The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 11/22/24

Friday, November 22, 2024

Nvidia's CUDA: Update --- November 22, 2024

Updates

November 22, 2024: Nvidia's CUDA: wiki.

November 22, 2024: Nvidia rival to go public soon. Link here. Cerebras Systems.

Original Post

Re-posting: How Nvidia Plans To Remain In The Lead — Barron’s — Happy Thanksgiving Day — 2023

Locator: 46139NVDA.

Link here.

Nvidia (NVDA)’s earnings were impressive but still not enough to push the stock higher. [Comment: incorrect analysis.]

However, the company did enough to show that rivals such as Advanced Micro Devices and Intel have a long way to go to catch up with regard to artificial-intelligence chips.

Nvidia executives didn’t quite dismiss the competition in the earnings call following its October-quarter results, but they stressed their position as the largest player for AI chips.

Their key to maintaining that looks to be a faster pace of technology development, with new releases now set to come every year instead of every two years.

“There is a fundamental reason why we accelerate our execution…because it fundamentally drives down cost,” said Chief Executive Jensen Huang on the call.

That pace could be hard for AMD and Intel to match. Nvidia is set to maintain a market share of more than 85% in generative AI accelerator chips next year, according to Raymond James analyst.

Back To The Bakken -- MDU -- Novmeber 22, 2024

MDU: link here.

Re-Posting: Traditional IRA Vs Roth -- May 28, 2024

Locator: 44386IRA.
Locator: 47976IRA.

Updates

November 22, 2024: wow, wow, wow. When considering a conversion (traditional IRA to Roth IRA) a financial advisor should ask you if you plan to significantly dip into your existing traditional IRA over the next ten years. See next note. This is a "philosophical / spousal" decision as much as a financial advisor's bean-counting decision.

November 22, 2024: many folks have a traditional IRA because the original "IRA" available was only the "traditional" IRA. It was only later that the Roth IRA became available.

A lot of folks are now considering converting their traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs, which for some/many/most/all is highly recommended. And some folks will feel like chumps if they don't do the conversion. But remember, in addition to the taxes upfront, this has become a cottage industry. A lot of banks and money managers will encourage folks to make conversion, looking at the fees they (money managers) will make providing you this service.
My cup is always half full. A conversion is only a small piece of one's entire financial universe. More important than a conversion is how one uses the cash from an RMD. I'm not happy with RMDs, but I can guarantee you, my wife is thrilled with RMDs. LOL.

November 22, 2024:

Asking AI: when a Roth conversions make sense size of portfolio when to convert --

Original Post

Locator: 47976IRA.

This is not an investment site. I have had no formal training in "money matters" of any sort. The following is simply how I see things and not advice or recommendations for anyone else. It is advice for my extended family members. I assume there will be content errors, and typographical errors. If something seems wrong, it probably is wrong. If this is important to you, even though it's not meant for you, go to the source. Don't take my advice.

So, awhile back, I wrote, with regard whether to fund a traditional IRA or a Roth IRA if given the opportunity / choice:

Traditional IRA or Roth IRA:

the only "good" thing that a traditional IRA provides that a Roth IRA does not: a very, very minor tax break
the tax break makes you feel good
in fact, the tax break the traditional IRA provides is nothing -- absolutely nothing -- compared to the tax advantages of the Roth IRA
if you really, really want that tax break that a traditional IRA provides, invest only in a Roth IRA but calculate the taxes you would save by investing in a traditional IRA: I will pay you that amount of savings in cash when you file your taxes (this was written for one extended family member and applied only to that one extended family member)
note: in 2033, RMDs required starting at age 75.
Roth IRAs: RMDs never required.

I've said that for years. My original IRA was a traditional IRA -- Roth IRAs did not exist. When Roth IRAs came along, the general advice, it seemed, was to open a traditional IRA, not a Roth IRA. Somewhere along the line, to "diversify," I opened a Roth IRA but kept the traditional IRAs. Never converted.

But I continued to believe that the Roth IRA was "head and shoulders" better than a traditional IRA. In my mind, there was no comparison, no question which was better. The arguments that sophisticated financial advisors made -- that the traditional IRA was superior -- were inherently inconsistent -- their reasoning made no sense -- so believe me, take the Roth IRA, forget about the traditional IRA.

And guess what? I'm so correct, there's a small cottage industry in the US now where financial advisors help you convert your traditional IRA to Roth IRAs. That's how good Roth IRAs are. Everyone now realizes how incredibly awful the traditional IRA is compared to the Roth IRA.

How bad is it?

From CNBC today:

It's not a slam dunk only because of the fees and taxes involved to make the conversion.

It still irks me when I see financial advice columnists advising folks to open a traditional IRA, rather than a Roth IRA.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 2 -- November 22, 2024

Locator: 44385CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.

Drinking game bingo: “hyperscalars” — CNBC — 11:33 a.m. CST.

WMT vs TGT: past six months, the definition of divergence --

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
Longer version here.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- November 22, 2024

Locator: 44384CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.

Cramer: astounded by the amount of money "flowing into this market." And, then take a look at this: MMFs.

Musk: the cover of Time and the cover of The Economist, both featured Elon Musk, not the president-elect.

EVs: not a good week for EVs.

Susan Stroud: link here. Today, it's North Dakota soybeans. Website.

OKLO: chart of the day. Energy Secretary-select sits on the OKLO board.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
Longer version here.

Not A Good Week For EVs -- Will "2024" Go Down As The Year EVs Died? Is This The Year The Music Died? November 22, 2024

Locator: 44383EVS.

Critically important: one needs to separate the EV market from the EV-battery market.

The EV market and EV battery market have diverged. Diverged.

I think some folks are forgetting this.

But, the grid (think AI / data mining / crypto) is going to need obscene amounts of new electricity. And storage.

Utilities have been buying "storage" as fast as they can raise cash to do so. That will continue. Next, those industries that rely on electricity won't trust the grid: they will build their own power plants and they will -- except possible nuclear power plants -- will make batteries part and parcel of their factories to insure uninterrupted power supply when the grid occasionally -- but ultimately -- fails. From the very beginning, I've always considered Tesla a battery company. I was half-right. Tesla is a battery company and a software company.

The fact that Northvolt declared bankruptcy is a bigger story than most folks realize. I would argue that investors no longer see the EU as a growth story: it's not going see the amount of electricity demand that will be seen in the US.

Link.

Updates

November 22, 2024: will "2024" go down as the year that the EV fad died? The IEA is predicting a glut of oil next summer and the price of gasoline will plummet. So, we have a one-two punch. Consumers don't want to buy tethered vehicles, and the price of gasoline will continue to fall once Trump assumes office.

November 22, 2024, Northvolt EU EV declaring bankruptcy: link here and here, The NYT. And there's more: link here. Hard to believe, the blog first noted this company a little over a year ago: link here. Lasted almost as long as Matt Gaetz. LOL.

Original Post

DigitalTrends: link here.

Northvolt EU EV declaring bankruptcy: link here and here, The NYT.

Jeep: prices have gone through the roof; buyers are bailing; dealers are furious; how not to run a auto manufacturing business. Link here.

Auto worker wipeout, MSN: link here. Why car companies are cutting thousands of jobs.

Cheap EVs: google hertz's tesla fire sales continue -- full article here --

EVs: by now, we should be further along. Link here.

“Issues like charging infrastructure, high upfront costs, and potential lifestyle disruptions continue to deter many from making the transition,” Accenture says.

Meanwhile, charging infrastucture has continued to expand this year in the U.S., led by networks such as ChargePoint, Tesla’s SuperCharger, and Electrify America.

Wholesalers such as Costco and Walmart are adding EV-charging capacity. But the race to make EVs more affordable is facing hurdles now that Chinese-made electric vehicles face stiff tariffs in both Europe and America. [And the article doesn't even mention EV credits are likely to go away under Trump.]

Trump to end EV credits?

EVs -- US -- October, 2024 Data

Locator: 44382EVS.

Link here.

EVs:

InsideEVs;
Elektrek.

Brutal.

Nine Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over The Weekend -- November 22, 2024

Locator: 44381B.

NFL: The Cleveland Browns (2 - 8) shock the Pittsburg Steelers (8 - 2).

S&P 500: MRO out. Texas Pacific Land will joint S&P 500. Link here.

US Senate: Pennsylvania -- GOP upsets Dems. David McCormick defeats Bob Casey in Pennsylvania. The New York Times reporting was not only lacking, but incredibly unbalanced in its reporting. Fun to read and spotting the writer's spin.

EVs: US -- October, 2024. Painful.

Road to Germany: Brutal.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.46.

Sunday, November 24, 2024: 38 for the month; 88 for the quarter, 615 for the year

40662, conf, CLR, Sandhill 4-24H,
40352, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 5H,
40105, conf, Enerplus, Devils Canyon 147-97-17-20-6H,
40029, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 4H,
40028, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 3H,
37937, conf, BR, Parrish 4B MBH,

Saturday, November 23, 2024: 32 for the month; 92 for the quarter, 607 for the year

40586, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Harris Federal 2-31H,

Friday, November 22, 2024: 31 for the month; 91 for the quarter, 606 for the year

40675, conf, CLR, Carpenter 7-13HSL,
40585, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Harris Federal 5-31H,

RBN Energy: efforts to restock SPR complicated b life-extension program.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories have been climbing over the past year as the Department of Energy (DOE) advances plans to replenish it following the record 180-MMbbl drawdown after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But DOE officials have said its refilling efforts are complicated by upgrades at three of the four SPR storage sites. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the scope of these “life-extension” projects, the completion timetable, and how it might drag out restocking efforts.