Monday, November 16, 2020

Insurance Should Cover This -- November 16, 2020

Global warming modeling did not forecast this.  

For the most part, the winds were calm.

Inline image

Inline image

A Musical Interlude

I'm heading to bed. It's only 9:08 p.m. local time, but ti's been a long day. Emotionally.

Sophia and I have so much fun together. 

Earlier today her reading teacher was teaching her a new concept which I did not understand.

On the way home, I went over the concept with Sophia as I heard Ms Davis teach it, hoping Sophia could explain it to me. I asked Sophia, six years old, if she understood the concept. There was a pause, then, "Technically, no."

Technically? LOL.

Well, I guess she understood the concept better than I. I did not even understand it non-technically. LOL.

Anyway, I'm sitting her, watching Roy Orbison, "Black And White Night." Wow. So many great singers, but it seems so much goes back to Willie Nelson and Roy Orbison. 

Pretty Woman, Roy Orbison

Saudi Arabia To Issue Dollar-Denominated Bonds To Meet Obligations -- Particularly That Annual $75 Billion Dividend -- November 16, 2020

At one time Saudi Arabia (and Russia) threatened to "de-link" Mideast petro dollars (i.e., riyals and rubles) and US dollars. Now, Saudi Arabia is in such dire straits, the kingdom has announced it will issue US-dollar-denominated bonds to make ends meet. From The WSJ, a story easily found everywhere:

Saudi Aramco said Monday it aims to issue a U.S. dollar-denominated bond, as the cash-strapped oil giant cuts jobs, considers asset sales and reviews its expansion plans.

Saudi Arabian Oil Co., as the company is officially called, is selling debt even as low oil prices hurt its ability to generate cash for its biggest shareholder, the Saudi government. It is seeking to meet a pledge made last year to pay $75 billion in annual dividends.

Aramco in a statement said it hired Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Inc., Citi, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley, among others, to arrange investor calls on Monday ahead of a debt sale. The oil company, which didn’t disclose pricing or how much it will raise, said it plans a multi-tranche bond offering with potential maturities of three, five, 10, 30 and 50 years. The bond issue is likely to raise billions of dollars, and the pricing and size would depend on market conditions, Aramco added.

Saudi is one  of the most strict countries when it comes to following the Koran. 

From the internets:

To charge interest from someone who is forced to borrow to meet his essential consumption requirement is considered as an exploitative practice in Islam.
Charging of interest on loans for productive purposes is also prohibited because it is not an equitable form of transaction.

When It Comes To Tabulating DUCs, There Seems To Be A Disconnect Between What Writers Write And What The Data Shows -- November 16, 2020

A reader provided a spreadsheet of all the major shale plays in the US with the number of drilled wells, completed wells, and DUCs.

The reader tells us how to access this data (see first comment):

The historical DUC spreadsheet from the EIA is linked on the sidebar of the monthly drilling productivity report, with the Excel file titled "DUC data (aggregated by region)"

He noted the same issue I've noted. The data itself does not reflect what is being reported. 

He noted this:

I keep seeing these reports like the oilprice one from last month we discussed.

Oil operators get DUCs in a row, adding fracking crews to boost output - US frackers are bringing back equipment even as oil prices languish around $40 a barrel in a bid to boost production and tap into a backlog of drilled wells left uncompleted (DUCs) when oil prices crashed earlier this year.The number of active hydraulic fracturing fleets has climbed by nearly 50% since mid-September to 127, according to data from consultancy Primary Vision, outpacing a roughly 17% jump in the number of active drilling rigs over that same period of time.

Do these people know something the EIA doesn't, or is it all just based on scuttlebutt?
I posted the data below for the Bakken. There was just too much to post for all major US shale plays but it was all similar. We're not seeing DUCs being completed any faster now than they were being completed in the past. 
In fact, for the Bakken, the number of DUCs are fairly stable, if anything increasing, rather than decreasing as some would suggest.  The reader supplied data for all months in the years noted below. I only provided the January / December in each of the years. Note the gap between 2014 and 2017. 

I have tracked North Dakota DUCs since May, 2016, and that data is posted at this site.





Jan 14




Dec 14




Jan 17




Dec 17




Jan 18




Dec 18




Jan 19




Dec 19




Jan 20




Mar 20




Jul 20




Oct 20




Here's The Permian Data
Spoiler Alert: Same Story





Jan 14




Dec 14




Jan 17




Dec 17




Jan 18




Dec 18




Jan 19




Dec 19




Jan 20




Mar 20




Jul 20




Oct 20




Notes From All Over -- November 16, 2020

There's not enough news to justify another blog entry this early, but ..... I'm curious .... what are futures doing? Is there a chance the Dow will go over 30,000 tomorrow? Let's see where futures stand tonight. Generally, the 6:00 p.m. futures reflect the earlier closing action and don't reflect the trading for the next day. That we won't see until about 6:00 a.m. tomorrow.

But let's check: CNBC futures, 6:35 p.m. ET:

  • Dow: pretty much flat; up less than five points
  • S&P mini: ditto
  • NASDAQ: up about 68 points

Over at CNN Business, 6:37 p.m. ET:

  • Down: flat at 0.0000 change
  • S&P: up 2 points, i.e., flat
  • NASDAQ: up 57 points

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

My two cents: for those who have held shares in publicly traded energy companies through this debacle over the past four years, now is not the time to sell. I wouldn't recommend buying any energy shares right now except in peculiar situations, but I wouldn't recommend selling if you held out this long hoping for a turnaroud -- I guess that makes my general recommendation for energy shares, a hold. 

Repeating: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

In A Week Or So, Students Will Be Leaving Universities, Colleges For The Rest of 2020 -- Sports Commentator -- November 16, 2020

On a sports talk show it was just said that students will not be returning to their colleges or universities after the Thanksgiving break. One exception: the basketball players. The athlete-students will be coming back and the 2020 - 2021 college basketball season will be played. The commentator said there is just too much money in college basketball to give any thought to college basketball not being played this season.  

The big question, will students come back in 2021?

As Alice Cooper said, "school's out for Covid, school's out forever."

School's Out, Alice Cooper

Chinese Flu Watch

Deaths / per capita, link here, set filter to "yesterday."

North Dakota continues to rank 9th where it has been for quite some time. The state is unlikely to move any higher for awhile, if ever.

South Dakota, however, has moved from 23rd (recently) to 19th today. South Daota should have no trouble moving up the list, getting ever closer to herd immunity.

Ramblings On AirBNB Going Public -- November 16, 2020

 Having just spent a couple of nights in an AirBNB this is quite cool. AirBNB is filing to go public

You know how folks reserve a block of hotel rooms for family and friends for a family reunion, wedding, memorial service, or graduation. In an era of Chinese flu, the AirBNB concept is so much better. 

With an AirBNB one rents the entire house, not just a single room. AirBNBs range from a single room (very, very rare) to dozens of rooms (rare, but more common than a single-room AirBNB. 

I suppose the size of a typical AirBNB is four to seven rooms with capacity for eight to twenty-one folks. And in an urban area there will be more than several AirBNBs. So, next time you are hosting a family reunion, wedding, memorial service, or graduation, consider lining up one, two, three or as may AirBNBs as you might need. You will be rooming with your own family and your own friends, as opposed to who-knows-whom you will be sharing a hotel hallway if you book a wing of hotel rooms. 

We just stayed in an AirBNB in Tucson, Arizona, the Wright House on 6th Avenue South. It was awesome. Five rooms. One to three people in each room. The wedding was held in the same house, and the reception was likewise held in the same house. Once we got there, no driving for 72 hours for this gala. And so much more ambience than a sterile Holiday Inn.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

I don't know if AirBNB will be good investment but it will be fun to watch.

By the way, the only thing lacking at the AirBNB where we stayed in Tucson: no Keurig coffee machine in the downstairs kitchen / dining room area. 

So, anonymously, I sent the hostess, Maja, a Keurig coffee machine. According to Amazon, it was delivered to the house on November 12, 2020. LOL. True story. Anonymously sent. She will love it. I included a note that suggested she market the Keurig as a free carton of coffee -- 72 K-cups -- any party that rents the AirBNB for two nights. 

Don't Tell Me I'm Not Being Tracked

Wow, I love this technology. I posted the Keurig - AirBNB note about an hour or so ago.

The first piece of spam I get in my mailbox:


Good, bad, or indifferent, I have not received a targeted ad for Viagra in decades (?).  I would rather have targeted ads than randomly generated ads based on my gender, age, ethnicity. I would be getting a lot of ads for lefse grills. I don't need any more. I already have one.

By the way, that coffee ad above was perfect for me. I checked out Angelino's. They offer K-cups for 30 cents/cup. Starbucks is 83 cents/cup. Some well-known names offer K-cups for 29 cents each. It's easy to comparison shop on Amazon. All prices above were taken from the Amazon site. I always have Starbucks available because some guests expect Starbucks, but for me, I pay 29 cents/K-cup. Imagine -- less than 30 cents for a cup of coffee.

BR With Three New Permits -- November 16, 2020

Monday Night Football: a 3 - 5 teams takes on a 5 - 4 team. One of the teams: the Vikings. I'll tune in for the start. Curious how long I last.


  • 6:00 p.m.: "Jailhouse Rock," 1957
  • 8:00 p.m.: "The Diary of Anne Frank," 1959 (will put the current pandemic in perspective); 3 hours long;

Meteor shower: this will probably be the best show of the night

Back to the Bakken

Director's Cut: should be released tomorrow, Tuesday, November 17, 2020, later afternoon. 

ICYMI: MDU increased its dividend for the 30th consecutive year. This time from 20.75 cents to 21.25 cents, or, assuming I did the math correctly, half a cent. If you own a million shares of MDU, you should receive ... one million x 0.005 = $5,000; record date, December 10, 2020, and payment date, January 1, 2021. What's not to like. I have somewhat less than a million shares of MDU. About a million less. I've held MDU off and on over the years, but generally have not been well rewarded. I guess my market timing is off. I didn't even do well with MDU during the height of the Bakken boom.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1457635538

Three new permits, #37974 - #37976, inclusive --

  • Operator: BR
  • Field: Little Knife (Dunn)
  • Comments: 
    • BR has permits for three Concord wells in section 10-147-97;
    • the wells will be sited 285' FSL and between 1694' and 1784' FEL

Six permits renewed:

  • Hess: six EN-Davenport permits in Mountrail County;

They're Reading The Blog -- November 16, 2020

From Yahoo!Finance today:

Morgan Stanley equity strategists are raising their S&P 500 forecast for next year, predicting earnings growth as the key force pushing equity prices higher.

“We extend our S&P 500 price target horizon to December 2021, and raise our base case estimate to 3,900 from 3,350,” wrote equity strategist Michael J. Wilson.

His team sees “a return to pre-Covid-19 levels of GDP by 2021 and returns to well above prior peak through 2022.”

On November 9, 2020, I wrote on the blog:
Market: the Dow was up a thousand points today -- rounding, of course. I haven't looked at the market in weeks (months?) and I haven't followed any news for similar length of time. I would not have known about the massive move had a reader not sent me a note. Wow. I don't have a dog in that fight any more: I don't follow the market and I'm not watching the news. The reader said it was due to good news, Pfizer and "the vaccine." In fact, I listened to that report while driving from Tucson, AZ, to Dallas, TX, yesterday. Excuse me but that was the most bland report I've ever heard. Much could be said, but it wasn't the "vaccine" news (actually non-news) that drove the market. I don't have a dog in this fight any more, but there's more to this than the Pfizer report. If my hunch is correct, we will see another 2,000 points on the upside in the Dow over the next couple of months. 

Using the 10:1 // Dow // S&P 500 rule: the new MS estimates easily exceed another 2,000 points on the Dow.

And no inflation in sight. 

Just a lot of debt. Which, apparently, no longer matters.

Good luck to all.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Thinking Out Loud -- November 16, 2020

October 1, 2020:

  • BRK-B: 212
  • DFS: 58.91

Today, November 16, 2020:

  • BRK-B: 231
  • DFS: 78.55

Appreciation since October 1, 2020:

  • BRK-B: 9%
  • DFS: 33%

I'm getting tired of reports that Warren Buffett can't find anything better than his own stock to buy. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

And, yes, I bought DFS. I had too much BRK-B. Had to diversify. LOL.

For The Archives
Dow Sets Record


November 24, 2020: all-time high; breaks through 30,000. New number, around 30,100.

Original Post

"Dow" soars to a record high. Yahoo!Finance link here. It looks like "29,934" is the number to beat going forward -- not the close, but an intraday high.

The Dow rose more than 450 points, or 1.5%, topping its previous record intraday high of 29,933.83 from Nov. 9. The S&P 500 also increased, while the Nasdaq hugged the flat line. Shares of airlines, cruise lines, hotels, and restaurant companies surged anew as the latest vaccine data suggested consumers might return more enthusiastically to these businesses. 
Moderna’s stock jumped more than 9% to a record high shortly after market open. 
Moderna became the latest major drug-maker to announce upbeat data for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, building on hopes that an effective inoculation will soon be available.

Later in the day, the New York manufacturing index came in a bit lower than expected, but it didn't phase the market a whole lot. 

Flush With Cash

From Bloomberg at Yahoo!Finance:

Eight months into the pandemic, Americans’ household finances are in the best shape in decades.It’s a seemingly incongruous thought, what with the widespread business lockdowns earlier in the year and coinciding surge in unemployment -- and it certainly doesn’t apply to all families equally. But it points to just how strong the U.S. economy was going into the virus outbreak, and how powerful the combined monetary and fiscal response was from the Federal Reserve, Congress and the Trump administration.

Record-low mortgage rates, reflecting the ultra-easy Fed policy, have prompted a steady wave of refinancing and allowed homeowners to reduce monthly payments or tap equity. Americans are also holding more cash, helped in part by stimulus from the government. [And huge amounts of money not spent on vacations, traveling, dining out, car maintenance, unnecessary doctor appointments and elective surgery, and Starbucks.]

Households’ debt service burdens have eased considerably, too, a complete departure from the 2007-2009 financial crisis that required years to mend. That in turn bodes well for consumer spending and its ability to power the economic recovery through a period marred by a violent spike in virus cases.

The only question? How fast can Biden and the squad screw this up? Maybe we need another 4 - 6 month lockdown. LOL. Just imagine how flush with cash we would all be. 

From Last Summer
Getting The Charcoals "Going"

Love Hearing From Readers! LOL!

CDC's Weekly MMWR Report On Influenza-Like Illnesses To Include Chinese Flu -- November 16, 2020

Link here

Influenza-like activity remains BELOW the national baseline

Hardly a map of concern.

Everything is now lumped together.

Wow, this must be cost-effective. And all those unnecessary out-patient visits vs fluids, Tylenol, and adequate rest.

Notes From All Over -- Wall Street Edition -- November 16, 2020

Headlines from WJS. No links.

  • Moderna's vaccine 94.5% effective;

  • US stock futures jump
  • PNC to buy US arm of Spain's BBVA for $12 billion; 2nd largest bank deal since Lehman
  • Walmart retreats around globe to focus on e-commerce
  • US crop prices are rising, and China is buying (this was predicted for quite some time)
  • China economy gathers steam; setting stage for a strong end to the year -- Covid--19? What Covid-19?
  • Space X launches four astronauts into orbit
  • US exporters running out of containers -- wow!
  • Saudi Aramco planning US-dollar bond to plug funding gap (link here)
  • Covid-19 cases surging across fly-over country -- looks like "seasonal flu" map as winter sets in
    • "seasonal flu" no longer an issue
    • all "flu cases" and orthopedic injuries now lumped together as Covid-19
  • Dustin Johnson wins the Masters (link here); a month ago he tested positive for Covid-10
    • number one co-morbidity for Covid-19, it seems: being an athlete, or Boris Johnson
  • Tiger Woods: 10 on a par 3.

When I get back from my nap, I'll link the most recent issue of the CDC''s MMWR

Notes From All Over -- Pre-Market Edition -- November 16, 2020

NYC: I haven't watched CNBC in months, but when I last watched, I noted, and have said many times on the blog, the one story CNBC is not reporting is the "mass" migration out of NYC. My hunch: CNBC is still not reporting that story. But the story doesn't die. I would have thought, that by now, this story was pretty much done, but apparently not. A google search proves me wrong. The very first hit is a CNBC story: "Leaving NYC: high earners in finance and tech explain why they left the "world's greatest city." 

Wow, LOL. I've never been there but my hunch, the world's greatest city is probably Singapore, or Hong Kong. Or perhaps Tokyo, which I have visited.

[London] Daily Mail]: more than 300,000 New Yorkers have fled the Big Apple in the last eight months -- one day ago -- link here. One of the world's greatest newspapers. Many great memories of running down to the local village store on Sunday mornings, buying three newspapers, real bacon, fresh bread, and running back up to Pateley Bridge to enjoy a long Sunday morning reading. I still remember how "significant" the English pound felt in my hand. It had the feeling of really being worth something. But I digress.

Forbes, three weeks ago: is NYC's real estate market really tanking? I asked three experts for the "brutal truth." Link here. I did not read this: as soon as I saw "experts" in the headline, I lost interest. I've learned that "experts" in business magazines "talk their book," as they say.

WSJ, two weeks ago: parents pulling more children out of NYC public schools. Link here.  Families moving children to private schools, Hamptons seek less confusion and more in-person learning. For two working parents, that only makes sense.

[NYC] Globe Street, two weeks ago: New York rents fall 15.3% since March (2020). Link here.

Business Insider, three weeks ago: low rents in Manhattan and San Francisco spotlight urban exodus trend. Link here

Zero Hedge

These are the Zero Hedge stories that caught my interest today. 

Too much time to link them individually, so I will link ZeroHedge and the reader can scroll through the headline stories.  

PNC buys BBVA's US arm for $12 billion; 2nd biggest banking deal since collapse of Lehman. And, yes, this is a big, big deal. WSJ link here. BBVA is Spanish owned.

Syria exit in progress? US convoys seen withdrawing from northeast Syria to Iraq. If accurate, it means Syria is now under Russian control, but I've long lost the bubble on this Mideast chess game. Or would "Twister" be a better analogy?

Germany wants to avoid "yo-yo shutdown. Wants to destroy economy once and for all. Planning for six-month "severe lockdown." Yeah, like that will work. When they all come out of their bomb shelters, the virus will still be there and the vaccine won't.

Wow, I hope Trump does declassify the whole portfolio. What is John Brennan so worried about?

Most exciting and this is just one reason the Biden presidency will be huge -- the admirals and generals will be back in charge. US Navy pushes ahead with 500-ship plan to "counter China and Russia" now that Esper has been fired. The Pentagon will run circles around the Big Man.

Could "We" See 30,000 This Week?


  • 94.5% effective -- isn't that, like, 100% effective? That's historic.
  • results far exceed expectations
  • now, where did I put that bottle of champagne?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

30,000: guaranteed, if:

  • vaccine announced:
  • $4 trillion stimulus bill in play

When reality hits, get out of the way. We might just see one of the biggest corrections ever. 

But for now, enjoy the ride to the top.


  • Dow up a staggering 523 points -- Dow futures at 29,933.
  • NASDAQ:up 10 points
  • S&P 500, already at a new record, now up another 45 points

Fully invested? And to think Warren Buffett couldn't find anything to buy last month.

Of interest:

  • AAPL: down $.44 (this is the bellwether ticker today: if AAPL turns positive today, it's going to be a huge market for the bulls)
  • SRE:
  • T: up slightly; still below $30
  • JNJ: up 1.3%; trading at $151.86
  • DFS: up 2.5%; trading at $78,5
  • UNP: up 1.5%; up $3.00; back to $206.42, just short of its all-time high;
  • ENB: finally, seeing some love; up 1.5%; still under $30
  • EPD: wow, completely unexpected, up2.6%; trading at $19
  • BRK-B: up 1.34%; up $3; trading at $230;
  • BA: up 4.4%; up over $8/share
  • BK: up 2.3%; up almost a buck
  • WMT; to hit an all-time high today

Cable Television Is Expensive

But wow, bang for buck, I'm really, really impressed with Spectrum television. 

On every Apple device in the apartment -- desktop, laptop, iPad, iPhone -- all seamlessly work with Spectrum.

And now that I no longer go to Starbucks, the money I save there, helps cover the cost of Spectrum. Not going to restaurants pays for the rest of Spectrum.

Meanwhile, so far, I'm not impressed with Apple TV+ but that's just me.

Monday, November 16, 2020 -- Get Ready For A Wild Ride -- A Lot Happening This Monday Morning

First things first: focus on fracking posted. Link here. Note lede:

  • Global oil supply in October was short by 2.5 million bopd despite rising production

Shell: to cut production at its largest refinery in the world by 50%.

Oil prices pre-market trading:

  • WTI: up 2%
  • OPEC basket down 1%

OPEC basket, link here: yo-yo; down again:

Back to the Bakken


  • Slawson, perhaps one of the most conservative, most successful independents, family-owned, private drillers in the Bakken has two active rigs (as reported by NDIC) -- for me, this is huge:
  • MRO: at three active rigs, as reported by NDIC; again, huge development. Later: that turned out to be a head fake. One rig coming up; one rig coming down. Slawson has one rig; and MRO has two rigs, same thing (one was coming up, one was coming down -- November 17, 2020.]

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1657635538


  • MRO (3)
  • CLR (2)
  • WPX (2)
  • BR (2)
  • Hess (2), but one is drilling SWD well
  • Slawson (2)
  • Petro-Hunt
  • Oasis
  • Midwest AgEnergy Group, LLC (it sure is taking them a long time to drill one well)

And just like that, drilling stopped. One well coming off confidential list (actually two but I'm not interested in #37380, a CCS science project)

RBN Energy: physical gas flow constraints, volatility arise at Henry Hub, part 2. Archived.

With the rise of LNG feedgas demand in southern Louisiana, physical natural gas flows at Henry Hub have been climbing. As such, volumes moving through the U.S. benchmark pricing location are increasingly affected by swings in LNG feedgas deliveries, as well as in the gas supply flows into southern Louisiana that serve that demand. Those impacts have become particularly evident in recent months as nearby LNG export capacity utilization went from a trough this summer due to cargo cancellations, to being erratic during late summer and fall as hurricanes disrupted marine traffic and facility operations, and, in more recent days, to being at full bore at most facilities. In conjunction with brimming storage and pipeline maintenance in the area, this has meant more operational constraints and volatility in flows and pricing at the hub. Today, we continue our series on the changing dynamics in and around Henry Hub. 

This is Part 2 of our updated analysis on Henry Hub gas flows. As we said in Part 1, Henry, which is encompassed within Vermilion Parish, LA, has numerous distinctions that give it the benchmark status in the U.S. natural gas market: it’s been the center of the gas spot-trading universe for 30 years; it’s the delivery mechanism for the third-largest commodity futures trading instrument in the world — the CME/NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures contract; and, after decades of being the basis of domestic gas deals, spot and futures prices at the hub also now serve as the index for U.S. LNG export contracts.