Locator: 44395TRUMP.
Trump 2.0 is tracked here.
Wiki.
Wow, talk about lightning in a bottle.
Does that department -- the Department of Commerce -- do anything except track data?
Friday, November 22, 2024
Labor Secretary Nominee -- Lori Chavez-Deremer
It's Scott Bessent -- Trump -- Treasury Secretary -- November 22, 2024
Locator: 44393TRUMP.
Still a few more positions to be filled, but this was the big one everyone was waiting for. Gaetz has withdrawn. Tulsi Gabbard and RFK, Jr., Hegspeth, maybe Oz, are unlikely to be confirmed by US Senate. Otherwise, Trump's cabinet and other big names appear set.
Trump 2.0 is tracked here.
Breaking news -- according to Carl Q over at Bluesky.
Wiki.
Scott K. H. Bessent, 62 years old, born 1962, is an American investor and hedge fund manager.
He is the founder of Key Square Group, a global macro investment firm.In November 2024, after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, Reuters reported that Bessent was being considered for the position of Treasury Secretary by the incoming Trump administration.
Scott K. H. Bessent was born in Conway, South Carolina, to Barbara (née McLeod) and Homer Gaston Bessent Jr. His father was a realtor.
He graduated from Yale University in 1984 with a Bachelor of Arts in political science. While at Yale, Bessent wrote and was editor for The Yale Daily News, was president of Wolf's Head, one of Yale's "Big Three" senior societies, and treasurer for the class of 1984. He was chairman of the 1984 Yale Alumni Fund and was assistant to the director of athletics.
Why I Never Tire Of Blogging -- Tech: Stock Market, This Past Week -- MOJO Is Pivoting From Hardware To Software --- November 22, 2024
Locator: 44392TECH.
From the linked article:
Links:
From Nvidia blades to software (SNOW, Mavenir, Crowdstrike, etc).
From the linked article:
Saudi Aramco's digital arm is in talks to take a significant minority stake in Mavenir, in a deal that is likely to value the U.S. telecommunications software maker at about $3 billion.
Aramco Digital is in talks to invest about $1 billion in Mavenir and a deal is likely to be signed before the end of the year, the sources said, cautioning that a transaction is not guaranteed.
Mavenir is working with investment bank Evercore on its talks with Aramco Digital, the sources said, requesting anonymity as the discussions are confidential.
The deal by Aramco Digital, the wholly-owned technology subsidiary of the oil giant, would be its first major transaction in the telecommunications industry as part of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 plan, which focuses on technological advancements and economic diversification.
Aramco and Evercore did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Mavenir declined to comment.
The telecom equipment industry, which has long been dominated by vendors such as Sweden's Ericsson, Finland's Nokia and China's Huawei, is one of the few critical areas where U.S. companies do not have a significant presence.
Richardson, Texas-based Mavenir is a pioneer in a technology called Open Radio Access Network (Open RAN) that promises to radically cut costs for telecom operators building a mobile network. It uses cloud-based software and allows use of gear from many suppliers instead of relying on a handful of companies.
Mavenir
Links:
- headquartered, where else but ... wait for it ... Texas ... north of Dallas ... specifically, Richardson, Texas. Just up the street from us .... and most importantly, right down the street from a huge technology university, University of Texas, Dallas -- UTD -- holy mackerel.
Mavenir Systems, Inc. is an American telecommunications software company, created in 2017 as a result of a three-way merger of existing companies and technologies, that develops and supplies cloud-native software to the communications service provider (CSP) market.
The company is headquartered in Richardson, Texas, US, and has offices in multiple countries such as India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Romania, Germany, and the UK. Mavenir also has Centres of Excellence around the world, including in Bangalore and Brno, with a global employee headcount of over 5000. The company serves more than 250 Communications Service Providers in over 120 countries.
And then this:
Mavenir has a complex corporate history as a result of successive acquisitions and spin-offs. The main historical predecessors are:
- Xura, which was composed of pieces of Comverse, Inc.,
- Acision, and a number of other acquired companies.
- Comverse, Inc derived from Comverse Technology, was active in traditional value-added services (VAS), digital cloud services, Unified Communications (VoIP & UC), and a suite of evolved communication services.
- Acision was a privately held secure mobile messaging and engagement services firm.
- These entities were combined in 2015 to form Xura, which focused on two core product areas: digital communications services and converged communications (traditional and IP).
- An older entity with a similar name, Mavenir Systems, initially a company focused on transition from 3G to 4G with IMS products and solutions, founded in 2006. It acquired Airwide Solutions, Stoke and Ulticom and In 2013, the company went public on NYSE with MVNR ticker symbol. The company was acquired by Mitel Networks Corporation in 2015 to create Mitel Mobility.
How it came together:
- Ranzure Networks, a startup focused on developing 5G cloud-based radio access network technology.
- In mid-2016, Xura was acquired by affiliates of Siris Capital Group in a deal that valued the company at approximately $643 million.
- On 19 December 2016, affiliates of Xura agreed to acquire Mitel Mobility, for $385 million, and Ranzure Networks Inc., for an undisclosed sum.
The maps:
Week 46: November 17, 2024 -- November 23, 2024
lLocator: 44391TOPSTORIES.
Trump appointees tracked here.
- Matt Gaetz withdraws his name from nomination; Trump replaces Gaetz with former Florida attorney general.
- with At secretary pick, completes cabinet list
From Geoff Simon:
***************************
Top story of the week:
- Donald Trump continues to "name" his cabinet members.
Top international non-energy story:
- the de-industrialization of Germany
- the end of the EV fad, 2024
- Saudi Arabia - Mavenir investment
Top international energy story:
- almost the entire EU has now banned Russian natural gas;
- Iran oil is regularly re-branded as Malaysian oil;
Top national non-energy story:
- US financial market continues to reach new highs
- US equities, pivoting from hardware (blades) to software (SNOW, Mavenir)
Top national energy story:
- MRO COP deal closes
- it will never happen, but Trump talks about "bringing back" the Keystone XL
Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.
The market in a nutshell: another nice week -
At The Close -- November 22, 2024
Locator: 44390B.
Not even mentioned today? Sixty-one years ago, today:
The market:
Dow record close.
NASDAQ closes at 19,003.
*****************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $71.24.
Active rigs: 38.
Four new permits, #41365 - #41368, inclusive.
- Operators: Hunt (3); KODA Resources
- Fields: Ross (Mountrail); Daneville (Divide County)
- Comments:
- KODA Resources has a permit for a Bock well, NWNW 24-161-102, to be sited 483 FNL and 619 FWL;
- Hunt Oil has permits for a State A well and two State C wells, SWSW 3-156-90, to be sited 357 FSL and at three locations, 393, 423, and 483 FWL.
Eleven permits renewed:
- CLR: four
- Silver Hill Energy Operating: three
- Whiting: two
- Oasis: one
- BR: one
Chord Energy -- Oasis Dahl Federal -- Five Well Pad With Parent Well Off-Line -- November 22, 2024
Locator: 44389B.
The well of interest:
- 21266, 494, A/AL, Oasis, Dahl E Federal 15-11H, Baker, t5/23; cum 251K 9/24; recent production, nothing in the file report to explain the reason for only one day of production in September, 2024, maps provide no obvious answer:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 9-2024 | 1 | 96 | 125 | 72 | 95 | 86 | 9 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2024 | 31 | 3252 | 3245 | 2296 | 3166 | 3148 | 18 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2024 | 29 | 1984 | 1976 | 1703 | 1598 | 1526 | 72 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2024 | 29 | 2615 | 2670 | 2065 | 1956 | 1664 | 292 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2024 | 31 | 3960 | 3948 | 2719 | 3105 | 3052 | 53 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2024 | 28 | 2747 | 2774 | 2090 | 374 | 330 | 44 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 31 | 3135 | 3110 | 2492 | 60 | 1 | 59 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 29 | 2818 | 2799 | 2737 | 1872 | 0 | 1872 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2024 | 31 | 2602 | 2603 | 2640 | 1539 | 394 | 1145 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2023 | 31 | 3139 | 3144 | 3043 | 2183 | 1360 | 823 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 30 | 4151 | 4149 | 4981 | 3800 | 3388 | 412 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 31 | 5875 | 5876 | 6215 | 5737 | 5638 | 99 |
The five-well pad:
- 38770, F/A, Oasis, Dahl E Federal 5301 13-14 2B, Baker, t1/12; cum 223K 9/24;
- 21266, 494, Oasis, Dahl E Federal 15-11H, Baker, t5/23; cum 251K 9/24; off line, September, 2024
- 38771, F/A, Oasis, Dahl E Federal 5301 13-14 3B, Baker, t5/23; cum 268K 9/24;
- 38772, F/A, Oasis, Dahl E Federal 5301 13-14 4B, Baker, t5/23; cum 270K 9/24;
- 38773, F/A, Oasis, Dahl E Federal 5301 13-14 5B, Baker, t5/23; cum 251K 9/24;
The maps:
Nvidia's CUDA: Update --- November 22, 2024
Locator: 44388TECH.
Updates
November 22, 2024: Nvidia's CUDA: wiki.
November 22, 2024: Nvidia rival to go public soon. Link here. Cerebras Systems.
Original Post
Re-posting: How Nvidia Plans To Remain In The Lead — Barron’s — Happy Thanksgiving Day — 2023
Locator: 46139NVDA.
Nvidia (NVDA)’s earnings were impressive but still not enough to push the stock higher. [Comment: incorrect analysis.]
However, the company did enough to show that rivals such as Advanced Micro Devices and Intel have a long way to go to catch up with regard to artificial-intelligence chips.
Nvidia executives didn’t quite dismiss the competition in the earnings call following its October-quarter results, but they stressed their position as the largest player for AI chips.
Their key to maintaining that looks to be a faster pace of technology development, with new releases now set to come every year instead of every two years.
“There is a fundamental reason why we accelerate our execution…because it fundamentally drives down cost,” said Chief Executive Jensen Huang on the call.
More from the link:That pace could be hard for AMD and Intel to match. Nvidia is set to maintain a market share of more than 85% in generative AI accelerator chips next year, according to Raymond James analyst.
Pajjuri noted that some customers might pause their spending with Nvidia to wait for the new B100 chips, set for mass production in the second half of next year.
However, that also means customers might hold off on buying AMD’s MI300 AI chip in the meantime, or Intel’s Gaudi 3, which is due next year.
Nvidia’s data center revenue is now projected to hit $65 billion in the fiscal year ending January 2025, more than double the projected combined data-center sales of Intel and AMD for about the same period.
“Despite a growing list of competitors, Nvidia remains the place to train one’s generative AI algorithms largely as a result of the CUDA [software] platform that Nvidia has spent almost 20 years building,” wrote independent analyst Richard Windsor, who publishes Radio Free Mobile.
My hunch: a year from now, some of us will have gone from the “magnificent seven” to the “fantastic four” : AAPL, TSM. NVDA, and ASML.
Re-Posting: Traditional IRA Vs Roth -- May 28, 2024
Locator: 44386IRA.
Locator: 47976IRA.
Updates
November 22, 2024: wow, wow, wow. When considering a conversion (traditional IRA to Roth IRA) a financial advisor should ask you if you plan to significantly dip into your existing traditional IRA over the next ten years. See next note. This is a "philosophical / spousal" decision as much as a financial advisor's bean-counting decision.
November 22, 2024: many folks have a traditional IRA because the original "IRA" available was only the "traditional" IRA. It was only later that the Roth IRA became available.
A lot of folks are now considering converting their traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs, which for some/many/most/all is highly recommended. And some folks will feel like chumps if they don't do the conversion. But remember, in addition to the taxes upfront, this has become a cottage industry. A lot of banks and money managers will encourage folks to make conversion, looking at the fees they (money managers) will make providing you this service.
My cup is always half full. A conversion is only a small piece of one's entire financial universe. More important than a conversion is how one uses the cash from an RMD. I'm not happy with RMDs, but I can guarantee you, my wife is thrilled with RMDs. LOL.
November 22, 2024:
Asking AI: when a Roth conversions make sense size of portfolio when to convert --
Original Post
Locator: 47976IRA.
This is not an investment site. I have had no formal training in "money matters" of any sort. The following is simply how I see things and not advice or recommendations for anyone else. It is advice for my extended family members. I assume there will be content errors, and typographical errors. If something seems wrong, it probably is wrong. If this is important to you, even though it's not meant for you, go to the source. Don't take my advice.
So, awhile back, I wrote, with regard whether to fund a traditional IRA or a Roth IRA if given the opportunity / choice:
Traditional IRA or Roth IRA:
- the only "good" thing that a traditional IRA provides that a Roth IRA does not: a very, very minor tax break
- the tax break makes you feel good
- in fact, the tax break the traditional IRA provides is nothing -- absolutely nothing -- compared to the tax advantages of the Roth IRA
- if
you really, really want that tax break that a traditional IRA provides,
invest only in a Roth IRA but calculate the taxes you would save by
investing in a traditional IRA: I will pay you that amount of savings in
cash when you file your taxes (this was written for one extended family
member and applied only to that one extended family member)
- note: in 2033, RMDs required starting at age 75.
- Roth IRAs: RMDs never required.
I've said that for years. My original IRA was a traditional IRA -- Roth IRAs did not exist. When Roth IRAs came along, the general advice, it seemed, was to open a traditional IRA, not a Roth IRA. Somewhere along the line, to "diversify," I opened a Roth IRA but kept the traditional IRAs. Never converted.
But I continued to believe that the Roth IRA was "head and shoulders" better than a traditional IRA. In my mind, there was no comparison, no question which was better. The arguments that sophisticated financial advisors made -- that the traditional IRA was superior -- were inherently inconsistent -- their reasoning made no sense -- so believe me, take the Roth IRA, forget about the traditional IRA.
And guess what? I'm so correct, there's a small cottage industry in the US now where financial advisors help you convert your traditional IRA to Roth IRAs. That's how good Roth IRAs are. Everyone now realizes how incredibly awful the traditional IRA is compared to the Roth IRA.
How bad is it?
From CNBC today:
It's not a slam dunk only because of the fees and taxes involved to make the conversion. It still irks me when I see financial advice columnists advising folks to open a traditional IRA, rather than a Roth IRA.
Cramer's First Hour, Part 2 -- November 22, 2024
Locator: 44385CRAMER.
Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.
Drinking game bingo: “hyperscalars” — CNBC — 11:33 a.m. CST.
This is serious: SiriusXM loses NY suit. Link here. Subscription cancellation.
WMT vs TGT: past six months, the definition of divergence --
**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
- If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
- Longer version here.
Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- November 22, 2024
Locator: 44384CRAMER.
Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.
Cramer: astounded by the amount of money "flowing into this market." And, then take a look at this: MMFs.
Musk: the cover of Time and the cover of The Economist, both featured Elon Musk, not the president-elect.
EVs: not a good week for EVs.
Susan Stroud: link here. Today, it's North Dakota soybeans. Website.
OKLO: chart of the day. Energy Secretary-select sits on the OKLO board.
**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
- If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
- Longer version here.
Not A Good Week For EVs -- Will "2024" Go Down As The Year EVs Died? Is This The Year The Music Died? November 22, 2024
Locator: 44383EVS.
Updates
November 24, 2024: the Northvolt collapse -- link to The WSJ. The lede:
Northvolt was one of the world’s most valuable battery startups. Now it has run out of charge.
Over the past week, the Swedish company filed for bankruptcy in the U.S. and said its co-founder was stepping down as chief executive, after a turbulent year of production problems and job cuts.
The move marks a stark change in fortunes for a company that was once vaunted as Europe’s best hope for competing with China’s dominant battery makers. Northvolt’s collapse also underscores the difficulty Western companies face in establishing a foothold in the industry.
Northvolt has struggled with a challenging market for electric vehicles, difficulties scaling up and management missteps, departing chief executive Peter Carlsson said Friday. Filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy allows the loss-making company to access new sources of financing while it restructures.
“We’ve now stabilized, we’re getting predictable, we’re delivering,” said Carlsson, who remains on the company’s board. “You just need to have the time to get it there.”
Founded by Carlsson and another former Tesla executive in 2016, Northvolt’s goal was to become a reliable European source of battery cells to help power the region’s transition to EVs. Governments and investors were eager to support a homegrown player that could reduce the West’s reliance on China.
November 24, 2024: the Northvolt collapse countdown started with BWM pulling the plug. Link here. Also, link here. In June, 2024, BMW canceled a multi-billion order. Initially this story was behind a Bloomberg payway, but is now available everywhere.
**************************
Everything Below -- Archived
Everything Below -- Archived
Critically important: one needs to separate the EV market from the EV-battery market.
The EV market and EV battery market have diverged. Diverged.
I think some folks are forgetting this.
But, the grid (think AI / data mining / crypto) is going to need obscene amounts of new electricity. And storage.
Utilities have been buying "storage" as fast as they can raise cash to do so. That will continue. Next, those industries that rely on electricity won't trust the grid: they will build their own power plants and they will -- except possible nuclear power plants -- will make batteries part and parcel of their factories to insure uninterrupted power supply when the grid occasionally -- but ultimately -- fails. From the very beginning, I've always considered Tesla a battery company. I was half-right. Tesla is a battery company and a software company.
The fact that Northvolt declared bankruptcy is a bigger story than most folks realize. I would argue that investors no longer see the EU as a growth story: it's not going see the amount of electricity demand that will be seen in the US.
Updates
November 22, 2024: will "2024" go down as the year that the EV fad died? The IEA is predicting a glut of oil next summer and the price of gasoline will plummet. So, we have a one-two punch. Consumers don't want to buy tethered vehicles, and the price of gasoline will continue to fall once Trump assumes office.
November 22, 2024, Northvolt EU EV declaring bankruptcy: link here and here, The NYT. And there's more: link here. Hard to believe, the blog first noted this company a little over a year ago: link here. Lasted almost as long as Matt Gaetz. LOL.
Original Post
DigitalTrends: link here.
Northvolt EU EV declaring bankruptcy: link here and here, The NYT.
Jeep: prices have gone through the roof; buyers are bailing; dealers are furious; how not to run a auto manufacturing business. Link here.
Auto worker wipeout, MSN: link here. Why car companies are cutting thousands of jobs.
Cheap EVs: google hertz's tesla fire sales continue -- full article here --
EVs: by now, we should be further along. Link here.
“Issues like charging infrastructure, high upfront costs, and potential lifestyle disruptions continue to deter many from making the transition,” Accenture says.
Meanwhile, charging infrastucture has continued to expand this year in the U.S., led by networks such as ChargePoint, Tesla’s SuperCharger, and Electrify America.
Wholesalers such as Costco and Walmart are adding EV-charging capacity. But the race to make EVs more affordable is facing hurdles now that Chinese-made electric vehicles face stiff tariffs in both Europe and America. [And the article doesn't even mention EV credits are likely to go away under Trump.]
Trump to end EV credits?
Nine Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over The Weekend -- November 22, 2024
Locator: 44381B.
NFL: The Cleveland Browns (2 - 8) shock the Pittsburg Steelers (8 - 2).
S&P 500: MRO out. Texas Pacific Land will joint S&P 500. Link here.
US Senate: Pennsylvania -- GOP upsets Dems. David McCormick defeats Bob Casey in Pennsylvania. The New York Times reporting was not only lacking, but incredibly unbalanced in its reporting. Fun to read and spotting the writer's spin.
EVs: US -- October, 2024. Painful.
Road to Germany: Brutal.
******************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $69.46.
Sunday, November 24, 2024: 38 for the month; 88 for the quarter, 615 for the year
- 40662, conf, CLR, Sandhill 4-24H,
- 40352, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 5H,
- 40105, conf, Enerplus, Devils Canyon 147-97-17-20-6H,
- 40029, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 4H,
- 40028, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 3H,
- 37937, conf, BR, Parrish 4B MBH,
Saturday, November 23, 2024: 32 for the month; 92 for the quarter, 607 for the year
- 40586, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Harris Federal 2-31H,
- 40675, conf, CLR, Carpenter 7-13HSL,
- 40585, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Harris Federal 5-31H,
RBN Energy: efforts to restock SPR complicated b life-extension program.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories have been climbing over the past year as the Department of Energy (DOE) advances plans to replenish it following the record 180-MMbbl drawdown after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But DOE officials have said its refilling efforts are complicated by upgrades at three of the four SPR storage sites. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the scope of these “life-extension” projects, the completion timetable, and how it might drag out restocking efforts.
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