Saturday, March 30, 2019

Week 13: March 24, 2019 -- March 30, 2019

Top international story this past week: Mexico scrambles to save its oil industry;

Biggest non-energy story this past week: Special Counsel Robert Mueller releases report; no collusion.

National energy stories of the week:
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
  • major flooding; oil wells impacted; county roads closed; dozens of McKenzie County homes evacuated; flooding is a result  of unusually thick ice causing a jam at the confluence
  • misallocation of tax collected from oil to be made right: Land Commissioner Jodi Smith discovered that the state's share of extraction tax collected from oil produced on the Fort Berthold Reservation had not been deposited in the Common Schools Trust Fund, the Foundation Aid Stabilization Fund and the Resources Trust Fund. All totaled, the three funds should have received about $270 million more than they did
  • pore space legislation passes house; now headed for house-senate conference
  • Lynn Helms travels to Washington State to oppose bill that would block Bakken CBR
  • ONEOK Bakken Pipeline proposing a 77-mile NGL pipeline -- from Demicks Lake NGP Plant in McKenzie County to Richland County, Montana; 74 miles of that 77-mile pipeline inside ND; 20-inch diamter; 40,000 bpd; y-grade NGLs (ethane, propane, butanes, iso-butate mix, pentanes, natural gasoline; $125 mllion project; ND portion entirely within McKenzie County
  • dispute over Meridian refinery near national park heats up in state court -- Associated Press
  • U.S. to overtake Russia in five years: A flood of U.S. oil exports is coming -- Bloomberg  
CLR to drill 18 wells in 2560-acre unit; already "a dozen" wells in that area

Bakken 101
Bakken: #1 in NGPL yield among US shale plays

Halo: Alfred Old Dog 
Halo: Rolf well; and, here;
Major affect on national economy
Frack sand revolution

Ballantyne acquires about 140 Crescent Point Energy wells in Bottineau County
Price of gasoline to soar: Obama killed the Keystone XL; US can't get enough heavy oil 
Tier 2/tier 3 looking good
Bakken, Niobrara producing at all-time highs -- RBN Energy

Skiing Park City, Utah -- March 30, 2019

The three granddaughters skiing, Park City, Utah, March 30, 2019:

Arianna, high school, way up front, in blue, in the lead.

Olivia, middle school, in red, next.

Sophia, 4 years ten months old, in the foreground, in blue, no poles.

Dad, filming.

Park City, Utah:

Saturday, March 30, 2019, T+87, Part 3 -- President Trump: Bestow The Presidential Medal Of Freedom on Robert Mueller

Run, don't walk, to get this to the president's chief of staff (whoever that might be this week).  

Bestow the Presidential Medal of Freedom on Robert Mueller.
The Presidential Medal of Freedom is an award bestowed by the President of the United States. The Presidential Medal of Freedom and the Congressional Gold Medal are the highest civilian awards of the United States. It recognizes those people who have made "an especially meritorious contribution to the security or national interests of the United States, world peace, cultural or other significant public or private endeavors". The award is not limited to U.S. citizens and, while it is a civilian award, it can also be awarded to military personnel and worn on the uniform.
What a hoot.

Float his name for the short list for RBG's seat on the Supreme Court.

Too bad, the president recently appointed a new US attorney general. Robert Mueller should have had that job.

US senator. Neither senate office comes up for election in New York in 2020, but a senate office in the commonwealth of Virginia comes up in 2020.

Re-name the Robert F. Kennedy Department of Justice building.

Robert Swan Mueller III born August 7, 1944) is an American lawyer, government official, and former soldier who served as the sixth director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), from 2001 to 2013.
Between 2017 and 2019, he was the Special Counsel of the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections and related matters.
A graduate of Princeton University and New York University, Mueller served as a Marine Corps officer during the Vietnam War, receiving a Bronze Star for heroism and a Purple Heart. He subsequently attended the University of Virginia School of Law. Mueller is a registered Republican in Washington, D.C., and was appointed and reappointed to Senate-confirmed positions by presidents George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama.
When you read that bio, but even more importantly, when you read "ten things you might no know about Robert Mueller," you understand immediately why he was not going to tarnish his legacy at this point in his career.

Similar, but longer list, at CNN.

Religion: not known. Probably not Catholic based on family history, personal education, but if he's Catholic, consider sainthood.

The iGeneration

Last night I observed Sophia, age 4 years 10 months, as she watched the "monitor" at the self-serve check in / boarding pass / baggage tag kiosk at American Airlines last night, on their way to Utah for a weekend of skiing.

She is incredibly adept at picking up any mobile device or using any laptop or tablet to take photos, play games, or re-set the settings. Or even the word processor, spelling her name and "jaguar." She has and uses a $19-disposable digital camera (it has more than 900 photos on a 4GB SanDisk). She punches in security codes to get into TutorTime. She asks me what the various indicators on the Toyota Civic dashboard mean when we drive to school. She punches in security codes at our apartment complex.

Her life is digital.

At the American Airlines kiosk, her dad was checking in four people, handing out tickets to each of his three daughters and getting baggage tags for four pieces of luggage. It took a fair amount of time, but the longer the better. It gave Sophia more time to really study what was happening. Her two older sisters seemed nonplussed, just a ritual through which to go, but for Sophia it appeared to be another electronic "game." And apparently her dad "won." He got four boarding passes, and four baggage tags.

I can't wait to teach her how to use an ATM. LOL. Benjamins are more useful than boarding passes. Speaking of which: why did they generate boarding passes? Why not simply use their iPhones when going through security and boarding? I assume they could have but their father probably wanted to make sure there were no glitches. And besides, Sophia really seemed to enjoy the process.

She enjoyed handing her boarding pass to TSA for consideration. I don't know if Corky was subjected to a full-body pat down.

Saturday, March 30, 2019, T+87, Part 2

I have not read the article. I have read the headline. That's all.

I assume some day I will read the article. But not today.

Link here.

Having said that I would love to write a note regarding all this, and connecting all the dots, but it is so tedious.

Suffice it to say, the mainstream media fails to report the "real" story here.

I can't wait to start hearing California progressives complaining about the high cost of gasoline. I assume Teslas will fly out of showrooms this summer. Or from wherever they fly.

The Apple Page

Link here at The Bismarck Tribune.

Without question, this is my favorite "app" on the iPhone. It is absolutely incredible. I assumed everyone knew what it was; I assumed everyone used it. I assume it was found across all platforms. Apparently not.

I find it amazing that The Bismarck Tribune posted such a great "ad" for Apple.

Saturday, March 30, 2019, T+87, Part 1

Beating a dead horse: the jobs data earlier this week -- first time unemployment claims -- I remember what a big deal these numbers were for Barack Obama when they were "good" -- which was seldom. But with the Trump administration, the numbers are pretty much ignored by the mainstream media -- despite some of the best numbers ever -- again, from earlier this week --
First time unemployment claims well below consensus and prior week claims revised strongly downward. Headlines anywhere? Nope.

Wow, this is incredible data being post today:

Jobless claims, link here:
  • prior: 221K
  • revised down: 216K
  • consensus: 225K 
  • actual: 211K
Look at that. First, the numbers from the previous week were even better than previously reported. The previous week's numbers were revised down from 221,000 first time unemployment claims to 216,000.

Then, this most recent week. The consensus? First time unemployment claims would jump from 221,000 (actually 216,000) to 225,000 (an increase of 9,000 from the previous week). In fact, the numbers dropped from 221,000 (unrevised and from which the analysts were working) to 211,000. 

That "hit" story on Biden. No one could have missed the most recent #MeToo story. With one well-timed story, Hillary has effectively taken Biden out of the race. Not one thing was new about that story; it did not tell us anything we didn't already know about Biden, but the source! Wow! The "allegation" came from a former Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor in Nevada. And look at the huge play this story got, at The Cut in which the spread looks like it came directly from The New York Times or the magazine insert. It's the banner headline at Drudge and it will be there for several days. Well-played Hillary. I'm still convinced that Hillary will fly in on her broom at a brokered DNC convention.

Tom Steyer: pretty much out of the news. Even googling, it's hard to find "recent news" regarding the billionaire suffering from TDS. Back in January he said he would not run for president. Now, with the release of the Mueller Report he pretty much further marginalized. All that congressional impeachment talk? Pretty much over. Pelosi knew early on the whole thing was bogus and that explains why why put the kabosh on the impeachment talk.

Mueller report: earlier I posted the losers following the release of the Mueller Report. The big winners? Jared and Ivanka. Sure, the SDNY  is still going after President Trump but I don't hear much talk about SDNY going after Jared and Ivanka.

Right, Wrong, Indifferent. Whether you like President Trump or not, one has to admit he's the smartest man in the room willing to call it like it is. Three specifics:
  • 100% right on the Fed's mistake raising rates when it did
  • predicting the soaring gasoline prices now being report, and knowing the reason -- unlike his predecessor
  • seeing the southern border immigration crisis months earlier
He was snookered by North Korea: the best 30-second sound bite -- the North Korean government/Kim do not see their government broken; there's nothing to be fixed; they are simply negotiating for relief on sanctions, or as they probably call them, "trade talks" or trade negotiations; in other words, business as usual.

He gave Saudi Arabia a huge pass on the Khashoggi bone saw execution -- but so did almost everyone else, including the EU and the UN. The most galling part of all this, at least for Trump: Saudi refusing to increase heavy oil exports to the US when most needed. 

Under his watch, the EU became even more dependent on Russia for energy, but that would have happened regardless of who was president.

Polarizing? It takes two to tango. Everyone knows from where the resistance is coming. The Mueller Report now becomes Exhibit A.


The big winners: the Brussels bureaucracy. They now have free rein.

The big losers: the English. The Scots? Hard to say. But definitely the English. On top of everything else, an "election" was stolen.


Burned through a third of its foreign reserves trying to shore up the lira.

Link here.

Another failed state.

Starbucks Is Changing Their "Rewards" Program

I have never used Starbucks rewards program. That's not entirely true. Years ago I used their reweards program  on a couple of occasions but when they changed to their current "stars" reward system some years ago I quit using my rewards. Seemed too complicated.

For the second time in the past week a Starbucks barista commented on the "huge" number of stars I have and should be using my rewards. Today, the barista told me that again, and told me that Starbucks would be changing their rewards system in mid-April and it would be less generous.

Right now, once one has "x" number of stars -- based on dollar amount -- one can use those stars for any food or drink offered in the cafe regardless of price. So, 275 stars (or whatever the nubmer is) -- when one reaches that number -- one can order any item, from a $2.00 cup of coffee to a $10 fruit and cheese entree, say "free" and the barista clicks on the "free" button on the register and the custome gets that item for free.

Starting in mid-April, the free item will "cost" a proportionate number of stars based on the price of the item. So a cup of coffee might cost 175 stars while that $10 fruit and cheese thing might cost 2000 stars.

And I assume like always, one's stars expire over time.

March Madness

The four #1 seeds are not playing like #1 seeds.

NDSU actually played up to Duke in the first half. Duke would have probably lost to UCF in the next round had it not been for showboating by a UCF player who missed an easy layup near the end of the game. That layup would have put the UCF team ahead by five or eight points (I forget) but the spread would have been such I"m not sure Duke would have had enough time to recover.

Last night, Duke barely survived again, playing a #4 seeded team, Virginia Tech.

The big upset last night: #1 UNC fell to a #5 seed and it was not even a close game.  Auburn did everyone a favor by taking out UNC early -- with Duke looking like anything but a #1 seed, it's any team's tournament to win.

The Classic Movie Page

I didn't watch much of the games last night. Maybe five minutes tops. I was watching two movies, back-to-back on TCM (Turner Classic Movies) -- "Dial M For Murder" and "The Key."

I had seen "Dial M For Murder" at least once before, It's a classic Hitchcock movie and it "looks like" a classic Hitchcock movie. But in the big scheme of things: it's a "Columbo" episode -- the TV series. LOL.

The second movie, much less enjoyable, "The Key," with William Holden and Sophia Loren. The ending was very disappointing but after the movie ended, the "host" explained that the producer/writer/director shot two different endings. But one ending would not pass the Hollywood "code" (censors) at the time so the less satisfying ending was used. In fact, the less satisfying ending was probably "more realistic."

Sophia And Family Are In Utah For The Weekend Skiing

This is their third ski trip this season:
  • ten days in New Mexico over the holidays
  • five days in Colorado during spring break
  • four-day weekend in Utah
Arianna and Olivia ski on their own. They took lessons up until late elementary school years and progressed to level 5. Sophia has enrolled in two ski schools this year, age four, and has progressed ot level 4. This trip to Utah she will ski with the family: no ski school.

Sophia and Olivia on their way to Utah (Arianna not in this picture):

Number 1 Reason Why I Love To Blog -- March 30, 2019

I assume folks saw the note yesterday from the daily activity report:

As noted, a reader alerted us to that back on October 17, 2018. That was about five months ago. At the time, I couldn't confirm it nor did any other reader provide any supporting evidence. Re-posting:
A reader asked about the relationship between "Ballantyne" and "Crescent Point Energy," whether one company had sold its interests in Bottineau County to the other.

I replied that I had lost the bubble on that. Neither the blog nor the internet in general offers much help.

My advice: visit the NDIC "well search" site and look at the permits.
In yesterday's daily activity report, the NDIC reported that about 140 wells had been transferred from Crescent Point Energy to Ballantyne.

Spinal Men and Jesus -- The Book Page -- The Word Page

Wow, this is a real treat.

From The Language Instinct: How The Mind Creates Language, Steven Pinker, c. 1994. 

The "mondegreen."

The Scottish ballad, "The Bonnie Earl O'Moray":
Oh, ye hielands and ye lowlands,
Oh, where hae ye been?
They have slain the Earl of Moray,
And laid him on the green.
Scottish children misheard, thinking the last two lines:
"They have slain the Earl of Moray,
And Lady Mondegreen."
And thus the "mondegreen."

Look it up. It's actually there: a misunderstood or misinterpreted word or phrase resulting from a mishearing of the lyrics of a song.

My favorite from the Shocking Blue, "I'm Your Venus." How many of us heard something else and wondered how it ever got on the radio?

By the way, back to the Earl of Moray. From wiki:
Perhaps the most well-known Earl of Moray was James Stewart, 2nd Earl of Moray, the husband of Elizabeth Stewart, 2nd Countess of Moray, who held the earldom jure uxoris (by right of his wife), as he was the subject of a famous ballad, "The Bonny Earl O'Moray". He was also a direct male-line descendant of King Robert II.

I'm Your Venus, Shocking Blue

A Series Of Mondegreens 

The Two Ronnies: