Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Whiting With Three New Permits -- July 28, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1259626035

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
  • 35936, SI/A, XTO, Badlands Federal 21X-13AXD, North Fork, t--; cum --;
Three new permits, #37747 - #37749 --
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Foreman Butte
  • Comments: 
    • Whiting has permits for three Link wells in SESW 12-150-102; sited as below:
      • 37747, loc, Whiting, Link 14-12H, Foreman Butte, 420 FSL 1338 FWL;
      • 37748, loc, Whiting, Link 14-12-2H, Foreman Butte,  420 FSL 1362 FWL;
      • 37749, loc, Whiting, Link 14-12-3H, Foreman Butte, 456 FSL 1510 FWL;
The graphics:

Long Island Electricity, The Movie Page -- July 28, 2020

Electricity, ISO New York: Long Island residents are paying over a $100/MWh (marginal cost) at mid-afternoon, Tuesday:

The Movie Page

From wiki, today's feature matinee:
Brief Encounter is a 1945 British romantic drama film, directed by David Lean, about a passionate extramarital affair in England shortly before WWII.
The protagonist is Laura, a married woman with children, whose conventional life becomes increasingly complicated following a chance meeting at a railway station with a married stranger with whom she subsequently falls in love.
The film stars Celia Johnson, Trevor Howard, Stanley Holloway and Joyce Carey.
The screenplay is by Noël Coward, based on his 1936 one-act play Still Life.
The soundtrack prominently features the Piano Concerto No. 2 by Sergei Rachmaninoff, with Eileen Joyce on piano.
Brief Encounter was met with wide praise from critics upon its release and is today considered to be among Lean's finest works.
In 1999, the British Film Institute voted Brief Encounter the second greatest British film of all time.
In 2017, a poll of 150 actors, directors, writers, producers and critics for Time Out magazine saw it ranked the twelfth best British film ever.
The voice-over throughout the film is in the form of an unspoken confession from Laura to her husband.
This film / story could easily be taken from Graham Greene's life.  One of the best biographies I have ever read was a three volume biography of Graham Greene by Norman Sherry, San Antonio, TX-based at the time he wrote the biography. We happened to be living in San Antonio at the time I read the biography. It was quite coincidental.

TCM is a national treasure. No additional costs to basic cable television. No commercial interruptions during the movie. The feature films are introduced by a presenter, who also provides an epilogue after the movie concludes. The "stable" of presenters has increased. There is a slight "political" bent being introduced but it's very subtle and I suppose, if one notices it, like I have, one is simply too sensitive.

Again, from wiki, the lead actress:
Dame Celia Elizabeth Johnson, DBE (18 December 1908 – 26 April 1982) was an English actress, whose career included stage, television and film. She was known for her roles in the films In Which We Serve (1942), This Happy Breed (1944), Brief Encounter (1945) and The Captain's Paradise (1953).
For Brief Encounter, she was nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress.
A six-time BAFTA Award nominee, she won the BAFTA Award for Best Actress in a Supporting Role for The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie (1969).

A Closer Look At The Well Coming Off Confidential List Today -- CLR Ogden - #36389 -- July 28, 2020

Highlights of the well that came off the confidential list today:
From the file report:
  • spud: August 6, 2019
  • cease drilling: August 14, 2019 (wow -- 8 days)
  • target: middle Bakken
  • TD: 20,263' MD
  • TVD: 10,172.33'
  • VS: 10,524.63'
  • drilled south to north; BH - NENE section 11-154-92
  • geological services began at 8,400' MD
  • KOP reached: 1:15 a.m. CDT, August 10, 2019
    • these are important dates and times, repeating, KOP reached 1:15 a.m. CST, August 10, 2019
  • drilling resumed at 9:00 a.m. CDT, same day, August 10, 2019 about eight hours later, to begin the curve
    • the last slide for the curve ended at 7:40 p.m. CST, August 10, 2019, so less than eleven hours to build the curve;
  • lateral: drilled out of the casing at 3:00 a.m. CDT, on August 12, 2019; 
    • gases ranged from100 - 1187 units, unremarkable;
  • the well reached TD of 20,263' MD at 12:45 a.m CST on August14, 2019; just under 48 hours;
    • the wellbore tracked throughout the middle Bakken formation for 100% of the lateral
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

From FracFocus:
  • the well was fracked 11/24/2019 - 12/2/2019 -- 8 days; I generally see about ten days for a two-section lateral frack;
  • 8.158 million gallons of water; typical; moderate frack;
  • water by mass: 88.405%

Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- July 28, 2020

Censorship: with Google, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, et al, censoring various accounts, I don't understand why those accounts don't simply have a blog. With bookmarks, folks can get to these blogs as quickly to Google, YouTube, etc. The blogs would not replace their tweets and other social media posting but would be additive / supplemental. 

Netflix. Regular, long-term readers know my fascination with Netflix. It was the first company I ever, ever said was going to be the "next big thing" -- that was about ten years ago. I made the claim when I realized that it was the only "content" company that even my 80-year-old dad could master. At the time, Netflix still had the one- or two-day DVD rental delivery. Then they went to streaming. My dad would never use streaming but he know how to use the post office and he knew how to play DVDs, and the rest is history, as they say.
Netflix has since changed immensely, but their customers have changed with them.

In an article today, a spokesman for Panera Bread said he wants his company to be the "Netflix of delivery." That speaks volumes.

“You just turn on Netflix and it’s there. And what’s our version of that? What kind of services or categories would be of interest?" asks Panera's chief brand and concept officer Eduardo Luz.
Now this, from Marketwatch, "here's why Netflix, now trading below $500 will go to $1,000."

ISO New England

Link here. Early morning, has already spiked to $80/MWh:

Wind is contributing 0.7% of total energy consumed. Wind accounts for 14% of renewable contribution, and renewable contribution right now is 5%.

Had The US Followed Sweden's Example -- July 28, 2020

.... the US might have had a similar outcome as Sweden.

I think folks forget that the original plan was to flatten the curve, not eliminate the virus overnight.

There are currently two groups of folks: those who have already tested positive for Covid-19, and those who will.

When the vaccine becomes available, a third group will be added: those who think they are no longer at risk. Remember: the "seasonal flu" vaccine is less than 45% effective -- previously reported by the CDC.

It would have been very, very painful; a lot of politicians would have lost their jobs, but we would be done with Covid-19 by now. The CDC recommendations will ensure that Covid-19 is with us well into middle-2021 -- per Google's parent company, Alphabet, announcement yesterday.

The graphic from this link:

My hunch is that had Americans been allowed to make their own decisions on a local, state, and/or regional basis -- again, on their own -- not through top-down mandates, Americans would have handled this just fine. In retrospect, the high-risk areas: nursing homes; subways; airlines; huge unregulated rallies like demonstrations and rallies; perhaps mega-churches in the south; maybe packed beaches in some areas; and so forth.

I'm probably wrong. Whatever.

Only One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- July 28, 2020

KODAK! Boom! Trading at just under $10 this morning; jumping $6 in pre-market trading. 

Oh-oh: Oprah's O Mag to end regular print editions after 20 years.  

Fast and furious:
  • Papa John's to hire 10,000 workers: pizza travels well
  • McDonald's global sales suffer more than expected: French fries don't travel well at all; I have no sympathy for McDonald's; they extended lock down longer than mandated here in Texas; but their big problem? French fries simply do not travel well.
  • Panera Bread looking to be the Netflix of delivery
  • Pfizer tops 2Q20 earnings forecast; guidance upped; shares surge (well, that was the headline, but shares did not jump all that much)
  •  Companies like AT&T will benefit from interest rate cuts; just a matter of time before rates go negative; will play havoc with insurance companies; 
  • US mint cutting back on deliveries to it authorized purchasers. Link here. Production at West Point complex will slow for next 12 to 18 months. China Panda is one of my favorite. The US Silver Eagle, $1 1-oz brilliant uncirculated coin has almost doubled in past year; I used to buy them for about $20/coin; now I see they are selling for $38/coin from the same dealer
OPEC basket: not by much, but down for the 2nd consecutive day, down to $43.14. Saudi can't' make it on $40-oil; nor can Russia. See next story.

OPEC plans for end game: Reuters. OPEC prepares for an age of dwindling demand.
OPEC has been scaling back expectations. In 2007, it forecast world demand would hit 118 million bpd in 2030. By last year, its 2030 forecast had dropped to 108.3 million bpd. Its November report is expected to show another downward revision, one OPEC source says.
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1259626035

One well coming off the confidential list -- Tuesday, July 28, 2020: 68 for the month; 68 for the quarter, 514 for the year:
RBN Energy: a fight is brewing for Canada's propane exports.
Propane exports from AltaGas and Vopak’s Ridley Island Propane Export Terminal on the west coast of British Columbia jumped to 52 Mb/d in May, the highest since it began operations in May 2019 and exceeding the terminal’s original design capacity for the second time this year. The increased exports suggest expanded capacity at the facility and the potential for sustained higher exports from there even as Western Canada’s propane supplies plateaued in 2019 and then were hammered lower earlier this year as oil prices and demand collapsed.
The resulting tighter balance in the greater Pacific Northwest region has boosted prices there, wreaking havoc on price spreads and disrupting rail movements to U.S. destinations that have relied on them for the past few years, from the Midwest to California. Moreover, Western Canadian export capacity is poised to nearly double by next spring, when a second nearby export terminal is slated to begin operations. With supply upside looking tenuous, but overseas exports set to rise further in early 2021, there is a serious squeeze emerging for propane rail exports to the U.S. Today, we consider the implications of what could be a much tighter propane market in Western Canada over the next few years.

Notes From All Over -- The Midnight Edition -- July 27/28, 2020

Movie night: TCM: I cannot believe it -- George C. Scott in a romantic comedy. LOL. Of course, he was in Dr Strangelove, too. In tonight's movie, of all things, a cameo appearance with Bob Hope.

MLB: a reader corrected me with regard to my comments on MLB and coronavirus; the reader was spot on. I was wrong. On top of that, the WSJ is now reporting the entire "season" is in jeopardy. My hunch we will know sooner than later. This does not bode well for the NBA. Nor the NFL. And Google: has formally announced that its employees will work from home through July, 2021. At least we've flattened the curve.

Goldilocks: my favorite word when used along with the phrase, "stock market rally." From Investor's Business Daily: Dow Jones futures: a Goldilocks stock market rally? GOP stimulus plan unveiled, Pfizer vaccine starts phase 3 trail. From the linked article:
The coronavirus stock market rally over the past couple of weeks could be shifting to a slightly cooler pace. But that could be a Goldilocks stock market scenario in which the major indexes advance at a modest rate, letting leading stocks run relatively safely.

Pfizer stock, McDonald's stock and Visa stock are near buy points, though their relative strength lines show that these DJIA components have not been coronavirus market rally leaders. Zebra stock, also near a buy point, has a stronger RS line. AudioCodes stock and AMD stock are extended. Dexcom stock is just above a buy point while Masimo stock has formed a new handle in its consolidation.

Lululemon stock, Shopify stock, Apple stock and Dexcom stock are on IBD Leaderboard. Masimo stock is on the IBD Long-Term Leaders list. AudioCodes stock, AMD stock and DXCM stock are on the IBD 50

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Milk: this is a most interesting story, also in the WSJ -- Walmart / Kroger are bottling their own milk and shaking up the American dairy industry. Very, very interesting. If a gallon of milk is really priced at $1.19 -- wow. I just checked the ads for our neighborhood grocer: $2.69 for one gallon. Walmart / Kroger selling it for less than half the best price in our neighborhood store. Hmmm.

And finally, this, also from the WSJ: Planned Parenthood throws Margaret Sanger under the bus.
All my information regarding Planned Parenthood and "the pill" was through the mainstream media all these years. But then last year, or thereabouts, I came across Jonathan Eig's The Birth of the Pill, c. 2014. Wow, that really helped me put the story in perspective.
It is amazing, looking back on the birth control pill, how my coming of age years were literally "before the pill" and "after the pill." High school, before the pill; college, after the pill. Or something like that.