our grandchildren are growing older and they need cars, my wife and I have bought three new cars this year (so far).
I doubt we will be buying a fourth before the year is out, but it's possible. There's always more to learn. I think every reader agrees with me that high school students need to take a financial course (or courses). One of those sessions would be on buying cars. I might talk about that later.
Now, back to regular programming.
Pentagon: from what I can tell, and based on what ChatGPT told me, this is the first time the Pentagon has invested directly into a publicly-traded company. I could be wrong; I don't know but this seems very interesting.
Rare earth: on the blog last month. This was so incredibly predictable. Hope everyone is paying attention. Could surge 60% today.
So many story lines.
Several favorite headlines in this screenshot! My favorite: Jeffries downgrades MP. Okay.
*********************************
Re-Posting
From last month:
Locator: 48741ARCHIVES.
Some weeks ago, maybe months ago, I
thought about the following, and mentioned it once or twice on the blog.
I'm reminded of it again, today, watching CNBC.
I recently mentioned "folks (who are) afraid to get rich. Really rich."
An analyst for one of the large Wall Street investment firms was arguing her case on CNBC: she's still not ready to recommend that folks put new money into the market. She said there were just too many unknowns.
She really came across as someone who was afraid to get rich.
I wouldn't want her as my financial advisor.
Bears and bulls.
Watching the market for the past month, it comes back to this for me: if you aren't ready to invest now, when will you ever be ready to invest?
My
audience: those with a rolling 30-year investment horizon. "Rolling"?
It means that every day, the horizon begins another 30-year investment
period.
MP Materials. A "new one" that pops up on my radar screen. From wiki:
MP Materials Corp. is an American rare-earth materials company headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
MP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass mine, the only operating rare earth mine and processing facility in the United States.
MP Materials focuses its production on Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr), a rare earth material used in high-strength permanent magnets that power the traction motors found in electric vehicles, robotics, wind turbines, drones and other advanced motion technologies.
MP Materials is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "MP." As of December 2021, JHL Capital Group, QVT Financial and CEO James Litinsky were the company's three largest shareholders, with about 7.7% of the company owned by Shenghe Resources, a Chinese company partly owned by the country's Ministry of Natural Resources.
Has anyone, lately, heard of magnets? Asking for a friend.
Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
Briefly:
- I am
inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front
of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it
comes to the Bakken.
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
- If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
- I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
- I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
- Longer version here.
As AI Boom ACCELERATES -- July 10, 2025
Locator: 48706AWS.
AMD: up 2.7% in pre-market trading; up $3.68/ share in pre-market trading.
It's not just "a" boom. It's a boom that's accelerating.
I missed the best part of that story. CNBC, link here:
CNBC Top State For Business In The US — NASCAR Driver Announces -- July 10, 2025
Locator: 48705ECONOMY.
Award goes back to North Carolina. Link here.
I can only imagine how incredible things are in North Carolina when I see what's going on in Texas when I look around the growth in this state (Texas).
But the interview with the governor suggests he needs more federal aid. The state is ten days into its new fiscal year and doesn't have a budget.
Texas? Doing just fine.
Quality of life in North Caroline: ranks #29 across the nation. That makes me question the CNBC ranking. 29th.
Does have state income tax. And looks like it will be increasing the state income tax.
Texas does not.
Best for business:
Massachusetts: most improved.
Alaska: dead last.
Runner-up: Texas.
Third place: Florida.
We Can Never Go Back -- July 10, 2025
Locator: 48704VW.
F. Scott Fitzgerald / The Great Gatsby taught we can never go back. That's the real story.
Psychedelic failure, the VW ID.Buzz . Link here.
As psychedelic rock blared, Thomas Schäfer hopped onto a Huntington Beach, Calif., stage flanked by surfboards two years ago to announce the rebirth of an automotive icon, the Volkswagen.
The German auto giant was bringing back the bus as an electric vehicle, albeit one with a boxy design and two-tone paint job reminiscent of the original. The reboot was more than two decades in the making, and the company said the vehicle would soon be available in the U.S.
“Finally, finally,” said Schäfer, a top VW executive, as the bus they called the ID.Buzz rolled across the stage to wolf whistles from the crowd.
The reception since has been considerably less enthusiastic.
Volkswagen had hoped to ride a wave of nostalgia for a much-loved symbol of 1960s hippie counterculture as a way to carve out a larger chunk of the lucrative U.S. auto market—a feat that has defied the world’s second-largest carmaker for half a century.
Instead, the vehicle is shaping up to be yet another American misadventure for the company, reaching dealers years late, over budget and just in time for a trade war.
Built in Germany, the model was delivered to its first U.S. customer days after the election of Donald Trump, who would go on to introduce a 25% tariff on imported cars and roll back government support for EVs.
With a battery range of less than 250 miles per charge, the ID.Buzz doesn’t compare favorably with other new EVs. The German-led design also failed to account for some uniquely American tastes: It often needs to be fitted with extra cupholders at U.S. ports.
Capping the model’s troubles, all the vehicles shipped to the U.S. were recalled in April because the third-row seats were too broad, allowing three passengers to squeeze into a space with only two seat belts. Sales were suspended for two months while Volkswagen fit plastic parts to narrow the row, which meant the company only delivered 564 in the three months before the end of June.
M5 -- Thursday, July 10, 2025
Locator: 48703APPLE.
From earlier this year. At the link scroll down to M5 note from Beth.
M5:
The Apple M5 chip is the next generation of Apple's custom silicon, expected to debut in late 2025. It's rumored to be manufactured using TSMC's third-generation 3nm process, offering potential performance and efficiency improvements over the M4 chip. The M5 is anticipated to power new MacBook Pro and MacBook Air models, with potential releases in the fall.
Chips are tracked here.
The M5 is tracked here.
System on a Chip (SoC). SoC tracked here on the blog.
- M-series, M1, M2, M3, M4, and M5: TSM, 3-nm -- desktops, laptops, tablets -- newest models in 2024.
- Apple's press release.
- now, M5 -- July 5, 2024. September 27, 2024, December 26, 2024. The M5 will be tracked here.
Thursday -- July 10, 2025
Locator: 48702B.
Jobless claims: weekly. Slightly lower than expected.
HES, CVX, XOM: what's the holdup? It's been at least eight days. [Later: arbitrator upholds CVX acquisition of HES, July 18, 2025, link here.]
Trump, Greened. Link here.
Delta: pre-market. Surges 13% on profit outlook. President Trump has been president for about six months.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $67.60. Trafigura plans to close UK biodiesel plant amid challenging market, oilprice.
New wells:
- Friday, July 11, 2025: 18 for the month, 18 for the quarter, 448 for the year,
- 40689, conf, Oasis, Merlin 5602 43-15 2B,
- Thursday, July 10, 2025: 17 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 447 for the year,
- 40849, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-17 7H,
RBN Energy: geothermal energy may be poised for growth thanks to shale drilling advances.
Drilling techniques originally developed to unlock oil and gas from shale formations are increasingly being adapted to access and extract heat from deep underground rock formations, enabling the generation of electricity from geothermal sources. And while geothermal’s share of total U.S. electricity generation remains quite small, it may be poised to accelerate, opening up new opportunities for companies in the oil and gas sector. In today’s RBN blog, we explain the basics of geothermal energy, its main advantages and drawbacks, and how U.S. expertise in oil and gas comes into play.
To begin our discussion of geothermal energy, we need to start with a quick trip back to basic geology. Geothermal energy is produced by the slow decay of radioactive particles in the earth’s core, a process that happens in all rocks. The earth has four major sections: an inner core of solid iron, where temperatures can reach an astounding 10,800 degrees Fahrenheit (°F); an outer core about 1,500 miles thick; a mantle of magma and rock about 1,800 miles thick; and a crust of solid rock that is 15-35 miles thick under the continents and three to five miles thick under the oceans. Underground temperatures are relatively stable near the surface at 50°F to 60°F and generally increase by 72°F to 87°F for every mile (5,248 feet) of depth.
People have directly used geothermal energy for bathing and cooking for millennia — via hot springs — and have more recently used it to heat buildings and in certain industrial applications. (Geothermal energy can also make its way to the surface via volcanoes and geysers.) But there are also naturally occurring reservoirs of geothermal energy that can be found deep underground and are largely undetectable from the surface. Geologists use various methods to find them, although drilling a well and testing the temperature deep underground is the most reliable method. Those reservoirs can be tapped to generate electricity through an enhanced geothermal system (EGS), which is the step we want to focus on next.
A naturally occurring geothermal system, also known as a hydrothermal system, requires three key elements to generate electricity: heat, fluid and permeability, which is the ability of fluid to move freely through underground rock, similar to oil and gas drilling. (Much more on that comparison to come.) In many areas, the underground rock is hot enough but there is not enough natural permeability or fluids present. In such cases, an EGS can be used to create a reservoir to tap that heat for energy. In an EGS, water is injected deep underground under controlled conditions (#1 in Figure 1 below) to create new fractures and reopen pre-existing fractures, thereby enhancing permeability. Operators pump the hot water to the surface to produce steam (#2), where it then spins a turbine connected to a generator to produce electricity (#3). The steam then heads to a cooling tower (#4) and is pumped back below the surface (#5). It’s more complicated in real life, of course, and there are several variations of power plants, but that’s the basic approach.
Figure 1. Geothermal Power Plant Schematic. Source: Environmental Protection Agency
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