Saturday, March 30, 2019, T+87, Part 1

Beating a dead horse: the jobs data earlier this week -- first time unemployment claims -- I remember what a big deal these numbers were for Barack Obama when they were "good" -- which was seldom. But with the Trump administration, the numbers are pretty much ignored by the mainstream media -- despite some of the best numbers ever -- again, from earlier this week --

First time unemployment claims well below consensus and prior week claims revised strongly downward. Headlines anywhere? Nope.

Wow, this is incredible data being post today:

Jobless claims, link here:

• prior: 221K
• revised down: 216K
• consensus: 225K 
• actual: 211K

Look at that. First, the numbers from the previous week were even better than previously reported. The previous week's numbers were revised down from 221,000 first time unemployment claims to 216,000.

Then, this most recent week. The consensus? First time unemployment claims would jump from 221,000 (actually 216,000) to 225,000 (an increase of 9,000 from the previous week). In fact, the numbers dropped from 221,000 (unrevised and from which the analysts were working) to 211,000. 

That "hit" story on Biden. No one could have missed the most recent #MeToo story. With one well-timed story, Hillary has effectively taken Biden out of the race. Not one thing was new about that story; it did not tell us anything we didn't already know about Biden, but the source! Wow! The "allegation" came from a former Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor in Nevada. And look at the huge play this story got, at The Cut in which the spread looks like it came directly from The New York Times or the magazine insert. It's the banner headline at Drudge and it will be there for several days. Well-played Hillary. I'm still convinced that Hillary will fly in on her broom at a brokered DNC convention.

Tom Steyer: pretty much out of the news. Even googling, it's hard to find "recent news" regarding the billionaire suffering from TDS. Back in January he said he would not run for president. Now, with the release of the Mueller Report he pretty much further marginalized. All that congressional impeachment talk? Pretty much over. Pelosi knew early on the whole thing was bogus and that explains why why put the kabosh on the impeachment talk.


Mueller report: earlier I posted the losers following the release of the Mueller Report. The big winners? Jared and Ivanka. Sure, the SDNY  is still going after President Trump but I don't hear much talk about SDNY going after Jared and Ivanka.

Right, Wrong, Indifferent. Whether you like President Trump or not, one has to admit he's the smartest man in the room willing to call it like it is. Three specifics:

• 100% right on the Fed's mistake raising rates when it did
• predicting the soaring gasoline prices now being report, and knowing the reason -- unlike his predecessor
• seeing the southern border immigration crisis months earlier

He was snookered by North Korea: the best 30-second sound bite -- the North Korean government/Kim do not see their government broken; there's nothing to be fixed; they are simply negotiating for relief on sanctions, or as they probably call them, "trade talks" or trade negotiations; in other words, business as usual.

He gave Saudi Arabia a huge pass on the Khashoggi bone saw execution -- but so did almost everyone else, including the EU and the UN. The most galling part of all this, at least for Trump: Saudi refusing to increase heavy oil exports to the US when most needed. 

Under his watch, the EU became even more dependent on Russia for energy, but that would have happened regardless of who was president.

Polarizing? It takes two to tango. Everyone knows from where the resistance is coming. The Mueller Report now becomes Exhibit A.

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Brexit

The big winners: the Brussels bureaucracy. They now have free rein.

The big losers: the English. The Scots? Hard to say. But definitely the English. On top of everything else, an "election" was stolen.

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Turkey

Burned through a third of its foreign reserves trying to shore up the lira.

Link here.

Another failed state.

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Starbucks Is Changing Their "Rewards" Program

I have never used Starbucks rewards program. That's not entirely true. Years ago I used their reweards program  on a couple of occasions but when they changed to their current "stars" reward system some years ago I quit using my rewards. Seemed too complicated.

For the second time in the past week a Starbucks barista commented on the "huge" number of stars I have and should be using my rewards. Today, the barista told me that again, and told me that Starbucks would be changing their rewards system in mid-April and it would be less generous.

Right now, once one has "x" number of stars -- based on dollar amount -- one can use those stars for any food or drink offered in the cafe regardless of price. So, 275 stars (or whatever the nubmer is) -- when one reaches that number -- one can order any item, from a $2.00 cup of coffee to a $10 fruit and cheese entree, say "free" and the barista clicks on the "free" button on the register and the custome gets that item for free.

Starting in mid-April, the free item will "cost" a proportionate number of stars based on the price of the item. So a cup of coffee might cost 175 stars while that $10 fruit and cheese thing might cost 2000 stars.

And I assume like always, one's stars expire over time.

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March Madness

The four #1 seeds are not playing like #1 seeds.

NDSU actually played up to Duke in the first half. Duke would have probably lost to UCF in the next round had it not been for showboating by a UCF player who missed an easy layup near the end of the game. That layup would have put the UCF team ahead by five or eight points (I forget) but the spread would have been such I"m not sure Duke would have had enough time to recover.

Last night, Duke barely survived again, playing a #4 seeded team, Virginia Tech.

The big upset last night: #1 UNC fell to a #5 seed and it was not even a close game.  Auburn did everyone a favor by taking out UNC early -- with Duke looking like anything but a #1 seed, it's any team's tournament to win.

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The Classic Movie Page

I didn't watch much of the games last night. Maybe five minutes tops. I was watching two movies, back-to-back on TCM (Turner Classic Movies) -- "Dial M For Murder" and "The Key."

I had seen "Dial M For Murder" at least once before, It's a classic Hitchcock movie and it "looks like" a classic Hitchcock movie. But in the big scheme of things: it's a "Columbo" episode -- the TV series. LOL.

The second movie, much less enjoyable, "The Key," with William Holden and Sophia Loren. The ending was very disappointing but after the movie ended, the "host" explained that the producer/writer/director shot two different endings. But one ending would not pass the Hollywood "code" (censors) at the time so the less satisfying ending was used. In fact, the less satisfying ending was probably "more realistic."

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Sophia And Family Are In Utah For The Weekend Skiing

This is their third ski trip this season:

• ten days in New Mexico over the holidays
• five days in Colorado during spring break
• four-day weekend in Utah

Arianna and Olivia ski on their own. They took lessons up until late elementary school years and progressed to level 5. Sophia has enrolled in two ski schools this year, age four, and has progressed ot level 4. This trip to Utah she will ski with the family: no ski school.

Sophia and Olivia on their way to Utah (Arianna not in this picture):