Monday, June 1, 2020

Three CLR Hendrickson Wells In Elm Tree Are Back On Line; Looks Like A New Hendrickson Well Has Been Completed -- June 1, 2020

The well:
  • 18224, 1,099, CLR, Hendrickson 1-36H, Elm Tree, t12/09; cum 755K 4/20; off-line as of 2/17 as more Hendrickson wells are completed; came back on-line 4/17; huge jump in production; FracFocus -- no evidence of re-frac; no sundry form suggesting this well was re-fracked but the huge jump in production suggests that it must have been re-fracked; I don't think it was re-fracked; 18224, Hendrickson, CLR, Elm Tree oil field; production updated at this link;
Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
The well:
  • 30335, 430, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 3-36H2, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t2/17; cum 271K 4/20;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The well:
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The wells are probably coming off line now that this well has been fracked (?) and brought into production:
  • 33929, SI/NC-->conf, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 13-25H2, producing as of 2/20:
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold

A Slawson Whitmore Well Goes Off Line -- June 1, 2020

Slawson has taken a nice Whitmore well off line. We just talked about the Slawson Whitmore wells not too long ago.

The well:
  • 17303, 1,676, Slawson, Whitmore 1-6H, Parshall, single section, t8/08; cum 542K 4/20;
Recent production (note, off line as of 4/20):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

OMG! CLR Did It Again -- The Dreaded Bakken Decline -- Another Carus Permit -- June 1, 2020

The dreaded Bakken decline:
  • the well was drilled back in 2007;
  • in 2019, production jumped from 700 bbls / month to 40,000 bbls/month, a 57-fold jump in production;
  • then another jump in production a few months later, from 20,278 bbls over 30 days to 33,200 bbls over 29 days;
We highlighted the Carus family of wells back in November, 2019. They are back in the news with a new CLR Carus permit. The Carus wells are tracked here. At that link, the most recently added permit has been added, #37606. In the immediate area is the actively producing well below:

The well, note the IP:
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

NDACR Increases By One -- Monday, June 1, 2020

Urals: we started to see this movement last week -- link here:

OPEC basket: $28.45, link here. OPEC basket has not been above $30 since mid-March, 2020. See this post.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1264604827

One new permit, #37606 -
  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Sanish (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has a permit for a Carus well in SEW 28-147-97, Sanish oil field, 442' FSL and 1466' FWL (the DAR say 1466' FEL; the scout ticket says 1466 FWL)
    • the CLR Carus wells are tracked here;
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 36858, SI/A, Slawson, Shakafox 7-28-21MLH, Big Bend, t--; cum --;
  • 36656, drl/A, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-93-9C-10-11H, Four Bears, t--; cum 18K over 10 days;
  • 36657, drl/A, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-93-9C-10-10H, Four Bears, t--; cum 26K over 17 days;
  • 36658, drl/A, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-93-9C-10-9H, Four Bears, t--; cum 24K over 23 days;

The Apple Page -- Nothing About The Bakken -- June 1, 2020

Right on cue: see #14 in the original post. That was posted yesterday, June 1, 2029. This evening, June 2, 2020, link here:

Need I say more?

Original Post
Note: in a long note like this there will be typographical and content errors. I will correct them later when I find them. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

AAPL: when I last checked in with AAPL some months ago, AAPL was flirting with a $1-trillion-valuation. After the lock down and meltdown, I sort of lost track, and lost interest. Last week I started checking in on the market again. I was surprised to see that AAPL's valuation is now up to $1.3 trillion. I was more surprised that it was Microsoft that was at the same valuation.

Today: I see AAPL finished up about $4/share, up about 1.25%, and holding that gain after hours.

High school students on their way to college this autumn and computers.

I bring this up because I assume some readers have high school students heading off to college this autumn.

If so, I assume the subject of a new computer will come up in conversation.

Here is my advice. This and $0.69 will get you a cup of senior coffee at McDonald's.

1. Every college student will need a laptop computer.

2. A tablet, as an additional mobile device, is optional, but no matter what you are told, a tablet with detachable keyboard is no substitute for a laptop computer.

3. The make (Apple, Dell, HP, Lenovo, Acer, Samsung, Google Chrome) is up to the student, not the parent.
Mobile devices are an extension of the student's personality. That settles the discussion regarding which make to buy. 
The upfront price differential between a Mac and a non-Mac may seem significant, but over the course of the lifetime of the use of the mobile device, that differential will go away. No "manufacturer" beats Apple for integrating desktop computers, laptops, tablets, smart phones, headphones / ear pods. Period. Dot.
4. If your student opts for a non-Mac, that's fine. But quit reading here; the rest has to do with Apple. Except for one point: if at all possible, avoid the Google Chrome: its association with elementary schools is too strong.

5. If your student wants an Apple product, the next question is which one.

6. The only laptop a college student should consider, regardless of the amount of money one wants to spend or is able to spend, is the MacBook Air. They do not need the MacBook Pro. If they say they do, I would like to hear their reasoning -- again, this has to do with college, not extracurricular activities.

7. The only real question when it comes to the MacBook Air: which base model product to buy: the $999 model or the $1,299 model. If money is no object, buy the $1,299 model. If money is an issue, the $999-model is just fine.

8. With either model one can upgrade to a) more memory (RAM); b) more storage (solid state); or, c) both.

9. If money is not an issue, upgrade both the memory and the storage.

10. If money is a minor issue, upgrade memory. It is easy to find external, and perhaps less expensive, storage down the road, if necessary.

11.  If money is a significant issue, there is no need whatsoever to upgrade either memory or storage.

12. Buy a case for the laptop; if money is an issue, one can find inexpensive alternatives.

13. AppleCare? I can't make a recommendation. That is 100% personal preference. I have never bought AppleCare (I bought my first Apple computer in 1984, and have bought not less than a dozen Apple computers over the years) and I have never had a problem. I believe Apple has a full 90-day warranty and some type of one-year warranty but I've long forgotten.

14. It is incredibly easy to get the MacBook Air up and running.
The only question that deserves some thought is whether to "automatically" save all data on the iCloud. If you check that box, you will find that the "free" storage is incredibly limited and one will have to buy additional (pretty much unlimited) storage for 99 cents/month. I have no problem with that. I have other issues with iCloud but the monthly subscription cost is not one of them. I do not use iCloud.
15. I don't subscribe to Apple's streaming music service but I would recommend doing so if the student wants it. The student will end up subscribing to some streaming music service at some point; if there is no preference, I would assume Apple makes most sense.

16. Printer: buy a very inexpensive inkjet printer at Walmart.
Once the student becomes familiar with the computer and if the printer ends up not meeting one's need, one can buy a laser printer. I think HP inkjet printers can still be found for about $69. Printer ink is incredibly expensive but whether that necessitates a laser printer or not depends on the student's needs which won't be known for a few months when going to college for the first time. I assume most students will eventually migrate to a laser printer.
17. Printer: make sure the printer is wi-fi enabled.

18. Apple computers won't play Blu-Ray DVDs. Don't ask. It's a huge irritant for me, but I assume most students will stream their movies and not buy DVDs.

19. You will need to get a dongle for your new Apple computer. Your son or daughter can explain a dongle to you; if not, the Apple associate will.

20. Maybe more later, but I need to go pick up Sophia.

21. Oh, one more thing. Smart phone? If money is an issue, one choice: the new SE. 

Notes From All Over, Monday Mid-Afternoon Edition -- June 1, 2020

Amazon: apparently a television crawler earlier today suggested that Amazon was discontinuing all deliveries immediately. A google search suggested that was untrue. Amazon did say they were discontinuing services to some areas in some cities until they can sort out how best to protect their drivers during this period of unrest. Apparently some routes in Portland, OR, might be affected, but the other cities mentioned would not affect me. Link over at Barron's
Large retailers that have held up better than their peers during the coronavirus pandemic must now adjust their operations to a new challenge: Nationwide unrest in the wake of the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis.
Big-box retailers, pharmacies and grocery chains are closing locations and adjusting hours as protestors clash with police and some demonstrations lead to destruction of storefronts and loss of merchandise. It isn’t clear that any of these closures or changes will affect their financial performance. 
The unrest has created challenges even for online-shopping giant Amazon. com. The company has scaled back its deliveries in a small number of cities. Bloomberg reported that Amazon told its drivers in Los Angeles and Chicago to halt deliveries Saturday night, and return any undelivered packages to the company’s pickup locations. It also has scaled down its deliveries in Portland. 
Amazon: this item I found much more interesting. Link here. Inc will suspend a delivery service that aims to compete with UPS and FedEx in the United States
The online retailer told customers that the service, Amazon Shipping, will be paused starting in June, according to the Wall Street Journal, which was first to report the change.
Amazon is suspending the service because it needs people and capacity to handle a surge in its own customers’ orders.
I order a lot from Amazon, and so far I have had no problems. I am amazed how well they seem to be doing, at least based on my experience.

Amazon Shipping: from Axios --
Amazon is emerging as a transportation juggernaut that could threaten carmakers, package delivery firms and even ride-hailing companies.
Why it matters: By building its own logistics ecosystem and investing in promising electric and autonomous vehicle startups, Amazon could lower its shipping costs to the point that partners like UPS become competitors instead.
What's new: Amazon is in advanced talks to buy self-driving tech startup Zoox, the Wall Street Journal reported this week. A deal, if it happens, would follow big investments in another automated driving startup, Aurora Innovation, and Rivian, a maker of electric trucks. 

Much more at the link.

Grilling This Past Weekend

Lessons learned and/or observations. Everything turned out really, really well, but I had forgotten some things; remembered them as I went along:

It's been a long time since I've done a beer-can chicken. Note to others and myself:
  • indirect heat; coals do not have to be as hot as possible;
  • plan at least an hour and 15 minutes; if a small-to-medium ("normal") chicken, one might get by with an hour but I would recommend planning on one hour and 15 minutes; for a larger chicken, plan on 90 minutes. If one doesn't use a thermometer, go "long." I generally don't use a thermometer; I did not use a thermometer this weekend
  • it's almost impossible to "mess up" beer-can chicken
    • I've never had a "bad" beer-can chicken
  • I always use a rub but I bet salt and pepper would be enough; I used a pecan rub this weekend; wow, it turned out well
  • one side appeared burned but in Texas we call that a "crust"
  • the "crust" was superb; it may look "burned" but it's not -- it was crisp (of course), and incredibly tasty; almost as good as pork rinds (LOL)
Steaks and salmon:
  • quality steaks: I no longer use a rub on quality steaks; salt and pepper is perfect; I don't like disguising the taste of quality steaks; salt flakes, sea salt, kosher salt, etc., would be best;
  • salmon: always on a plank; soak plank at least an hour before cooking
  • when I used a plank, I never wrap the salmon in aluminum foil; simply rests on the board; skin-side down if fillet has skin;
  • easiest marinade: soy sauce about an hour before cooking;

Busy, Busy, Busy -- So Far Today -- Early Morning Edition -- June 1, 2020

Thing are moving so quickly, I may have to start something new: top stories of the day. I already have top stories of the week, the month, and the year, but now it almost looks like I need to do top stories of the week.

Zero Hedge, scroll through the headlines at this link; ZeroHedge is permanently banned from Twitter:
Wuhan flu:
Saudi Arabia (without question, this is the top story of the day):
Pension funds:
And from last night:

Wuhan Flu: California Is Surging -- June 1, 2020

Link here.

On raw numbers alone, which, of course, mean nothing, Wuhan flu in California is now surging. This suggests that for California, the worst is yet to come.

On the other hand, raw numbers alone suggest New York state is now past the worst.

We will check back on this in one month to see if the trends hold.

For now, state rankings, number of total cases, total number of deaths, and same numbers per capita:
May 31, 2020
Total Cases
Total Deaths
Cases/1 million
Deaths/1 million
Tests/1 million
% pos tests
New York
North Dakota
Note: the percent positive cases is the number of total cases divided by the number of tests performed. To allow the table to fit, the column for number of tests performed is hidden, but can be seen at the link.

Millennials participation medal: Wuhan flu.

Real medal-winners, those who experienced the following, to name just a few:
  • the Killing Times, England/Scotland/Ireland
  • King Phillip's War
  • US civil war
  • French revolution
  • the Russian revolution
  • stock market crash of 1929
  • global depression in the early 20th century
  • WWI
  • WWII
  • the holocaust
  • Mao's cultural revolution
  • the Vietnam "War"
  • the Korean War
  • Iraq I, II, III. IV, V ....
  • and so on.

Six Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- June 1, 2020

This statistic blows me away. A huge "thank you" to the reader who caught this and sent it my way. Corona virus testing in North Dakota, link here:
  • as of yesterday, the state reports that there have been 72,040 tests for active disease;
  • it is being reported that, as of yesterday, there have been 2,577 cases of Wuhan flu in North Dakota
  • 2,577 / 72,040 = 3.6%
  • a positive test is not required to make a diagnosis of Wuhan flu, according to the CDC; a physician can make the diagnosis based on clinical symptoms and history; Medicare reimburses $13,000 automatically if a hospital admission carries a diagnosis of COVID-19;
  • obviously, everyone who tested positive for corona virus was diagnosed as an active case
  • many folks with symptoms consistent with Wuhan flu would have been tested more than once
  • North Dakota recently reported a problem with their testing
  • see related post here;
  • hard-hit states are showing a 20% rate on the tests performed for active disease;
  • less hard-hit states are showing a 10% rate 
  • but 3% -- that's fairly low -- like pretty close to 0%;
The magnificent seven, link here, or google: US pension plans warned they will run out of money by 2028 --
  • the following seven, less than three years at current burn rate --
    • Chicago Municipal: by 2025, maybe enough cash to cover three months of  the fund's retirement payments
    • New Jersey Teachers: by 2025, maybe 19 months of reserve;
    • Kentucky
    • Providence
    • Dallas Police and Fire
    • Charleston Fire
    • Chicago Police
  • This one might cover a little more than three years of benefit payments
    • Chicago Teachers 
  • the good news:
    • no pension fund is likely to run out of money in the next five years
OXY: it keeps getting worse. After slashing their dividend to one cent, now comes news that OXY faces investor lawsuit over Anadarko acquisition. Warren Buffett should be watching this closely. Link here.

CAPEX: IEA expects biggest ever drop in energy investment. Link here. Related article and comments here. But you know, when you actually look at the numbers, one could argue that for publicly traded companies, the CAPEX is not falling fast enough. CAPEX is dropping 20% compared to last year but ... somehow I just can't get excited from this headline, except in terms of jobs lost. From the linked article on IEA projections:
Global energy investment is now anticipated to fall by 20 percent, or almost $400 billion, compared to last year, the IEA highlighted. At the start of 2020, investment was on track for growth of around two percent, according to the IEA, which noted that this would have been the largest annual rise in spending in six years.
At least he's getting out of the basement:

OPEC basket, link here: $28.45, down from $29.02. The OPEC basket has not been above $30 since March 17, 2020.
  • Saudi needs $110-oil to balance its 2020 budget.
  • Saudi has enough money to cover its imports for less than four years
  • cash burn: $25 billion / month (March - April, 2020) from its "cash account"
  • a cash burn of $25 billion / month:
  • $500 billion in its cash account
  • $25 billion / month
  • 20 months of cash on hand (foreign exchange reserves)
  • cross-check: 2020 budget (forecast end of 2019): $272 billion
  • $272 billion / 12 months = $23 billion
Disclaimer: like Brian Williams, I often make simple arithmetic errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1164604827

Six wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, today --

Monday, June 1, 2020: 4 for the month; 149 for the quarter, 376 for the year:
  • 37047, drl/drl, CLR, Simmental Federal 10-16H, Elm Tree, no production data,
  • 36157, 895, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-12H, Eightmile, t12/19; cum 105K 3/20; these wells are tracked here; and they are huge wells;
  • 35192, drl/drl, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6B, Siverston, no production data,  
  • 33838, drl/drl, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 9-8-5-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
Sunday, May 31, 2020: 95 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 372 for the year:
  • None. There was no November 31.
Saturday, May 30, 2020: 95 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 372 for the year:
  • 36471, drl/NC, Slawson, Periscope Federal 2-10-11-12H, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 33839, drl/drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 4-8-5-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
RBN Energy: northeast gas production cutbacks take effect. Article archived here.
U.S. Northeast natural gas producers may be on the other side of a years-long battle with perpetual pipeline constraints and oversupply conditions. But they’re now facing new challenges to supply growth, at least in the near-term, from low crude oil and gas prices and the decline of a major downstream consumer of Appalachian gas supplies: LNG exports along the Gulf Coast. Most of the U.S. well shut-ins since the recent oil price collapse are concentrated in oil-focused shale plays, and gas volumes associated with those wells will be the hardest hit. However, a number of gas-focused Marcellus/Utica producers also have announced or escalated supply curtailments in recent weeks, as they wait for associated gas declines to buoy prices enough to support drilling. The pullback has had immediate effects on the region’s production volumes and supply-demand balance. Today, we provide an update on the latest Appalachia gas supply trends using daily gas pipeline flow data.
In recent years, U.S. production regions that focus on natural gas have taken a backseat as capital spending shifted toward crude oil-focused resource plays like the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford and others. Associated gas production from these oil-rich basins drove the bulk of the total gas supply growth in recent years, outpacing U.S. natural gas demand, eroding Henry Hub prompt gas futures prices, and taking even more of the air out of gas-focused drilling.
In the COVID era and with oil prices in the $30s/bbl, prospects for gas-weighted basins have turned somewhat more positive, at least for the longer term. Massive cutbacks in oil producers’ capital spending is translating to lower crude production and, with it, lower associated gas output. If production losses mount and tighten the supply-demand balance, gas prices would rise enough to incentivize producers to bring on rigs in gas-centric basins.
This has shifted sentiment in favor of gas-weighted exploration and production companies (E&Ps), particularly in Appalachia, boosting their share prices in the past couple of months as oil production cuts materialized.