Thursday, September 3, 2020

Enerplus With Nine New Permits; Thirteen Permits Renewed -- September 3, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1060635633

Nine new permits, #37819 - #37827, inclusive --

  • Operator: Enerplus
  • Field: Mandaree (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • Enerplus has permits for a 9-well Fox pad in NWNE 10-149-93; 412' FNL and around 2200' FEL, Mandaree oil field

Two permits canceled:

  • QEP: two Moberg permits in McKenzie County

Thirteen permits renewed:

  • Oasis (5): five Pederson permits in McKenzieCounty
  • Petrogulf Corp (4): four Three Tribes permits in McKenzie County
  • XTO (3): three Carus State Federal permits in Dunn County
  • Enerplus: a Wallaby permit in McKenzie County

Enerplus Fox Pad Proposed

Three producing wells in this drilling unit:

  • 20978, 634, Enerplus, Red Rocks 149-93-10AH, Mandaree, t12/11; cum 189K 7/20;
  • 20499, 708, Enerplus, Fox Ridge 10-21H, Mandaree, t12/11; cum 223K 7/20:
  • 20977, 776, Enerplus, Morrison 149-93-10AH, Mandaree, t12/11; cum 305K 7/20;
The "Fox" pad:
  • 37819,  loc, Enerplus, Troop 149-93-10B-15H-LL, Mandaree,
  • 37820,  loc, Enerplus, Skulk 149-93-10B-15H, Mandaree,
  • 37821,  loc, Enerplus, Canidae 149-93-10B-15H, Mandaree,
  • 37822,  loc, Enerplus, Fennec 149-93-10B-15H, Mandaree,
  • 37823,  loc, Enerplus, Sly 149-93-10B-15H, Mandaree,
  • 27824,  loc, Enerplus, Vulpes 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree,
  • 27825,  loc, Enerplus, Kit 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree,
  • 27826,  loc, Enerplus, Renard 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree,
  • 27827,  loc, Enerplus, Swift 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree,

US Productivity Rate For 2Q20 Surged 10.1%; Number Of Hours Worked By Americans Declined By Largest Amount Since Government Began Collecting Data More Than 70 Years Ago -- September 3, 2020

 This story was reported by Rick Santelli over at CNBC first thing this morning:

U.S. productivity rose at a 10.1 percent rate in the second quarter as the number of hours worked declined by the largest amount since the government started compiling the data more than 70 years ago.

Two thoughts immediately come to mind:

  • amazing how much "fat" is in our employment numbers (interestingly enough, to the best of my knowledge, there were no cuts in federal employees);
  • unlike his earlier prognostication about jobs, in this case ex-president Obama would probably be correct if he said, "most of these jobs are not coming back"-- at least not any time soon;

So, how did the market finish?

  • Dow: down 807 points -- let's just say, down 800 points; down almost 3%;
  • S&P 500: down 125 points; down 3.5%;
  • NASDAQ: down 600 points; down 5%
    • AAPL: down 8%; P/E at 37; about where it was when the split was announced; still slightly over $2 trillion market cap
    • TSLA: down 9% during the day; another 6% after hours; P/E remains over 1,000;

With a productivity surge like that, is another stimulus bill needed? The "market" is probably reading the same tea leaves. 


Following volution during the  "transition" across the Permian Mass Extinction -- when life on earth came close to being wiped out 252 million years ago -- is extremely difficult for me to sort out. On land we had amphibians, the earliest reptiles (turtles), and mammal-like reptiles. How those that survived the extinction and crossed over is very, very difficult for me to keep straight. 

On top of that, and it seems to some extent, somewhat separate, is the history of the reptilian skull at that time. One very "gross" method of separating reptiles at that time was by examining the presence or absence of the opening or opening ("holes"; fenestrae) in the skull behind the eyes. 

Anapsids: no temporal openings behind the eyes; this group includes the turtles.

Diapsids: two temporal openings; this group includes / included dinosaurs, crocodiles, birds, tuataras, lizards, and snakes.

Synapsids: continued controversy whether these were reptile-like mammals or mammal-like reptiles. Richard Dawkins in The Ancestor's Tale called them mammal-like reptiles, but was on the fence, ready to call them reptile-like mammals. My favorite book, Evolution: The Whole Story, refers to them as reptiles, as far as I can tell, in most cases. 

Wiki, not surprisingly, seems to have the most current thinking -- synapsids were neither reptiles nor mammals, but "stem" mammals or "proto-" mammals, having evolved from one branch of reptiles. If one follows this "classification" we have reptiles and synapsids at that point in evolutionary history. There were three waves of synapsids (Dawkins called them mammal-like reptiles): pelycosuars (the most recognizable being the Dimetrodon which went extinct before the Permian Mass Extinction); the therapsids; and then the cynodonts, as close to mammals as possible without being called mammals.

The fourth wave: the mammals, a continuation of the continuum from synapsids to therapsids to cynodonts to mammals. 

This is all in flux, but it helps me put a framework together when working with the granddaughters on evolutionary biology.

EVs: I've Run Out Of Fingers And Toes -- Add Jeep Wrangler To The List -- September 3, 2020

 I've run out fingers and toes to keep track of all the new EVs.

Now add Jeep Wrangle, mostly to help FCA quit paying Elon Must for environmental regulatory credits.  This is a hybrid -- sort of buried in the story if one does not read closely.

Fiat Chrysler's Jeep brand is starting to offer gas-electric hybrid and eventually full electric powertrains across its lineup.

The company rolled out the first of them Thursday, a plug-in Wrangler to go on sale in the U.S., Europe and China early next year.

The main reason driving the new offerings likely is FCA's obligation to meet fuel economy and pollution regulations in Europe, China, and the U.S. or face stiff fines or steep costs to buy electric vehicle credits from companies like Tesla.

The Wrangler 4xe can go 25 miles on electricity before a 2-liter turbocharged four-cylinder engine takes over. Drivers can choose to have an engine-powered generator recharge the batteries (at a higher fuel consumption rate), although it would take about 2.5 hours at 45 to 55 mph (72.4 to 88.5 kilometers per hour) to fully replenish them.

Railroad Bridge Fire Temporarily Interrupts Rail Access To Beulah, ND, Energy Sites -- For BNSF, Basin Electric -- A Speed Bump -- September 3, 2020


A wooden railroad bridge on the BNSF Railway track near Beulah destroyed by fire August 31, 2020, has left Basin Electric without rail access to three of its energy production and product facilities.

The Spring Creek crossing bridge, located less than two miles west of Beulah, is on a rail line that connects Dakota Gasification Company, Antelope Valley Station and The Coteau Properties Company’s Freedom Mine to the main rail line.

The eight-mile section of railway is the only way to move product in or out of the three facilities. BNSF Railway officials have told Basin the railroad will replace the bridge — they’re deciding whether to build a concrete and steel version or rebuild the wooden structure.

The railroad says a new bridge could potentially be in place in two to four weeks, depending on structural damage to the old bridge.

Much more at the link.

Bridge probably needed replacement anyway.

Reason #36 Why I Love To Blog -- Follow The Money -- September 3, 2020

I posted this on August 31, 2020:

Hamas: no longer getting financial support from Saudi Arabia --

Now this today: from The Malaysian Reserve, September 3 --
From Pakistan to Lebanon, Saudi Arabia is scaling back its famed chequebook diplomacy, a longstanding policy of splashing petro-dollars in exchange for influence, which observers said had yielded few tangible gains. 
For decades, the wealthy kingdom funnelled billions in aid to its allies — and to its enemies’ enemies — in a bid to bolster its position as an Arab powerhouse and leader of the Muslim world. 
But as plummeting demand has sapped its oil revenues, the kingdom is rethinking old alliances that Saudi observers said had swallowed their cash while offering little in return, at a time when its quest for regional supremacy is increasingly challenged by rivals Iran, Turkey and Qatar. 
A swathe of regional countries, from Jordan and Lebanon to Egypt, Palestine and Pakistan, have been the top recipients of Saudi aid over the past decade, said Middle East expert Yasmine Farouk. 
“The dual economic impact of the coronavirus and low oil prices, however, may lead Saudi Arabia to restructure and rationalise its aid,” said Farouk, from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The country is already seeking to end the perception of being ‘an ATM’.” 
The kingdom has contributed billions to Lebanon’s post-civil war reconstruction, but it has voiced frustration over its failure to rein in Hezbollah, a powerful group backed by its arch-enemy Iran. 
Saudi Arabia will not continue to pay Hezbollah’s bills, and the Lebanese have to shoulder their responsibilities towards their country,” Saudi columnist Khalid Al- Sulaiman wrote recently for the pro-government Okaz newspaper. 
States that have traditionally benefitted from Saudi largesse, including Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine, have “already seen instances in which aid was frozen, decreased or cut off”, she added.

Yup: there was a reason Hamas is suing for peace. 

CNBC Analysts And Talking Heads Are So Much Happier Today -- The Dow Is Down 700 Points -- 11:45 A.M. CDT -- September 3, 2020

Indices and stocks of interest:

  • Dow: down 700 points
  • S & P 500: down 115 points
  • NASDAQ: has given up all the week's gains; down almost 600 points;
  • TSLA: down 8%
  • AAPL: down 7%

Yesterday the headline from CNN: stock market at all time highs and rising -- the stock market "proves" that Joe Biden will win the election. 

It will be interesting to see the CNN headline today. LOL. I guess folks are terrified that Joe Biden will win the election.

Huge opportunity to buy. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Yesterday I mentioned the analysts and talking heads on CNBC seemed confused / frustrated -- they did not understand the market. Today, the affect has turned 180°. They seem happy, almost giddy, ready to buy, and now know that their instincts all along were accurate. 

What a great country. 

Eraserhead just came in and erased all those gains for the year.

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- The Gap Widens Ever So Slightly -- September 3, 2020

Link here

It is ever so slight, but it appears the gap between the current fill rate and the five-year maximum has widened ever so slightly. 

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #346 -- September 3, 2020

Jobless: an incredibly good report, especially the productivity report. Immediately after the news, the major indices:

  • Dow 30: from 50 points down to 10 points down; the Dow 30 now goes green -- whoo-hoo!
  • S&P 500: down only 18 points
  • NASDAQ: was 140 points down; still 140 points down;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

EPD: a 54% upside -- SeekingAlpha contributor. Archived.

EPD operates one of the largest networks of midstream, processing, and energy storage assets in North America, with 50K miles crude oil and natural gas pipelines, 22 natural gas processing facilities, 24 fractionators, and 19 deep-water docks, handling NGLs (natural gas liquids), PGP (polymer-grade propylene), crude oil, and refined products. It also has a marine transportation business that operates primarily on the Intracoastal Waterway systems.

BRK-B: with AAPL falling a bit yesterday, what did BRK-B do? Up 1.43%; up $3.13; closed at $221.68. 

Fox Business has introduced a new portfolio tracker (I don't care) and a real-time market app (awesome).

Batteries: Bill Gates-backed vehicle batter supplier to go public through SPAC deal. Why I love to blog: see this post from July 13, 2020.

LEGO: one of my favorite companies. We have a LEGO minifigures and bricks store just down the street from where we live. I make it a point to stop in once every week to see what's new. I seldom walk out without purchasing something.

I've blogged about these stores before. They are quite amazing. These minfigures and bricks stores, I believe, are now owned by the parent company, LEGO. I am amazed that the minifigures have become a "thing." The average price of a minifigure seems to run about $8. One can buy many at $5, $7, and $8. My upper limit is generally $12 -- the most I will spend on a minifigure. Having said that, there is a minifigure now selling for $70. It's tempting.

There are many, many minifigures that sell for upwards of $30. But I digress.

This is what has really gotten me excited. Apparently, LEGO has recently agreed to make its new products available through these "re-sale" stores. This week, the minifigs and bricks store down the street from us will receive its first shipment of "new" products being released by LEGO. Up until now, one had only three sources for new LEGO products:

    • on-line;
    • the rare LEGO brick-and-mortar store, found only in a handful of cities; and,
    • LEGO Land in San Diego;
  • Other links to LEGO on the blog regarding the minifugure stores:  

LEGO: posted earlier -- Lego sales surge. LOL. Link: 

Tea With Corky

Notes From All Over -- The Pre-Market Edition -- September 3, 2020

Fake news? A meme? Factoid? Fact? The story continues.

  • demand for moving companies in NYC is "insane" -- ZeroHedge:
  • New York exodus accelerates amid pandemic as "some" residents head south -- link at Fox Business --;
  • CNBC live video of downtown NYC: it's a ghost town;
  • lead story on CNBC's "Squawk Box" this morning: the NYC real estate reset
    • the move from NYC to Florida is accelerating
    • began with SALT two years ago; Covid-19 accelerating the trend
    • from high-tax states (NY, NJ, CT, CA) to low-tax states (FL, TX, NV)
  • I wonder if Walter Cronkite would give us honest reporting on this one?

Robinhood under investigation
. Okay. No dog in this fight. But Robinhood did convince me to start buying "pizza by the slice" over at Schwab. 

First purchase: 0.1 share of AMZN. It's my understanding you cannot buy a slice of BRK-A on Schwab but you can on Robinhood. I don't know for sure. I do know an individual who bought a "dollar's" worth of BRK-A. He made two cents overnight. I don't know if he still has that holding.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

California heat: another heat wave set to set California electric grid (and this is well before we even have any significant EV penetration in that state. Link over at SeekingAlpha:

  • In order to ensure adequate power supplies during the weekend, the California Independent System Operator orders transmission line operators and power plants to postpone work that would take their assets offline. 
  • Excessive heat is expected to smother the state, with temperatures seen reaching 107 degrees Fahrenheit (42 Celsius) in Los Angeles Saturday and 106 degrees in Sacramento on Sunday. 
  • Potentially relevant tickers include PCG, EIX, SRE. 
  • The heat wave two weeks ago that saw temperatures reach as high as 110 degrees in parts of the state forced grid operators to initiate rolling blackouts that affected millions. 

United Airlines: to furlough 16,000 employees in October. Fox Business: Like other countries, are we moving toward state-owned airlines (by another name)?

Huge moat: Kansas City Southern takeover bid led by Blackstone; shares spiking this morning; corroborates my early posting about investing: lightning strikes often, without warning; stay fully invested, my friends. LOL.

Spam and salt: NPR weighs in.

So, we've learned a lot today: mostly that you can buy "pizza by the slice" at Schwab.

One Well Coming Off The Confidential List -- Hess -- September 3, 2020

First things first: US Army Corps of Engineers: status report on DAPL -- From a reader:

If you want to read the current correspondence, skip to page 2310.  The first several thousand pages of attachment are Corps' boilerplate manuals.

The correspondence is so very indicative of the parties' positions.  Hasselman just can't help himself - he has to take a swat at the proposed expansion.
Other first things first: Lego sales surge. LOL. Link: 
Other first things first: PGA FedEx Championship begins today. Expect two things:
  • lots of advertising; NBC desperately needs the revenue;
  • lots of video clips of Tiger Woods: about the only think that will keep "fair-weather fans" tuned in
Right on cue: no sooner than I post the above note on the PGA tournament, and we see an open letter of "thanks" to Tiger Woods from Phil Mickelson on CNBC thanking Tiger for all he's done for the sport  -- reminding all of us, of course, Tiger won't be playing in this tournament. 

DAPL, DAPL, who needs the DAPL? All for DAPL stand up and holler. ET adds takeaway capacity in the Permian. Link here.

Energy Transfer reported Tuesday that it has completed its Lone Star Express Pipeline expansion project on budget and ahead of schedule.

The new 352-mile (566-kilometer), 24-inch-diameter pipeline adds more than 400,000 barrels per day of natural gas liquids (NGL) capacity to the Lone Star NGL pipeline system, Energy Transfer noted in a written statement. The company added the expansion runs from Winkler County, Texas, to the existing Lone Star Express 30-inch pipeline at the Morgan Junction in Bosque County, Texas, south of Fort Worth.

Now we know. WTI fell yesterday despite a huge decline in inventories. '

That didn't make sense ... until one looked at refining runs. Wow. Refiners dropped well below their operating capacity; again, below 80%. Of course, this was somewhat of a one-off, due to the much-hyped Hurricane Laura. But WTI continues to fall. Approaching the $40-support level.

Ouch. OPEC basket drops again, link here: $45.03.

Saudi Foreign Exchange Reserve
: pending.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1160635633

One well coming off the confidential list -- Thursday, September 3, 2020:

  • 36002, drl/A, Hess, AN-Mogen Trust-153-94-2932H-5, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 85K 7/20;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

RBN Energy: potential recontracting dilemma for gas supply-push pipelines.

The U.S. natural gas pipeline sector is entering a challenging period for recontracting a major chunk of its capacity. The numerous pipeline systems built during the early years of the Shale Era’s midstream boom were anchored by 10-year, firm shipper contracts, mostly with producers, making them so-called “supply-push” pipelines. Many of those initial contract periods have begun to roll off, exposing pipelines to producer-shippers’ renewal decisions based on current fundamentals. Shippers typically expect substantially lower rates for a renewal contract, because much of the pipeline has been paid off through depreciation. 
But there’s another issue that is becoming more important: shipper recontracting may not happen for market reasons. For pipeline owners, this is happening at the worst possible time. The market is in turmoil and facing ongoing uncertainty. Gas production is down, demand from LNG export facilities is in flux, and regional supply-demand dynamics are shifting. As if that weren’t enough, new, large-diameter pipelines out of the Permian now nearing completion will reshuffle gas flows around the country. And other transportation corridors that not long ago were bursting at the seams and feverishly expanding to ease constraints are now at risk of being underutilized. Today, we discuss the factors that together may present significant risk for pipelines approaching the proverbial recontracting “cliff.”

The Blogger App -- September 3, 2020

 I love the "Blogger App." 

Having said that, it has gone under some major revising to make it more user-friendly to "mobile" users, but, wow, it's gotten very, very chaotic. Just saying.

Gasoline Demand Increases Slightly Despite Hurricane Laura, But Will Drop Again In Next Week's Update -- September 3, 2020

 EIA's weekly "gasoline demand" graph is linked here.

Wow, This Should Keep Me Busy Over The Weekend, Nothing About The Bakken -- September 3, 2020

There are several interesting stories that explain a lot; the stories may or may not have "legs" as they say.

These are the "teasers." I will follow-up on them if the stories become a "thing."

1. Internal polling by the DNC appears to show that Joe Biden's campaign is imploding. Biden is now walking back:

  • his threat to shut down the economy again (a Fox Business link); and,
  • his threat to ban fracking

There would be no reason for "Hidin' Biden" to walk back those DNC platforms planks if his poll numbers were as good as CNN says. 

2. The Tesla meltdown is currently in currently in "correction" territory, but "not a bear market" for Tesla. It may be by the close on Thursday, September 4, 2020.

3. The ACLU breathless tweet regarding the Somalis who had appealed their conviction: the Ninth Circuit's affirmed that the lower court's decision was correct: the Somalis lose their appeal. The fact that this "landmark" case did not get reported by the mainstream media but instead was found on a single twitter tweet says it all. Despite what the ACLU tweeted, the story / legal opinion was a "nothing-burger."

4. Trump is going for the jugular by directing his departments to defund Portland, NYC, San Francisco, among others.. This suggests internal polling shows that Americans are fed up with the nightly videos of "mostly peaceful protests." The nightly looping of these videos on network nightly news reminds me when similar videos on CBS News With Walter Cronkite was the beginning of the end of the Vietnam War.

5. There's a much bigger underlying story regarding Trump's decision to ask state governors to provide background regarding decision to send Covid-positive residents back to their nursing homes upon release from hospitalization. The real story here goes back to the ventilator story and outright fraud

6. US Court Of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit breaks new ground ruling that student loans are now dischargeable under bankruptcy law. I will have no more to say about this case unless it ends up before the US Supreme Court.

7. Tokyo's 2020ne Olympics no longer look so "safe." Japan will make Covid-19 vaccine available to all Japanese for free. Last-ditch effort to save the Olympics.

8. Throwing in the towel. The Bistmarck Tribune, out of tune with its readers, will drop the Sunday edition, because, apparently, reading the Tribune's explanation, that's what readers want, despite the fact that the Sunday edition is the most profitable for the newspaper. I can't make this stuff up.

  • link here to The Bismarck Tribune; irony: the story is behind a paywall, so even if you want to read it, you can't unless you ave a $5 subscription; and, of course, you won't see all those ads that support the newspaper;

9. Federal, state, and local governments have been immune to furloughs, layoffs despite the economic lock down. That's about to change. NYC said it is likely to begin furloughs.

  • Los Angeles says it will begin layoffs:;

10. Nancy Pelosi cites entrapment.  Will probably sue.

11. The beginning of the end. And it always seemed so promising. LOL. JUUL. Not sure how Covid-19 is responsible for this but I always thought these huge contraptions with excessive "smoke" looked ridiculous by anyone holding them, especially the "fairer sex," (am I still allowed to say that?)

  • goes up in smoke; withdrawing from Europe, Asia; will focus on core areas in US; a Fox Business link;