Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Thirteen Charolais Permits Pending For CLR -- September 15, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1264655634

Permit applications likely to be permitted:

  • Operator: CLR
  • Permits: 13
  • Field: Elm Tree (McKenzie)
  • The permits:
    • Charolais South Federal 3-10H2, 269' FSL, 956' FWL; SWSW 10-153-94;
    • Charolais South Federal 4-10H, 258' FSL, 984' FWL; SWSW 10-153-94;
    • Charolais South Federal 5-10H1, 246' FSL, 1011' FWL; SWSW 10-153-94;
    • Charolais South Federal 6-10H, 234' FSL, 1039' FWL; SWSW 10-153-94;
    • Charolais South Federal 7-10H2, 198' FNL, 2381' FWL; NENW 15-153-94;
    • Charolais South Federal 8-10H, 222' FNL, 2296' FWL; NENW 15-153-94;
    • Charolais South Federal 9-10H, 245' FNL, 2411' FWL; NENW 15-153-94;
    • Charolais South Federal 10-10H, 269' FNL, 2425' FWL; NENW 15-153-94;
    • Charolais South Federal 11-10H2, 293' FNL, 2441' FWL; NENW 15-153-94;
    • Charolais South Federal 12-10H, 316' FNL, 2496' FWL; NENW 15-153-94;
    • Charolais South Federal 13-10H, 340' FNL, 2470' FWL; NENW 15-153-94;
    • Charolais South Federal 14-10H2, 364' FNL, 2485' FWL; NENW 15-153-94;
    • Charolais South Federal 15-10H, 388' FNL, 2500'FWL; NENW 15-153-94;

The CLR wells in this area are tracked here: link here.


Director's Cut Posted -- July, 2020, Data


September 16, 2020:

Link here. Renee Jean of The Williston Herald gets the byline but the link is to The Bismarck Tribune. Archived.

North Dakota oil production regains million barrel mark.

North Dakota reported 1.04 million barrels of crude oil per day for July and nearly 2.1 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas production. The state also reported a 91% gas capture rate.

That represents a 16.5% increase in production for both oil and gas, and a 19% increase in gas capture volumes.

But there haven’t been enough new well completions to make these production gains sustainable, North Dakota Director of Mineral Resources Lynn Helms said. 

It takes around 70 new wells per month to sustain production in the range of 1.25 million barrels per day. In May, however, just 12 wells were completed, Helms said. In June, 37 were completed and in July 59.

Original Post

Disclaimer: the usual disclaimer applies. This is done quickly and there will be content and typographical errors. Facts are interspersed with comments and opinions. I often make simple arithmetic errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here.  

Crude oil production:

  • July, 2020: 1,040,388 bopd (preliminary)
  • June, 2020: 893,591(final)
    • increase, month-over-month: 146,797 bopd
    • increase, month-over-month: +16.4%
    • what's that I head about rig counts? and, 
    • wells drilled to depth, and not completed?

Rig count:

  • today: 10 (=1CCUS and +SFI)
  • August: 12
  • July, 2020: 11
  • June, 2020: 12
    • wow, wow, wow, what do you know?
    • rigs decreased by 9% month-over-month, and yet,
    • production of crude oil increased by 16.4% month-over-month; and,
    • natural gas production increased by 16.6%, and yet,
    • the number of rigs actually decreased;
    • not only that, with a greater than 9% decrease in rig count,
    • operators completed 59 wells in July, but only 37 wells in June, or,
    • a 59% increase in number of completed wells, despite,
    • a 9% decrease in the number of rigs
    • we've been told this isn't supposed to happen

Producing wells:

  • July, 2020: 14,406
  • June, 2020: 13,188

Wells completed in each month:

  • July, 2020: 59 (preliminary)
  • June, 2020: 37 (revised)

Wells waiting on completion:

  • July, 2020: 878
  • June, 2020: 899

Wells, inactive:

  • July, 2020: 3,762
  • June, 2020: 4,214

Crude oil, price:

  • Today: $29.25
  • August, 2020: $32.91
  • July, 2020: $31.69
  • June, 2020: $32.35

Natural gas production:

  • July, 2020: 2,297,510 MCF/day (preliminary)
  • June, 2020: 1,971,816 MCF/day (final)
    • increase, month-over-month: 325,694 MF/day
    • increase, month-over-month: 16.6%
    • despite a 16.6% production increase in natural gas, the percent captured actually increased (see below)

Flaring, natural gas capture, percent

  • July, 2020: 91%
  • June, 2020: 89%
  • despite a significant increase in the amount of natural gas produced, the percent of natural gas actually increased

Anyone remember the state's statewide goal for natural gas capture? yup, 91% by November 1, 2020. Looks like (at least for this month), that goal was reached five months early

DUCs and wells off-line for operational reasons are tracked here.

Wells Off Line For Operational Reasons

July, 2020:

  • DUCs: 878
  • inactive well count: 3,762
  • total off line for operational reasons: 4,640

June, 2020:

  • DUCs: 899
  • inactive well count: 4,214
  • total off line for operational reasons: 5,113

May, 2020:

  • DUCs: 962
  • inactive well count: 6,108
  • total off line for operational reasons: 7,070

Apple Presentation Airing -- 12:00 Noon CDT -- September 15, 2020

Disclaimer: done "on the fly." There will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you go to the source.


  • before the presenation began: $116.26;
  • 24 minutes into the presentation: $116.95 
  • at end of presentation: $116.56
  • intra-day high: $118.82
  • typical for an Apple presentation

The Presentation

First impression: too flashy; too much video -- get with highlights, already

The  Watch Series 6

  • blood O2 -- takes 15 seconds
    • will record and save periodic blood O2 during sleep (think sleep apnea)
    • great for asthmatics
    • those with congestive heart failure
    • Covid-19 and interplay with seasonal flu
  • most colorful line-up ever
  • many new colors
  • always-on display
  • watch faces
    • most fundamental, most personal aspect of the  Watch
    • have to see them to believe them
  • wrist band: the solo loop -- one size fits all
  • Family Setup: doesn't require an iPhone -- phenomenal
  •  Watch SE: affordable! $279
  • children can send messages to their parents without an iPhone
  • perfect for entry-level users
  • $199; $279; $399 -- the three price points
    • can be paid over 24 months, interest-free (?); $200/24 = $8 / month (have to confirm)
  • removing the power adapter for the  Watch


More later. Off to pick up Sophia.

SARS-CoV -- 2005 -- Flashback -- September 15, 2020

A reader sent me a ZeroHedge link suggesting that the Covid-19 virus was engineered in a Chinese lab. That may be. Time will tell.

The science is fascinating. I'm waiting for a trusted geneticist to weigh in on this with either a long, long essay or a book, discussing corona viruses, in general, and then all the research that has gone one with regard to coronavirus.

But the "definitive" story can't be published for several years; anything published now is way too soon.

I suppose a essay on coronavirus research could be published now, but the Wuhan flu -- still too early to really know.

I "track" the story at this link, on the sidebar at the right, at the very bottom (although I occasionally modify the sorting of links at the sidebar). 

Of the many articles I've come across, this one continues to be the most fascinating: Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread. Link here

It's too bad that "chloroquine" has become politicized. 

I think a lot of folks are under the impression that regardless of whether this virus was engineered in a lab or not, research in this area is relatively new. This family of viruses has been around "forever" and research has been going on in this area for many decades. 

Remember this? Posted back on May 10, 2020:

By the way, corona virus has an interesting connection to North Dakota:

Coronaviruses were first discovered in the 1930s when an acute respiratory infection of domesticated chickens was shown to be caused by infectious bronchitis virus (IBV). Arthur Schalk and M. C. Hawn described in 1931 a new respiratory infection of chickens in North Dakota.

So, again, back to the "chloroquine" article. 

First, coronavirus is not a rare bug. It's part of the largest class of viruses.

Second, that study was published by a most respected agency: the NIH.

Third, that study was published back in 2005. One has to assume the backstory to this research extended back at least ten years, which would take it to 1995. Even if articles had not been published, people "in the know" would have been quite aware of coronavirus.

More later.

Other Studies

Gene sequence:

Blood types, ACE2:

Tech 101 -- September 15, 2020

 I am having a blast with Sophia and distance learning. Wow, I am blown away by the technology. 

Everyday we log into her account: WebEx, SeeSaw, Epic, and so on. I used to type in the URL each day -- it was cumbersome -- but I didn't know how to bookmark it on her iPad. Then Sophia taught me how to use the QR code. Wow, it's lightning fast. I bring up the QR code on my iPhone -- it was sent to me by her teacher, and then Sophia takes her iPad and takes a photo of it -- she doesn't even bother getting the full QR code in the frame -- "close enough" apparently works.

Due to a medical appointment she had, I went over to her house yesterday, walked in at 2:16 p.m. The "synchronous" time was scheduled for 2:15. I had my phone out, the QR code up, and Sophia took a photo of it, and she was "in class" at before 2:17. It was that fast. 

From wiki:

A QR code (abbreviated from Quick Response code) is a type of matrix barcode (or two-dimensional barcode) first designed in 1994 for the automotive industry in Japan. 
A barcode is a machine-readable optical label that contains information about the item to which it is attached. 
In practice, QR codes often contain data for a locator, identifier, or tracker that points to a website or application. 
A QR code uses four standardized encoding modes (numeric, alphanumeric, byte/binary, and kanji) to store data efficiently; extensions may also be used.
The Quick Response system became popular outside the automotive industry due to its fast readability and greater storage capacity compared to standard UPC barcodes. Applications include product tracking, item identification, time tracking, document management, and general marketing. 
A QR code consists of black squares arranged in a square grid on a white background, which can be read by an imaging device such as a camera, and processed using Reed–Solomon error correction until the image can be appropriately interpreted. The required data is then extracted from patterns that are present in both horizontal and vertical components of the image.

All that in a split-second. Or a split nano-second.

Shout Out To Alba Web Designs, LLC

Amazon is so incredibly dependable that, with rare exceptions, I no longer track deliveries. Knock on wood, but I have never "lost" an order. I recently ordered a small item from Alba Web Designs, LLC. The item had not arrived at its scheduled time, about two after submitting the order.

At three weeks, the item had still not arrived. I e-mailed the vendor, and surprise-surprise, "Brian" responded immediately. He said the item has been lost in transit, and asked if I wanted to "cancel," or "re-send." I said to simply re-send."

I couldn't believe it. The order showed up three days later after that chat to "re-send."

That was about a week ago.

Yesterday, I received a "duplicate" of the same order. So, obviously, the order I received a week ago was the original order, having been "lost in transit," now showed up.

And then the "replacement" item showed up yesterday. 

I'm impressed. 

Notes From All Over -- Pre-Market -- September 15, 2020

First things first: nice human interest story coming out of Divide County, North Dakota. Cool pictures; cool story. For those not familiar with geography of North Dakota: Divide County is pretty remote, even for North Dakota.

DIVIDE COUNTY, N.D. (KFYR) - Around 60 farmers in Divide County put their own harvesting on hold to cut 1,000 acres for a neighbor who suffered a heart attack after his combine caught fire last week.

Lane Unhjem was in the middle of harvesting when he went into cardiac arrest near Crosby, North Dakota.

Neighbors, friends, and family brought 11 combines, 6 grain carts, and 15 semis to get Unhjem’s Durum Wheat and Canola in the bin. When they heard about Unhjem’s situation last week, they immediately started coordinating an effort to help him out.

“I talked to a couple of farmers, got their equipment, and then other people just started calling and we had equipment offered from all over the place in the county, and their workers to go with it,” said family friend, Jenna Binde.

Earnings, 3Q20: earnings are increasing overall -- just not technology -- and 4Q20 should be even better. 

Tech: you will have to connect the dots. I don't have time. But think about this when thinking about the "cloud." One year ago, Sophia submitted no videos to the cloud. With distance learning, she is submitting upwards of three videos every day to her teachers. She's a first grader. Extrapolate. This is not rocket science.

Big day today:

  • price of oil reverses
  • US equity markets surging
  • Apple special event later today
  • Director's Cut scheduled to be released later today

OPEC cuts demand forecast. Again. Link here. I think if I look hard enough I might be able to find a "dog-bites-man" story.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Best hour on CNBC: 8:00 to 9:00 a.m. CDT -- low-energy banter between Jim Cramer and another guy. 

Nancy: Jim Cramer is interviewing Nancy Pelosi -- volume is muted -- wow, her hair looks nice. I doubt Jim mentioned that as a lead-in. It would have been interesting to see her reaction! LOL.

Opening bell:

  • S&P 500: up 28 points
  • Dow: up 184 points;
  • NASDAQ: up 151 points;
  • AAPL: up $2.52 (about $10/share pre-split); trading at $117;
  • TSLA: up almost 5% up $20; trading at $440;
  • JNJ: could hit $150 today
  • IMUX: down 8 cents; trading at $18.25
  • T: same ol', same ol' -- up 8 cents; $29.21
  • GBX: up 1.58%; trading at $29
  • WMT: up 54 cents; trading at $137.86
  • BRK-B: up a dollar; trading at $221

Tommy: his 15 minutes of fame in The Washington Post; looks like the WP is starting to put together the rationale for tearing down the wall under a Harris administration.

Dividends: I can't recall if I previously posted this. Link to SeekingAlpha. Archived.

Time to:

  • check e-mail;
  • more coffee;

Fast And Furious -- Fifteen Minutes -- Nothing About The Bakken -- September 15, 2020

Iowa: in play. President Trump announces that states -- i.e., Iowa -- will be allowed to put ... well, to make sure I don't mis-state this, cut and paste:

President Donald Trump promised to allow higher-ethanol gasoline to be distributed using existing filling station pumps, a move designed to bolster support among corn farmers and biofuel producers in Iowa and other Midwestern swing states.

Amazon: announces it will hire 100,000 more employees. 

Market: after "correction" last Tuesday, September 8, 2020, I said I was not going to look at the market until Tuesday, September 15, 2020, the day of the Apple event. 

That would be today. I was pretty sure the market would do quite well in light of the Apple event. I also said that was going to be she shortest "correction" on record. That also turned out to be very, very correct. Market has come back and looks to have a good day today. 
I also said that the the "correction" last week occurred the very day AstraZeneca announced a pause in its vaccine-testing program due to an adverse event reported in one patient who had a serious pre-existing neurological condition. The market reversed, surged, on the day that AstraZeneca announced it had resumed its testing program. Coincidences? I think not. 
Granted, there was some other reasons: mostly merger announcements, but we get merger announcements all the time. Watching CNBC now. Network continues to ignore state of economy in their own backyard, NYC.

But. Apparently "Feds" and the NIH are "very concerned about the "serious side effect" in the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine trial. AstraZeneca's response subdued. Can you say Nikola?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Speaking of Nikola: fake video quite remarkable.

Boom? US railroad traffic posts first annual jump since the start of 2020. Link here

Brent just spiked? Over at Twitter. All the way to $40.25, Brent.

Drones: Walmart has teamed up with Flytex. Link to oilprice. The article looks like a "re-print" of an earlier article from a different source, but the Walmart-Flytex hook-up seems new. See this post from August 31, 2020 with new alliances added:

  • Wing Aviation: Alphabet / Google (Bloomberg says Wing Aviation, LLC, was the first to get FAA approval for these drones; Walgreens - Fedex, one town in Virginia; pilot program (or should we say, "pilotless pilot program";
  • UPS Flight Forward (link here): CVS hook-up to operate delivery drones at university, hospital and corporate campuses;
  • Prime Air: Amazon; goal -- 30-minute delivery (yes, I hate waiting all day for the gel pens I ordered this morning for Sophia; ordered at 0930; will arrive sometime later today;
  • Walmart-Flytex: testing phase, Lafayetteville, North Carolina 
  • Uber: announced food-delivery drones for next year (2021); test program in San Diego;

The Sports Page

I watched a few minutes of the two NFL games last night, mostly end of 2nd quarter, beginning of third quarter of each game. I think with "fake sound track" folks forget these stadiums are empty. Without the fans, these games seem to be nothing more than televised scrimmages. Hard to take seriously. The ESPN announcers were atrocious. I've already forgotten the lineup. Having said that, big kudos to the players that actually willing to play despite Covid-19.

How desperate is the NFL for viewers? Giving it away for free. From Yahoo!Sports:

Get the Yahoo Sports app and watch live local & primetime NFL games for free on your phone or tablet, all season long. Stream live NBA games with the NBA League Pass free preview windows throughout the season and watch pro league soccer games, too.

It’s the fastest way to access the latest sports scores, stats and highlights on your favorite teams and leagues.  With NBA, NFL, NHL, NCAA, MLB, MLS and more, Yahoo Sports keeps you updated on all the football, basketball, baseball, and soccer action happening right now.

Check out the brand-new Sportsbook tab, with access to betting odds, expert analysis, editorial content and video. Watch our original content and play free Fantasy Slate contests to win real cash, right inside your app.

Only One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- September 15, 2020

Anticipation: Apple event at 12:00 noon CDT today.

Anticipation: Director's Cut scheduled to be released at 3:00 p.m. CDT today.

OXY: Ecopetrol, Colombia's state-held oil firm, with strategic alliance with OXY to develop acreage in the Permian, plans to have drilled as many as 100 wells in the Permian by the end of 2021. Link here

OPEC basket, link here: continues slide, trading at $38.96.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1264655634

One wellscoming off confidential list -- Tuesday, September 15, 2020: 120 for the month; 191 for the quarter, 637 for the year

  • 37350, drl/drl, WPX, Fast Dog 7-6HS, Eagle Nest,

RBN Energy: Permian oil and gas growth stalls as new pipes come online, altering market dynamics.

A combination of new-pipeline development, lower capex by producers, production shut-ins, and changing expectations for future production has significantly altered crude oil and natural gas market fundamentals in the all-important Permian Basin. Just over a year ago, Permian production was rising steadily and oil and gas pipelines out of West Texas were running at or near full capacity. Since then, nearly 2.2 MMb/d of incremental crude takeaway capacity has come online, and production dropped by about 700 Mb/d before rebounding somewhat in recent weeks. As for gas, some takeaway constraints remain, but they are limited to when pipelines are offline for maintenance, and will be alleviated when new pipelines start operating in 2021. Today, we discuss the recent downs and ups in Permian production, takeaway capacity additions, and the resulting impacts on markets and market participants.

As 2019 was drawing to a close nine months ago, Permian producers knew that big changes would be coming in 2020. But they had no idea what they were in for. They expected steady increases in crude oil and natural gas production, driven by what was then $62/bbl West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and by rising demand for gas from a slew of new liquefaction/LNG export facilities along the Gulf Coast. Producers also were confident that a trio of new crude pipelines from West Texas to the Corpus Christi area — Cactus II, EPIC Crude, and Gray Oak — would ease takeaway constraints out of the Permian, and that while it would take longer, gas-takeaway constraints would be alleviated too as new Permian-to-Gulf Coast pipelines started up in 2020 and 2021.